Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 3 of 55
1 2 3 4 55
  1. MTBW

    I was under the impression that Howes really dislikes Abbott and Co, and supports Julia. So why is he trying to cause instability, apart from the obvious support he needs to garner from the rank and file of his union?

  2. SK

    [need to take a “bex” and have a good lie down]

    Was my comment that Gary copied and posted.

    And yes it is showing my age as my kids remind me!

  3. Victoria

    [I was under the impression that Howes really dislikes Abbott and Co, and supports Julia. So why is he trying to cause instability, apart from the obvious support he needs to garner from the rank and file of his union?]

    Because he is an ego maniac and his view of himself is much larger than the estimation of others.

    Ludwig is a bully. The AWU leadership are a breed of their own.

  4. reflecting back on the week that was, there is no doubt the coalition did achieve some of their goal.
    They certainly got the agenda back on Asylum seekers.
    Low politics for sure, but it will give them a boost in the short term, and perhaps that is all they need for their own internal gameplaying.

  5. [Something Ludwig and Howes need to learn in a hurry. They are not the Government and neither of them have a seat in the Parliament.

    They need to put their egos in their back pocket and go away!]
    But as you said both sides need to do this.

  6. victoria:

    The problem for them is, which seats would the coalition win with taking an anti-muslim position that it doesn’t already have? I can only think of Lindsay.

  7. Victoria

    Like you I was a bit surprised and glad about Hartcher’s article.

    My gut tells me that Abbott is putting an awful lot of his supporters off side.

    For an ex seminarian one would be entitled to expect some sense of decency from him surely. Unfortunately there is none!

  8. lizzie
    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    1/ “I agree that it is the loss of any tinge of “green” credentials in Labor that is leaking votes to the Greens.”

    Rubbish , Labor does not want to be associated with lunatic Greens views Labor is a left values reform Party

    “Moving over to Howard-lite has made labor pro-business and pro-mining.”

    bullshite , norm only morionic green suporters say that

  9. I listened to audio link posted earlier of interview Chris Bowen with Ben Fordham.

    Chris Bowen mentioned the fact that in the past few weeks, Italy has received over 4,000 asylum seekers from Tunisia. Bowen said it was not because Italy had changed its policy, but merely because of the troubles in Tunisia. He was trying to show that push factors is what causes movements not policy changes. Don’t know if he convinced anyone listening though.

  10. Blackdog,

    Thanks a lot for the breakdown.

    Also as a queenslander I cannot understand the popularity of Abbott and the libs here but sadly it does not surprise me.

    With regard to Howes and the government I really don’y think anyone outside of here would even know or care it was happening.

    Significant numbers of labor pollies at the conference. Good to see. Others may disagree but labor needs strong union/government cooperation to ”go forth and prosper”

    Just wish Howes would put his brain into gear before opening his mouth.

  11. [my daughter is just about to commence a Uni degree in Electrical Engineering. She thinks Nuclear is the way to go.]

    Good luck to her, victoria. If that is the way some of the younger ones are thinking then it may not be long before Labor and the Greens will have to compromise on it.

    I’ve thought all along that the reason Abbott has done nothing much on CC is that he will set the nuclear industry off as soon as he gets in – just the way Howard wanted to do it.

  12. confessions

    I am not sure. They must think there are some gains to be made.
    My belief at this point in time, is that the media has a huge role to play. They must reject out of hand any legitimacy the coalition is trying to have on this issue. Once the genie is out of the box, it can get very nasty.

  13. [My belief at this point in time, is that the media has a huge role to play. They must reject out of hand any legitimacy the coalition is trying to have on this issue.]
    I felt there were signs of that this week but how long that will last is anybody’s guess.

  14. victoria,

    Done.

    [ SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @ @latikambourke Abbott is an even bigger grub for not condoning the concerted attacks from Morrison, Bernardi and co. Shame Abbott, Shame.
    1 minute agoFavorite Reply Delete ]

  15. BH

    I am totally uneducated in the area of Nuclear energy. I just think of the negative aspects of it. My daughter has explained it to me in great detail. From her explanation, there are more pros than cons. This is on the basis that everyone wants to continue to have a high standard of modern living. Energy is going to be an issue in the future, one way or another.

  16. I can’t believe 47% of this state prefer Abbott.

    Cognitive Dissonance: when the facts don’t fit the conclusion, change the facts.

    Anna Bligh didn’t do a good job fighting the floods. She CAUSED the floods by mismanaging Wivenhoe Dam.

    Julia Gillard didn’t do a good thing by proposing a levy. She did a BAD thing by turning mate against mate. Centrelink money was spent, but it was MISSPENT on bludgers and shonks.

    When Queensland is rebuilt it will have been rebuilt LATE and WORSE THAN BEFORE. Without hardly a spade being turned we know it will be labelled as “the Queensland Reconstruction Debacle”.

  17. I felt there were signs of that this week but how long that will last is anybody’s gue

    There will be calls for “a mature debate”, which will, of course, be anything but. The next Lebanese shooting tragedy will be headlined: “AND WE WANT THESE PEOPLE HERE?”.

