Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.

UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.

Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.

More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.

UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,529 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. TSOP @ 6422

    [Maybe Civics should be mandatory in high school, like at least a unit of it in year 11 or something. And in this subject, you are exclusively taught how our system works and what not. Not like a legal class which focuses on the legal and judicial aspects of the constitution and legislation but rather one that talks about the actual political system and the realities of it (neither from a cynical, Utopian or partisan point of view)]

    This would be a fine thing, but the idea is always subject to cries of outrage from conservatives and religious crackpots that pinko teachers are ‘indoctrinating our kids’ with trendy, lefty politics.

    It is quite OK with this same whining group to brainwash kids with the poison of religious intolerance and ignorance, but the mere mention of even ‘ethics’ classes as an alternative to subjecting children to the idiocy of religious instruction (and this class, of course, is exclusively of the Christian variety) sends these zealots into towering paroxyms of resentful anger about their kids being fed propaganda.

    There are none so blind as those that will not see …

  2. From Paul Kelly’s article re ALP Membership Numbers.

    [The contrast is fascinating: while the unions are seen as a bedrock strength the ALP branch structure is in disrepair. “Our local branches are closing across the country on a monthly basis,” Faulkner warns. In NSW alone, more than 100 branches closed in the past decade. Labor’s 45,000 members constitute only 0.002 per cent of the population. The review finds this “an alarming and historic low”. By contrast, GetUp! is cited to have 350,000 members. Labor must “reach out to progressive movements” to win fresh ideas and support. A new national director for party organisation should be appointed to increase membership and a portion of national conference delegates should be directly elected via the rank and file.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/reform-plan-poses-risks-for-alp/story-e6frg6zo-1226008384089

  3. Diogenes

    I think Bowen’s multicultural announcement could wrestle back some disillusioned Greens voters

    Frank

    Getup is cited to have 350,000 members … ROTFL

  4. [Maybe Civics should be mandatory in high school, like at least a unit of it in year 11 or something. And in this subject, you are exclusively taught how our system works and what not. Not like a legal class which focuses on the legal and judicial aspects of the constitution and legislation but rather one that talks about the actual political system and the realities of it (neither from a cynical, Utopian or partisan point of view)]

    Civics and Citizenship is a core part of the mandatory history curriculum in NSW. All students in NSW should have covered the basics of our parliamentary system by the end of Year 10 – most schools cover it in Year 9. The quality of the course is dependent on the teacher however. These are the specific topics that are expected to be taught:

    • Federation
    • key features of the Constitution
    • examples of constitutional change since Federation
    • how the Australian political system works in practice
    • the changing rights and freedoms of various groups
    • events and issues of political significance and their impact on the changing nature of civic institutions and civil society
    • what it means to be an active and informed citizen.

    Unfortunately, as with most things, kids retain what they feel they need to know. A 14 year old has a lot more on their minds than the ins and outs of our parliamentary democracy. Even students who covered those topics in reasonable depth in Year 9 will probably struggle to recall much of it by the end of Year 12.

  5. [This would be a fine thing, but the idea is always subject to cries of outrage from conservatives and religious crackpots that pinko teachers are ‘indoctrinating our kids’ with trendy, lefty politics.]

    That thought immediately crossed my mind. The syllabus would need to be administered by an apolitical authority with bipartisan review.

  6. [6508

    spur212

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    Diogenes

    I think Bowen’s multicultural announcement could wrestle back some disillusioned Greens voters

    Frank

    Getup is cited to have 350,000 members … ROTFL
    ]

    Probably based on the mailing list.

  7. [To Speak of Pebbles

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    This would be a fine thing, but the idea is always subject to cries of outrage from conservatives and religious crackpots that pinko teachers are ‘indoctrinating our kids’ with trendy, lefty politics.

    That thought immediately crossed my mind. The syllabus would need to be administered by an apolitical authority with bipartisan review.
    ]

    as opposed to this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y9-_9amHPc

  8. [In NSW alone, more than 100 branches closed in the past decade. Labor’s 45,000 members constitute only 0.002 per cent of the population. The review finds this “an alarming and historic low”. By contrast, GetUp! is cited to have 350,000 members. Labor must “reach out to progressive movements” to win fresh ideas and support.]

    Kind of explains why we have a record high Greens vote and the ALP is a sinking ship.

  9. The Australian Curriculum (National Curriculum) has a less prescribed approach, but in the mandatory History domain the civics/citizenship aspects that relate directly to Australia include:
    • social, economic, political and cultural development
    • nationalism and federation.

    As you can see these topics are less direct and allow for more teacher discretion. That may not be a great thing.

  10. [Adam

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 1:09 am | Permalink

    In NSW alone, more than 100 branches closed in the past decade. Labor’s 45,000 members constitute only 0.002 per cent of the population. The review finds this “an alarming and historic low”. By contrast, GetUp! is cited to have 350,000 members. Labor must “reach out to progressive movements” to win fresh ideas and support.

    Kind of explains why we have a record high Greens vote and the ALP is a sinking ship.
    ]

    I wouldn’t be crowing too much…

  11. TSoP @6513:
    My understanding of Australian Curriculum is that there will be some kind of mandatory civics and citizenship component that is required across all year levels, including into Year 12. It is not clear yet how that will actually be implemented.

  12. [echoes of llloyd george and the debate on the empire]
    I would be excited if there were teachers wanting to debate empire Gusface! Unfortunately there is a distinct lack of historical knowledge and understanding (most keenly felt in the junior years) amongst teaching staff in most states in Australia. Those of us who devoted ourselves to history degrees are getting thinner on the ground – although NSW mounted a fine rearguard thanks to the passion of Bob Carr.

  13. Well maybe the kids can study Morals as she is taught by the AFL clubs and Ricky Nixon,how interesting,wonder if it will get a run on Offsiders with the ABCs AFL bias.
    Thought I think Cassidy and Co with cover up it like they normally do,what did Costello say about AFL players and school kids,something like keep them away LMAO

  14. [LABOR is a party in crisis, gripped by factions and dominated by unions, an internal review has found.

    A warts-and-all review of the party’s near-death experience at the 2010 federal election has laid bare the problems at the heart of Labor and dwindling morale within the ranks.

    This may end up being the good news for its rapidly dwindling membership.

    Key parts of the long-awaited review by Labor eminent persons, Bob Carr, Steve Bracks, and John Faulkner, have been withheld, deemed too embarrassing for public release.

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard was handed the full report yesterday at a meeting of the Labor Party’s national executive.

    It is understood her version contains what has been dubbed “a sealed section” and marked for her eyes only because it examines what went wrong in the near disastrous 2010 election race just weeks after she replaced Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/ipad/a-party-where-no-one-is-having-fun/story-fn6bqvxz-1226008415929

  15. I think Corey Bernardi would do well to acquaint himself with Islam before making idiotic statements. He might also familiarize himself with Christian fundamentalists.

  16. [I think Corey Bernardi would do well to acquaint himself with Islam before making idiotic statements.]

    I think many people should actually. After reading about it in the last couple of months, I am surprised how many things I (a guy who is very socially liberal) believed about it were myth too.

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