Advertiser: 60-40 to Liberal in SA

The Advertiser has published one of its occasional self-conducted polls of South Australian voting intention, and while the sample is small (442, with a margin of error of over 4.5 per cent) and the pollster probably not the most expert going around, it adds to an impression of a government in terminal decline and a Premier long past his use-by date. Labor’s primary vote is at a New South Wales-ian 24 per cent compared with 50 per cent for the Liberals and 11 per cent for the Greens, with the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred. Liberal leader Isobel Redmond has a thumping 56-28 lead over Mike Rann as preferred premier, and Education Minister Jay Weatherill is favoured over Rann to lead Labor to the next election 34-26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

295 comments on “Advertiser: 60-40 to Liberal in SA”

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  1. I expect Labor to lose the next SA election. The Rann government old, stale and set to fall. Rann should have got out long before now and handed over to Jay Weatherall. Jay Weatherall will only get the gig if the ALP has no hope of winning.

    I just hope the ALP gets the new hospital project up and running before they go and that the Adelaide Oval is saved from that ugly, unnecessary ‘upgrade’.

  2. TPP Coalition:ALP
    NSW 70.5:29.5
    SA 60:40
    WA 57:43
    Vic 57:43

    …evidence that there are some elections you are better off losing!

  3. Puffy

    The new RAH will definitely be built. Work will start in a couple of months. I’m pretty sure Rann will also destroy Adelaide Oval as a parting gesture.

  4. Dio,
    The people responsible for desecrating Adelaide Oval should spend a week in stocks in the MIddle of Rundlle Mall. Nah, make that Hindley Street. 😡

  5. You mean give us an affordable inner city stadium and redevelopment AND a new hospital? I do not see how that is destroying it…

  6. Four things:

    1. It’s probably in the SA ALP’s interest to lose the next election or end up like NSW

    2. Weatherill should be Premier (he won’t be because of the SA Right)

    3. The way things look at the moment, the SA Liberal party is further left than the ALP

    4. The irony is had the Liberal Party been in government, there would be outrage about the costings of their 50,000 seater stadium, hospital, casino complex as well as all the factional stuff that was going on between Evans and Chapman etc etc etc

  7. Rann was dead meat from the time the Chantelois business emerged. Labor is dead meat for clinging to him.

    The irony is that the Libs will inherit a brand new hospital which they have fought against all the way + an electrified railway system + new highway projects, and dine out on them for years to come.

    As for the Adelaide Oval/riverbank project, I doubt whether it will go ahead – which would be a great pity for cricket, football, other sporting and cultural events and, most of all, the City of Adelaide. IMHO.

  8. As if the above polls are not bad enough, it’s what’s happening behind the scenes that bake the cake.

    The Left are egging on the local union movement and anyone else they can to have a go at the government (=the SDA Right) and almost everyone is joining in. The Advertiser, that bastion of left wing thought, has been strangely even handed, owing no doubt to the Editor’s friendship with Rann since their Uni days. It is barely helping.

    The Right is fighting amongst itself now. Two senior Right Labor MPs were seen in the corridors of Parliament House absolutely screaming at each other, but only ALP staffers were present before they were broken up.

    Two senior MPs are also now openly in a relationship, from two different factions no less. It is the only example I can think of when members of the two factions get together to make love not war.

    Generational change is also being held up by the ALP internal requirement that the next Right MP in the Upper House has to be a woman. There are Right MLCs ready to retire, but the problem is there is no women in the Right considered suitable to move in. Expect the next one to be Nicole Cornes, once her current defamation case against Mick Molly is finalised. (Now there’s another exclusive to PB).

    And of course the right also has Police Minister Kevin Foley running around being beaten up again (in the latest incident he was given the Royal Flush in a city restaurant toilet), and a new scandal about him is about to emerge just as he is due to return from a conveniently timed overseas trip. The Right bosses want to dump him but know that a by-election will see Foley’s arch nemesis, popular local Mayor Gary Johanson (and ex-Liberal), win as an independent. But Foley may decide to go as soon as he is offered another job overseas. The Liberals hope he stays.