  18. [Significant numbers of labor pollies at the conference. Good to see. Others may disagree but labor needs strong union/government cooperation to ”go forth and prosper”[

    I was pleased to see it. A couple of them are new in this Parliament.

    Why should Labor forget its roots or disassociate itself from them. I’ve never been a unionist or had to belong to one but I’ve seen the value over the years for those who don’t have a strong voice.

    We’d have Howard still in power if it hadn’t been for YRAW. It wasn’t Kev on his own who got Labor over the line.

    The rubbish Howes and Ludwig carried on with this week is nothing compared to the old days. I don’t defend Howes’ comments but in the past he has stood up for asylum seekers and hasn’t been scared to air his views on it. Unfortunately he hasn’t worked out that Kroger used him and not the reverse.

  19. Gary

    If you look at the list of people from the AWU Julia acknowledged at the AWU Conference the other day. You will see the number of MPs who are in the Parliament who owe their position to the AWU who continually picks it’s candidates and then directs them. Why do you think Swan had no comment about the remarks of Howes and Ludwig. Answer he got his seat in Parliament thanks to their support and he is now Deputy PM thanks to their support.

    He will never criticise them.

    The cohort in Parliament backed by the AWU would I imagine be larger by far than any other cohort. That patronage gives the AWU enormous power in the Parliament and in the Party. They have their vote changing block under their control. I think that is very unhealthy for a government. It is also why so many of us are not the least bit happy with the way they act. This is not my idea of democracy.

    By the way I stand corrected if I am wrong but Howes I think originally joined a Left movement when he first became politically active. He then goes to a very right wing one.

    I am absolutely sure that ego and ambition played no part in that decision.

  20. [From her explanation, there are more pros than cons. This is on the basis that everyone wants to continue to have a high standard of modern living. Energy is going to be an issue in the future, one way or another.]

    victoria – that’s how I see the young ones looking at it in the future. We oldies are wary because of the ‘accidents’ and ‘fear’ of it in the past but the young ones are not likely to take any notice of the political fight about it.

    I’m torn on it but good to see that you and your daughter can have a good conversation about it.

  21. BB

    Here in Melbourne in the past couple of years, there were issues regarding Indian Students. Many of these students have part time jobs driving taxis and working in fast food. Over a period of time, some of them were bashed, stabbed etc. This was obviously very disturbing. One Indian student was walking to his job at Hungry Jacks one night. He was stabbed to death. Turned out to be a young (white) teenager who did it. This teenager was with his group of friends when this attack occurred. Cutting a long story short, it has resulted in less Indian students coming to Melbourne to study. Universities are not happy about it, and nor is the Taxi industry for that matter. There was plenty of negative publicity for a while, and even some indications that these students were not welcome. Anyway, for a very long time now there is no reporting of any issues nor any negative publicity.
    Now why would that be the case?

  22. It’s so hot here today so I’m orf to veg out in aircon comfort. Have a good day and don’t roll the pages around too quickly. Takes me ages to catch up! lol

  23. I’ve got Mike Carlton, Peter Hartcher and Lenore Taylor to read in today’s paper: sweet! 🙂

    Will Abbott discipline Bernadi?
    Probably not! 😉

  24. Victoria: Queenslanders do vote!
    At least a poll like this puts pay to the argument that Rudd should leave politics altogether, Julia would be wise to keep him where he is in Foreign Affairs.

  25. [HOWESPAUL | 16 seconds ago
    Great speaking to some of our rank and file activists from Rio Tinto Aluminium today – all determined to stand up and demand wage justice]

  26. Space Kidette@122

    victoria,

    Done.

    SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @ @latikambourke Abbott is an even bigger grub for not condoning the concerted attacks from Morrison, Bernardi and co. Shame Abbott, Shame.
    1 minute agoFavorite Reply Delete

    Don’t mean to be a clever clogs pedant….but please read your tweet again…. 🙂

  27. Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    Gary

    “… !/ Why do you think Swan had no comment about the remarks of Howes and Ludwig.”

    Your prejudise totally clouds reelity
    Julia as PM of whole LABOR GOVT made th rebut unqual , it did not need a chorus and acheive whaty ou desire , an total open war in th Media for zip benefit to labor (Howes big mouth had alrady done enuf damage , plus a diversion from libs splits)

    2/ “Answer he (Swan) got his seat in Parliament thanks to their support and he IS now Deputy PM thanks to their support. ”

    Not so , he is D/PM because he was th most senior Govt Minister once Rudd went , and you will agree what a wonderful Labor MP and Labor Tresurer he has tiurned out to be

    In fact given his key Treasuer’s role in saving us from GFC , wayne Swan is th equal greatest Treasuerer in oz history

  28. [Another poll that says Rudd is preferred to Gillard as Labor leader – the silence about this here is deafening!]

    What do you expect from a poll in QLD?

    Duh

  29. Swan has done well, but so did Keating during the Hawke years and admittedly Costello too.
    Hockey would be a colossal disaster – 11 billion dollar blackholes included. 😉

Comments Page 3 of 55
1 2 3 4 55

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *