Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. SK

    I am a Lions supporter and believe me, I could scream over the whole deal. It has cost the Lions Bradshaw, Henderson and now Rischitelli, on top of the wasted money. Aargh! But while I agree with your view of the board, I still don’t understand how Fev gets a payout? Whoever drafted that contract should be sacked.

  2. Oh dear, have they got two ping pongs in their groin and an empty brain?

    [Girl at centre of St Kilda photo scandal alleges affair with Nixon
    Caroline Wilson, February 19, 2011

    HIGH-PROFILE player manager Ricky Nixon is facing allegations he had sexual relations with the 17-year-old girl at the centre of the St Kilda online photograph scandal.

    Speaking last night to The Saturday Age, the former Frankston school girl said the affair had begun in recent weeks.

    The girl, who was embroiled in the scandal which saw nude and semi-nude photographs of St Kilda footballers placed on the internet, was last month placed in accommodation paid for by St Kilda.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/girl-at-centre-of-st-kilda-photo-scandal-alleges-affair-with-nixon-20110218-1azv3.html

  4. Pbers,
    This morning Radio National By Design radio program has been talking about the Green School movement in Bali, a not-for-profit that is building schools using bamboo. There is discussion about using natural building products and how our building designs are not suitable for the tropics, as in ‘You don’t need walls.’

  5. [Whoever drafted that contract should be sacked.]

    Whoever thought of recruiting him should seek psychological attention!

    (Rod wonders whether to rub in the results of last night’s matches as well but decides this would be heaping insult upon injury 😉 )

  6. Socrates,

    As a business consultant, I sit there and shake my head. The amount of money wasted on what amounts to bad business decisions across sports clubs truly astounds me. From what I have seen it comes down to board members who are largely ex-players or coaches, petty club politics, and a she’ll be right attitude. If you are a shareholder in any of these clubs you would want to grab them by the you-know-whats and hang them from the highest tree.

    They then bleat about salary caps and not having enough cash to survive.

  9. SK
    [Oh, and Puff, no self-respecting wine collector would ever leave their wine racks uneven.]
    Oh well, (sigh) it is a tough job but someone has to do it!
    😆

  10. World On Fire – Mapping Last Week’s 88 Global Protests

    Feeling like the entire world is on the verge of a global revolution? It’s understandable. According to the attached interactive map, based on Google News data, in the past week, there have been 88 reported instances of protest somewhere in the world.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/world-fire-mapping-last-weeks-88-global-protests?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

  11. Rod

    Yes I switched over to see the new Law and Order episode during last night’s “games”.

    SK

    True, in football we see a lot of multi-million dollar businesses run by completely unqualified ex-footballers. Politically it will probably never happen, but there really is a strong case for taxing all professional sports like any other business. The current waste and extravagance shows it is awash in too much cash. I have also read some well reasoned arguments that some football competitions have become a means of money laundering, not suggesting that a Russian billionaire moves billions out of his country to buy an English soccer team for any reason other than his love of Chelsea.

  15. [Whoever drafted that contract should be sacked.]

    Voss would have has a significant input into the contract. It was he who said that there was no need to put penalties in the contract as the culture at Brisbane was strong enough to keep Fev on the straight and narrow.

    Soon after joining the club captain and Fev were great drinking mates.

  16. From the Paul Kelly article:

    [Faithful to this philosophy Gillard, in her evening speech to the AWU, began by recognising ministers and MPs in the room, starting with the Treasurer “and long-time friend of this union, Wayne Swan, the Assistant Treasurer, Bill Shorten, who has such a special connection to this union, and then other parliamentary colleagues including Mark Bishop, Stephen Conroy, Yvette D’Ath, Don Farrell, David Feeney, Michael Forshaw, Bernie Ripoll is here, Mark Dreyfus, Mark Furner, Ed Husic, Joe Ludwig, Deb O’Neill, Graham Perrett and I think some more that I’ve managed to miss.]

    Check that list! All the plotters named for you.

  17. Keep the faction fight going MTBW. We wouldn’t want the ALP to heal its wounds before the next election would we? That might give them a chance of getting back in and we supporters wouldn’t want that would we?

  18. [“It tells people everything about how they need to conduct themselves, who they’re allowed to marry and how they’re allowed to treat other people.”
    ]

    And other religions don’t?

    And this from a man who uses religion to justify not allowing gay marriage.

  22. [ONE OF THE DELIGHTS of my retirement from breakfast radio is that I no longer have to read The Daily Telegraph to see what the thick end of town, the really stupid people, are doing and saying. ]

    Dave – I agree with Carlton and you for posting it but I heard John Laws spruiking the delights of the Daily Telegraph as the best newspaper in the country and a must read.

    I wonder how much they pay him for that.

  24. Given the talk of an early election in Queensland I would have preferred Galaxy did a state poll up there. That would be very interesting right now.