    New Treasurer Jack Snelling is reading from the same text book as his predecessor Foley warning of a tough budget. People in the inner circle know that the budgets will get sweeter closer to the election, but by then it is probably way too late.

    The Liberals are waiting silently watching on knowing that whilst the ALP tears itself apart, they have to do – nothing. Of course in the lead up to the election they will have to disclose policies, but they are copying Barry O’Farrell’s example of waiting until they need to move.

    At 24% of the primary vote, ALP insiders acknowledge their vote has probably bottomed. Probably. I am not convinced it has. The ALP is only retaining the support of its famiy and friends, and it’s got precious few of the latter left.

  9. Do voters need to number every box in SA? If so, come election day there will be handy flow of Greens preferences to help save the furniture – if there is OPV it would be highly reminiscent of NSW.

  10. [Do voters need to number every box in SA?]

    Yes. The Greens don’t have much impact here in state politics so they aren’t a great target for disgruntled voters. the indies are more popular.

  11. Actually, SA has a weird optional preferential in State Elections.

    Even though a “1”, a tick or a cross is considered ultimate to be formal on election night itself these “single” votes are placed with the informals in the first instance. On the second count they are separated from the other informals and divided up into piles for each of the candidates and the preferences subsequently distributed according to the ticket lodged by each candidate.

    Should a candidate have not lodged a ticket, their “single” votes then revert to being informal.

  12. Sorry; spelling and punctuation FAIL. This is what happens when you reword sentences.

    [Even though a “1”, a tick or a cross can be considered ultimately to be a formal vote, on election night itself these “single” vote are placed with the informals in the first instance. etc]

    Hope that makes more sense now … 😉

  13. I wonder how Geoff Brock is traveling in Frome at the moment? The post-September 2010 backlash against rural independents has me worried for him…

  14. Interesting rundown Independently Thinking.

    It can be summed up as “a relentless power grab by diehard right faction powerbrokers and a complete lack of internal democracy has led to a total breakdown of the SA Labor party”.

    Something is seriously wrong when progressive unions are united in open opposition to a Labor government. Factionalism gone completely mad.

    Would the party really install Cornes somewhere after the Federal debacle?

  15. As for the oval, only in this ridiculous state would one of our most famous icons be ripped apart to make way for a footy stadium (which we do actually need) instead of the new stadium being built somewhere else. Like the numerous under-used parklands to the south and west. Or the current athletics oval just west of the CBD which is easily big enough and on a train line to boot.

  16. The old icon is already severely compromised. The old Adelaide Oval ain’t what she used to be many long years ago. And never will be again.

    Cricket wants to pay off its $85 million debt so that it can put money into junior and regional cricket instead of into bank profits.

    The AFL wants to stem the losses from having the Power play at AAMI Stadium.

    The SANFL wants to sell land around AAMI so that it can invest in a future fund for local footy.

    The business community wants a vibrant riverside precinct.

    Instead, we’re likely to see a minority of old fogies from the SACA thwart all these plans so that they can reign over an empty cricket ground in the heart of a moribund city.


  17. [Instead, we’re likely to see a minority of old fogies from the SACA thwart all these plans so that they can reign over an empty cricket ground in the heart of a moribund city.]
    For what they’re spending on “upgrades” they could build a brand spanking new stadium somewhere else. That’s crazy.

  18. At the last state election in SA, Labor didn’t have a chance. They are still in place because the Liberal party are worse and have no policies people can see. Talk about a lose lose situation.

  19. TT

    [Instead, we’re likely to see a minority of old fogies from the SACA thwart all these plans so that they can reign over an empty cricket ground in the heart of a moribund city.]

    Get them to build a decent stadium instead of a half-arsed $600M facelift which still leaves a partially enclosed ground with no roof and no ability to alter the ground for soccer, rugby etc.

