Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Victoria

    [HOWESPAUL | 16 seconds ago
    Great speaking to some of our rank and file activists from Rio Tinto Aluminium today – all determined to stand up and demand wage justice]

    Oh please! What a wan**r! Look at me! Look at me!

  2. evan 14,

    can you please direct me to other polls showing Kevin as preferred PM to Julia. Could you please make it after Julia became PM.

    Thankyou.

    PS unless you are a Queenslander you really do not understand how they think up here. Just as WA people are a differnt species at times Queenslanders are the same. They turned against Kev and labor before the last election but now they prefer him. Even Swanny got 15% up here in the latest Galaxy.

    Anyway, eagerly waiting for those polls showing Kev preferred over Julia.

    Cheers.

  6. victoria:

    In a way it’s up to the media to call out the coalition’s racism, but by and large this represents a real opportunity for the government to push back strongly against it like Keating did with Howard’s racist comments about Asians. I’ve been really impressed by Gillard’s and Bowen’s responses so far. I hope they don’t stop now.

  10. [Julia would be wise to keep him where he is in Foreign Affairs.]

    evan14…you state the obvious, what’s your point? There has been no suggestion Julia will be doing anything else, she has been loud in her praise of Kevin.

  11. Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    “Ron
    Appreciate your point of view but we will have to agree to disagree.”

    well lets look at them MTS , your first was Swan not saying anyting , i said Julia said rebut to Howes Surely you can see Swan espec AS th D/PM saying anything does not add anything and could only lite a big public war fire pubicly not to labor’s beneft ??

    (BTW , getting a opublkic rebuk from a PM is prety strong put down reely , and to give Julia suport but not from either Wong (Finance) or Swan (Treasuer) , Julia clevely ensured a Govt Minister rebut from ex senior Unionists as wel of Howes (a Union leeder) via condemns from EX ACTU /Pres’s in both Ferguson and Crean , (rubbing salt into Howes seing they both held far more tops Union jobs than he does)

    as to Swan , after Keevin change , D/PM had to go to Labor’s most Senoir (and one of its stars) Minister in Wayne ?

  15. No doubt Tony Windsor will be over the moon and most of his Armidale electorate will be on NBN by the time of the next election and they will no doubt be happy with his performance. Suck shite Toxic tony.

    [Does the local media coverage reflect the controversy of the national political debate? ”I haven’t seen a bad news story in the local paper,” Penrose says. ”Up here it’s just something for the region, something for the bush.”

    The men in fluoro would probably rather be getting on with their work than providing the backdrop for Conroy’s travelling party, but they chat away amiably. They down tools briefly at the university to accommodate a crew from Four Corners seeking fresh perspective on the story. The crew wants images of Conroy helping to lay down cable.

    Just down the hill, his cabinet colleague Simon Crean has taken the morning shift. Crean, responsible for regional development, is also in town to help sell the broadband network.

    The forum is the baby of independent Tony Windsor, who chose to back Julia Gillard as Prime Minister largely because of the NBN. Armidale is in his electorate and he spruiks the policy as passionately as Conroy.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/pipe-dreams-of-a-faster-future-20110218-1azqa.html

  16. TWO editors from conservative website Menzies House have quit during the fallout from an anonymous article that attacked Liberal Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey.

    Former editor-in-chief Chris Browne, who is also a long-serving staffer to Liberal senator Cory Bernardi, said his decision had nothing to do with the article and it was a coincidence that he had quit two days after the scandal erupted.