  25. [Gary

    The factions are continuing to fight the factional wars.]
    And what I said applies to them as well.
    MTBW. You either fight the factional wars and stay out of government (something the Vic ALP were great at years ago) or you solve the differences very quickly and remain or win government.
    I find it strange that we are now having all of this faction stuff in the media just when the Libs are struggling.

  28. Gary

    Its because they can’t help themselves. The Libs are having exactly the same problem. Im sure it contributes to the somewhat tepid support for both sides.

  29. [The factions are continuing to fight the factional wars.]
    As they will. I assume it is part of the culture of the ALP and might even be a good thing in a Darwinesque way. 😆

  30. “South Australian senator Cory Bernardi used several interviews yesterday to insist that multiculturalism had ”obviously failed” and that Mr Morrison had been expressing a ”genuine concern about Australia and the future we’re going to have”.”

    So Morrison DID say what it was claimed he said then.

  31. It’s clear to me that Kevin Andrews and Corey Bernardi are the ones leading the anti-muslim push within the Libs. An agenda happily embraced by Tone and Morrison it would seem. And why haven’t senior Liberals like JBishop spoken publicly to denounce Bernardi’s intolerance?

  32. [Its because they can’t help themselves. The Libs are having exactly the same problem. Im sure it contributes to the somewhat tepid support for both sides.]
    I basically agree with you but 46% PV for the coalition isn’t tepid support I wouldn’t think.

  33. Goshome

    I believe the consensus is that Morrison did say it. According to Oakes, Morrison is pushing to the right to garner more support for a leadership position.

  34. Gary

    [or you solve the differences very quickly and remain or win government.]

    And that is not able to be done by one side alone. The continuing arrogance and self indulgence of the AWU and their acolytes is really very counter productive. Noticed in today’s press even Shorten has gone into self protection mode by trying to distance himself.

    [I find it strange that we are now having all of this faction stuff in the media just when the Libs are struggling.]

    The release date of the review was set months ago in fact it was held off for a couple of weeks so that it would not be released during the weeks of the Parliamentary sittings. A fact which would have been well known to the AWU.

    They really do need to take a “bex” and have a good lie down. Won’t hold my breath
    though!

  38. We have Hockey, Turnbull, Bishop, Morrison, Rob all eyeing the top job.
    I suspect Pyne is working behind the scenes for one side, and Kevin Andrews for the other.

  40. Dio,

    [So Morrison DID say what it was claimed he said then.

    ]

    But more importantly RAbbott ran with it and the media have allowed that all important fact slip under the radar.

  43. http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/44282.html

    Sian Prior: “Labor going nuclear in rush to self destruct”
    [The ALP has been steadily leaking first preference votes to the Greens for over a decade. Not only that, it has been leaking membership, too. When I was working as an environment activist twenty years ago, many of my fellow campaigners were also active members of the ALP, attending local branch meetings, initiating and supporting the passage of green policies through the labyrinthine policy processes of their party. They saw value in working simultaneously with independent interest groups and within a mainstream political party.
    Over time though, most of those people (and the younger campaigners who’ve followed in their footsteps) have migrated to the Greens. Disappointed by ALP policy reversals on key environmental issues like uranium mining and more recently by the parliamentary Labor Party’s spectacular failure to tackle the threats posed by climate change and our unsustainable use of natural resources, green-left activists and voters opted to support a party which puts those concerns at the centre of its policy platform.]
    I agree that it is the loss of any tinge of “green” credentials in Labor that is leaking votes to the Greens. Moving over to Howard-lite has made labor pro-business and pro-mining.

  44. [And that is not able to be done by one side alone.]
    Agreed but the best way to prevent a fight is to keep away from it.
    [They really do need to take a “bex” and have a good lie down. Won’t hold my breath
    though!]
    Agreed.

  47. Doyley

    Just catching up. The figures in the CM this morning from the Galaxy poll show pv as follows:-
    Election 2010 23/25/Nov 2010 16/17 Feb 2011
    ALP 33.6 33 33
    Lib/Nat 47.4 47 48
    Greens 10.9 13 12
    Others 4.2 3 4

    I can’t believe 47% of this state prefer Abbott.

  48. Gary

    my daughter is just about to commence a Uni degree in Electrical Engineering. She thinks Nuclear is the way to go. I nearly fell off my chair when she went into great detail to explain it all.
    Unfortunately, I am not educated enough to have a considered opinion.

  49. Gary

    [Agreed but the best way to prevent a fight is to keep away from it.]

    Something Ludwig and Howes need to learn in a hurry. They are not the Government and neither of them have a seat in the Parliament.

    They need to put their egos in their back pocket and go away!

  50. Gary and victoria

    Sian Prior does set out another view.
    However, the point of the article is not entirely the nuclear argument, it is looking at why Labor votes have leaked to Greens in the pst decade.

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