Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.

UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.

Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.

More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.

UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,529 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. The era of a large component of ‘blue collar’ members of the ALP in parliament has passed in large part because the structure of the workforce has changed. Whereas not so long ago about 4% of students went on to tertiary education, it is now about 40%.

    And even ‘blue collar’ work has changed it’s nature. A miner these days will sit in an air-conditioned cab of a machine that can be controlled with one finger. The main occupational hazard they face is falling asleep on the job from boredom.

    This is a far cry from the first half of the 20th Century.

  2. [Wow, it’s lovely to know this generation have to be boilermakers to have the political insight to run this country. Nice.]

    pebbs

    that is below your normal output, anyway nice to see you lob a grenade

    🙁

  4. We all know what happens to those who aspire to parliament without policy comprehension.
    Remember Pauline Hanson trying to explain a policy, any policy? 😀

  5. [bemused

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    The era of a large component of ‘blue collar’ members of the ALP in parliament has passed in large part because the structure of the workforce has changed. Whereas not so long ago about 4% of students went on to tertiary education, it is now about 40%.

    And even ‘blue collar’ work has changed it’s nature. A miner these days will sit in an air-conditioned cab of a machine that can be controlled with one finger. The main occupational hazard they face is falling asleep on the job from boredom.

    This is a far cry from the first half of the 20th Century.
    ]
    and a lot of Train Drivers – especially in the mining Sector are controlling their trains from a PC in an Air-Conditioned Building in the CBD.

  7. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    frank

    so aged care workers
    factory workers
    cleaners
    etc

    are not blue collar

    FMD

    ostriches aint just in africa
    ]

    They are, but you specified Blue Collar Workers like Chifley etc.

  8. Now this is what i call “REVOLUTION”.

    [Fighting back against Berlusconi: Italian women take to the streets – Italian women finally came out to protest against their sexist, billionaire leader. What took them so long?

    The massive protest against sexism – seemingly endorsed and promoted by a prime minister accused of paying for sex with an underage prostitute and abusing his office – was a watershed in a country that for years has condoned the antics of Silvio Berlusconi, as well as the Benny Hill-style use of women’s bodies on Italian TV.

    So why did the revolution (and this does really feel like a cultural revolution to a lot of Italians) take so long? First, the problem had been around for a long time and people had got used to living with it. The trigger that allowed these pent-up frustrations to flow was Rubygate, the affair that culminated this week in Berlusconi being sent for trial on vice charges.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/feb/18/fighting-back-against-berlusconi-italian-women

    STOP RUBY BERLUSCONI!!!!

  10. bemused
    I just think that parliament is so much harder these days. Gone are the days when your ability or greatness rested on your performance at public ralleys. 😀

  11. [They are, but you specified Blue Collar Workers like Chifley etc.]

    FFO

    frank

    stop making shit up

    I sepcefically said blue collar

    you can spin it into chifley, if it suits you

    but dude, a cleaner is a frigging cleaner

    CAPECHE

  12. Frank @ 6355

    Good to be agreeing with you for a change.

    The structure of the workforce has changed massively over the last 50 years.

    Blue collar workers like Chifley also studied a lot after hours and may not have gained formal qualifications but became quite learned. These days a young ‘Chifley’ would go to university and gain employment as a graduate.

  16. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    They are, but you specified Blue Collar Workers like Chifley etc.

    FFO

    frank

    stop making shit up

    I sepcefically said blue collar

    you can spin it into chifley, if it suits you

    but dude, a cleaner is a frigging cleaner

    CAPECHE
    ]

    and how many of those Blue Collar workers are Union Members again ??

    A lot are Migrants who struggle with English at work – can you imagine them dealing with speaking in Parliament ?

  17. frank

    Ok

    here goes

    go to the ABS site

    check the demogrphic spread

    check out the AWE

    now once you have digested that

    do the age breakdowns

    cool

    take a few breaths

    now do a correlation

    relax

    then post what you have learned

    then tell me again about blue collar workers

    ps the data was senta s part of my submission

  22. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    frank

    Ok

    here goes

    go to the ABS site

    check the demogrphic spread

    check out the AWE

    now once you have digested that

    do the age breakdowns

    cool

    take a few breaths

    now do a correlation

    relax

    then post what you have learned

    then tell me again about blue collar workers

    ps the data was senta s part of my submission
    ]
    and how many are Union Members again ??

