Advertiser: 60-40 to Liberal in SA

The Advertiser has published one of its occasional self-conducted polls of South Australian voting intention, and while the sample is small (442, with a margin of error of over 4.5 per cent) and the pollster probably not the most expert going around, it adds to an impression of a government in terminal decline and a Premier long past his use-by date. Labor’s primary vote is at a New South Wales-ian 24 per cent compared with 50 per cent for the Liberals and 11 per cent for the Greens, with the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred. Liberal leader Isobel Redmond has a thumping 56-28 lead over Mike Rann as preferred premier, and Education Minister Jay Weatherill is favoured over Rann to lead Labor to the next election 34-26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

295 comments on “Advertiser: 60-40 to Liberal in SA”

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  1. The Right will start tearing itself apart and Don Farrell’s authority is seriously compromised.

    As someone said earlier, it’s NSW again.

    Weatherill is the only circuit beaker.

  2. As always, the lefty lovies response to a bad poll is “Change the leadership” now. Labor’s vote is being cruelled across the board because of the Carbon tax debate. When that settles down, we’ll get to the core of any outstanding issues.

    As I understand there is a leadership transition plan happening anyway.

    Of course Diogs blind hatred of Rann and Foley diminshes the quality of anything he has to say on SA politics.

  4. My compliments on the civilised discussion of the MP being charged with child pornography offences last night. I agree it is very inappropriate to name the person. Politically I think this is a(nother) disaster for SA Labor. Ethically, as long as the offences in no way related to the accused abusing their position as a Minister, I see no reason they should be named. However converesly, I don’t see how they can continue as a cabinet minister while accused either.

    Presumably a cabinet reshuffle will be essential with Foley and Rann going sooner or later anyway. Given this additional complication, I think it would be best to combine this person moving aside with all the other changes now. The look of a fresh team in SA Labor is badly needed I think, and this will force those issues to a head.

    GG, views on Rann and Foley have nothing to do with this IMO. Nobody in favour of the sacking of Rudd over his popularity figures could consistently agree Rann should stay on. Rann’s figures are now lower than Rudd’s. This poll may have a small sample, but if combined with the previous the trend is clear.

  6. [It’s gonna get a lot worse for the DLP Labor soon.]
    Is this a reference to something else that might be breaking news soon?

  9. Sykesie

    The push for Weatherill will be enormous now. And we’ll see if those members of the Labor Unity destroy the party as they have repeatedly threatened to do if he became leader.

  17. Agree too. I don’t particularly know Weatherall, but the current trend continuing is disastrous for Labor in SA. There needs to be a leadership change and sweeping reshuffle.

  19. Actually there is a growing discontent with Farrell amongst many on the grassroots level of the party that he has just used his hegemony over the right faction and ALP to lay his religious hangups on everyone. He was once seen as glue keeping the party strong, he is now seen as keeping it stuck in the past.

    There will be rebellion before too long.

  21. dovif,
    I know the left are weak, but he couldn’t be kept in his current position! either way dammed if they do dammed if they dont!
    Now is the time to put the best interests of the party ahead of the shoppies for once!

  23. He’s innocent until proven guilty so I don’t think Rann has to dump him unless there is a conflict with his portfolio and the allegations.

    Politically he might have to be demoted but legally he probably shouldn’t. It probably depends on how the alleged wants to play it.

  28. Dio @ 101

    The Right are already tearing themselves apart.

    TSOP @ 109

    I think it fair to say the grass roots (what’s left of them) were fed up with Farrell a long, long time ago. Now they sniff a chance for a change. But Farrell & Co still have the numbers.

    Now, if the AWU was to change itself back to being in the Left, then the Left would have the numbers in SA, and I am sure a number of non-SDA Right MPs would follow. Weatherill would be Premier in weeks, etc etc. The SDA Right may take their bat & ball and go home, but then they know their chance of ever regaining power is zip.

    So, I repeat, if the AWU was to switch to the Left…

  31. SA acting police minister resigns
    AAP April 21, 2011, 11:27 am

    South Australia’s acting police minister Bernard Finnigan has resigned, Premier Mike Rann says.
    In a statement Mr Rann said he had accepted the resignation of Mr Finnigan from both the cabinet and the executive council.

  32. A friend at work said a quick search on twitter revealed over 20 hits naming the SA MP charged over child porn. Fair or not, the news is well and trully out.

  35. Before all the journalist gets the idea, I want to me the first to blame this on Gillard

    How can people not see the link. Gillard is from SA and this person is from SA. Clearly Gillard is at fault, it will be in tomorrow paper

  36. dovif

    Pesonally I blame Neil Craig. The Crows were rubbish in the showdown last week, and everything in SA has spralled out of control since.

  38. Dovif,

    from the earlier read of the posts here, people blame Farrell for getting this guy into Parliament. So the link to Gillard is tenuous but it is there.

  40. [Mr Finnigan is the first casualty of the Government following the disastrous Advertiser poll published on Tuesday which showed support for the party had slumped to its lowest level since the disastrous State Bank election of 1993.
    ]

    Hmmm.

  45. Socrates

    Considering that I believe the SA ALP won an election too many, in some ways I think a by-election would be better for the SA ALP

    It would means they stay 1 year too many rather then 3

  46. confessions @ 142

    No, he has not resigned from Parliament. There is no legal or ethical requirement for anyone resigning from Cabinet to also resign from Parliament.

    If an MP is convicted of certain offences, then that would mean they would automatically be expelled from Parliament, but I cannot recall any SA MP being convicted in the last 100 years or so.

    Anyway, whomever the charged MP is, he is still innocent until proven guilty.

  47. IT,

    Not according to Diogs. His visceral hatred of the ALP leadership apprently allows him to make up his own rules of decency as we go along.

  48. Dovif (and others)

    There seems to be a fallacy that the current SA Labor Government has a majority of 1 and a by-election loss would see their demise.

    Wrong.

    The ALP hold 26 seats, the Liberals hold 18, and Indies hold 3. It is reasonable to say that 1 Independent will almost always vote with Labor, 1 Independent will almost vote with the Liberals and the other, an ex-Liberal Minister will generally support the Liberals.

    Effectively, this means the ALP and 1 friend hold 27 seats in a 47 seat Parliament.

    Maths, people. They can lose 2 by-elections and still hold power even without their Indi friend (who won the seat off the Libs).

  49. [Oh, I wonder why he resigned.

    mystery.]

    I can’t remember stories on multiple news sites announcing a resignation where the reason is not mentioned, not even by the reporter.

  50. Mike Rann’s media statement:-

    Premier Mike Rann today accepted the resignation of Bernard Finnigan from Cabinet and Executive Council.
    The portfolios of Industrial Relations and State/Local Government Relations have been allocated to Minister Conlon.
    The portfolio of Minister for Gambling has been allocated to Minister Gago.
    The Premier does not intend to fill the vacancy created by the resignation.

    I have no idea what the last sentence means or is intended to refer to. I wonder if Rann’s media advisors know what they meant by it.

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