  20. “For what they’re spending on “upgrades” they could build a brand spanking new stadium somewhere else. That’s crazy.”

    No doubt you believe the nonsensical claims of the Liberals that they could build a much larger stadium plus a new convention centre 10 metres above the railway lines for half the price of the upgrade.

    A proper builder (not a failed lawyer or an RAH surgeon) costed the project at well over $2.5 billion.

  21. I know the SA ALP are a joke but what shits me is blowing $530+ million on the Adelaide Oval “upgrade” when that money could be better spent elsewhere in health for example. We’ve already got a world renowned cricket oval and a pretty good footy stadium too.

    If footy/cricket/big business want an upgraded stadium or a new one altogether they should be able to do it themselves. Look at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne which cost $460 million to build and I believe is privately owned with minimal investment from the Victorian government.

  22. The only thing in the SA ALP’s favour right now is that the Liberal Party literally have no policies.

    Redmond’s not playing a small target strategy, she’s playing a no target strategy. My general opinion of her is that her political success will mirror what happens to Abbott because she became Liberal Party leader when the internal pyrotechnics were going off around the middle of 2009.

    It’s been Rob Brokenshire from Family First who has been making all the noise.

    All that being said, I think it’s time Rann declared his innings. He’s had a good run as leader (since around 1994 from memory) with a good record as Premier. It’s time to give someone new a go (preferably Weatherill, most likely Rau).

  23. Telstra Dome cost $400Mish 13 years ago. That number will have gone up a bit, but would still be within shouting distance of $600M now.

    I don’t believe anything the Liberals say. History shows however that “upgrading” stadiums is a great way to pump millions of dollars down the toilet. Look at AAMI itself, or Kardinia Park. Unless you’re going to do an MCG style teardown and rebuild it’s not worth it.

  24. It’s interesting that the editor of the Advertiser mentions the federal Nielsen poll.

    I’d have thought that it wouldn’t have any bearing on state issues.

    I also think it’s interesting that last year when the state budget came out, the Financial Review editorial was full of praise for Rann and Foley and yet I doubt anyone in this state would have paid attention to it because of the dominance of The Advertiser

  25. Bugga that.
    Leave the old girl alone, except for fixing the accessibility problems, so we can have decent home for a moderately civilised cricket match byo cucumber sandwiches, kick the AFL back to West Lakes where it belongs, sell off that useless Hindmarsh stadium site for redevelopment, and build a decent rectangular stadium out north at Gepps Cross or west of the CBD where the running track is, or somewhere else, and get some real football into this state.

  26. Message to SA Labor: “Don’t Panic” (with due acknowledgement to the Hitchiker’s Guide to the Galaxy!)

    At least not just yet.

    With three full years until the next election, and facing a Non-Opposition, now is not the time to give up. By election time, the Adelaide Oval issue will have gone away (one way or the other!) but the RAH development (which will be well underway by then) could be a sticky problem, especially with inevitable cost blow-outs etc. Plenty of grist for the Libs to re-run a BER/Home Insultaion/Stop the Waste style disinformation campaign.

    The solution to avoding electoral oblivion is clear and obvious – the question is whether Labor’s factions (are you reading this Don???) can act swiftly in the interests of the party.

    Kevin Foley simply has to go – out of Parliament altogether, and preferably from the State as well! This is nothing personal (I like the guy) but as far as the electorate goes – forget it. One seat lost to an independent – so what? Labor will stay have a clear majority (25/47). The greater challenge will be to identify a strong candidate for Port Adelaide in 2014 – better find a PAFC favourite son by then, and hope that Gary J does not entrench himself by then. But it has to be done.

    Rann and Conlon have to go too, but will need to hang around on the back bench til 2014. Stay out of trouble. Say nothing. Do it for the good of the party. No more by-elections – SA Labor has to avoid the by-election rot that enhanced the sense of doom surrounding NSW Labor (remember on the Tiser poll’s numbers, Labor would be reduced to around 7 or 8 seats in 2014).

