The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.
UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.
Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.
More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.
UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.
[gus – It’s True.
But of course you are living in 1972 world.]
frank
you OBVIOUSLY havent been to the ABS site
your ignorance only encourages the fib petulance
[HOWIE ROOTED THE SOCIAL FABRIC]
Yes, he certainly did.
[A lot of those Aged Care Workers are from Non English Speaking Backgrounds, and are poorly educated
crass and very poor form ]
Along the lines of his references to “the great unwashed” which reflects a rather condescending and elitist attitude IMHO 😉
So, how else do we help voters reconnect, not just with the ALP or whatever, but with government itself?
fess
the real underside of oz society is not pretty
many many peeps are truly struggling
ANY REPEAT ANY SOLUTION seems better than what they face
we are seeing a dysfunctional society trying to find its way
HOWIE F@#$%^&* THE SOCIAL FABRIC
[zoomster
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:16 pm | Permalink
I’m not sure that widening eligibility for votes in preselections is a good idea.
If you really want to split branches, make people feel disenfranchised, cause mass resignations and create a group of people whose one aim in life is to undermine your candidate….go through a nice, open democratic preselection process.
It’s like the old Hillary/Obama flame wars here. People take sides (and the more candidates there are, the more divisions are thus created). They put a lot of time and energy into supporting their person, and do the usual things people do when they place all their hopes in one basket – find all the possible reasons why all the other contenders are not only certain losers, but also morally repugnant (and probably smell funny).
So when you finally get a candidate selected, you’ve got groups who supported other candidates who are utterly convinced that the chosen one isn’t up to the job. Confirmation bias gets to work, and the rest of the campaign is carried on with the background murmur of constant criticism, if not outright undermining of the chosen candidate.
(After one preselection, which I won, a branch member went to every single event I attended, simply so that he could take me aside at some stage and tell me I should resign immediately).
I’ve never ever seen a preselection battle which has ended with everyone united, smiling and moving forward together. In some cases, the bitterness created has lasted for years.
I’m not sure you can avoid that – it might be a necessary part of democratic party decison making.
But to expand the number of voters will surely just expand the problem.
Instead of just having party members – who, one hopes, will put their party loyalties first when it matters – feeling disappointed that their candidate didn’t get up, there’ll also be a number of people in the community (who, ordinarily, wouldn’t have known anything about the preselection process until a candidate was chosen) who don’t have the same depth of loyalty but feel disenfranchised and disillusioned because their candidate didn’t get up.
I hate preselections. They’re messy, cause ill feeling, and exhaust energies which would be better spent on the actual campaign.
I don’t know if there’s a better way of preselecting candidates, which would avoid these problems, but I can’t see that p**ing off more people is a good idea.
]
I agree – the 2008 Swan Hills campaign is a case in point – I supported the local candidate during pre-selection =- and as predicted the preferred candidate via Head Office won.
I was disappointed – but guess what, I carried on and supported the candidate – unkile the loser, who campaigned for the now state Shadow Treasurer – and others who refused to help.
Oh and this person, who has since resigned – snubbed Jaye Radisich’s farewell dinner – because the successful Candidate was there – even though he and his wife were the President and Vice President of the local Branch.
Talk about loyalty.
[Gusface
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:18 pm | Permalink
gus – It’s True.
But of course you are living in 1972 world.
frank
you OBVIOUSLY havent been to the ABS site
your ignorance only encourages the fib petulance
]
Who needs the ABS – I’ve seen it first hand in Public hospitals.
[““the great unwashed” which reflects a rather condescending and elitist attitude IMHO” ]
Are we talking about the bloody Poms? They are very class conscious and snobbish.
[Pegasus
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:20 pm | Permalink
A lot of those Aged Care Workers are from Non English Speaking Backgrounds, and are poorly educated
crass and very poor form
Along the lines of his references to “the great unwashed” which reflects a rather condescending and elitist attitude IMHO
]
What a load of Codswallop.
[Who needs the ABS – I’ve seen it first hand in Public hospitals.]
Yes, who needs facts and objective evidence? Subjective perception and limited experience is all that is required to understand what is going on.
FYI, you can also be condescending and elitist looking from the working class down on everybody else. Just saying.
Gus:
It will take some time to fully depart from Howardia. The representation of ALP Caucus is only a small part of that solution in my view.
Someone was talking earlier about Chris Smith on 2GB: perhaps the nastiest of the Liberal shock jocks, and a colossal hypocrite too, considering that he almost got fired a year or so ago for getting drunk at the Christmas Party & then making sexual advances to female staff members.
