Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.

UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.

Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.

More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.

UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,529 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  4. [I expect the ALP will continue to hammer Morrison on this, and any time Morrison or Abbott try and bring up the issue of asylum seekers in Parliament expect this story to be shoved back down their throat. The ALP may finally be moving back to a party of true compassion on this issue, and for that we may thank one 9 year old boy…”
    ]

    The alp was always the party of true compassion – and we can thank the nine year old for illustrating it – but you have no case to show we changed – just sometimes we didn’t fight like you wanted – we fought smarter.

  5. So Frank you consider a person giving you a curry over Labor’s poor treatment of asylum seekers a Liberal hack. Six months ago you called me a green hack and out of touch with the masses.

    The drought has broken and now this, what a wonderful year.

  7. How about Labor launches a censure motion against Abbott & Morrison next Monday or Tuesday?
    Or at least a few Dorothy Dixers to Gillard/Bowen/Rudd on the benefits of multiculturalism.;)

  9. “WeWantPaul
    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 12:00 am | Permalink
    …..

    The alp was always the party of true compassion – and we can thank the nine year old for illustrating it – but you have no case to show we changed – just sometimes we didn’t fight like you wanted – we fought smarter.”

    I’m glad to see you showed up for your retraining, better have a word with Frank.

    I would have been a lot more impressed if there had been a few to stand up to the right wing shock jocks a little earlier. Better late than never I suppose.

    Hopefully this is the start of the moderates taking back the Liberal Party. If that happens I would be more than happy to be labelled a Liberal party hack.

  10. [fredn

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    So Frank you consider a person giving you a curry over Labor’s poor treatment of asylum seekers a Liberal hack. Six months ago you called me a green hack and out of touch with the masses.

    The drought has broken and now this, what a wonderful year.
    ]

    well you are certianly no ALP supporter.

  11. evan

    i spoke to chris b this arvo on ben fordham program

    gave him a great dixer

    ‘what is the benefit of multiculturalism”

    also slipped in we have been a multicultural socity since WW2

    its on the 2ue site

    GUSFACE STRIKES AGAIN

  12. Gus

    Are you feeling a bit faint from all the furious turd-polishing you are doing in preparation for the triumphant 2011 “NSW Labor minority Government” ?

    Are the fumes getting to you?

  15. [Gusface

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    evan

    i spoke to chris b this arvo on ben fordham program

    gave him a great dixer

    ‘what is the benefit of multiculturalism”

    also slipped in we have been a multicultural socity since WW2

    its on the 2ue site

    GUSFACE STRIKES AGAIN
    ]

    Don’t you mean 2GB ??

  18. [Are you feeling a bit faint from all the furious turd-polishing you are doing in preparation for the triumphant 2011 “NSW Labor minority Government” ?]

    Diog, the pumpkin awaits you. 😛

  21. [rank Calabrese
    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    ….

    well you are certianly no ALP supporter.]

    No I am not. I’m disappointed Labor aren’t thrashing Abbott in the poles, but when the policy has been to follow the bastards into the Gutter what do you expect.

    Hopefully this is that start of something, I really don’t care who gets to the circle marked decency first.

  22. Yes Gusface but you can’t win the war.
    I was listening to one of the shock-jocks once when he was dog-whistling about Burkas.
    I got on by saying that not only Burkas but Najibs and scarves should all be banned. He saw some merit in this. My next sentence was that, of course, we would have to stop the Queen wearing scarves when she was shooting small cute animals in Scotland. The phone then went dead – and I turned on the radio to hear him say that x from y “had some interesting points but unfortunately the line had broken up”. While ever they have the delay button they have the power!

