Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. TSoP,

    Even just reading the Koran gives good insight (you have to make adjustments for about 1400 years). Mind you, like the bible, it is boringly repetitive. It’s a lot shorter, though.

  2. [The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader]
    Now, there is a really irrelevant question for a pollster to ask!

  3. [To Speak of Pebbles

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 1:50 am | Permalink

    Actually that’s not a bad result for Labor. No offense to Queenslanders but historically you are a conservative state.

    Not saying that Labor are in a happy place but I wouldn’t cry too hard about it.

    Exactly – and looks like there is a small swing to Labor as well.

  4. [and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.
    Well, 2/3rds don’t hate it!

  5. [deblonay

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 3:17 am | Permalink

    But Rudd ahead of Gillard…gosh….
    Queenslanders are slow learners though !

    I’ll bet if Beazley was still in the Party he would be ahead in a WA Poll.

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  7. Morning PBers – just read 7.30 Report transcript because we got Statewide in NSW last night.

    Loved Steve Bracks reply to Ewart

    [HEATHER EWART: Do you think the politicians of today on both sides have become too risk adverse?

    STEVE BRACKS: ……..

    And I think the days of simply going for a grab and repeating it, I think those days are over. And, Heather, I think ex media, ex-journalists are now media advisers are responsible for a lot of that teaching and learning and I think it’s going to be unlearnt pretty quickly in the future is my guess.]

  8. A lot of the Queensland problems can be sheeted home to the non performance of current ministers at the state level who will hopefully be cleaned out in the reshuffle this weekend. I know of one Minister whose office is run with a closed door policy. This has proven to be a roaring success with the Minister pretty much unsighted for the past two years and running exclusively on Federal isues to get by. Monday will show whether there is any awareness of what their real problems are how prepared they are to move ahead.

  9. Good morning Bludgers.
    My Bludging last night was abruptly curtailed by a two hour power failure but it seems to have been a relatively quiet night PB-wise.
    The Qld poll has enough “tease” in it to provide some level of anticipation with respect to the next NewsPoll.

  10. I always find it strange when people look at our adult population’s shortfalls and then conclude that “X isn’t being taught in schools.”

    The correct conclusion is, of course, that “X wasn’t taught in schools Y years ago.”

    In Victoria, civics is covered at primary school, with many, many schools traipsing up to Canberra to tour Parliament House with their local member; is a unit at Year 7 (when I’ve taught it, I’ve had great fun running mini election campaigns – it’s almost frightening how quickly these kids turn into politicians!) and later, as part of Legal Studies and History.

    Studying civics in junior years is good as it means all students cover it.

  11. Referendums are a terrific teaching tool and work brilliantly on a whole school model. The only thing my students always bemoaned is that we weren’t authentic enough because I didn’t make voting compulsory. Staff also liked to have a playful dig that they didn’t like playing the part of the territories where their vote just got placed in the overall pool.

    You’re right though zoomster, kids catch on to democratic concepts quickly when they get involved in authentic learning tasks. I have found they especially like the campaign aspects and creating various forms of ‘propaganda’! Great fun.

  12. When I do it, we select another class to be the electorate and arrange with their teacher dates and times for candidate speeches and the election.

    The class breaks up into parties and each one choses a candidate (and we always do end up with a couple of independents who want to do it all by themselves!)

    Without any prompting, typical election behaviour emerges. Each party is absolutely determined to win. Electors are bribed, threatened, cajoled and find their lockers stuffed full of party propaganda.

    Extravagant promises are made. The electorate is, fortunately, very dubious about whether the lollies promised will be delivered after the election.

    It doesn’t matter if I give them a particular issue to campaign on, or just tell them to form parties and get on with it, it always works out the same way!

    Oh, and the only incentive is winning….

  13. Love it zoomster!

    Did you ever teach Politics? With your background I’m sure you could provide some fascinating insight to your students.

  14. Hmmmm! Scotland Yard not exactly pretty angels after fronting up information they clearly denied existed. Looks like they can go to the top of the class for being so honest and who is going to believe what they sy in the future.
    Roo and his myrmidons not to be out done were still actively hacking three years after the arrest of Clive Goodman.

    Absolutely lovely people, the kind of people who should be actively engaged with the likes of Toxic Tony and his mates to overthrow the democratically elected government in Australia.
    Bless their rotten souls.

    [The Metropolitan police have been accused of misleading behaviour in the phone-hacking scandal after handing over evidence they had twice claimed did not exist……………….

    The case also threatens to embarrass the NoW because the alleged hacking occurred in June 2009 – three years after the arrest of its then royal correspondent, Clive Goodman, who was jailed with the paper’s private investigator, Glenn Mulcaire, on the basis that he was the only journalist involved in intercepting mobile phone messages. News International, which owns the paper, has repeatedly said that it does not allow illegal news gathering.