    New Premier: Weatherill. No brainer. Bugger the Right. It is far better to have someone electable than play out factional feuding in public. I only wish.

    Deputy Premier: Chloe Fox. Despite the challenges of her domestic circumstances, she is still “fresh” for the electorate, and bright and personable.

    Get some new blood into cabinet too. Tony Piccolo is too good a campaigner to have sitting on the back bench – get him into the limelight. Make him Treasurer!!

    The main thing though is to establish in the minds of the electorate at large that change has happened and that the Government is young and refreshed (ok Tony P’s not young but at least he looks it!). In 2014, Jay will still only be 50 and Chloe will be 43.

    This will be in stark contrast to a 60+ Isobel and her coterie of 60+ front benchers by the time 2014 comes around. Not to mention the spectre of Vickie Chapman lurking in the shadows!!

    Don’t give up yet! There’s still time!! But for God’s sake do something….. Please

  27. [Not sure what WA’s doing in there, Mod Lib]

    sorry, Bilbo, a bit vague I know! Have been v v busy recently…

    The elections which were close losses have left the ALP with a chance next time around (I don’t think the ALP will win either Vic or WA at this stage but they have a shot). The near wins for the ALP at the last elections (NSW and SA) have left them completely crippled and will likely mean long terms in opposition. Doesn’t bode well for the Feds next time around (the front page of Oz long term Newspoll trend line tells the story)

  28. Kevin Foley has taken a lot of crap, some of it self-inflicted, but he’s basically a good bloke and has been a capable Treasurer.

    Pat Conlon is the best minister in the government. The only one worth feeding, according to the late tycoon Alan Scott.

    The Adelaide Oval project is more than a sports concept. The linking riverbank development is equally important. Together they really would give Adelaide a big lift.

  29. TT

    [Kevin Foley has taken a lot of crap, some of it self-inflicted, but he’s basically a good bloke and has been a capable Treasurer.]

    I’ve met a lot of people who know him who disagree with that assessment.

    [Pat Conlon is the best minister in the government.]

    They agree with you on that.

  30. I like Kevin Foley and I like Pat Conlon. They are both good blokes. (I even think Mike Rann is a decent bloke as well!) Pat, in particular, is a very bright and very funny man. My concern is one of perception and use by date. SA Labor has to do something to avoid the growing perceptions of staleness and needs rejuvenation. I might have been a bit harsh suggesting Pat should retire to the back bench but as engaging as he is at a personal level, this is not how he is perceived in the broader electorate. Ok, he can stay on, but Rann and Foley have to go!

  31. Reflecting on my post and Diog’s comment @35, Pat has to get away from the limelight and take on a John Faulkner like elder statesman role for the next 3 years. I certainly agree that he is a top level ministerial performer from my interaction with him – smart, clever, witty and on his game.

  32. Mod Lib

    [not sure what effect this will have when more is revealed…]

    My guess is that Indo’s Don’t Panic advice will be sorely tested.

  33. “arrested a 38-year-old man from the north-eastern suburbs at his home address in relation to several offences.”

    They can’t name the MP, but that probably narrows it down.

  34. 38 year old man from the north eastern suberbs.

    I’ve checked the birth dates of the current MPs where the information is available. I’ve narrowed it down to Jack Snelling or Tom Kenyon

  35. [We shouldn’t speculate who it is until it is announced…]

    Agreed Dio, but I don’t want names, just party. If this is a Lib it could reverse what I said above.

  36. A 38 year old male, north eastern suburbs based, Labor MP. That’s awfully specific.

    There are meant to be automatic suppression on cases like this, but the media seems to have narrowed it down significantly

  37. “He is charged with one aggravated count of possessing child pornography, a second count of possession of child pornography and two counts of taking steps to obtain child pornography, and has been released on police bail.”

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