Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll shows little change on the previous result from a fortnight ago. It again presents the poll blog headline writer with a difficulty in showing a huge disparity between the two-party results according to respondent allocation (54-46 in the Coalition’s favour) and by the generally favoured method of allocation according to the previous election result (51.5-48.5). On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 36 per cent, the Coalition is up a point to 45.5 per cent and the Greens are down one to 12 per cent. The poll combines results from the previous two weekends of polling, covering a sample of 1746.

The first rumblings of preselection action for the current federal electoral cycle:

• Michael McKenna of The Australian noted last month that Mal Brough has been “working the party hierarchy and branches” with an eye to succeeding Peter Slipper as member for Fisher. Slipper’s chances of hanging on to LNP preselection, which were presumably already slim after his acceptance of the government’s offer of the Deputy Speaker position after the election, are said to have vanished altogether after he conducted a six-week tour of Europe and Morocco in the lead-up to the budget. This is said to have given powerful impetus to a party recruitment drive by Mal Brough, “who hopes to triple membership numbers and overwhelm Slipper’s local supporters”.

• The other development in Queensland LNP preselection jockeying is a push for Nationals veteran Bruce Scott, who has held the seat of Maranoa since 1990, to make way for Barnaby Joyce. Weighing in to support the idea was Niki Savva of The Australian, who said the existing plan for Joyce to cross the border and take on Tony Windsor in New England was looking an “increasingly bad idea”. By way of explanation, Savva offered that Windsor has been “sandbagging his seat” with “large dollops of lard from the Labor government”, a mixed metaphor crying out for a response from Bernard Woolley. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Richard Torbay, popular state independent member for Northern Tablelands and former Legislative Assembly Speaker, was “likely to contest the federal seat as an independent should Mr Windsor not stand”.

• Christian Kerr of The Australian reports a flood of membership applications has been received in Phillip Ruddock’s electorate of Berowra, as part of a move by “factional forces linked to the conservative Catholic group Opus Dei” who hope to control the preselection upon Ruddock’s retirement. Liberal sources speak of 88 applications in three weeks, of which “many have direct links with Opus Dei through the Tangara School for Girls and Redfield College and their parent organisation, PARED, or Parents for Education”. Ruddock himself however reportedly hopes to be succeeded by the factionally unaligned Julian Lesser, Menzies Research Centre director and 2008 preselection candidate for Bradfield. To this end he is resisting the recent membership encroachment, seeking to block the applications of brother and sister Christian and Sam Ellis, who respectively ran against Ruddock as Family First candidates in 2010 and 2007. The first hints of rising Right power in the electorate came in 2009, when there was talk of either Hunters Hill councillor Richard Quinn or former Young Liberals president Noel McCoy assuming the seat with backing from Right potentate David Clarke.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports a preselection battle looms between Victorian Liberal Senators Helen Kroger and Scott Ryan for the second position on the ticket at the next election. In 2007, Kroger was elected from the second position and Ryan from the third, but Ryan has since risen above Kroger on the pecking order by virtue of attaining a shadow parliamentary secretary position. Both have traditionally been associated with the Kroger-Costello faction (Helen Kroger being the ex-wife of powerbroker Michael Kroger), but both of its principals are now said to exist above the fray of factional politics.

• Jessica Wright of the Sunday Age reported last week that Attorney-General and Barton MP Robert McClelland had been told by “factional organisers” he should step aside to avoid a “messy preselection brawl”. An improbable sounding line-up of possible successors has been mentioned around the place, including Paul Howes, Morris Iemma and Mark Arbib (the latter two named by the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader). Howes at least has since taken a step back, which sources say resulted from a “widely held view in the national executive that he had been tainted in the eyes of voters over the Rudd coup”.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports on a “conga line” of 11 candidates hoping for Liberal National Party preselection in Fairfax, current member Alex Somlyay having long ago made it clear the present term would be his last. The only one covered in the article was Peter Yeo, a former AFL and SANFL who became a quadriplegic after a fall in 2002.

