2011: episode one

Happy new year everybody. Limiting our brief to known knowns, we have the following entries in the 2011 electoral calendar.

• The NSW Labor government’s date for the electoral mincer is set for March 26. Mumble man Peter Brent has bravely ventured that Labor “will do better than opinion polls in 2010 said they would, perhaps emerging with around 30 out of 93 seats”. My tip is that this prediction of Brent’s won’t scrub up quite as nicely after the event as those he made in relation to Victoria.

• John Brumby’s exit from politics will result in a by-election in his ultra-safe northern Melbourne seat of Broadmeadows, probably in February or March. According to David Rood of The Age, early contenders for Labor preselection include “former Brumby adviser and Labor state secretary Nick Reece, former adviser to Steve Bracks and lobbyist Danny Pearson, Hume councillor Burhan Yigit, ex-Labor party officer and right-wing figure Mehmet Tillem, recently defeated Labor upper house MP Nathan Murphy and former Hobsons Bay Council mayor Bill Baarini”. One might surmise that other Victorian by-elections will follow before the year is through.

• Four of the 15 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council will become vacant this year, with elections almost certain to be held on May 7. These include two of the three seats held by Labor, with the other two being among the 11 held by independents (Vanessa Goodwin in Pembroke being the sole Liberal). In the normal course of events, two or three seats are on rotation to become vacant each year: this year is the turn of Launceston, Murchison and Rumney. Veteran independent Don Wing is retiring in Launceston, which will be constested for the Liberals by state party president Sam McQuestin. Sitting independent Ruth Forrest will seek another term in Murchison – she will be opposed by a Labor candidate in the person of Waratah-Wynyard mayor Kevin Hyland (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments advises that Hyland is no longer a starter), but not by the Liberals. Labor’s Lin Thorp is up for re-election in Rumney, and I can find no mention of potential challengers (it’s not unknown for Legislative Council members to be returned unopposed, but the Greens at least can be relied upon to take a shot in metropolitan seats). The bonus fourth seat is a by-election caused by the retirement of former Treasurer Michael Aird. Labor’s new nominee is Derwent deputy mayor Craig Farrell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,650 comments on “2011: episode one”

Comments Page 2 of 133
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  1. [You and I will never agree on this issue. Have you read the Piping Strike piece about the Barrie Cassidy book linked in the previous thread?]
    Why should one other person’s opinion have an influence on what I believe to be so?

  3. [Kev’s got the message and knows how to communicate with his audience. He also likes to boogy.]
    Explain the negative polls he was getting eventually.

  4. @ Gary

    Thats right if they have stopped reporting the confrontations the average punter won’t know that the govt rejects the MSM’s assertions.

  5. Gary,

    You think the Government should be beholden to the NSW Right disease of Government by polling. That’s exactly why people think Labor is more spin than substance.

    Rudd’s polling was such that no sitting Government had ever been tossed out from that position.

    As the Shrike notes, the reason Rudd was knifed was because he might win, not that he might lose.

  7. Lizzie

    [Isn’t that Abbott’s main aim? To destroy the credibility of the govt, even if he has no policies for the future. I believe that is the advice from some Libs, and Hunt & Morrison are putting all their energies into helping him.]

    And it is the job of the Government to destroy his argument and argue their case. To bring on a blew mightn’t be a bad idea at least it would show there is still some passion in the Party.

    I agree with Annie above a few more face to face meetings with the public wouldn’t be a bad idea.

    One or two on here may watch press conferences the general population doesn’t. They only see the headlines in the media that everyone whinges about.

    If the ALP had some “old style” members who were prepared to take on the opposition and argue their case to the public instead of listening to self fufilling focus groups arranged by a group of thirty somethings with no life experience outside of organising the numbers internally we may be in a better positon with the general population.

  8. Pedant alert – last night the ABC news said that today was the first day of the new decade. Fine.
    But the world celebrated the first day of the “new millenium” on 1 Jan 2000 (couldn’t wait for 2001).
    So we’ve just had an eleven year decade.
    Brilliant!

    Well, today IS the first day of the new deacde. Many back in 2000 pointed out that decades begin with the “1” year, but I guess the thrill of all four digits changing at midnight on December 31st, 1999 was too much for the slow thinkers.

    But actually, ARE they slow thinkers?

    The confusion us actually, IMHO, the fault of whoever it was that decided the first year of Our Lord was “0001”. It should have been “0000” and then the calendar numbering system would have been in sync with the arithmetic numbering system, where (small “d”) decades begin with 0 as the least significant digit. This year would have been “2010” AND would have been the start of a new decade.

    And if it was 2010, then of course Kevin Rudd would still have been Prime Minister, but would have known in advance what the plotters were up to.

    Bewdafull!

  10. [Rudd was never unpopular with the electorate only with the Party. So, he might be back a bit sooner.]
    Not so. Rewriting history again.

  12. Gary

    [Why should one other person’s opinion have an influence on what I believe to be so?]

    If that is your argument why then do your expend so much time trying to influence everybody else on this blog?

  13. I’d be happy to have Rudd back as PM, a little wiser hopefully, and a little less malleable by the Right.

    I’m not saying Gillard is a bad PM. I thinkl she’s great. But if she fell under a bus, Rudd would be my choice.

    Until then, no more plotting.

  15. [None of this is explained or refuted. It’s just repeated ad infinitum until it sinks in and becomes accepted wisdom. The media rely on the general public’s anti-intellectualism – their reluctance to think – and their proclivity to whine and carp about anything to accomplish their goal of turning every single Labor initiative into a debacle. Labor, rather surprisingly, fails every time to refute any of this, being, it seems more interested in counter focus-grouping the Coalition focus-groups than actually explaining anything, or defending anything. Labor’s aim is to match one piece of bullshit with another piece of bullshit. No wonder the public is cynical.]
    This is the major problem which Rudd failed at and which Gillard must solve. Rudd’s apology for roof insulation was one of the first causes of his demise. Now the common phrase is “government’s roof insulation disaster”. Not the killing off of the issue which the Rudd boosters at the time were predicting.

