Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 – the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.

I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?” This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.

Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,627 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [Stoping the boats to prevent death on the rocks or at sea is a good idear to me. Increasing our refugee in take is also another good thing to do.]

    So if the Govts policy succeeds in this aim you will support it?

  2. [a lack of religious belief should not]
    I thought “a good whipping”, or worse, was part of the Roman Catholic creed. Auto da fe, anyone?

  3. AJM, there’s a report on Roy Morgan’s sacking of call centre workers in 2008 here. That voting intention questions must be asked first is pretty much rule number one of how to conduct an opinion poll. Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section today published a snippet from somebody who had been called as part of this poll who was making the very complaint about the carbon tax questions that is being made here, and it appears to suggest the question order was as normal (“I was asked questions about who I would vote for in a federal election, who I voted for previously and also about the carbon tax”).

  4. [export of refugees to Malaysia for a good whipping]

    Did you realise that judicial caning in Malaysia is voluntary? If you do not want to be caned you can stay in prison longer?

  5. Hmm:

    [

    Western_PatriotWestern Patriot

    Senator Eggleston even apologised for his “racist” reference to Cameron’s Scottish background #meow #auspol

    6 minutes ago

    »

    Western_PatriotWestern Patriot

    Senator Alan Eggleston, whose supposedly racist reference to Cameron’s Scottish background sparked his tantrum: @pilbaraboy #meow #auspol

    42 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    Western_PatriotWestern Patriot

    NSW Labor Senator Doug Cameron blows up at WA Liberal Senator Alan Eggleston, accusing him of racism http://twaud.io/rTPQ #meow #auspol

    1 hour ago]

  6. confessions
    .
    “Does any one remember the hysterical campaign against the govt increasing the tax on alcopops?”
    .
    When was any campaign against the government not been hysterical ?

  7. I have had a good look but cannot find any reference to the framework of the policy Fraser put in place during the 70’s in response to the Viet. influx.

    Was it much different to what the current policy proposes ?

  8. ruawake

    “So if the Govts policy succeeds in this aim you will support it?”

    Yes, as long as wherever they are sent they are treated = to the pacific solution or better. At the moment Malaysia is not on the same planet let alone the same draft required for my support.

    I am also happy with the 800 to 4000 number. If we can prevent the boats from hitting the rocks and pick up already classified refugees im all for it and will praise Gillard IF she pulls it off.

  9. vp
    [I want “I’m no … but …” banned.

    Nothing personal, Think Big.]

    I think Ted Bailieu is your man for that!
    You’re right however – gets massive overuse – apols

  10. Rummel,
    Your boys wanted to turn unseaworthy boats back to sea away from australian waters and away from asylum seeker status.
    You know “keep the numbers down..we stopped the boats rhetoric”.
    Now that they have poisioned the well, they want to do nice….however I appreciate that your boys are dirty that Labor is winning the cruelty stakes.
    However will agree that on this issue both parties are shameful.

  11. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    why the fibs are so upset about caningrevealed:

    They pay top dollar for it- cant have the hoi poloi enjoying a good whacking,eh what!
    ]

    Funny how on Laura Norder the Fibs on Talkbsck salivate over “Singapore” and how the Cane is effective etc for the yoof.

    Hypocricy thy name is Liberal.

  12. We’ve heard from a few floggers on this site, but I’m interested to hear from or about the floggees.

    Has anyone actually seen or heard one, or of one, except in the wet dreams of the floggers and in the febrile rantings of the OO and ABC?

  13. [That was a laugh, before I read the second sentence.]

    Thats how judicial caning in Malaysia works, the judge will sentence you to say 3 years jail or 6 strokes of the rattan, it is upto the person what combination they desire. Each stroke is equivalent to six months jail.

    Nobody has to endure judicial caning unless they approve. Sharia caning is different but not as brutal.

  14. [Funny how on Laura Norder the Fibs on Talkbsck salivate over “Singapore” and how the Cane is effective etc for the yoof.]

    OK, why was that asylum seeker in Malaysia being whipped?
    Has anyone asked?

  15. Go Coalition!

    Oh how awesome would it be if these numbers were repeated in Nielsen and Newspoll 😀

  16. GetUp! said it has no plans to campaign against the deal.

    Well it they cant campaign against the Live Export of People, Jens campaign to bring back the abc to its charter is dead in the water… unless of GetUp is just the millitent arm of the ALP because which one suspects.

  17. [OK, why was that asylum seeker in Malaysia being whipped?
    Has anyone asked?]

    Surely a judge could not have found him (and it is only males) guilty of something?

  18. Cuppa
    I don’t believe this poll one bit.
    Generally, moi errs on the side of caution & takes the poll results on face value.
    This has the whiff of push polling.

  19. VP #133

    Thanks. 🙂

    I saw the headline and I had to make an appearance.

    Hopefully BoltA mentions this result onn the Bolt Report so momentum can build to get Lanbors numbers even lower.

  20. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Valium with a dose of scotch is a good sleep remedy for about 4 hrs

    If you wake up.]

    at the moment it is working
    3 weeks now till moving and when that is over intertube web pages stuf:)

  21. Dee,

    The “attempt to disseminate propaganda”, as William put it, does seem unorthodox activity from a polling company.

  22. Dee
    .
    When the margin of error is way bigger than any movement you are trying to measure it is like telling someone the length of a piece of string in millimeters using a ruler marked only in centimeters.

  23. Thanks William – was just curious but not necessarily suspicious
    [AJM, there’s a report on Roy Morgan’s sacking of call centre workers in 2008 here. That voting intention questions must be asked first is pretty much rule number one of how to conduct an opinion poll. Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section today published a snippet from somebody who h…………………………………..]

  24. [John! Missed ya!]

    vp – he couldn’t hack the distance over the last few years, poor love! but here we are taking the bad as well as the good.

  25. [at the moment it is working]

    If you stop breathing because your CNS has been sedated it won’t be working and neither will you. Dump the valium please. 🙁

  26. back to politics
    Labor is stuffed at the moment and unless they get over irrelevant shit like” meow scandal” they will lose the next election.

  27. I’m sure I saw somewhere that the main reason for an asylum seeker to be caned in Malaysia is if they enter the country and don’t register with the authorities. Given that the ones to go under the Australian Government’s scheme will be handed over officially, I don’t think caning is very likely in their case. Perhaps it’s also used for people working illegally but from what I’ve read the Malaysians pretty well turn a blind eye to that.

  28. [Joe6pack

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    back to politics
    Labor is stuffed at the moment and unless they get over irrelevant shit like” meow scandal” they will lose the next election.
    ]

    bilbo says you talk bullshit.

    Leave Politics to asdults 🙂

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