Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll shows little change on the previous result from a fortnight ago. It again presents the poll blog headline writer with a difficulty in showing a huge disparity between the two-party results according to respondent allocation (54-46 in the Coalition’s favour) and by the generally favoured method of allocation according to the previous election result (51.5-48.5). On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 36 per cent, the Coalition is up a point to 45.5 per cent and the Greens are down one to 12 per cent. The poll combines results from the previous two weekends of polling, covering a sample of 1746.

The first rumblings of preselection action for the current federal electoral cycle:

• Michael McKenna of The Australian noted last month that Mal Brough has been “working the party hierarchy and branches” with an eye to succeeding Peter Slipper as member for Fisher. Slipper’s chances of hanging on to LNP preselection, which were presumably already slim after his acceptance of the government’s offer of the Deputy Speaker position after the election, are said to have vanished altogether after he conducted a six-week tour of Europe and Morocco in the lead-up to the budget. This is said to have given powerful impetus to a party recruitment drive by Mal Brough, “who hopes to triple membership numbers and overwhelm Slipper’s local supporters”.

• The other development in Queensland LNP preselection jockeying is a push for Nationals veteran Bruce Scott, who has held the seat of Maranoa since 1990, to make way for Barnaby Joyce. Weighing in to support the idea was Niki Savva of The Australian, who said the existing plan for Joyce to cross the border and take on Tony Windsor in New England was looking an “increasingly bad idea”. By way of explanation, Savva offered that Windsor has been “sandbagging his seat” with “large dollops of lard from the Labor government”, a mixed metaphor crying out for a response from Bernard Woolley. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Richard Torbay, popular state independent member for Northern Tablelands and former Legislative Assembly Speaker, was “likely to contest the federal seat as an independent should Mr Windsor not stand”.

• Christian Kerr of The Australian reports a flood of membership applications has been received in Phillip Ruddock’s electorate of Berowra, as part of a move by “factional forces linked to the conservative Catholic group Opus Dei” who hope to control the preselection upon Ruddock’s retirement. Liberal sources speak of 88 applications in three weeks, of which “many have direct links with Opus Dei through the Tangara School for Girls and Redfield College and their parent organisation, PARED, or Parents for Education”. Ruddock himself however reportedly hopes to be succeeded by the factionally unaligned Julian Lesser, Menzies Research Centre director and 2008 preselection candidate for Bradfield. To this end he is resisting the recent membership encroachment, seeking to block the applications of brother and sister Christian and Sam Ellis, who respectively ran against Ruddock as Family First candidates in 2010 and 2007. The first hints of rising Right power in the electorate came in 2009, when there was talk of either Hunters Hill councillor Richard Quinn or former Young Liberals president Noel McCoy assuming the seat with backing from Right potentate David Clarke.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports a preselection battle looms between Victorian Liberal Senators Helen Kroger and Scott Ryan for the second position on the ticket at the next election. In 2007, Kroger was elected from the second position and Ryan from the third, but Ryan has since risen above Kroger on the pecking order by virtue of attaining a shadow parliamentary secretary position. Both have traditionally been associated with the Kroger-Costello faction (Helen Kroger being the ex-wife of powerbroker Michael Kroger), but both of its principals are now said to exist above the fray of factional politics.

• Jessica Wright of the Sunday Age reported last week that Attorney-General and Barton MP Robert McClelland had been told by “factional organisers” he should step aside to avoid a “messy preselection brawl”. An improbable sounding line-up of possible successors has been mentioned around the place, including Paul Howes, Morris Iemma and Mark Arbib (the latter two named by the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader). Howes at least has since taken a step back, which sources say resulted from a “widely held view in the national executive that he had been tainted in the eyes of voters over the Rudd coup”.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports on a “conga line” of 11 candidates hoping for Liberal National Party preselection in Fairfax, current member Alex Somlyay having long ago made it clear the present term would be his last. The only one covered in the article was Peter Yeo, a former AFL and SANFL who became a quadriplegic after a fall in 2002.