    Gillard and all of her spokespeople must attack every slanted media preamble to interviews.

    “Firstly, let me correct that misinformation contained in your question. … Now, to the specifics of your question …”
    The media won’t be able to take out convenient soundbites without getting a contexted government answer.

  18. Bushfire Bill
    After I wrote my comment at No 1 the crought crossed my mind that it might evoke a response from you. I certainly wasn’t disappointed.
    Your piece was right on the money and much appreciated.

  22. [You’re the one who keeps changing their story. So it’s you that’s doing the rewriting.]
    If that’s the best you’ve got then I think we’re done.

  23. Fraser livid at inaction on oilrigs
    [Former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser believed Australia’s offshore oil platforms were prime terrorist targets, but sceptical officials were maddeningly slow to act on his concern, 1980 cabinet papers reveal.]
    [The potential for catastrophe feared by Fraser was realised in 1998 with the accidental explosion at the Longford gas plant, the onshore receiving point for oil and gas from Bass Strait facilities.

    The blast killed two workers and cut all gas supplies to Victoria for a fortnight.

    An assessment of the terror risk to Australian offshore facilities, released in 2005 by the federal Office of Transport Security, noted that many of the potential risks identified by Fraser remain.
    However, Australia does now have far more robust counter-terror response arrangements than existed three decades ago.]

    http://bigpondnews.com/articles/TopStories/2011/01/01/Fraser_livid_at_inaction_on_oilrigs_558676.html

  24. [ Former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser believed Australia’s offshore oil platforms were prime terrorist targets, but sceptical officials were maddeningly slow to act on his concern, 1980 cabinet papers reveal.

    The potential for catastrophe feared by Fraser was realised in 1998 with the accidental explosion at the Longford gas plant, the onshore receiving point for oil and gas from Bass Strait facilities.]
    What a very long bow to draw to connect these two ideas. offshore oil platform = onshore receiving point terrorist targets = accidental explosion.

    Pathetic journalism.

  25. [Well, today IS the first day of the new deacde.]
    The first decade of the new millennium, whatever the relevant dates, is the one the neo-conservatives stole from us, the miserable, greedy, evil douchebags who I hope burn in every Hell imagined in every faith on this poor ratfecked planet whose precious resources they use to prop up their over inflated egos and tiny brains, and pathetic reproductive bits.

    In fact one good possibility of religion is the possible existence of an eternity of suffering for those half-human-half-reptiles that inflict misery and suffering on billions so they can have their arskes powdered with gold flakes and rhino-horn talc. And if I too go down into the seven rings of hell, the one consolation I will have is seeing those maggots down there with me.

    And if that doesn’t happen and all we end up as is some elements in another living thing, I hope they come back as ‘weed’ plants. Then at least those parasites can have one lifetime of being some use, making some sick, sad or lazy blighter (or just some care-free tofu eaters) happy for a while.

    Happy New Year.

  27. [@GrogsGamut “The parallels between 1980 & now are stark & the docs threaten to renew demands for the gov to curb spending” is lol of the day
    about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck in reply to GrogsGamut ]

    Someone asked about this earlier. I suspected Poss would be onto it. 😆

  28. Puff,

    Ah, how I have missed your incisive commentary! I hope that your new year is much better than it appears to have started 😉

  29. confessions

    “lol of the day” – yes that was my post.

    It’s Time

    It wasn’t quite such a long bow if you take in all the article.
    [At that time Australia was around 80 per cent self-sufficient for fuel, produced mostly from Bass Strait oil.
    But terrorists overseas had demonstrated an interest in hitting oil infrastructure, and Fraser believed the Australian facilities were especially vulnerable.]

  32. lizzie

    The Longford gas plant explosion happened without the aid or assistance of terrorists. To say that this event justifies a prior fear of terrorism on other infrastructure has no basis in jogic.

  35. Gary

    [Please explain.]

    With the exception of my spelling error of “your” for “you” I think you get my drift. Try harder!

  36. [Come back when you’ve got some verifiable links to match your assertions. You might be able to play then.]
    So you want to be hand fed? Thought so.

  38. [With the exception of my spelling error of “your” for “you” I think you get my drift. Try harder!]
    No idea what you are getting at.

  39. Its Time

    Not defending whoever wrote it. I think the severe effects of the Longford gas explosion was simply given as an example of the effects such an attack might have.

    Frankly, I think the Fraser govt over-reacted, but that’s easy to see in hindsight.

  42. Gary,

    Why don’t you just admit you don’t know how to mount a proper argument? You know, one that involves, facts, evidence and some links.

  43. lizzie

    In the “have your say” part of the paper, someone condemned Julia for not acting quickly on the Queensland floods. Said wtte that she was too busy being on holidays!

  45. victoria

    The necessity for Labor to retain the prefs of Greens to keep up their 2pp vote makes me worry about the “I hate Greens” theme sometimes on this blog. The two parties, IMHO, are natural allies of the left.

  47. lizzie

    It seems that Labor cannot garner enough of the primary vote in its own right anymore. Just like the Libs/Nats need to be in a coalition to boost their primary vote, Labor needs the Greens, whether some on this blog accept it or not.

  49. lizzie

    I suppose these people would not be satisfied until Julia actually flies a helicopter into the flood affected zone and evacuates people single handedly 😉

  50. [Just to stir the pot as I’m having a norty start to the new year ]

    Hi Amigo Vera, not as norty as i have been here in Harry’s Island. Happy New Year.

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