  24. Finns

    puffy is a 6.5 stars generals

    pls address her serene highness as such

    eg

    [ your 6.5 stars generals high sereness may desire some down time, pretty pls]

    a smiley helps too

    🙂

  27. [Yes Gusface but you can’t win the war.]

    better to die on your feet than live on your knees

    🙁

    ps i have forgone much lucre to fight the good fight

    To me it aint about what we have, but more what we can become

    😉

  30. [Oakeshott Country

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    Yes Gusface but you can’t win the war.
    I was listening to one of the shock-jocks once when he was dog-whistling about Burkas.
    I got on by saying that not only Burkas but Najibs and scarves should all be banned. He saw some merit in this. My next sentence was that, of course, we would have to stop the Queen wearing scarves when she was shooting small cute animals in Scotland. The phone then went dead – and I turned on the radio to hear him say that x from y “had some interesting points but unfortunately the line had broken up”. While ever they have the delay button they have the power!
    ]

    And a lot of these Jocks have panel operators who run the dump button as well – and they are cued by the producer as well.

  32. Very interesting from Oakes.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/infighting-libs-let-labor-off-the-hook/story-e6frezz0-1226008361532

    He makes the point that the Liberals would normally be having a field day over the Howes/Emerson business but they’ve been too internally divided.

    FYI Since reading Howes’s Campaign Diary last year, I have begun to think less and less of him. He reminds me a lot of a unionized version of Mark Latham.

  33. interestingly when i went on air and switched to natural voice

    i was killed straight after the q’s i asked

    aamoi the back channel showed some V sophisticated CID

    when i ran it thru the ABC channel the same CID software came up

    #justsaying

  37. further

    a mate or two has advised me that beside IP tracking there is also some hevy shit voice recog software

    apparently all the radio mob are signatory’s to it

    will delve further

  40. [Gusface

    Posted Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    further

    a mate or two has advised me that beside IP tracking there is also some hevy shit voice recog software

    apparently all the radio mob are signatory’s to it

    will delve further
    ]
    Probably designed for Digital Rado, as the old PSTN technology wouldn’t cut it quality wise.

  43. frank

    awhile ago i sold some pretty mega software

    logic cubes et al

    the dashboard component could identify any transaction anytine- in real time

    brave new world and 1984 could only dream

    🙁

  46. frank

    to any board i show as a central west (nsw) number

    if needs be can be an 0011 one as well

    gets thru the firwalls

    but voice is still the problem

    vocader’s dont work on radio

    atm

  47. TSOP

    I believe my point was too “nuanced”. A wise man said that both living on your knees and dying on your feet are both bad options.

    A smart person doesn’t get into that situation and lives on their feet, whereas a complete loser manages to die on their knees.

    Hence my rephrasing of the original saying.

  48. And here comes Corey Bernardi to raise the tone.

    Islam’s the problems, not Muslims, says Senator Cory Bernardi

    TONY Abbott’s official frontbench understudy has reignited immigration tensions by denouncing Islam as a “totalitarian, political and religious ideology”.
    Liberal parliamentary secretary Cory Bernardi revealed last night he had received death threats after making the comments.

    While the immigration debate usually differentiates between the religion of Islam and extreme fundamentalist interpretations, Senator Bernardi confronted the issue head-on yesterday.

    “Islam itself is the problem – it’s not Muslims,” he told radio station MTR.

    “Muslims are individuals that practise their faith in their own way, but Islam is a totalitarian, political and religious ideology.

    “It tells people everything about how they need to conduct themselves, who they’re allowed to marry and how they’re allowed to treat other people.”
    …
    Senator Bernardi said Islam had “not moved on” since it was founded and that extremists wanted fundamentalist Islamic rule implemented in Australia.

    The senator also inflamed the row over funeral expenses for asylum-seekers by declaring that it was “wrong” for taxpayers to foot the bill.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/islams-the-problems-not-muslims-says-senator-cory-bernardi/story-e6frf7l6-1226008418768

    Are the Libs on a crash or crash through course again? If they are, the govt will really need to draw a line in the sand because the other major political party of this country is now revelling in open bigotry.

  50. [Probably designed for Digital Rado, as the old PSTN technology wouldn’t cut it quality wise.]

    true

    but some 64 bit encryption shite is involved

    128 bit aint in the public domain

    YET

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