This is the sort of grub that Abbott relies upon to get out his message.
[6408
The Finnigans
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink
““the great unwashed” which reflects a rather condescending and elitist attitude IMHO”
Are we talking about the bloody Poms? They are very class conscious and snobbish.
]
I think that also applies to certain members of The Greens – especially those residing in Bilbo’s Neighbourhood.
frank
where i live
we have NH
not one wog or slopey employed
all base wagers
and i mean base wagers
my bro’s eldest is an ain, all her cohort are anglo
FMD
frank go the abs
you will find the great unwashed are mainly the FOWF brigade
wifull ignorance dont cut it on this issue
ps you really should stop slagging of the migrant class, per capita they shit on anglo’s
How am I doing Frank in discussing the issues?
[Pegasus
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:27 pm | Permalink
Who needs the ABS – I’ve seen it first hand in Public hospitals.
Yes, who needs facts and objective evidence? Subjective perception and limited experience is all that is required to understand what is going on.
]
It’s called living in the REAL World, as opposed to Fantasy Island – the natural habitat of Greens supporters.
peg
play the issue
and issue facts
dont repeat dont respond to the barbs
stick to facts only
Forget the blue collar workers, the unwashed, put more women in Parliament.
Gus, Fess has it all over you, admit defeat.
[Feb 18, 2011, Women have gift of the gab over men
LONDON – WOMEN communicate better than men and actually talk less, researchers said on Friday.
Men speak more words than women in a day, but have a weaker command of language in social situations, use the same words repeatedly and pay unconvincing compliments, British researchers said after studying how men and women communicate.
Manchester University researchers found that when conversation centred on serious issues such as current affairs men and women used similar language, but they differed widely when it came to chit-chat in social situations.
The women in the research commissioned by British female-friendly insurance firm Sheilas’ Wheels had superior communication skills and used a wider variety of words in social situations, while men struggled with their command of language.
‘It is men who are more likely to talk for the sake of talking when engaged in social chit-chat by recycling their words with ritualistic and redundant language that doesn’t contain new information,’ Manchester University researcher Geoffrey Beattie said.
The team of researchers carried recording devices over a one week period in order to transcribe 50 conversations, which were split between men and women in serious and social conversations. — REUTERS]
finns
nil desperandum
[Gusface
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:27 pm | Permalink
frank
where i live
we have NH
not one wog or slopey employed
all base wagers
and i mean base wagers
my bro’s eldest is an ain, all her cohort are anglo
FMD
frank go the abs
you will find the great unwashed are mainly the FOWF brigade
wifull ignorance dont cut it on this issue
ps you really should stop slagging of the migrant class, per capita they shit on anglo’s
]
Wogs and Slopes (Your term btw)under 45 are now in Professional jobsand are studying in University.
Maybe Civics should be mandatory in high school, like at least a unit of it in year 11 or something. And in this subject, you are exclusively taught how our system works and what not. Not like a legal class which focuses on the legal and judicial aspects of the constitution and legislation but rather one that talks about the actual political system and the realities of it (neither from a cynical, Utopian or partisan point of view)
Sometimes the focus group results come in too late; the damage has been done:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-takes-time-to-find-voice-of-compassion-for-funerals-20110215-1av7b.html
[Wogs and Slopes (Your term btw)under 45 are now in Professional jobsand are studying in University.]
frank
slowly you are getting there padawan
next try the same spread across the anglo class
WHEN THE BELL RINGS IN YOUR HEAD
let me know
[6424
Gusface
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
Wogs and Slopes (Your term btw)under 45 are now in Professional jobsand are studying in University.
frank
slowly you are getting there padawan
next try the same spread across the anglo class
WHEN THE BELL RINGS IN YOUR HEAD
let me know
]
But their parents on the other hand areth nes woking in Aged Care and in Hospital as cleaners, Kitchenhands, Orderlies etc.
[Forget the blue collar workers, the unwashed, put more women in Parliament.]
Women, indigenous Australians, non-caucasian Australian, LGBT Australians. And don’t just dump them on the backbench or in the Senate. Make them visible. Let the people know these are their representatives and they work just as hard for you as their hetero white male counterparts.
