Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 – the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.

I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?” This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.

Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,627 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. It’s actually standard practice for Morgan to expand the net to 14+ when phone polling on attitudinal questions, presumably because phone polling is expensive and they want as big a sample as they can get. On this occasion, they have published figures both inclusive and non-inclusive of non-electors where the questions were deemed not to relate to party politics.

  3. If you take the numbers, add 27, divide by the time of day, subtract three-fifths of bugger all, split the difference and round to the nearest 10 you get a result of 90:10 to Labor.

  4. As Mumble pointed out, you can ignore anything after Q4 re Climate Chnage

    Q4 – “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?”

    How can Morgan seriously ask that before they ask whether the carbon tax is a good idea or not? I’m outraged.

  7. [If you take the numbers, add 27, divide by the time of day, subtract three-fifths of bugger all, split the difference and round to the nearest 10 you get a result of 90:10 to Labor]

    I see Nostradamus has come back to visit as well.

  8. Funny how different types of pasta take different times to cook. Will accept jokes about throwing pasta at wall.

  14. For those who keep popping up suggesting new jobs for John Menadue – he was born in 1935 and so will be 76 this year. While I’m not being ageist and suggesting he couldn’t do these jobs, I suspect his preference might be to enjoy his retirement rather than plunging headlong into the fray once again.

  16. Cedric Conan and Nostradamus have reappeared all we need now is Steven Kaye.

    If he turns up, we can sure it must be day release for the Pollbludgers’ purged.

  17. victoria@65

    Based on this poll, Abbott wont be going anywhere anytime soon!

    What I don’t understand is how Abbot manages to afford 742 phone lines on a mere LOTO salary – perhaps he took out another mortgage?

  18. [The average amount of spirits and pre-mixed drinks consumed has also dropped to 2 litres, down from a record high of 2.26 litres in 2007-08.

    The drop follows the 2008 introduction of the alcopop tax, which raised the price of pre-mixed drinks by about 30 cents to $1 in an attempt to curb teenage binge drinking.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/03/3235243.htm?section=justin

    Does any one remember the hysterical campaign against the govt increasing the tax on alcopops?

  19. Here’s a suggestion for Labor MPs: follow Kevin Rudd’s lead, and promote the positive benefits of the BER in your local electorates.

  20. [Oscar

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    victoria@65

    Based on this poll, Abbott wont be going anywhere anytime soon!

    What I don’t understand is how Abbot manages to afford 742 phone lines on a mere LOTO salary – perhaps he took out another mortgage?
    ]

    Menzies Housse – and eveery exclusive private school in the Country.

  21. Just had a quick read of the Morgan website page on this poll. Although the voting intention result is reported above the results for the other questions, there doesn’t appear to be a statement that it was asked before those other questions. I presume William is operating from some knowledge of Morgan’s standard methodology when he says it would have been asked first but I find it curious that this doesn’t seem to be stated. If someone has read the page more intensively than me, they may be able to correct my impression. Also I thought I saw earlier, either on this thread or the earlier one, a statement that Morgan had recently sacked his previous phone polling workforce. I can’t find it now, but perhaps it’s been deleted because it was inaccurate and possibly defamatory.

  22. Oscar

    All I know is that the political momentum is favouring the govt, and yet Abbott is leading in the polls.

  23. WeWantPaul 41

    its because labor are shallow screaming hypocrites. If what is going on now with refugees was being planed by JWH every labor support would be screaming from the rafters like they did for the pacific solution. Now we have Gillards Live Trade to asia and deathly silence from the protest class of the Howard years.

    Gillard has demonstrated she is willing to do anything to fix the Boat people issue as long she does not copy Howard, even sending kids to a Asia where we have no say how they are treated. Add in “there will be now carbon tax in the government i lead” and its not hard to see why people lack respect for Gillard and Labor

    I tell you its great sport watching both the greens and Libs take the high ground on ether side of Labor on this issue.

  24. We haf bad news und gut news:

    Lyndal will be talking to Scott Morrison on Capital Hill

    Blythe Duff returns in Taggart at 8:30 on ABC.

  25. [evan14

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    Here’s a suggestion for Labor MPs: follow Kevin Rudd’s lead, and promote the positive benefits of the BER in your local electorates.
    ]

    Day release from Menzies House Evan for being on good behaviour re this morgan poll ? 🙂

  26. 52/48 on Monday night Newspoll, 58/42 two/three days later ?

    Deep breath needed, the trend is your friend !

    54/46 is the trend so until shown other wise. That is the go.

