Newspoll: 58-42 to Liberal-National in WA

GhostWhoVotes brings results of the latest quarterly Newspoll of state voting intention in Western Australia, and it finds the state Labor Party joining its New South Wales and Queensland counterparts in the sub-30 primary vote club. From an already parlous position in July-September, Labor is down a point on both the primary vote, now at 29 per cent, and two-party preferred, with the Coalition now leading 58-42. Both leaders’ personal ratings are much as they’ve been all year: Colin Barnett is down a point on approval to 55 per cent and up three on disapproval to 35 per cent, Eric Ripper is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up one on disapproval to 43 per cent, and Barnett’s two-party lead has gone from 61-17 to 60-16. The sample for the poll was 839, for a margin of error of about 3.4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

233 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Liberal-National in WA”

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  1. [William BowePosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 3:12 pm | PermalinkVexNews says “Wyatt’s backers are quietly confident that he will emerge the winner with as many as 20 to 21 votes” – which sounds bit uncomfortable, seeing he needs 19.
    ]

    Was this written before, or after the ABC items on the Left Bloc ?

  5. Gareth Parker:

    [G_Parker Gareth Parker
    Unless something changes between now and Tuesday, Ben Wyatt is well short of the numbers required to topple Eric Ripper. Story up soon.
    10 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  6. [William BowePosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 4:30 pm | PermalinkGareth Parker: “Unless something changes between now and Tuesday, Ben Wyatt is well short of the numbers required to topple Eric Ripper. Story up soon.”
    ]

    Snap 🙂 btw, posted tyhe Dowding Column on the other thread to enlighten our fellow bludgers on the other side of the Nullabor 🙂

  9. [GusfacePosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 2:02 am | Permalinkfrank
    just remember ben is your new leader come 2pm wst 06/01/2010
    ]

    As well as getting the date wrong, it looks like your prediction, like that of the Federal Election is wRONG 🙂

  10. Josh Jerga from The Australian News Wire on the numbers:

    [ josh_jerga Josh Jerga @
    @benallenwa it would be in McGowan’s interest to keep Ripper in & roll him closer to the election. Thats always been his intention
    12 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
    josh_jerga Josh Jerga @
    @benallenwa they’ve definitely got at least 11 plus Lisa Baker & Linda Savage. Chris Tallentire is also either Left or unalligned
    30 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
    josh_jerga Josh Jerga
    Right leaders Kate Doust & Bill Johnston + Dermer from Bullock’s SDA. Could follow him despite bad blood – & there’s Rippers’ 17 #spill
    1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
    josh_jerga Josh Jerga
    Travers likely to back Ripper and Helen Bullock from the right has said she would. SDA boss Joe Bullock has also backed Ripper #spill
    1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
    josh_jerga Josh Jerga
    Ripper backed by 11 MPs: (AMWU) Logan, Talbot, O’Gorman, Templeton, Martin, Murray & Ford (LHMU) Cook, Ellery & Freeman + Ravlich #spill
    1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

    http://twitter.com/#!/josh_jerga

  15. Maybe my WA colleagues can enlighten me on what is the point of retaining Eric Ripper as leader, when his poll ratings are so dismal?
    WA Labor are their own worst enemies if they retain this turkey in the top job.

  16. [
    G_Parker Gareth Parker
    Just returned from @EricRipperMLA press conference. He remains supremely confident he retains the support of caucus to continue as leader.
    1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

    [115 evan14Posted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 5:39 pm | PermalinkMaybe my WA colleagues can enlighten me on what is the point of retaining Eric Ripper as leader, when his poll ratings are so dismal?
    WA Labor are their own worst enemies if they retain this turkey in the top job.
    ]

    This tweet from Gareth Parker may be of interest:

    [@G_Parker
    Gareth Parker

    @Markedw And Colin was never going to beat Carpenter. Things can change.
    1 hour ago via TweetDeck Favorite Retweet Reply
    ]

  17. [ josh_jerga Josh Jerga
    If Ripper wins challenge & Wyatt steps down as Opp’n treasurer, who is likely to take over? My tip: McGowan. Roughie: Rita Saffioti #spillwa
    1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  19. Ex Ch 10 News – News from the Wyatt Camp that they are so dispirited that Wyatt my withdraw his challenge as early as Tomorrow Morning. Also 5 of his previous “Suporters” have since changed camps to Ripper.

  20. Sounds like Ripper got in his thugs and heavy hitters to threaten the preselections of a few MPs.
    Wyatt ought to go to the backbench, as his talents obviously aren’t appreciated by the union hacks who pull Ripper’s strings.

  21. [evan14Posted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 9:15 pm | PermalinkSounds like Ripper got in his thugs and heavy hitters to threaten the preselections of a few MPs.
    Wyatt ought to go to the backbench, as his talents obviously aren’t appreciated by the union hacks who pull Ripper’s strings.
    ]

    Wyatt was sold a pup by the bitter Tom Stephens.

  22. Frank 109

    The Class Clown also predicted the NSW ALPto win too, maybe we could make money out of this

    Gusface: can you pick 38 numbers between 1 and 44 for me?