Post-NSW election detritus:

• Labor vacancies in the NSW Legislative Council, created by the retirements of Eddie Obeid and John Hatzistergos, have been filled by Walt Secord, a former staffer to Kevin Rudd and Bob Carr, and Adam Searle, former mayor of Blue Mountains. Searle in particular has had a complicated journey to parliament: originally associated with the “soft Left”, he won the backing of the Right for the Blue Mountains preselection before the 2007 state election against “hard Left” rival Naomi Perry, but the situation was defused after the party drafted Rural Fire Service chief Phil Koperberg. He subsequently joined the Right during his bid to succeed Bob Debus as member for Macquarie, but he withdrew from the contest as it became clear the Left’s Susan Templeman would prevail (though in the event she was defeated by Liberal member Louise Markus). The anointment of Secord and Searle by the Right has caused outgoing Senator Steve Hutchins to quit the faction, apparently complaining it had become “little more than a job agency for party hacks” – though it may not be immediately clear why this appellation applies to them more than him.

• Pauline Hanson continues to pursue an appeal against her narrow defeat in the Legislative Council election. Her case rests on an allegation that “dodgy staff” deliberately misplaced 1200 votes, which was allegedly the subject of an email exchange between two officials at the NSW Electoral Commission. As AAP reports, these emails have been made available to Hanson via a Queensland construction worker who says they were forwarded to him by a girlfriend who works at the NSWEC, whom the mysterious construction worker is unwilling to identify. According to the ABC, Electoral Commissioner Colin Barry says “nothing has been shown to him suggesting the allegation has any substance”.

Miscellany:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has released a report into informal voting at last year’s federal election, at which the rate shot up to 5.5 per cent – 1.6 per cent higher than in 2007, and the worst result since voters were befuddled by the introduction of above-the-line voting in the Senate in 1984. Exactly half of the increase was accounted for by a doubling of ballot papers left entirely blank, from 0.8 per cent to 1.6 per cent. Many have blamed/thanked Mark Latham, who in his late-campaign report on 60 Minutes recommended voters do just that.

• Antony Green has published estimated margins for the Victorian federal redistribution, which he was unable to attend to at the time the boundaries were first published as they appeared in the middle of the election campaign.

• Draft boundaries for a Western Australian state redistribution will be announced next week. I’ll be having quite a lot to say about this soon, and hope to have estimated margins of my own published in fairly short order after the announcement.

• Former ACT Chief Minister Jon Stahope’s parliamentary vacancy in his seat of Ginninderra has been filled by Chris Bourke following a recount of the votes which got Stanhope elected in 2008. Bourke scored 323 votes to 247 for Labor colleague Adina Cirson. The other Labor candidate from the election, David Peebles, did not nominate as he has taken up a job as Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands.

• Canada’s Conservative government, which moved from minority to majority at last month’s election, is moving to reform the country’s Senate, a weakly empowered chamber which has hitherto been chosen by appointment. The plan is to choose by popular election members serving very long terms, of perhaps as much as 12 years, by a method to be determined at provincial level. Among the hurdles it faces are opposition from the government of Quebec, which is “concerned that elected senators would usurp provincial governments as the foremost representatives of their citizens”; opposition from those who believe the chamber should be abolished, which is apparently a constitutional impossibility; and legal issues resulting from variability in provincial rules for election.

• Malcolm Mackerras wrote last week that he was “quite confident in predicting there will be no by-elections during the current term”, since “Members of Parliament do not die these days”. I thought this rather a big call. The Sydney Morning Herald had this last year:

But what can be run through the abacus is the likelihood of one of the 150 MPs elected last month to the House of Representatives keeling over. And without sticking pins in any particular voodoo doll, the risk is high.

Story continues below According to Michael Sherris, professor of actuarial studies at the University of NSW, there is every chance Ms Gillard’s wafer-thin majority will be threatened with a byelection that would become an unwanted referendum on her government.

”I would be pretty confident there’s likely to be someone die in the next three years – what we don’t know is who it will be,” he said.

The average age of our new crop of MPs – both men and women – is a smidgin under 50, suggesting, said Professor Sherris, a 75 per cent chance one of the 150 will die in office, with cancer and heart disease the most likely killers. Body surfers among them will doubtless be directed to swim between the flags.