Post-NSW election detritus:

• Labor vacancies in the NSW Legislative Council, created by the retirements of Eddie Obeid and John Hatzistergos, have been filled by Walt Secord, a former staffer to Kevin Rudd and Bob Carr, and Adam Searle, former mayor of Blue Mountains. Searle in particular has had a complicated journey to parliament: originally associated with the “soft Left”, he won the backing of the Right for the Blue Mountains preselection before the 2007 state election against “hard Left” rival Naomi Perry, but the situation was defused after the party drafted Rural Fire Service chief Phil Koperberg. He subsequently joined the Right during his bid to succeed Bob Debus as member for Macquarie, but he withdrew from the contest as it became clear the Left’s Susan Templeman would prevail (though in the event she was defeated by Liberal member Louise Markus). The anointment of Secord and Searle by the Right has caused outgoing Senator Steve Hutchins to quit the faction, apparently complaining it had become “little more than a job agency for party hacks” – though it may not be immediately clear why this appellation applies to them more than him.

• Pauline Hanson continues to pursue an appeal against her narrow defeat in the Legislative Council election. Her case rests on an allegation that “dodgy staff” deliberately misplaced 1200 votes, which was allegedly the subject of an email exchange between two officials at the NSW Electoral Commission. As AAP reports, these emails have been made available to Hanson via a Queensland construction worker who says they were forwarded to him by a girlfriend who works at the NSWEC, whom the mysterious construction worker is unwilling to identify. According to the ABC, Electoral Commissioner Colin Barry says “nothing has been shown to him suggesting the allegation has any substance”.

Miscellany:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has released a report into informal voting at last year’s federal election, at which the rate shot up to 5.5 per cent – 1.6 per cent higher than in 2007, and the worst result since voters were befuddled by the introduction of above-the-line voting in the Senate in 1984. Exactly half of the increase was accounted for by a doubling of ballot papers left entirely blank, from 0.8 per cent to 1.6 per cent. Many have blamed/thanked Mark Latham, who in his late-campaign report on 60 Minutes recommended voters do just that.

• Antony Green has published estimated margins for the Victorian federal redistribution, which he was unable to attend to at the time the boundaries were first published as they appeared in the middle of the election campaign.

• Draft boundaries for a Western Australian state redistribution will be announced next week. I’ll be having quite a lot to say about this soon, and hope to have estimated margins of my own published in fairly short order after the announcement.

• Former ACT Chief Minister Jon Stahope’s parliamentary vacancy in his seat of Ginninderra has been filled by Chris Bourke following a recount of the votes which got Stanhope elected in 2008. Bourke scored 323 votes to 247 for Labor colleague Adina Cirson. The other Labor candidate from the election, David Peebles, did not nominate as he has taken up a job as Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands.

• Canada’s Conservative government, which moved from minority to majority at last month’s election, is moving to reform the country’s Senate, a weakly empowered chamber which has hitherto been chosen by appointment. The plan is to choose by popular election members serving very long terms, of perhaps as much as 12 years, by a method to be determined at provincial level. Among the hurdles it faces are opposition from the government of Quebec, which is “concerned that elected senators would usurp provincial governments as the foremost representatives of their citizens”; opposition from those who believe the chamber should be abolished, which is apparently a constitutional impossibility; and legal issues resulting from variability in provincial rules for election.

• Malcolm Mackerras wrote last week that he was “quite confident in predicting there will be no by-elections during the current term”, since “Members of Parliament do not die these days”. I thought this rather a big call. The Sydney Morning Herald had this last year:

But what can be run through the abacus is the likelihood of one of the 150 MPs elected last month to the House of Representatives keeling over. And without sticking pins in any particular voodoo doll, the risk is high.

Story continues below According to Michael Sherris, professor of actuarial studies at the University of NSW, there is every chance Ms Gillard’s wafer-thin majority will be threatened with a byelection that would become an unwanted referendum on her government.

”I would be pretty confident there’s likely to be someone die in the next three years – what we don’t know is who it will be,” he said.

The average age of our new crop of MPs – both men and women – is a smidgin under 50, suggesting, said Professor Sherris, a 75 per cent chance one of the 150 will die in office, with cancer and heart disease the most likely killers. Body surfers among them will doubtless be directed to swim between the flags.

History tips the balance even more in favour of a state funeral. Professor Sherris points out that in Australia’s federal history there have been on average 1.5 deaths causing byelections in each Parliament.

Highlights from the latest Democratic Audit Update:

• Melbourne University Press will this month publish a book entitled Electoral Democracy: Australian Prospects, edited by Joo-Cheong Tham, Brian Costar and Graeme Orr, which will examine “pressing debates about the regulation of political finance, parties and representation in Australia”.

• Submissions are invited for the Victorian parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee’s inquiry into the November state election.

• The Queensland Parliament last month passed legislation imposing caps on political donations and electoral expenditure, and raising public funding of parties and candidates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

896 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. [I know he used to work for JH but is he still working for Abbott?]

    SK – I thought Textor worked for Abbott through the last election and in the SA election. Can’t be sure tho.

    He does occasionally have a piece in crikey.

  2. OzPol Tragic @ 678:

    I’m with you on that one.

    Far better for Labor’s prospects to keep team-Abbott in place than to bring new talent to the Opposition’s Front Bench.

    And even though the Opps. would have to dig deep, there must be some talent within their ranks, who must be quite concerned with the negativity of their leadership team.

    With that, off to town.

  4. [As well I really think people need to take a deep breath and ask themselves why is it assumed that 800 people will be transferred to Malaysia ? What happens if 800 do not arrive ?]
    Doyley agree that is exactly what the Govt is aiming for. Once the word gets around, and it is, Malaysia is where you will end up if you arrive, don’t try it. The boats have slowed to a mere trickle. This is what is causing the change of emphasis from Morrison, he knows the Malaysia threat is working and he desperately needs another angle to keep the kettle boiling.
    This cold hearted, political manipulator, will be the loser eventually, I back Bowen and the Govt to win this one, sooner rather than later.

    I noted someone earlier tipped Morrison as a future PM. God help us if that unlikely tragedy occurred.

  5. Kidette – bag of spanners
    A workmate from the UK used it once in my presence and I was most amused. He was talking about the production systems in a company we were working in.

  8. [Abbott is slowly a leader in search of a policy…]

    SK, Abbott doesn’t strike me as even bothering to look for a policy!

  9. LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
    [Federal Government will develop a White Paper for Cyber Security, examining what Australia needs to do to protect our interests online.]

  10. OzPol,

    This is what is causing them such a problem. When you hang your hat on “NO!” what have you got left? 😆

  11. [1. Has anyone heard whether the 4000 will be counted as part of Australia’s annual refugee intake? Or whether they are additional?]
    Additional is my understanding. It was announced that way.

  13. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Chamber of Commerce says the $19.40 increase to the min. wage is ‘excessive’ and should have been deferred for flood affected businesses.
    8 minutes ago

    in reply to ?
    Space Kidette
    @SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @latikambourke what is excessive is their level of greed.
    6 minutes ago via web]

  15. LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 minutes ago
    Chamber of Commerce says the $19.40 increase to the min. wage is ‘excessive’ and should have been deferred for flood affected businesses.]

  17. david, Doyley, Joffaboy

    I agree with you all. I am annoyed with people such as SH-Y who are making political capital out of being on the side of the AS but are actually interfering with the effectiveness of the “solution”.
    Everyone talks as of the AS are all poor and uneducated and I think there is evidence that they are not. They are often the ones with enough money to get out of their country and enough intelligence to work out the most effective way to find asylum. They are not evil, they are trying to do the best for themselves, and they are smart enough to do “whatever it takes”.
    If only, if only, the Coal had not politicised the whole thing.

  18. [1. Has anyone heard whether the 4000 will be counted as part of Australia’s annual refugee intake? Or whether they are additional?]

    I understand they will be additional to our annual humanitarian intake.

  19. ABC and Sky news both reported this morning as tho the ‘draft’ document LL had was a final one so I just had a read of the transcript because I thought Towle told Jones to disregard his treasured ‘draft’ as it was out of date. Sure enough ..

    [RICHARD TOWLE: Well, I think that the first point: you’re referring to a document, one of a large number of documents and exchanges that are part of a much wider negotiation. So I don’t think we should put too much weight on the particular draft that I think you’re referring to……..

    RICHARD TOWLE: Well, that’s why I say I don’t think it’s helpful to look at a document that’s really past its used-by date.

    We understand that the negotiations have moved a long way past that.]

    So, SK, your tweets are pertinent on more than the mincing poodle. Jones, ABC Breakfast and Sky totalling ignore Towle’s comments about the draft and therefor ignored his comments about working with the Govt. to get a good outcome.