    But the site’s contributing editor Terry Barnes, a former senior adviser to Howard government health ministers Tony Abbott and Michael Wooldridge, said he had left because he was concerned about the direction of the publication.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle

  17. Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    Ron
    ‘ Rubbish , Labor does not want to be associated with lunatic Greens views Labor is a left values reform Party ‘

    “You mean like this? ”

    yes , it was politcaly dumb If photograf ben a group luv hug of all luvers of Wilkie , greens , Oaky and wilkie then a diff ‘message’ to public would been sent

    But your fav photograf that wheel out with so much gless on your key bords so often of greens only hugs has allowed a MSN meme of a caolition , and voter perseption labor is influensed by th Greens eg gay marriage , afganistan debates (which for politcal purposes both Abbott and Brown for diff reasons fostar That drives in PART dissatisfied middle aust former 2007 voters TO th th liberals/libs leaning (seeeing since 21/8 Greens aint gone up but Libs /libs leaning has)

    sure that my reply wont satisfy youse , but you’ve been recent supaseded on your top nuancng chair

  18. As PTMD noted Saturday Extra on ABC RN this morning was very interesting and had something for everyone.
    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra/default.htm

    1. How Green is your Super

    A discussion about the Mercer Group’s report – Climate Change Scenarios: Implications for Strategic Asset Allocation.
    [Continued delay in climate change policy action and lack of international coordination could cost institutional investors trillions of dollars over the coming decades, according to research released by Mercer and a group of leading global investors representing around $2 trillion in assets under management]
    http://www.mercer.com/press-releases/1407215

    2. Middle East and Food Security

    Explored the implications of food prices and food shortages for national security in the Middle East.

    3. Regulating the Global Banking Industry

    Highlighted imminent regulatory changes to the GBI by Europe, that it is not quite “business as usual” since the GFC.

    4. Political Panel consisting of Peter Hartcher and Michael Costello, former Labor advisor.

    5. Saad Eddin Ibrahim – A conversation with the influential Egyptian intellectual who was jailed and tortured under the Mubarak regime and has just returned to Egypt from exile in the USA.

    6. Biodynamic Wine

  19. [Another poll that says Rudd is preferred to Gillard as Labor leader – the silence about this here is deafening!]
    evan, such a poll means nothing . JG isn’t going anywhere. Rudd is staying FM. What is there to talk about?

  21. [Former editor-in-chief Chris Browne, who is also a long-serving staffer to Liberal senator Cory Bernardi, said his decision had nothing to do with the article and it was a coincidence that he had quit two days after the scandal erupted.]

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 pull the other one Chris, that one is in use by a certain Mr Morrison

  22. [Great speaking to some of our rank and file activists from Rio Tinto Aluminium today – all determined to stand up and demand wage justice

    Oh please! What a wan**r! Look at me! Look at me!]
    This faction crap is all petty stuff and, MTBW, you’re eagerly following every bit of it.

  23. [Cull is disillusioned by the political debate. The Coalition is just wrong on this, she says. ”We should be building our country on the basis of science. They are uninformed. All this political mumbo jumbo being bandied about: where does the Liberal Party think Australia ends? At the Blue Mountains? I assure you intelligence doesn’t stop at the Blue Mountains. The cost of the NBN doesn’t bother me at all. What price do you put on Australian intellect? We need to look to the future.”]

    Gaffook

    That is a good article. I liked the above quotes from a business owner.

  24. This poll is not surprising, Qld hasn’t changed its opinion much on Ms Gillard since backstabbing Rudd. Only difference now being is she has taken Labor’s poll consistently backwards since then.

    Gillard is still failing in the leadership stakes, and it is hard to understand why people don’t see her as a PM which I gather is the main reason for continued poor Labor polling. Like I have said, yes she would make a great Departmental Secretary of Deputy Secretary, that’s where her abilities are. But leadership seems to be beyond her for some reason.

    Fortunately the Lib’s are managing to make themselves the story for the present, and you can bet Gillard has sacrificed a few cattle to the gods in thanks for that.

    But there is probably more danger for Gillard in the Libs current problems as it will probably at some time lead to a change to the leadership – either a Turnbull or Hockey. Now Gillard was already going to lose to Abbott, against one of the other two she would certainly be miles behind.

    Mid-year knifing of Gillard still on the cards unless she can demonstrate some leadership ability.

  26. [Gary looks like another ‘ hit and run ‘ from evan, his favorite sport]
    evan has the “look at moi” about him I think. He does it for effect.