History tips the balance even more in favour of a state funeral. Professor Sherris points out that in Australia’s federal history there have been on average 1.5 deaths causing byelections in each Parliament.

Highlights from the latest Democratic Audit Update:

• Melbourne University Press will this month publish a book entitled Electoral Democracy: Australian Prospects, edited by Joo-Cheong Tham, Brian Costar and Graeme Orr, which will examine “pressing debates about the regulation of political finance, parties and representation in Australia”.

• Submissions are invited for the Victorian parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee’s inquiry into the November state election.

• The Queensland Parliament last month passed legislation imposing caps on political donations and electoral expenditure, and raising public funding of parties and candidates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

896 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 16 of 18
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  3. [Private business should be accountable for super payments, not the taxpayer via the ATO.]

    If an employer doesn’t pay or even is late paying, the ATO has responsiblity to collect it along with penalties, but it needs to discover the non payment by auditing or complaint. Most non-payments aren’t discovered until it is too late to discover it.

    Since business pays GST, income tax and other taxes regularly to the ATO on a single form it would be a good reduction in red tape to incorporate super into this. It has the advantage of protecting employees as the ATO knows immediately whether super is being paid or not.

  4. sohar
    from the Conversation with John Keane:
    […when I question them about why they work for The Australian, on each occasion, they’ve said to me: “Because it pays more money.”
    …
    I must say there’s three or four of them [journalists] each time, they signal and talk with each other, they come with a planned strategy and if they can get a phrase out of you that they think is suitable for critique the next day, they actually nod at each other, it is like they have got something in the bag.]

    And there you have it.
    Follow the money.

  7. [Since business pays GST, income tax and other taxes regularly to the ATO on a single form it would be a good reduction in red tape to incorporate super into this. It has the advantage of protecting employees as the ATO knows immediately whether super is being paid or not.]

    DrPhibes – how quickly does the ATO get on to an employer who doesn’t remit income tax payments? Is it almost instantaneous?

  8. I have cooked the kidleys cupcakes as a surprise for afternoon munchies. Anyone for coffee and cupcakes? 😉

  9. Lizzie,
    Interesting also to note Bob’s observations on the ABC feeding off Propaganda Unlimited and the Uhlmann interview.

  12. sohar

    I find it hard to believe that with all he knows about the way the media work, and what he thinks the future might be, he remains an optimist.
    Very interesting insights into some of the interviews. Thanks for the link.

  13. If an employer has not paid the compulsory superannuation then the ATO is the dept which which an employee goes to have it investigated because it is Federal law to pay the 9% so they have to get involved anyway.

    Part of the problem is the employers will write on the payslip haw much has been paid to the Super Co and then pass on the funds.

  15. sohar

    And the quote from Gina Rinehart’s father – “we’ll have to buy the media”.
    She’s s slow learner, but she’s getting there now 😀

  16. Hi Sohar at 758. I am glad Brown has highlighted this. I stopped listening to Tony Delroy (after about 14 years) when he started having Dennis Shanahan on his show to comment on politics. I cannot stand this type of interview – journalist on journalist, particularly when the so called expert interviewee has an agenda like Shanahans. So I switched to Phillip Adams, and who should appear but that other stooge Christian Kerr. The sooner there is a purge at the ABC to get rid of the rancid influence of Howard’s appointees and the deliberate cross polination of News Ltd editorialisation on MY TAXPAYER FUNDED BROADCASTER the better.

    Phew, I feel better now.

  17. Lynchpin,

    [Hi Sohar at 758. I am glad Brown has highlighted this. I stopped listening to Tony Delroy (after about 14 years) when he started having Dennis Shanahan on his show to comment on politics. I cannot stand this type of interview – journalist on journalist, particularly when the so called expert interviewee has an agenda like Shanahans. So I switched to Phillip Adams, and who should appear but that other stooge Christian Kerr. The sooner there is a purge at the ABC to get rid of the rancid influence of Howard’s appointees and the deliberate cross polination of News Ltd editorialisation on MY TAXPAYER FUNDED BROADCASTER the better.]

