Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  2. [vp
    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 9:54 pm | Permalink
    The ON bloke should retire hurt: he is being laughed at by the audience whenever he opens his mouth. He sounds maniacal.]

    We don’t need to fear ON reps! Australian’s aren’t that daft.

    Remember Pauline Hanson never won an election under One Nation banner (only under the Lib banner when she was disendorsed too close to the election to have the ballots reprinted).

  3. [I notice that in her 25-word Twitter bio Caroline Overington finds space to announce that she “digs Bob Dylan”.]

    She’s also claiming on twitter to be a boat person.

  7. [and I don’t think any of us here should be taking a holier than thou attitude

    St Facial shows his true colours.

    Give yourself an uppercut!]

    Call me obtuse Centre but I have no idea what that is supposed to mean.

  10. [ rape-it-and-leave-it coal seam gas industry.

    It certainly came across that way.]
    I haven’t seen Four Corners but that was my prior impression of this industry. It started as a way to make money out of low grade coal deposits (too low grade to mine) given that gas prices have risen so much. People I trust tell me they have no idea what happens to all the (made very toxic) ground water. This industry will be the asbestos of the 2030s.

  18. [Gusface

    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    Did you forget your meds again!

    try to be original

    plagiarising my soundbites just reinforces your moral and intellectual vacuum
    ]

    You are as original as a Gestetner Duplicating machine 🙂

  23. [vera
    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
    Any sign of Newspoll?]

    Call the cops….someone’s taken GWV hostage!

  26. [Bligh just promised not to hold an early election.]
    Another smart decision. She shouldn’t even think about it till the Federal funding is agreed and the next state budget with reconstruction measures is passed and being delivered.

  27. [If Caroline digs Bob Dylan she should take time out to listen to some of his lyrics.]

    For example, applicable to PB tonite:

    Bob Dylan: Love Minus Zero:

    [My love she speaks like silence
    Without ideals or violence
    She doesn’t have to say she’s faithful
    Yet she’s true, like ice, like fire
    People carry roses
    And make promises by the hours
    My love she laughs like the flowers
    Valentines can’t buy her.

    In the dime stores and bus stations
    People talk of situations
    Read books, repeat quotations
    Draw conclusions on the wall
    Some speak of the future
    My love she speaks softly
    She knows there’s no success like failure
    And that failure’s no succes at all.

    The cloak and dagger dangles
    Madams light the candles
    In ceremonies of the horsemen
    Even the pawn must hold a grudge
    Statues made of match sticks
    Crumble into one another
    My love winks, she does not bother
    She knows too much to argue or to judge.

    The bridge at midnight trembles
    The country doctor rambles
    Bankers’ nieces seek perfection
    Expecting all the gifts that wise men bring
    The wind howls like a hammer
    The night blows rainy
    My love she’s like some raven
    At my window with a broken wing.]

  30. I know I am 30 mins behind the Eastern states so apologies if you already discussed this.

    Media Watch castigated radio station 2ue for its response to the funerals of those whose died in the CI tragedy, especially the false ‘sightseeing tour.’

    In response to a replay of a listener getting the shockjock massage, J Holmes said, actually the Australian government did pay for transport in the case of the Bali bombings and on other occasions. JH said a change in the 2ue head of programming with Peter Brennan (from 2gb) is behind the move to the views of “One Nation” (to use MJ’s words) and, “A fish stinks from the head.”

    Media Watch is worth a look (on Iview) this week for any who swore off it earlier in the year. Jh really gave it to 2ue and 2gb this week.

  31. [Bligh just promised not to hold an early election.]

    She’d be mad to go to an early election. She’d get branded as opportunist from the word go.

  39. [vera
    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 10:08 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib
    Who’s GWV? George W Vush????]

    Ghost Who Votes….sorry, I hate abbreviations and abbreviators. My bad.

  44. [Bligh just promised not to hold an early election.]

    She promised that before calling the last early election.

    Mod Lib and Finns

    I believe you are what you read.

  48. Puff I have been very impressed with JH on media watch, not afraid to tell it like it is, obviously not afraid of the Libs CEO plant in the ABC either, he retains his professionalism, something his collegues could well watch and learn from

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