    Hoppen’s barrister, David Sherbourne, told the court: “This case is enormously important because it drives a coach and horses through the claim that has been persisted in by News International and its executives, that the criminal activities of Goodman and Mulcaire were purely historic, the isolated actions of one rogue journalist and his private investigator associate.”]

  15. [Ugly game of race baiting – Scott Morrison has form as a cheap populist, but his latest outburst is deeply harmful to the national interest.

    SCOTT Morrison, the Liberal frontbencher who this week distinguished himself as the greatest grub in the federal Parliament, is the classic case of the politician who is so immersed in the game of politics that he has lost touch with the real world outside it]

    It’s about time that MSM journos with credibility and decency stand up, be counted and call a spade a spade like Hatcher doing here.

    [Morrison is a cheap populist, with form. On that occasion, he was being irresponsible with the national economy. For him it’s just about clever lines.]

    I bet that very clever line of STOP THE BOATS!!!! came from Morrison and his 40 Thieves.

    [The Liberal Party’s temptation to indulge in race-baiting stopped there and reversed. Hockey later confided to a colleague: “I am rock solid with Tony, but I am not selling my soul.”]

    Hmmm Joe, admirable, but you cant have it both ways. In this case, Dubya was right, you either with us or against us.

    [Abbott stepped back too, but without retracting the point of objection. “I thank Scott for saying he went a little too far yesterday. He’s shown a lot of guts this morning.” The great bulk of Liberal Party reaction was harsh. “It was rank opportunism,” said a Liberal frontbencher. “Abbott should have pulled Morrison up immediately,” ]

    Hey what’s the difference. Abbott was urging, cheering and nudging Morrison on.

    [Malcolm Turnbull, Philip Ruddock and others argued strongly against any exploitation of the issues. Abbott, running late, was not in the room. The session was being chaired by the deputy leader, Julia Bishop, who wrapped the debate up by saying: “We have a non-discriminatory immigration policy, and let’s keep it that way.”]

    Hey, did i hear Turnbull, Ruddock, Mesma etc came out and condenmed Morrison. No, no, no, coward, coward, coward.

    [In 2006 Abbott wrote: “Multiculturalism is an invitation to try to understand others’ ways of thinking and living. It’s a form of the Christian maxim, ‘Do to others as you would have them do to you’, an expression of the great universal moral precept on which harmony between people and peace in the wider world ultimately rests.”]

    ai ya ya ya, give me a break. STOP INVOKING CHRISTIANITY!!!!!!!!!!!!. You pathetic scum.

  16. I don’t trust Galaxy. Their results always seem to lean the Coalition’s way compared with other pollsters, up until a couple of days before an election. I always wonder whether their brief is to establish the mood rather than measure it.

    I know all pollsters are rigorous and their reputation wouldn’t be risked by doing that etc etc, but it does have a bit of that feel about it.

    I’m the same way with Morgan, except in the opposite direction.

  17. Ha ha ha, Bung Mike still has some of the remnant of “The Year of Living Dangerously” in him from his adventures in the back alleys of Jakarta:

    [What a shame that his successor in the seat has plunged into the sewer. Scott Morrison, Tony Abbott’s feverishly ambitious spokesman on immigration, is the man who disgraced himself and his party this week by whipping up that furore on the cost of the asylum-seeker funerals.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    It was filthy politics, initially supported by his leader, of course, although public disgust eventually forced the two into a backdown for going, in Abbott’s weasel words, ” a little bit too far”.

    But the stench lingers. As the Herald’s national affairs correspondent, Lenore Taylor, revealed on Thursday, Morrison was pushing the Coalition shadow cabinet to adopt an anti-Islam line as long ago as December. And he has no shortage of support. Abbott’s recent proposal to cut $448 million in funding to Islamic schools in Indonesia was another blast of racist dog-whistling…………….. This is One Nation stuff with a Liberal Party blue ribbon wrapped around it. As Bruce Baird said when I called him on Thursday: ”There’s no doubt the party has shifted to the right. It seems like One Nation is calling the tune. They are going for the blue-collar, right-wing vote. Moderate views in the federal party have largely disappeared.”]

    What did i say before: ONE LIBERAL NATION it is.

  18. Good morning Pbers
    Just been listening to ABC Radio National. Interesting bits on world food shortages and price rises, and the Europeans pushing for banking reform, now they are talking about the Rudolph Steiner farming practices being used in the Paxton’s winery in SA. Apparently they don’t use pesticides etc they use biodynamic farming. Hmmm, I must try some of their wine. (Later, not for breakfast 😆 )

  19. Hartcher has certainly written a cracker of an article today Finns. As you said, it’s about time responsible media members call a spade a spade. If this episode is let through to the keeper it will, as Hartcher comments, be harmful to the national interest.

    I think Coalition politicians had also better start engaging their brain a bit more when they go on the rabid right-wing media like 2GB, Jones and Hadley. The radio announcer may tempt them down the path but it is the politician’s responsibility to jump on bigotry when it raises its ugly head. And they must be unequivocal.

  20. [What did i say before: ONE LIBERAL NATION it is.]
    I think it is a travesty that they get to call themselves ‘Liberal’ when they are to liberal as a blowfly is to a barbeque.

  21. Thanks Finns, I read Hartcher too and thought he had Morrison and the Liberals nailed.

    Also, as Baird implied, views like those of Abbott and Morrison can only survive in the Liberal shadow cabinet if the majority of their peers go along with it. We can just imagine their next rally cry to bigots.

    Stop the Orphans!

  22. Would anyone be able to guide me into how I could access the Galaxy poll that was released in November ( I think ) on federal voting intentions in Queensland ?

    Although my poor old memory is going I think that the poll today is a improvement for labor. i would just like to check.


  23. [I think it is a travesty that they get to call themselves ‘Liberal’ when they are to liberal as a blowfly is to a barbeque.]

    Puffy, the blowflies are innocent 👿

  24. Surprise, business tries to lobby against a new tax, this time a carbon one!

    I hope Labor doesn’t fall for this nonsense. Some businesses will be harmed by a carbon tax. Most not fatally. Some businesses will benefit from it. Mike Rann in SA opened a $300 million wind farm at Waterloo this week. Many more would follow with a carbon tax. So would BHPB’s Olympic Dam mine, a $20 billion investment.

    Also, after the back down on the mining tax, if Labor caves in to business again on the carbon tax, they will be flayed as impotent. IMO the simplest solution by far to making the carbon tax politically acceptable to both business and voters, is to use the revenue to fund cuts in personal and company taxation. Compensating “carbon intensive” industries would just be code for giving the money back to the worst polluters, and won’t fool the average high school kid.

    I have said before that the only specific issue Labor needs to deal with is the La Trobe Valey, plus what to do with some areas with aluminium smelters. Economically neither is a loss – expensive old technology with low jobs per dollar. Just start another industry in each case. Try putting a regional industry (defence?) in the La Trobe Valley. Support the “green triangle” forestry proposals in Portsea. The rest will take care of itself.

  25. Finns – I particularly like the bit where Hartcher virtually calls Morrison a dumb b….d

    [Again, for Morrison it’s just a tricky game of politics and clever lines. A former director of the NSW Liberal Party, he inhabits a world where consequences for himself and his political party are all that matter. There is no other reality. He didn’t care about the boat people, and – being as charitable to him as possible – he mightn’t even have stopped to think about the consequences.]

    Well done Hartcher – if more of the MSM start writing like this we may eventually get a bipartisan position again.

    Many in the Libs will get sick of the RW mob. PVO gave Bernardi a big serve this morning and the panel agreed with him. All 3 said Abbott should get rid of him.

  26. [Apparently they don’t use pesticides etc they use biodynamic farming. Hmmm, I must try some of their wine. (Later, not for breakfast]

    Puff – live dangerously at brekkie time today!!

    Hope your oldie is not in too much distress in Hospital.

  27. Lenore Taylor on leaks, leaks and more leaks.

    SINCE both cabinet and shadow cabinet are springing them, it seems a good time to talk about leaks.

    From a journalist’s point of view, they are terrific but need to be handled with caution, particularly if someone tells you something but doesn’t want their name attached to the information. My rule is that all such information needs to be verified by three or more sources before it makes it into print.

    For politicians, they are terrifying because they don’t know where the damaging information is coming from. But they’re often ridiculously easy to get around by simple ”Hey, look over there” diversionary tactics.


  28. BH
    He is on antibiotics, and is eating a drinking and watching tapes of the UEFA Champions League, so he is not too bad. The big thing is to get him on hios feet and walking again.

    He is in the Lyell McEwin Hospital and the new development has turned it into a beautiful hospital. the architecture and interior design is stunning and our experience of the staff is that they are really switched on and responsive. As you are aware, 90+s have particular needs and usually we have to chase up staff to make sure he gets the care he needs, but the staff in the Lyell Mc are impressive.

    I will have to open a drop today, I made a big hole in my collection of whites over the Summer so I need to bring the reds down too or my bottle racks will look uneven. 👿

  29. Australia’s chief scientist, Prof Penny Sackett, has resigned only half way through her term, for personal and professional reasons:
    Like most people with a scientific understanding of climate change, Prof Sackett is unhappy with Labor’s lack of progress on the issue:
    [Professor Sackett was also understood to be frustrated about a lack of progress in government efforts to address climate change.

    She told the Herald last May she was concerned by the government’s decision to delay its emissions trading legislation.

    ”Any action that is delayed puts us at higher risk of dangerous climate change,” she said.]

