Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. confessions@2631

    She’d be mad to go to an early election. She’d get branded as opportunist from the word go.

    No, it’s ok, Bligh can go early. She just needs to borrow the early election brains trust from Gillard. Karl hasn’t got much to do these days, so he’d be available, for a start.

  8. [2651

    jaundiced view

    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    confessions@2631

    She’d be mad to go to an early election. She’d get branded as opportunist from the word go.

    No, it’s ok, Bligh can go early. She just needs to borrow the early election brains trust from Gillard. Karl hasn’t got much to do these days, so he’d be available, for a start.
    ]

    How is the vote rigging dept at Menzies House ??

  11. The arguments in favour of action on global warming are as similar to those heard 10 years ago to those about immigration intolerance were at the same time.

    We are not going forward as a nation.

  13. WeWantPaul,

    [Barnaby is a small town accountant but still probably better than the ones find get to re add up their coatings. ]

    Dunno Paul! I seem to recollect that Barnacle had a bit of bother with his trillions, billions and millions in his brief stint as Shadow Finance Minister!

    If he had of stayed in that position, goodness knows how big that black hole prior to the election might have been! 😉

  18. Tim Flannery has mentioned degree of certainty relating to climate science.

    Hmmm, who mentioned degree of certainty relating to climate science here on PB but was accused of knowing nothing!

    Yeah! *green bludgers saluted with middle finger again*

  19. Apparently Barnyard is happy to introduce denialists in his electorate but suddenly because Flannery isn’t a climatologist he isn’t welcome – pathetic!

  29. [Anna Bligh should move to federal politics. She’s just what Labor needs.]
    There’s nothing magical about Anna Bligh. Qld Labor 2PP polling is worse than Federal Labor 2PP.

  31. I’m glad you got message even when iPhone had ‘corrected’ more words than it left. But couple mill was tops in the town we never needed thum funcy city words like billion and trillion – they be lefty poofy hippie words they be.

    You know the old joke about the best way to make a millionaire is to pick a billionaire and start and airline – barny rubble might be the best way to create a banana economy – start with keatings economy and add Joe and barnaby

  32. Think Big@2669

    Apparently Barnyard is happy to introduce denialists in his electorate but suddenly because Flannery isn’t a climatologist he isn’t welcome – pathetic!

    Funny considering Ian Plimer isn’t a climatologist and yet Barnaby bused him around Queensland spouting garbage.

  34. Centre

    In the scientific field of climate studies – which is informed by many different disciplines – the consensus is demonstrated by the number of scientists who have stopped arguing about what is causing climate change – and that’s nearly all of them. A survey of all peer-reviewed abstracts on the subject ‘global climate change’ published between 1993 and 2003 shows that not a single paper rejected the consensus position that global warming is man caused. 75% of the papers agreed with the consensus position while 25% made no comment either way, focusing on methods or paleoclimate analysis (Oreskes 2004).

    Several subsequent studies confirm that “…the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes”. (Doran 2009). In other words, more than 95% of scientists working in the disciplines contributing to studies of our climate, accept that climate change is almost certainly being caused by human activities.

    We should also consider official scientific bodies and what they think about climate change. There are no national or major scientific institutions anywhere in the world that dispute the theory of anthropogenic climate change. Not one.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus.htm

  35. Interesting that Anna is rated “better” than Julia. If Julia had been in Anna’s place tonight she would have dominated.

    This is not a put down of Anna Bligh: she has a job and she does it excellently but she can’t dominate in politics as Julia can.

    Each did what she had to do and full marks to both.

  43. Puff, thanks, but I won’t be going back to MediaWatch after last week’s disgusting effort – no matter how much they tried to make up for it tonight.

  48. Gus

    [sadly i have unfollowed u on twitter]

    Finns has unfriended me on Facebook about a hundred times and I’m not even on Facebook. 😥

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