  27. Geez! What’s going on here!

    A poll from Qld has the Fibs in front and all of a sudden

    It’s a shonky poll

    Kev being PPM is irrelevent

    those ungrateful Qlders should be made to fend for themselves! (Give us back our donations) 👿

    STOP THE LEVY

    G‘day Evan and Finns :kiss:

    Outa here for a breath of fresh air

  30. [Mid-year knifing of Gillard still on the cards unless she can demonstrate some leadership ability.]

    Do you know any other tune TP? That one, you have done to total boredom and you are as usual in lala land

  31. According to this poll Julia and Abbott are on equal PPM , both 47%.

    It doesn’t mention the last poll figures, but I think Abbott was in front.

    I wonder why they didn’t ask preferred Lib/Coal leader?

  34. [Mid-year knifing of Gillard still on the cards unless she can demonstrate some leadership ability.]
    This from a person that thoroughly deplored this action against his beloved Kev. An eye for an eye hey TP? How christian of you. Hatred’s a killer.

  36. Frank Calabrese

    I note you comment about hypothetically if beazley was still in the party.
    I would just like to point out in Wa Beazly was able to win Swan, Cowan,Hasluck and Canning at the same time. Rudd didnt do that in 2007. Just something to contemplate.

  37. [Gary, it’s like the twilight zone here, same old same old comments by the pro Jules and pro Kev bludgers]
    This I totally agree with you on. I’ve constantly said both sides of the argument need to get over it. Some just keep on coming back to it and I have to say Vera it’s been the pro Kev’s of late. I’m both pro Kev and pro JG.

  38. Gary

    [This faction crap is all petty stuff]

    Really! This faction crap determines who will get a seat in Parliament be it State of Federal and even Local Government.

    Who will get to be Leader and Deputy Leader of a Party and who will get a Ministry.

    Who will hold executive positions in branches and both State and Federal Councils and who will be elected to conference positions.

    Hardly petty!

  39. [This faction crap is all petty stuff]
    I actually left out one word MTBW. The word ‘fighting’ and I stand by the petty. Time they all got over themselves.

  40. Vera

    All well here except for another mid 30 degrees day again in Sydney. Same expected for tomorrow last I heard. Hate this level of heat and humidity nearly the end of Summer so we can hope it will soon cool down.

  41. Just spotted this
    Dare I say on a “lighter” note 😀

    THE Exclusive Brethren have been called terrible things in their time, but “fat” was too much for Ron Arkcoll, of Goulburn. He took action. This week, after a long and expensive inquiry, the Mulwaree Shire Council censured Councillor Geoff (Peto) Peterson for intimidating, harassing and abusing the local brethren leader by calling him fat one afternoon last September in the stairwell of the council offices.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/fat-jibe-was-last-straw-councillor-told-to-apologise-to-exclusive-brethren-20110218-1azm1.html

  43. Mytwobobsworth

    That week of high temps had me craving for a holliday at the Antarctic!
    I like warm weather and love swimming but that was beyond a joke

  45. Vera

    [I like warm weather and love swimming but that was beyond a joke]

    It worries me that it is going to get worse. I really worry how some of the elderly living in high rise towers in one bedroom flats get on. It has been unbearable.

  47. Amigo Vera, allo’ allo’ allo’

    – we have been doing a lot Labor hacks stacking lately here on PB. Unfortunately, i ended up at the bottom.

    Thanks for the boogie boogie. Still singing the old sweet songs :kiss:

  49. Lizzie
    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 11:00 am | Permalink
    1/ “I agree that it is the loss of any tinge of “green” credentials in Labor that is leaking votes to the Greens.”

    2/ “Moving over to Howard-lite has made labor pro-business and pro-mining.”

