Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. I’m not a sceptic jv.

    I’m prepared to accept the consensus opinion of climate scientists.

    But that does not mean that the science cannot be questioned and it must be taken as gospel.

  2. [Finns has unfriended me on Facebook about a hundred times and I’m not even on Facebook. ]

    Diog, fuuny that. i am not on Fakebook either :kiss:

  3. David, are you a fan of William Shakespeare? Not only was he a good word-smith, he was also an excellent psychologist.
    [To be, or not to be, that is the question:
    Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
    The Slings and Arrows of outrageous fortune;
    Or to take Armes against a Sea of troubles,
    And by opposing end them: To die, to sleep
    No more; and by a sleep to say we end
    The heartache, and the thousand natural shocks
    That flesh is heir to? ’tis a consummation
    Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep
    To sleep, perchance to dream; Aye, there’s the rub,
    For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come,
    When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
    Must give us pause. There’s the respect
    That makes calamity of so long life:
    For who would bear the Whips and Scorns of time,
    The Oppressor’s wrong, the proud man’s Contumely,
    The pangs of disprized love, the Lawes delay,
    The insolence of Office, and the Spurns
    That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,
    When he himself might his quietus make
    With a bare bodkin? Who would there fardels bear,
    To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
    But that the dread of something after death,
    The undiscovered Countrey from whose Bourne
    No traveller returns, puzels the will
    And makes us rather beare those ills we have
    Than fly to others that we know not of?
    Thus conscience doth make cowards of us all,
    And thus the native hue of resolution
    Is sicklied o’re with the pale cast of Thought,
    And enterprises of great pith and moment,
    With this regard their currents turne away,
    And lose the name of Action.—Soft you now,
    The fair Ophelia? Nymph, in thy orisons
    Be all my sinnes remembered.]

  4. ha ha ha

    [After poor polling at the end of the summer of disasters the prime minister’s extended her lead over Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister to 22 points – 53 per cent to 31 per cent.]

  5. [The Oppressor’s wrong, the proud man’s Contumely,
    The pangs of disprized love, the Lawes delay,
    The insolence of Office, and the Spurns
    That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,]



    many here could learn from such wisdom

  6. Latika obviously had a gold fish memory. Rudd and gillard didn’t need to prosecute the case for action on climate change – it had gone to the 07 election as mutually agreed. All they had to do was secure passage of the legislation. But between the not good enough of the greens / the denialists and the Abbott destruction of Malcolm gretch turnbull both the parliament and the consensus failed. Least this time jools is getting the legislation before the sell job – so she doesn’t spend the whole term watching in wonder as the greens and denialists combine to confuse the hell outta everyone and delay actual action another three years or worse if Tony wins.

  7. [I notice that in her 25-word Twitter bio Caroline Overington finds space to announce that she “digs Bob Dylan”. You’d almost think there was some sort of company directive to journos at The Oz to loudly proclaim their enthusiasm for Dylan at every turn, presumably to negate the idea that they’re conservative robots.]

    I doubt very much that Dylan would dig Overington.

    Her comment reminded me of Howard trying to appear cool by say that he liked the music of Bob Dylan, only the music mind you not the voice and certainly not the lyrics. I guess he’s really dig the backing tracks if they ever get released.

  8. Now we know why Newspoll let it lay in the in tray until now…wangers. Time to crack open a bottle and salute Julia and her team, that includes Rudders…well done. And if William will allow….UP YOURS ABBOTT.

  9. [But it is nice to see Abbott suffer a hit in the Approval stakes, whether it was a direct result of the A/S issue or Liberal infighting or whatever]

    madcyril – I don’t think it is just AS issue. When Barnaby Joyce started ranting about the debt and amount of interest being paid per day there were people in the audience laughing at him.

    I think maybe they’ve overdone the hype and people can see through it now and just maybe they are tired of the negative stuff being thrown at the PM.

  10. [vp
    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 9:00 pm | Permalink


    The PM made it very clear in question time that she will consign One Nation and ahem any party that adopts ON policies to the nether regions.

    It wasn’t just what she said, it was the way she said it: her eyes were on fire.]

    And only today we have TP trying to pretend she’s Howard II.

  11. [BK
    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    I have been spontaneoiusly logged off PB on many occasions this past few days. Has anybody else had the same problem?]

    Yep, me too. And ususally I haven’t been able to get back in via wordpress. I have to go to Crikey’s sight, log in there, and move back to PB from Crikey. I was hoping it wasn’t something to do with my using a Mac G3. Are you on Mac, BK?

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