    My say,

    Keep the faith. Labor voters were out enjoying themselves when the poll was taken !

    Only 300 or so polls to go until the next election.

  27. In the circumstances of the Morgan Poll, this is so timely 🙂

    [Being stressed has predictable consequences: a pessimistic outlook and a loss of interest in what are normally pleasurable activities.

    According to researchers from Newcastle University, England, it is no different for the humble honey bee.
    Their research, published online today in the journal Current Biology, shows for the first time that an invertebrate can exhibit similar physiological and behavioural changes to humans who are anxious or depressed.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/03/3235092.htm?section=justin

  28. [rummel

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    WeWantPaul 41

    its because labor are shallow screaming hypocrites. If what is going on now with refugees was being planed by JWH every labor support would be screaming from the rafters like they did for the pacific solution. Now we have Gillards Live Trade to asia and deathly silence from the protest class of the Howard years.

    Gillard has demonstrated she is willing to do anything to fix the Boat people issue as long she does not copy Howard, even sending kids to a Asia where we have no say how they are treated. Add in “there will be now carbon tax in the government i lead” and its not hard to see why people lack respect for Gillard and Labor

    I tell you its great sport watching both the greens and Libs take the high ground on ether side of Labor on this issue.
    ]

    Get back to work working those phones on 2GB.

    Before Singo workchoices you.

  32. [What I don’t understand is how Abbot manages to afford 742 phone lines on a mere LOTO salary – perhaps he took out another mortgage?]

    And I don’t understand how he can afford to pay all those shock jocks at all those talkback stations to whistle Liberal for him 24/7.

  33. [Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    Imagine if you merged the Canberra Times and the Fin Review into a daily politics/economics/public affairs powerhouse broadsheet]
    So agree!

  34. [Tabitha ESJ]

    VP, if they turn up as well then we’ll know there’s been a mass break-out from Pollbludger prison!

  37. Rummel,
    I’m impressed.
    Those good christian rednecks that wanted to turn the boats around (even the ones with children on board) or sink a few for good measure , are now being consistent and not hypocritical and having a love in with those que jumping reffos….the live trade to Nauru no problem.
    Don’t you just luv em.

  38. Ah, memories.
    http://www.barnabyjoyce.com.au/Newsroom/MediaReleases/tabid/74/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/545/The-Great-Alcopops-Swindle.aspx

    [The Great ‘Alcopops’ Swindle]

    Barnaby is his usual incoherent style claiming the sky would fall in. Apparently the Bundaberg Distilliery was to close down upon the passing of the alcopop tax. Can any Qlders confirm whether this happened?
    http://www.barnabyjoyce.com.au/Newsroom/MediaReleases/tabid/74/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/936/ALCOPOPS-VOTE.aspx

  39. [Libs take the high ground]
    only because they had to crawl out of the swamp momentarily in order to take a quick breath. 😀

    Victoria
    [All I know is that the political momentum is favouring the govt, and yet Abbott is leading in the polls.]

    I’m no pseph but there’s been 12 months of relentless hammering of the government so I wouldn’t expect any dramatic turn around for awhile. Two weeks of the coalition finally being questioned over some of their positions hardly compares.

  42. [fulv that was fonzie]

    I don’t think he ever made the jump from Bryan Palmer’s site to here. He participated on the OzForums site for a while.

  43. [87

    arunta

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    Rummel,
    I’m impressed.
    Those good christian rednecks that wanted to turn the boats around (even the ones with children on board) or sink a few for good measure , are now being consistent and not hypocritical and having a love in with those que jumping reffos….the live trade to Nauru no problem.
    Don’t you just luv em.
    ]

    Only cos their omnly Dogwhistle is about to be silenced 🙂

    Genious Labor 🙂

  44. Bernard goes to town on the latest MDB effort.

    I quote the last para at the risk of Crikey suing, hmm, Crikey (thanks, Bilbo):
    [The clash between mining and agriculture, and the communities the latter supports, is only going to get worse and governments have already been too reactive in curbing the insatiable demands and negligence of mining companies.]

  46. arunta

    Stoping the boats to prevent death on the rocks or at sea is a good idear to me. Increasing our refugee in take is also another good thing to do.

  47. I think we should take the poll at face value , no point denying the results.
    58-42 is the result Morgan got so let it be…..if you consider the previous few results in Qld, NSW marginals , it seems pretty consistent to me in spite of the intervening weeks.

  50. arunta

    We may well be in agreement with good christians, however a lack of religious belief should not green light the export of refugees to Malaysia for a good whipping

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