  20. [BH
    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 10:53 am | Permalink
    Castle – your post re Abbott’s policy issue today is well put. How about enlightening the journo who wrote the story.

    Stupid idea to send it to ATO for it then to be sent to 3rd party. Would the ATO gain interest on the overnight money market? Does Abbott think the Govt. can make extra dosh?]

    I have been out of commission for some days and am only just catching up. I read about Abbott’s idea of the superannuation going to the ATO for distribution when the PAYE tax is forwarded.

    As it is something I have been advocating for years I am confused to read posters against the idea. My OH lost thousands to an unscrupulous employer as have quite a few others I know. There is also fact the Super payment can be held back for up to 3 month, costing a lot of people the interest which could have accrued in that time. The building industry and hospitality are 2 areas to suffer greatly in this way.

    There should be a direct accounting/correlation between tax collected and super paid.

    So why is the policy being knocked.

  22. lizzie
    .
    “Everyone talks as of the AS are all poor and uneducated and I think there is evidence that they are not.”
    .
    Exactly in all conflicts you will find that the educated,connected and well off are the ones that get out because they have the resources. The notion that a “real” refugee has to be dirt poor is quite odd.

  23. BH,

    The Oz annoys me but it is private enterprise. The ABC bent is exasperating. There should never be a bias, just plain straight reportage. Facts should rule on the national broadcaster.

  24. The ABC is reporting the Towle comments. Not sure about the other networks.

    [But Mr Towle says the deal is still under discussion.

    “We hope that the agreement will be judged on its final terms, not according to one piece of a part of a negotiation that has been going on for some months,” he said.

    “It’s no secret we have had some difficulties with part of the process.

    “That is why we have come back and said in our view we want to see some good clear protection standards for the people returned.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/03/3234623.htm

  26. [THE Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce says that in his view the Coalition’s ”direct action” policy is just as meaningless a ”gesture” for the global climate as Labor’s proposed carbon tax, but says the Coalition policy has the advantage of ”having other benefits, like improving the capacity of the soil”.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/coalition-climate-policy-just-a-gesture-says-joyce-20110602-1fizn.html#ixzz1OB4DETWs

  27. Msadventure,If routing it through the ATO means that the ATO can pay the missing contributions then chase the employer for the Commonwealth debt then that would provide some protection for workers. This in effect means the commonwealth would be underwriting super contributions and that may not go down too well with taxpayers.

  30. David – good on you. I listened so carefully to Richard Towle last night altho Jones tried the same tactic as he did with Bowen. Awful interview really.

    Towle seemed to be saying he thought Malaysia will be a good solution if they can strike the right balance between all parties. It will give UNHCR a good leeway to improve other areas if it works well.

    I want them all onshore but I’m a bit older and bit more realistic than SHY. It will not happen until there is bipartisanship altho in my dreams I see Labor just saying ‘bugg.r the lot of you, they’re all coming onshore’.

    In March 2010, when Morrison first began spouting his awful stuff, I put a tweet on my OH’s twitter –

    [@ScottMorrisonMP http://twitpic.com/1c2hms – I find this inhumane and sickening. Real action is bipartisanship]

    I remember, at the time, that a PBer posted it here and seconded it but I didn’t like to say I’d put it on. OH is not into being a tragic so I don’t do it any more.

    I found Morrison’s hypocrisy overwhelming this week and I can no longer bear to listen to a word he says.

  31. This in effect means the commonwealth would be underwriting super contributions and that may not go down too well with taxpayers.

    This is already the case to a certain extent – any significant cases of companies going under and employees losing super contributions will result in public pressure on the government to step in and assist in some way. I believe this has already happened a few times (wasn’t there something about a company associated with a relative of John Howard where the government stepped in and at least partially covered worker entitlements including super contributions or am I misremembering?)

    Regardless, I’d think given compulsory super is part of the public landscape now that a lot of Australians would think it reasonable for the government to guarantee those contributions … I kind of believe that myself.

    All in all it’s a minor thing, and one that may be worth supporting; I’m not going to express opposition to the policy just because it came from Mr Abbott’s mouth.