    May I suggest you contribute your thoughts to Jenauthor’s GetUp pitch? We know Their ABC are watching it with interest (and, I hope, with concern).

    http://suggest.getup.org.au/forums/60819-campaign-ideas/suggestions/1684971-petition-for-abc-to-return-to-its-charter

    Up to 1494 votes at the moment …

  18. Bernard Keane on irrigation investment as an alternative to water buybacks:

    [And just as an aside, here’s a nice example of media double standards. The whole MDB water initiative is costing billions of dollars. We’ve seen how the media reacts to claims of inefficiency in other big government programs, even when independent bodies like the ANAO discredit them.

    We’ve seen the froth-mouthed fury from The Australian and the ABC’s “Online Investigation Unit” and 4 Corners over programs like the HIP and the BER — remember claims that the implementation of the BER saw NSW paying a whole 6% more for its construction than other states?

    So why haven’t we seen 80 times the media outrage about a program where, according to the Productivity Commission, billions are being wasted on spending initiatives that are four times more expensive than alternatives? What, doesn’t fit the media’s preferred narrative? Forget about it!]

  19. Agreed, Lynchpin. Perhaps the Government can privatise the ABC and sell it to Murdoch, but retain all the existing infrastructure (studios, transmitters) to start up a new government funded independent media organisation – it can be called “Not-the-ABC”. Essentially only the journalists, backroom hacks and management would be sold to Rupert as “intellectual” capital. Wouldn’t get much for them, though: maybe about 20 cents.

  20. [So why haven’t we seen 80 times the media outrage about a program where, according to the Productivity Commission, billions are being wasted on spending initiatives that are four times more expensive than alternatives?]

    Because it was a Liberal Government proposal

  22. I just had a look at the sitting calender. There are only eight sitting days left before July 1st.

    The conservatives must be looking around in disbelief. This was not the way it was supposed to be. Tony was supposed to bring down the government by now. Soon they will be more powerless, with the control of the Senate going to the hated Greens. The next four weeks will be a cascasde of anger and vitriol as those most accustomed to controlling the lives of others and molding society to suit themselves find they are controlled and others are making the decisions which impact on them.

    It must be a bit like the prisoners swapping places with the guards.

    hahahahahaha. 👿

  23. [DrPhibes – how quickly does the ATO get on to an employer who doesn’t remit income tax payments? Is it almost instantaneous?]

    At the end of the month. If it is then not paid they call in private debt collectors. Dun & Bradstreet mostly.

  24. Puff,

    It couldn’t happen to a better cohort of LNP politicians. As far back as I remember, I can’t recall a more bitter, self-absorbed group of people.

  25. Poll shows overwhelming Aussie opposition to continuing the war in Afghanistan
    __________________________________________________________
    Only I% of those polled listed the war as their most important item in the poll.
    Only our brain-dead Leaders refuse to listen to the people
    Julia Abbott and Tony Gillard are just as bad as each other

  27. William
    Keane is also scathing as to the parliamentary report’s value as an action plan (I hope I avoid gaol for posting this extract from Bernard :grin:):

    [The House of Reps Regional Australia committee’s report on the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is a showcase example of why politicians shouldn’t be let near serious policy making.

    Hastily put together by a panicked — well, more panicked than usual — Government after it hopelessly mismanaged the response to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority guide, the Committee brought together a number of regional MPs, led by Tony Windsor, to channel community anger away from Labor.

    The result is more or less what you’d expect if you asked a bunch of politicians to develop a policy on an intensely divisive and complex social, economic and environmental issue.]

    The Wentworth Group of scientists is remaining silent about this retrograde development, but one can imagine their dismay.

  28. i experienced the same thing,, i was so surprised to find him on adams show, so stopped listening adams now for some time he use to have a talk to Laura Tingle i think once a week, which was a different kind of interview she did most of the talking about the current events and was very either way, i did enjoy that.

    i then there was another called ” counter point” is that still on , ,

    what the abc cannot come to grips with the fact that they lost listeners that will never ever come back and the right wing people may be didnt even know kerr was on radio so the audience may not have bounced back who knows.

    did the abc care they lost us may be not

  31. Opposition’s Tactics.in House of Reps.
    _________________
    During both terms of the Whitlam Govt. the opposition ,then lead by such tacticians as Anthony./Nixon /Snedden/and others,used the House to harass and delay the Labor Govt’s. programs

    Constant disorder and some chaos was their tactic…it led in the end to Whitlam’s virtual sacking of Speaker Jim Cope who lost control.of the House on occasions.
    They are at it again I think…and will continue in the House to do this… no matter what the balance in the Senate !!…and they are helped by Oakshott’s silly actions..