  30. Doyley – have you tried looking back through William’s archives or Possum’s.

    I notice that Mike Carlton is saying that it was a Bernardi staffer who wrote the piece about Joe Hockey the other night. Bernardi is the guy who got the email campaign running against the CPRS and Turnbull. Betcha Abbott loves him!

  31. [I don’t trust Galaxy. Their results always seem to lean the Coalition’s way compared with other pollsters, up until a couple of days before an election. I always wonder whether their brief is to establish the mood rather than measure it. ]

    In Queensland once the question

    “Who do you prefer – Rudd v Gillard”

    the mood has been established for the following question

    “Which party would receive you first preference if a fed election ….”

    to show a stronger anti Labor swing that might otherwise be the case.

    I do not trust Galaxy ever since they were caught out fixing the audience at the town hall meetings last year.

  32. Puff,

    Sorry to hear your oldie is in hospital. I hope he has a speedy recovery, although watching those UEFA Champions League games could get his pulses racing!

    Oh, and Puff, no self-respecting wine collector would ever leave their wine racks uneven. 😉

  33. Good to hear that he’s on his feet, Puff.

    Mytbw – agree re all 3. That’s what I’m hoping for with the NSW election. Out with the old and let’s have renewal with more candidates like those 3. They can come from any background, occupation/profession, but we need them to be full of enthusiasm and downright common sense.

    A piece from Anne Summers today in the SMH. It seems that what Alan Jones, Andrew Bolt and others in the MSM liked about JG prior to June 2010 included what they are now complaining about.

    [Being prime minister is a lonely job” as Margaret Thatcher fatuously observed in her memoir in 1993.

    In the eight months since she has assumed the top job Gillard has discovered how lonely one can be while surrounded by people, being on constant call for a non-stop news cycle and having one’s every move, every word and even every outfit dissected with forensic intensity. As deputy prime minister she was admired for explaining things methodically and comprehensively, often in a monotone, never veering off-message; as prime minister, her similar delivery is damned as wooden and robotic. The same clothes that attracted no comment a year ago are now judged as unfitting for a prime minister.]

  34. Socrates,

    The club deserve it. He was a bad bet for their business from the outset and the board deserve to pay in full for their stupidity. (not that Fev deserves the payout).

  35. Bernardi has been busy

    TONY Abbott’s official frontbench understudy has reignited immigration tensions by denouncing Islam as a “totalitarian, political and religious ideology”.

    Liberal parliamentary secretary Cory Bernardi revealed last night he had received death threats after making the comments.

    While the immigration debate usually differentiates between the religion of Islam and extreme fundamentalist interpretations, Senator Bernardi confronted the issue head-on yesterday.

    “Islam itself is the problem – it’s not Muslims,” he told radio station MTR.

    “Muslims are individuals that practise their faith in their own way, but Islam is a totalitarian, political and religious ideology.

    “It tells people everything about how they need to conduct themselves, who they’re allowed to marry and how they’re allowed to treat other people.”

    Senator Bernardi said Islam had “not moved on” since it was founded and that extremists wanted fundamentalist Islamic rule implemented in Australia.

    The senator also inflamed the row over funeral expenses for asylum-seekers by declaring that it was “wrong” for taxpayers to foot the bill.

  36. Where’s Thomas P when you need him to read something – come on, Thomas, start looking at the current situation with a bit more balance. Kev’s thoroughly enjoying himself now that he’s mixing with the diplomatic side of things instead of businessmen and this might be why he looks happier.

    [Gillard’s skills tend to be those that are unable to be observed in the public domain. She is a fixer and a negotiator, and a very good one, as evidenced by getting the crossbenchers to give her a working parliamentary majority and by the health deal.

    I’ve talked with very senior businessmen who have nothing but admiration for her grasp of policy, her ability to negotiate – and her personal charm. Comparisons made by these men with Gillard’s predecessor would make Rudd’s ears burn. They see her as a welcome improvement.]

  37. Andrew Bolt goes in to bat for Bernardi. How unsurprising.

    [Opposition parliamentary secretary Cory Bernardi sounds strident to me, but the difficulty comes in trying to argue against him on the facts, rather than the tone]

    The problem, Bolty-boy, is that tone *does* matter. Tone conveys meaning – even when the actual words you use are dressed up as something else. Bernardi’s tone is quite clear:
    -I’m suspicious of Muslims
    -I think they are trying to destroy our way of life
    -I’d like to restrict them in some way so they know their place.

    Bigot’s hear the tone loud and clear. It justifies their way of thinking and doesn’t challenge their prejudices. They can then vote for someone they believe thinks the same way they do – even though when you look at transcripts the language used has a veneer of respectibility. It’s a vile method of doing politics and there are supposedly decent people in the Liberal Party who know that quite well. It’s time that those people who think of themselves as decent stood up and were counted.

    I won’t be holding my breath.

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