  32. Otiose

    I couldn’t understand why they rushed to diffuse Garnaut’s message.
    Hasn’t anyone in the govt or their advisors passed Communication 101? Or perhaps Getting the Message Out chap. 1? Or even PR for Dummies?

    [Indeed, even when Garnaut attempted to put some substance to the issue of compensation, demonstrating the adequacy of the available funds to do so, several ministers were sent out to dump on him, saying “he was just one input to the Government’s decision making process”, and “he doesn’t speak for the Government”.

    A continued vacuum was preferred. Tony please hit us one more time!]

  34. Bob Brown continues to fight the good fight. The Greens have set up a rapid response team to push back against shock jocks and the odious Uhlmann, who seems to have single-handedly killed the 730 Report, is particularly under attack.

    [GREENS leader Bob Brown has widened his attack on the media, slamming the ABC for “feeding straight off” other outlets and deepening his assault on The Australian.

    Senator Brown has used an interview with The Conversation website to launch a broadside at 7.30 political editor Chris Uhlmann, with whom he has clashed.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/bob-brown-widens-attack-on-media-to-include-abc/story-e6frg996-1226068260049

  35. MsAdventure – I’m sorry to hear about your problems with super but I don’t think sending it to the ATO is going to stop those employers who don’t send it at all or send it late.

    Would the ATO, meaning the taxpayer, then become responsible for those who don’t send the payment in.

    I think it should be up to the Super Fund to keep track of who hasn’t had money credited and seek an answer as to why it hasn’t been paid – if no satisfactory reply then report it to the Super Ombudsman or whoever. Easy in these days of computerisation.

    Private business should be accountable for super payments, not the taxpayer via the ATO.

  36. BH,

    If there was any problem with super payments it is that it should be made payable as per the business pay cycle. A business does not have to pay for three months. My attitude is that it should be made payable the same day you recieve your pay and be earning interest from that day.

  37. OzPol,
    [Has anyone heard whether the 4000 will be counted as part of Australia’s annual refugee intake? Or whether they are additional?]

    The 4000 intake will be over 4 years and therefore will increase our annual refugee intake by 1000 per year.

  40. Dio:

    Interesting use of language in that OO article. “Deepening his assault”, “clashed”, “savaging”, “attacked”. Those of us who saw both the Uhlmann interview and the exchange with the 2UE reporter saw someone constantly interrupted (hardly clashing), and a pleasant response from Brown to the reporter’s hysteria and misrepresentations.

  41. re super

    my son and his workmates had not had any super credited for over a year despite regular/persistent ‘cheques-in-the-mail’ type assurances- i advised ombudsperson – concluded successfully with that help – i suppose what i’m saying is that i haven’t thought it through yet as i can see both sides

  43. [PurePoison_Blog Crikey Pure Poison
    by GrogsGamut
    New tactic by News Ltd: pieces laughably claiming to be by Greens voters who’ve changed their minds. -LINK-]

    Kidette, we should start a “news” website and every article should be along the lines:

    “A minister in the opposition informed us that….”

    “A journalist high up in News Limited told us….”

    “An unknown source has confirmed the opposition is in trouble…”

    “An international journalist has raised doubts at Dennis Shanahan’s article on…”

    “ABC staff who wished to remain anonymous have confirmed of a right wing push…”

    etc etc

  44. I was a green voter but then there was this leech in a rainforest and long story short I hate trees and whales and vote for Tony who will save me from both

  45. [The ABC is reporting the Towle comments. ]

    confessions – after they got a few emails, I think. winky thing here

  49. [george,

    Too easy!]

    SK, me think so too 😉

    10 Pbers writing one article a week, and good SEO work, would see the articles hit in google on the 1st/2nd page – think about how that would undermine News Limited.

  50. The SMH is only out by a factor of 1000. What’s three zeros between friends?

    [The world’s oldest champagne, which spent about 170 years at the bottom of the ocean, may fetch as much as €100 million ($140 million) a bottle at auction.]

    [New York-based wine specialist Acker Merrall & Condit, which is running the sale, quoted Richard Juhlin, an authority on champagne, as saying the bottles might fetch €100,000, 10 times the minimum price of 10,000 euros.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/executive-style/top-drop/140m-for-a-bottle-of-champagne-20110603-1fjnf.html#ixzz1OBFMCmtr

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