Advertiser: 60-40 to Liberal in SA

The Advertiser has published one of its occasional self-conducted polls of South Australian voting intention, and while the sample is small (442, with a margin of error of over 4.5 per cent) and the pollster probably not the most expert going around, it adds to an impression of a government in terminal decline and a Premier long past his use-by date. Labor’s primary vote is at a New South Wales-ian 24 per cent compared with 50 per cent for the Liberals and 11 per cent for the Greens, with the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred. Liberal leader Isobel Redmond has a thumping 56-28 lead over Mike Rann as preferred premier, and Education Minister Jay Weatherill is favoured over Rann to lead Labor to the next election 34-26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

295 comments on “Advertiser: 60-40 to Liberal in SA”

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  2. It just amazes me how when things are going badly politically, something happens to make it even worse…has anyone else noticed this?

    (yes, I know this is going to be ‘recall bias’ as they call it, but it really feels real to me)

  5. OK, guys, I know who it is but can’t say, but put it this way:

    The SA Police website say it is a 38 year old man from the North Eastern suburbs.
    The ABC SA news website says it is a Minister (and they don’t mean of religion).
    Most news websites have mentioned the raids on the MP’s home. They also state that the Police are expected to raid the MP’s Parliament House office and city office tomorrow (Thursday). No mention of a suburban office.

    Only one person meet all these criteria, and his name has not been mentioned which is why names should not be mentioned.

    My ALP friends are devastated. Even though this will not be a fatal blow this far out from an election, it is a terrible psychological blow to the government and will require a Ministerial reshuffle of some sort.

    I will also hasten to add that this man has only been charged. He has not been proven guilty. All people have the right to be considered innocent until proven guilty. Remember this. It might be you one day in a similar situation.

    I will also finish with the comment that no one in SA politics, even the Libs I’ve spoken to, are finding any joy in this. Just very sad.

  10. I spoke to an ALP staffer this morning and after talking about the poll, asked if things could get worse for the SA Government.

    He said, “F$%* yes”. He didn’t elaborate but now of course it makes sense.

    A Lib staffer I spoke to tonight said they would not be using this and that Izzy’s staff waere already spreading the word not to comment, or use this in any way for ethical and legal reasons. I hope all Libs (and others) take heed of this sensible course.

  11. TSOP

    It will still be pretty devastating even though it isn’t a government matter.

    I’m sure the Libs etc won’t make an issue of it but they don’t have to. It’s going to be a bombshell.

  12. Of course it’s gonna be devastating. One thing this government has been relatively free of is criminal conduct of its members. My message was more a call to bludgers not to follow the lead of some on twitter saying things like ” Rann leads a government of paedophiles” etc. I like this place because the discourse is a little higher than that.

  13. TSOP

    It might take quite a while for the name to come out and it may never come out with suppression orders unless it goes all the way through the courts against him.

    It’s not good for anyone.

  14. Well, the Daily Telegraph journalist called Tim Vollmer just tweeted the name. But I suppose DT journos not known for their ethics.

  17. Gus

    [is the suppression order statewide or nationwide?]

    I was just thinking the same thing. I believe they are only statewide so I don’t know how that works with the internet.

  19. How it works with the internet is that any download of that tweet in SA amounts to publication in the State and therefore a breach of the suppression order. The only question is whether the courts will do anything about it.

    The guy tweeting the name is a fool for doing so.

  21. No such thing as “shield laws” to protect you from a breach of a state suppression order. If you publish the information in the jurisdiction you are technically cactus.

  24. GF, trust me, I do this for a job. Legally suicidal conduct by the journo. Shield laws would protect journos from revealing sources, not excuse them from compliance with suppression orders.

  25. Some of my internet-savvy friends are tweeting about that issue – apparently with the internet precedent is that ‘publication’ occurs where the information is accessed. Presumably if someone accessed the DT reporter guy’s stream in SA, then the reporter is in contempt. Presumably.

  27. It should be published though. Given the position of the accused it can’t stay secret and secrecy only ends up casting suspicion on a number of his completely innocent colleagues.

    How does Rann stand down the minister without revealing who he is?

  28. guys

    aint angling for an argument

    juts hypothesising why the journo would do it

    the shiled laws are an allowable defence to reportage

    viz if reporter X said his informant divulged the name

    does he reveal it or not?

  31. gus

    This has nothing to do with that law to protect informants. This appears to me to be contempt of court, for disallowing a suppression order. Mr Vollmer is I believe very unwise to do so, but one of the people who I follow on Twitter (not under this handle) who is a South Aussie retweeted it. Dumbarse.