  25. [6374

    Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    frank

    *headdesk*

    ]

    Gus,

    It is no longer 1972 – more and more Blue Collar Workers are neither members of the ALP or a Union, and in fact, are more likely to vote Liberal – even if it is against their interests.

    The Me Generation plays a big part of this.

  26. [Eighteen days in Egypt changed all that. The movement didn’t just overthrow a dictator]

    Dee, yes, the dictator is “gorn” and the dictator’s poodle. The dictator might have the last laugh.

  29. Gus:

    You haven’t answered what is your case? You’ve highlighted the lack of blue collar workers amongst Labor MPs, but haven’t really argued why this is an issue.

  30. fess

    sorry

    i stated that no current alp fed parL was a blue collar

    the rider was under 45

    i also attached factual evidence from the ABS etc

    I was hoping to encourage debate as to why it is so

    the welter of red herrings is too much to deal with

    my point was simply stating a FACT and suggesting a SOLUTION

    silly moi

    🙁

  31. [so aged care workers
    factory workers
    cleaners
    etc
    are not blue collar]
    A Labor government in power and guess who got screwed.

    May 2010: http://www.australianageingagenda.com.au/2010/05/18/article/Wage-increase-for-low-paid-aged-care-workers/VSUQUGQTVZ
    [Despite being the poorest workers in Australia, minimum award wage earners did not receive a wage increase last year due to a global financial crisis wage freeze.

    Minimum wage workers have not had a pay rise since October 2008. The ACTU estimates that, since then, their wages have gone backwards by up to $19.50 in real terms.

    This will include low-paid aged care enrolled nurses, carers, cleaners, cooks, kitchen workers, drivers and gardeners.

    “Award dependaent workers last year got a zero increase so it will be more than 18 months for them to get an increase now,” said Ms Lines.

    “If you look at the time that they have gone without an increase, $27 isn’t going to cover the cost of living increases that low-paid workers have had to bear.”]

  34. [Pegasus

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    so aged care workers
    factory workers
    cleaners
    etc
    are not blue collar

    A Labor government in power and guess who got screwed.

    ]

    Thank you Sir Paste a Lot.

    I see you are competing with Adfam as to being the Shadow minister for Googling after Andrew Robb.

  35. Mesma has friend in high places:

    [18 February 2011 Last updated at 11:16 GMT – German ‘plagiarism’ minister Guttenberg drops PhD – German Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg has temporarily renounced his PhD following accusations of plagiarism.

    German media allege several passages of his 2006 thesis were lifted from other people’s work……………..Instead, he was called to a meeting with Mrs Merkel in Berlin to discuss the swirl of allegations which has led to the ZDF television website dubbing him “Zu Copyberg”, Financial Times Deutschland naming him “Baron Cut-and-Paste”, and Berlin daily Tageszeitung nicknaming him “Zu Googleberg”.

    The popular minister rejected as “absurd” initial reports in the Suddeutsche Zeitung that one passage was copied word for word from a newspaper article and another was taken from a public lecture, without attribution.

    Spiegel magazine reported that the minister had also used a paragraph from the US Embassy website without attribution and the list of alleged instances of plagiarism has continued to grow as journalists and internet-users pore over its contents.]

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12504347

    and what about Twittenberg?

  37. [confessions

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Gus:

    Let’s bring in more blue collar workers and see if it makes a difference. You can only try!
    ]

    A lot of those Aged Care Workers are from Non English Speaking Backgrounds, and are poorly educated.

    Somehow I think they won’t be able to cope being in Parliament.

  38. As I said earlier, I believe that Labor needs to draw from a wider talent pool than union members & political staffers for future candidates – small business owners, community workers, people with significant profiles in their local areas, tradespeople etc.

  39. fess

    in the last year i have had via my kids close mates
    had to deal with a couple of suicides

    in both cases the dads were low income workers who simply cracked under the pressure

    there is a cohort that never will have the the quals you hope they have

    these peeps are the the ones who are really hurting

    not the middleclaas wankers who seem to be the engine room of labor policy

  40. [Pegasus

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    FC,

    Addressing the issue as always
    ]

    I was called Sir Paste A lot years ago cos I was doing on IRC exactly what you were doing to prove a point.

    It seems that that’s you are capable of doing – rather than discuss the issues.

  42. Sadly most of the new Labor candidates running in the upcoming NSW election are either political staffers, union people or failed Federal candidates from 2010…..not that any of them will win a seat, based on current polling.
    But it’s a sign of what’s wrong with current preselection processes in the ALP ranks.

  44. [evan14

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    As I said earlier, I believe that Labor needs to draw from a wider talent pool than union members & political staffers for future candidates – small business owners, community workers, people with significant profiles in their local areas, tradespeople etc.
    ]

    If you ever bothered to read BB’s posts – those same peopel you desire see themselves as Liberal Voters.

  45. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    A lot of those Aged Care Workers are from Non English Speaking Backgrounds, and are poorly educated

    crass and very poor form
    ]
    gus – It’s True.

    But of course you are living in 1972 world.

  46. I’m not sure that widening eligibility for votes in preselections is a good idea.

    If you really want to split branches, make people feel disenfranchised, cause mass resignations and create a group of people whose one aim in life is to undermine your candidate….go through a nice, open democratic preselection process.

    It’s like the old Hillary/Obama flame wars here. People take sides (and the more candidates there are, the more divisions are thus created). They put a lot of time and energy into supporting their person, and do the usual things people do when they place all their hopes in one basket – find all the possible reasons why all the other contenders are not only certain losers, but also morally repugnant (and probably smell funny).

    So when you finally get a candidate selected, you’ve got groups who supported other candidates who are utterly convinced that the chosen one isn’t up to the job. Confirmation bias gets to work, and the rest of the campaign is carried on with the background murmur of constant criticism, if not outright undermining of the chosen candidate.

    (After one preselection, which I won, a branch member went to every single event I attended, simply so that he could take me aside at some stage and tell me I should resign immediately).

    I’ve never ever seen a preselection battle which has ended with everyone united, smiling and moving forward together. In some cases, the bitterness created has lasted for years.

    I’m not sure you can avoid that – it might be a necessary part of democratic party decison making.

    But to expand the number of voters will surely just expand the problem.

    Instead of just having party members – who, one hopes, will put their party loyalties first when it matters – feeling disappointed that their candidate didn’t get up, there’ll also be a number of people in the community (who, ordinarily, wouldn’t have known anything about the preselection process until a candidate was chosen) who don’t have the same depth of loyalty but feel disenfranchised and disillusioned because their candidate didn’t get up.

    I hate preselections. They’re messy, cause ill feeling, and exhaust energies which would be better spent on the actual campaign.

    I don’t know if there’s a better way of preselecting candidates, which would avoid these problems, but I can’t see that p**ing off more people is a good idea.

  47. [My question still is: how does increasing the proportion of blue collar workers in ALP Caucus lead to more effective govt?]

    maybe a Gvt more in touch with a heel of a lot of peeps who are feeling unrepresented

    (which BTW the fibs are trying to exploiy via the old racism ploy)

    HOWIE ROOTED THE SOCIAL FABRIC

    FULL F@$%^&* STOP

  48. Frank @ 6315
    [And openinig it up to the Great unwashed is going to fix that ??]

    Poor old ‘blue collar’ me, getting a kick from Frank. Not only is my job sh*t, my hygeine is poor. We prefer the term ‘hi-vis clothing’, which, as Pegasus pointed out, is rather ironic.
    I’m shocked Frank, shocked. 😉

  49. Gus:

    Very sad to hear about your kids’ friends.

    I think Howardia has a lot to answer for. I’d argue too that households (incl middle class households) are saddled with debt which makes adjusting to periods of difficulty so much harder to manage.

  50. Frank: not all small business people vote Liberal, the same goes for plumbers, electricians, carpenters, tax agents, conveyancers etc.
    Labor can’t keep just selecting union hacks & political staffers.

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