[6423
fredn
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
Sometimes the focus group results come in too late; the damage has been done:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-takes-time-to-find-voice-of-compassion-for-funerals-20110215-1av7b.html
]
Um, the PM was in NZ when the Story broke – she made the appropriate comments on her eturn.
frank
with respect
the worm has turned
pls go to the abs site
digest the FACTS
ruminate on the trens shown there
postulate on what and where we stand as a society
engage critical thinking
Now what were you saying
😉
[the damage has been done:]
What damage? Some keyboard crusaders spilled their chips over their flabby man boobs?
pebbs
cos of your injudicious grenade you are in the sinbin
(only short term)
[Gusface
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:36 pm | Permalink
frank
with respect
the worm has turned
pls go to the abs site
digest the FACTS
ruminate on the trens shown there
postulate on what and where we stand as a society
engage critical thinking
Now what were you saying
]
ABS – is not the be and end all.
The real world is.
I’m afraid your forays on Fantasy Island have clouded your judgement.
[pebbs
cos of your injudicious grenade you are in the sinbin
(only short term)]
Sorry, William.
Gusface,
[peg
play the issue
and issue facts
dont repeat dont respond to the barbs
stick to facts only]
Seriously funny 😀
I suggest you had better direct that to TSOP (see his comment at 6411), Frank, and just about everyone else here including yourself then 😉
I will leave you to it.
frank
FMD
dude you are on a polling site and you state the ABS is irrelevant
FFO
selective or what
🙁
peg
glad you got a chuckle
i can but try
😉
Hi all.
Just a small contribution to the discussion.
This term ‘union hacks’. I would lke to make a distinction. I am active in my union and find there are two types: professional ‘organisers’ who often have never worked in the field and spend all their time politicking, and actual union reps draw from the rank and file who are fighting for members because the actually know the issues. Two very different species. Both end up as MPs. Different kettles of fish though. It is a shame mnay really great unionist get tarred with the same brush.
Apologies for all the typos – have some kind of bug.
[TSOP (see his comment at 6411)]
What was wrong with it, may I ask?
It is a fair thing to say class elitism can go both ways if you’re not careful.
Bug as in illness not as in insect. 🙂
Grog’s Gamut
“I think the ALP sense that the community is shifting its views on the issue and that finally the time has come for it to show some backbone. ”
The focus group must have reported, finally we might see some sense when it comes to asylum seekers. Nothing like a funeral for a few to realise the nasty little gollum’s have gone too far.
Frank you will have to return to base for retraining.
I will however take my comment at 6429 back. It was uncalled for.
[6434
Gusface
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:40 pm | Permalink
frank
FMD
dude you are on a polling site and you state the ABS is irrelevant
FFO
selective or what
]
The ABS, along with Polls are not the be all and end all.
To rely soley on those to base your argument is dangerous.
and yet you criticised Arbib/Bitar for using exactly the same tools what you are advocating.
[fredn
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:44 pm | Permalink
Grog’s Gamut
“I think the ALP sense that the community is shifting its views on the issue and that finally the time has come for it to show some backbone. ”
The focus group must have reported, finally we might see some sense when it comes to asylum seekers. Nothing like a funeral for a few to realise the nasty little gollum’s have gone too far.
Frank you will have to return to base for retraining.
]
Stick to formulating policies from One Natioon.
gwen
no issue with union hacks
mostly salt of the earth
I was specifically referring to the “mix’ of the ALP crop
the fibs of course require a different sort of organiser
🙁
[pebbs
cos of your injudicious grenade you are in the sinbin
(only short term)
Sorry, William.]
pebbs
srsly
you are way better than cheap shots
“Stick to formulating policies from One Natioon.”
One nation is to the left of Labor? Labor to the right of one nation. You have miss understood or missed your retaining Frank.
Given events of the recent days I’m staggered that no news service tells us whether Seena and the other CI funeral attendees are still stuck in Derby because of the cyclone or back in CI!!
Anyone know the answer?
[fredn
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:53 pm | Permalink
“Stick to formulating policies from One Natioon.”
One nation is to the left of Labor? Labor to the right of one nation. You have miss understood or missed your retaining Frank.
]
No, You are the liberal Hack here.
Your mates Morrison and Abbott are chasnneling One Nation.
More from Grog.
“OK, let’s put this in context. The Oz’s figures are based on a mere 165 appeals. And of that 165, only 75 per cent were successful, so we’re talking around 124 people. My God, how did we find room for them all?
I expect the ALP will continue to hammer Morrison on this, and any time Morrison or Abbott try and bring up the issue of asylum seekers in Parliament expect this story to be shoved back down their throat. The ALP may finally be moving back to a party of true compassion on this issue, and for that we may thank one 9 year old boy…”
Diog finds pronouncements easier than actual research and facts surely frank can or is it only for drs?