Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy Research poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, covering 800 respondents. It shows the situation very much as it was on election day: Labor is on 33 per cent of the primary vote (33.6 per cent at the election), the Coalition 47.4 per cent (48 per cent) and the Greens 12 per cent (10.9 per cent). All changes are well and truly within the poll’s 3.5 per cent margin of error. The two party preferred result is 55-45, which is a) much better for Labor than the 61-39 which contributed to Monday’s 54-46 Nielsen poll, b) worse for them than the 52-48 in the October-to-December quarter from Newspoll, and c) spot on the election result of 55.1-44.9. The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 44 per cent to 33 per cent lead: I believe this isn’t the first time a poll has made such a finding, but can’t locate an example. We are also told support for the flood levy was at 49 per cent, and that two-thirds believe it’s too early to tell how the minority government arrangement is panning out.

UPDATE (20/2/2011): Essential Research has Labor back in front for the first time since October, edging up from 50-50 to 51-49 on two-party preferred. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote: Labor to 39 per cent, the Coalition to 43 per cent (their lowest since September), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Essential have thrown Julia Gillard a curve-ball by asking directly if they think she has been a better or worse prime minister than Kevin Rudd, on which she loses out 28 per cent to 33 per cent. There are further questions on the health reform deal, which a) has 67 per cent approval and 9 per cent disapproval, b) has 49 per cent thinking it will improve the system against 34 per cent no difference, and c) has 51 per cent thinking the federal Coalition should support it against 11 per cent oppose, 10 per cent “neither support nor oppose” and 28 per cent don’t know. The poll also finds 56 per cent approving of higher taxes on large mining companies against 27 per cent who disapprove, with very similar figures (56 per cent and 24 per cent) when the qualification is added that the funds be used to provide superannuation for all workers”.

UPDATE 2: This week’s Essential Research supplementary question held back for Channel Ten asked: who (out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott) do you trust most to deliver good policies? The result went 40 per cent to 31 per cent in favour of Gillard, with razor-sharp divides along party lines. Greens supporters were as emphatically anti-Abbott as Labor’s, while Coalition supporters were just slightly more inclined than Labor’s to cross the floor or answer “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,718 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  2. Danny Lewis@2510

    And “people under their Authority” – ie Employers, Teachers etc.

    Or, arguably, anyone with whom there is a lopsided power relationship

    That is awfully difficult in practice. We’d have to turn the MCG into a local court during the week. Define ‘lopsided power relationship’:
    Owing money? Being 5, 10, 15, or 20+ years older? Being very attractive and ‘blinding’ the other party? Being much more intelligent and/or articulate than the other party? Having greater life experience even though younger? Helping a very grateful neighbour out fixing a serious problem for them?

    A moment’s thought tells you the value of that concept.

  4. What the hell are we doing mining Coal Seam Gas and wrecking the Great Artesian Basin? These politicians are trusting a resource thing to do the right thing?

  5. [The age of consent in WA is 16 as it is in every Australian State

    That’s fair enough. Plenty of guys around 18 had their own cars when I was about that age and dated girls around 17.]

    Except Tasmania and SA, where it is still 17. Some forms of homosexual relationships and particular sexual practices invoke different age requirements in some states, too.

  9. [jaundiced view

    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Danny Lewis@2510

    And “people under their Authority” – ie Employers, Teachers etc.

    Or, arguably, anyone with whom there is a lopsided power relationship

    That is awfully difficult in practice. We’d have to turn the MCG into a local court during the week. Define ‘lopsided power relationship’:
    Owing money? Being 5, 10, 15, or 20+ years older? Being very attractive and ‘blinding’ the other party? Being much more intelligent and/or articulate than the other party? Having greater life experience even though younger? Helping a very grateful neighbour out fixing a serious problem for them?

    A moment’s thought tells you the value of that concept.
    ]

    and this even inspired a movie:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY0dwGvJiBs

  11. Frank,
    [but #OhMike did – and they lapped it up]
    I was there. Listened for 2 minutes, then filled up by glass and spent 6 mins doing other things. Cory should be consigned.

  14. Hi Bilbo,
    Any chance of a thread on the Irish election on Friday. It is always good for a robust discussion particularly as it looks like Sinn Fein may become the official opposition.
    (admittedly most of the PBers interested in Ireland seem to have been quiet lately)

  17. Rod Hagen@2555

    Except Tasmania and SA, where it is still 17. Some forms of homosexual relationships and particular sexual practices invoke different age requirements in some states, too.

    While we’re at it, I think the perving age should be closed off at 60. Can’t have all those dirty old fossils whizzing around on their scooters and frames mentally undressing our young people. Especially with an ageing population.

  20. [Ru

    you have avoided the issue of power and influence]

    And you Gus have overlooked the fact that sexual attractiveness is a potent form of power in itself.

    But you’re right about one thing. There’s a lot about the human condition that isn’t very classy – and I don’t think any of us here should be taking a holier than thou attitude..

  22. Crikey, Gus, you had me stumped there, so I had to check out “mysognist” as I had never come across it before.

    Wiki came up with this: “Did you mean: misogynist”, so I guess one of you is wRONg! 😉

  26. The ALP should be assisting these communities defend their land and our natural heritage from a rape-it-and-leave-it coal seam gas industry.

  27. Fracking gas for battlestar gallactica fans – listened to gas lobby person and maker o doco – lobby man did not come off well.

  35. Thanks – it will be an interesting election as FF (who have mostly been in power since De Valera was a boy) are on 16% in the polls and falling.

  37. [and I don’t think any of us here should be taking a holier than thou attitude]

    St Facial shows his true colours.

    Give yourself an uppercut!

  41. [Centre

    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    and I don’t think any of us here should be taking a holier than thou attitude

    St Facial shows his true colours.

    Give yourself an uppercut!
    ]

    and with a comment directed at Scorps that even I wouldn’t use.

  47. I notice that in her 25-word Twitter bio Caroline Overington finds space to announce that she “digs Bob Dylan”. You’d almost think there was some sort of company directive to journos at The Oz to loudly proclaim their enthusiasm for Dylan at every turn, presumably to negate the idea that they’re conservative robots.

  49. Well I just popped in for my mental stimulation for the evening and what do I read?

    Stop the Schoolgirls!

    On a more intellectual note, Australia now 2-140 in the 31st over vs Zimbabwe, Watson just out for 79. Seems to be a slow wicket. I hope our spinners don’t bowl short.

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