    3/ “Ron What ideas have you for increasing support for the Labor Party?”
    answering in reverse order , quite a lot , in polisy wise , structure wise , in tactics, in messaging w/o spin merchants , dismisin gotcha Q’s briefly then giivng A in detail on what labor does , distancing for greens clearly so its brand is clear as most ord aussies dont like greens vies with good reasons tho many seem quiet attractive rill looked at close , rebuts daily to any Abbott or brown attacks , stop kicking so many own goals that it creats by all by itself and it cannt blame anyones else for , etc etc

    your points 1/ and 2/ , well here is short sample of acheivements HAPPENED by this Labor Govt of core left reforms , that make your coments baseless of what labor is from actual govt changes

    GFC -saved oz from GFC recession , whereas factualy one see every othr advance econamy is in ruins with high unelpoy & high debt

    Low unemploy , and rest of world has approx 10% plus unemploy with all that brings
    Work Choices gutted ,
    apprentises program focus to incr these no’s ,
    “Trade” Schools incr & integrate ,
    NBN Govt own tch break thru for all oz ,
    Supa Mining profts Tax so oz peoples share our minerals boom , never had one bfore
    Cliimate Change tacked thru a 23% co2 reduction 2011-2020 Bill , Libs/Greens stopd
    R E program for further CC tackling via 20% RA use by 2020 ,
    Insulation Rollout to 1.4 mill homes ie 3 mill people , reduces co2 ,& incr live quality
    MRB authority to save murrays , with States seding some there Constit water powers
    A-S program , axed TPV’s, out a-S direct under UNHRC supavision , othr compassionate changes whilst still protectin our Soverein oz Borders ,

    PPL , equuity based historic first for famlitys when new babys is born
    Laptops in 9500 schools to incr equity of opportunity & incr learn ablility for all kids
    Science & libraries blocks built accroos all Schools incr equity & chanses for all kids
    Nat Educ Sylabus to get higher std quality educ across oz , & with cheks
    Literacy & Numerasy focused programs in Schools
    Hex changed for more equity
    Uni places incr by over 10K
    Schools Fund formula under revierew when current binding Agree with States expires Pre Schools quality stds implamented
    Doc’s & Nurses no’s incr,
    Cancer clinics built
    Publics Hosopitals funding dramatic $ incr , after Abbott pinched 1 bill from it
    Supa gp clinics built
    Hospitals Nat delivery for patients reformd with require Hospitel benchmarks applyin Priv Health Rebate means tested to give equity of oz payers funds , prev a rort
    Schooll exps deducabability for familys incl uniforms incr
    Child rebates incr ,
    Dental program free for teenys ,
    Homeless minize program thru incr Bld & renovate program to
    Rent afford program for low incomers
    Youth allowanse program
    Pensions , biggest incr in oz history , and properly indexed3 yr tax cuts for low/middle incomers but not for th richys (Howards richys taz decr axed)

    Bank competing against th big 4 incr via g’tees to 2nd level ‘bankers’ , zap exit fees ,
    Iraq troops withdrawn ,
    Appologys , 2 , both historic firsts , & Labor’s left conviction in so doing is forever
    Spec Aboriginee Ladies Clinics intro to reduce aboriginee kids deaths gap , etc
    Remove Gay discrim via 100 changes to gay laws to remove discrim accross fed laws incl tax & supa , & made gay cuples equal rites to Hextro Defacto couples

    Infastructure invest $’s of historic high values for oz future , & more now $’s ex MMRT
    White Defense of oz more flexible based long term
    Whales protection via suing Japenese in international Court
    Budget in surplus in 3 yrs ,

    prob is a hell of lot more i’ve missed listing

  50. blackdog @181,

    Exactly.

    Thats why I was interested in the last queensland galaxy.

    As well I think polls re the levy are very dependent on the question being asked.

    Anyway, who cares either way at the moment re TPP or PV in any poll. If labor is in front so be it if Libs in front so be it. Everyone will end up as a basket case if we worry too much at the moment about weekly polls. Obvious, labor needs some work but it is getting done.

    Re Kev and Julia. I agree with Gary. It has been done to death.
    i was a strong supporter of Kev as PM, I am now a strong supporter of Julia as PM.

    The king is dead, long live the queen. It really is time to move on and support the leader of the party.

    Just one last question that has interested me. Who determines the questions asked and the wording of the questions in these polls Would it be the person/organization paying for the poll or the polling company which would determine the questions based on general topics from the buyer of the poll ?

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