  32. [Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu and West Australian Premier Colin Barnett are holding out on signing up to the reforms, claiming the legislation setting up the NHPA does not reflect a deal struck between Julia Gillard and state premiers in February.

    They claim it does not recognise the role of the states as the managers of public hospitals.

    This is because, as it stands, the watchdog would be able to issue public reports about underperforming hospitals, without first discussing the problems with the state health ministers who run the hospitals.]

    Presumably Vic and WA want to continue running the hospitals without anyone pointing out what a crap job they are actually doing.

  33. Diogenes

    “Irrigation investment is the pain-free solution to the MDB’s woes. It reduces water loss, freeing up some water for the environment. Irrigators like it because it’s effectively a handout of capital to them to upgrade their infrastructure. Communities like it because it means areas don’t have water allocations sold away and it injects money into the local economy.

    Trouble is, as the Productivity Commission has found, it’s also far more expensive than buying water. Last year, the PC looked at mechanisms for recovering water, and concluded:

    Recent experience is that the cost per ML of government efforts to recover water for the environment through infrastructure upgrades is highly variable, but in most cases exceeds the cost for recovery through purchasing… the Australian Government may pay up to four times as much for recovering environmental water through infrastructure upgrades than through water purchases… Funding irrigation infrastructure upgrades is generally not a cost-effective way for governments to recover water for the environment.

    The PC also anticipated the argument that irrigation investment by government supports regional communities, pointing out there were most cost-effective ways of supporting communities as well.

    Did the Committee acknowledge the PC’s criticisms in any way? The PC is only referenced once in the whole report]

  35. Sohar 768

    “Essentially only the journalists, backroom hacks and management would be sold to Rupert as “intellectual” capital. ”

    I thought he had already bought them!

    I have voted on GetUp BTW.

  39. [Constant disorder and some chaos was their tactic…it led in the end to Whitlam’s virtual sacking of Speaker Jim Cope who lost control]

    it may be we have all forgotten what an orderly Q T is like , and that Harry is doing a good job in such a bad situation,.
    the opps no matter who should be ashamed of them selves.

  40. Keane is once again urging Governments and politicians to sacrifice themselves the the altar of his personal choices. Here is an ABC story from yesterday which nails the lack of a proper communications process by the MDB authority in their earlier deliberations.

    The reality is that people have to be brought along with such a controversial life altering situation.

    Will the final outcome be perfect. Probably not. Will it be better than now. Probably.

    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3233656.htm

  41. Should Tony Abbott really be talking about superannuation? Given he is opposed to it increasing.

    Small business will hate paying the SGL to the ATO. Many deliberately under state what they should be paying, fail to pay any for casuals and use it as a piggy bank.

    Hey Tony what about this for an idea, the ATO pays wages, horrible costs on business that they are. 😉

  47. [jaraparilla Gary Lord
    by BrigadierSlog
    Fear of failure causes unemployment, says top Liberal with un-removable silver spoon up his arse. news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-… #auspol
    ]

  48. I missed this yesterday. Baillieu’s govt is turning the clock back in so many ways.
    [The Victorian Government has cast the rules of Parliament aside to reintroduce a bill that will allow faith-based groups to discriminate on grounds such as religion, marital status or gender.]

  49. [Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    @
    @PollBludger Posstradamus! 😛
    7 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
    William Bowe
    PollBludger William Bowe
    @
    @Pollytics I believe you’ve just answered my question …
    8 minutes ago
    William Bowe
    PollBludger William Bowe
    @
    @Pollytics Why are the trendlines skirting the top/bottom of the recent data points? Residual effect of the 56-44 result from mid-April?
    9 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
    ]

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