    As TSOP mentioned, it is rather distasteful for some Lib fan tweeps making some really unsavoury comments because it is someone from the ALP. I don’t recall members of the Islamic community cheering every time a Catholic priest is charged with something similar.

    I hope, and expect, better ethics from PBers.

  34. I thought after the Kapunda murders the AG was going to look as these laws because like snowtown they only relate to SA! The laws haven’t caught up with technology and should it go to trial the jury wont be picked from outside the state so no the other states as I understand it can publish in print probably not online but where does twitter fit?

  36. [As TSOP mentioned, it is rather distasteful for some Lib fan tweeps making some really unsavoury comments because it is someone from the ALP. I don’t recall members of the Islamic community cheering every time a Catholic priest is charged with something similar.

    I hope, and expect, better ethics from PBers.]

    no one here would be dumb enough to comprise crikey and WB

  37. drowner,
    The young lad charged with the Kapunda murders had his face plastered all over facebook and there was nothing the government could do and John Rau admitted as much!

  39. Jason

    Rau said that it was still illegal on Facebook etc but basically impossible to enforce.

    [The model suppression-order provisions approved by SCAG in May 2010 include internet publication as a form of publication that can be prohibited by a suppression or non-publication order.

    But the typical user of a social networking site would probably not know of, or be reckless about, the existence of a suppression order, he said.]

    http://www.techworld.com.au/article/370884/ags_discuss_suppression_orders/

  43. Evidently the name will be in the interstate papers but not on the internet. That poses a problem for this and other sites. I don’t what is meant to happen.

  45. Dio

    I can recall another case back in the days when I was working in Melbourne that The Age covered a major case in Adelaide on the front page and nothing was mentioned about it in the Adelaide media (pre internet) due to a supp order.

    I was phoned by an Adelaide colleague asking what was going on in the case as sale of interstate newspapers carrying the story was banned in Adelaide. I don’t know if that still happens…but as my local newsagent carries interstate papers (bless him) I will check in the morning, oh, today.

  46. The link below I am only including due to the second part of the story about SA Police Minister Kevin Foley’s musings on his ALP colleagues. The arrested MP is not KF.

    I can only imagine the joyous welcome he will return to at Adelaide Airport from his peers.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/sa-mp-on-child-porn-charges/story-fn59niix-1226042436500

    KFol’s colleagues will be there waiting for him, not to tap him on the shoulder, but I would suggest, ready and able with baseball bats, pick axes and lengths of 2×4.

    The ALP Right in SA whose reputation for running a tightly controlled organisation would be admired by the mafia, is now falling apart in a way that even the local Liberals (who wrote the textbook on political disunity) can only watch in awe.

    Rann may have been promised a dignified exit as Premier early next year, KFol to go out on his own terms, and no doubt some other deals may have been done, but Rann must go sooner than later, Foley should be sacked and if they lose his seat, then so be it, and all other deals must be off or they face going so far down they won’t be able to recover.

    If the SA ALP don’t stop the bleeding very, very soon; not only will their polls go further south than Douglas Mawson, their internal morale will collapse and they will as an organisation cease to function effectively.

    Evidence may make some to think it may be too late already.

  47. IT,

    You seem to be right in the know with much of SA politics what do you think of Leon Bignell? I know Foley rips him in that article which doesn’t mean much but I’ve heard good things about him.

  48. Adam

    Biggles is a very good operator. I’ve known him for years and though he does look rather cuddly, he is very shrewd and hard working. He has also retained a sense of social justice (Kevin Foley asks his staff to grab the Oxford Dictionary for the meaning) and genuine care for his constituents.

    Those attributes and the muddled Lib campaign in his seat at the last election is why he won with an increased majority.

    Yes, what KFol says about anything and anyone doesn’t really count for much anymore. It is like a sewage working taking a dump at Bolivar.

  50. “Labor factions being urged to replace Rann and Foley”:

    [LABOR faction leaders are being urged to thrash out a leadership change to replace Premier Mike Rann and former Treasurer Kevin Foley within two months.

    Stung by the latest opinion poll showing Labor’s support slumping to State Bank levels, MPs are calling for changes at the top to give the party “clear air to sell its message”. “Doing nothing is not an option,” a Left source said.

    Behind the scenes, disgruntled MPs are pointing the finger at the party leadership and calling for change before it is too late. They say Mr Rann’s approval rating never has recovered from what became known as the Chantelois affair and Labor’s image regularly is being tarnished by the “soap opera” surrounding Mr Foley.

    There is intense speculation on growing support among Right faction MPs to have Education Minister Jay Weatherill, who is in the Left, replace the Premier. That was unthinkable a year ago.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/ipad/voters-desert-ranns-labor/story-fn6bqphm-1226041831973

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