  24. evan

    [Maybe my WA colleagues can enlighten me on what is the point of retaining Eric Ripper as leader, when his poll ratings are so dismal?
    WA Labor are their own worst enemies if they retain this turkey in the top job.]

    Same thing I thought. How bad do Ripper’s numbers need to be to get dumped? He would kill for Rudd’s numbers. Seriously, when only 16% of voters prefer you as Premier to someone like Barnett, it’s time to read the writing on the wall and do the right thing.

  27. [DiogenesPosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 9:31 pm | Permalinkevan
    Maybe my WA colleagues can enlighten me on what is the point of retaining Eric Ripper as leader, when his poll ratings are so dismal?
    WA Labor are their own worst enemies if they retain this turkey in the top job.
    Same thing I thought. How bad do Ripper’s numbers need to be to get dumped? He would kill for Rudd’s numbers. Seriously, when only 16% of voters prefer you as Premier to someone like Barnett, it’s time to read the writing on the wall and do the right thing.
    ]

    And remember Rudd’s high numbersv for the first 18 months ??

    Same as Barnett’s now.

    And we all know what happened to Rudd- didn’t we.

  29. But I do not really understand this

    The election is a long way away, it looks like they are going to burn through Wyatt. He does not even have the numbers … why is he even thinking of challenging

    The way the WA Lib are going they are going to romp in anyway. why not wait until the 2nd term to use your young gun

    Unless they think there might be a re-election coming

  30. [evan14Posted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 9:40 pm | PermalinkFrank obviously loves being in opposition, he and his fellow Ripper supporters better get used to it for the next 8 years.
    ]

    Heard of the term don’t count your chickens ??

    Two years is a LONG time in politics.

  31. It is a minority government, history shows newly elected minority government can kill babies and still get a second term, because they seem to get the benefit of the doubt

    With the Sophomore jump, as explained by William, It is hard to see the Liberals losing

  32. [dovifPosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 9:41 pm | PermalinkBut I do not really understand this
    The election is a long way away, it looks like they are going to burn through Wyatt. He does not even have the numbers … why is he even thinking of challenging
    The way the WA Lib are going they are going to romp in anyway. why not wait until the 2nd term to use your young gun
    Unless they think there might be a re-election coming
    ]

    Two Words:

    Tom Stephens. 🙂

    Eric’s assessment of him has been proven correct.

  33. [It is a minority government …]

    A hair I enjoy splitting: it ceased to be a minority government when Vince Catania defected from Labor to the Nationals. Since independent Liz Constable is part of the government as well, the government has 30 seats out of 59. Other than that, point taken.

  34. William

    [On voting intention perhaps, but Rudd’s last four personal ratings from Newspoll were all worse than Ripper’s have ever been.]

    Is it Labor more than Ripper who is on the nose then?

  35. [William BowePosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 9:50 pm | PermalinkIt is a minority government …
    A hair I enjoy splitting: it ceased to be a minority government when Vince Catania defected from Labor to the Nationals. Since independent Liz Constable is part of the government as well, the government has 30 seats out of 59. Other than that, point taken.
    ]

    If it isn’t a Minoritgy Govt, then why did Adele ask for more staff in exchange for her vote on confidence and supply ? 🙂

  36. [DiogenesPosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 9:56 pm | PermalinkWilliam
    On voting intention perhaps, but Rudd’s last four personal ratings from Newspoll were all worse than Ripper’s have ever been.
    Is it Labor more than Ripper who is on the nose then?
    ]

    If you bothered to read my posts on the other thread you would have heard the answer why.

  37. Look Ripper would not go to the toilet with out consulting the Shoppies,the mans a useless waste of space along with quite a few of his team, untill Labour get real and dump a lot of the old frontbench that lost the unloseable election,it will be dragged down by the time servers, Bullock, and the other factional bosses.
    For gods sack put some one in with the guts to tell these prats to bugger off and worry about their declining union bases

  38. [John RyanPosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 9:59 pm | PermalinkLook Ripper would not go to the toilet with out consulting the Shoppies,the mans a useless waste of space along with quite a few of his team, untill Labour get real and dump a lot of the old frontbench that lost the unloseable election,it will be dragged down by the time servers, Bullock, and the other factional bosses.
    For gods sack put some one in with the guts to tell these prats to bugger off and worry about their declining union bases
    ]

    John,

    The Revolution finisghed over 30 years ago – time to move on.

  39. Diogene

    I think William had the explaination

    Rudd and Swann’s big stuff up …. which has also become Gillard’s stuff up re royalties

  43. WB

    [ Is it Labor more than Ripper who is on the nose then?

    Essentially – although it doesn’t follow that Ripper is their best electoral option.]

    I’m assuming it’s not the other option, which is that Barnett and Libs are so bloody wonderful.

  44. [DiogenesPosted Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 10:12 pm | Permalinkdovif
    Is is Gillard’s mining tax?
    ]

    You said it – When Colin and Twiggy speak, bogans working on the mines in WA listen, and react accordingly.

  46. [You said it – When Colin and Twiggy speak, bogans working on the mines in WA listen, and react accordingly.]

    I thought only about 2% work directly in mining and at most 5% in related industries. It must be a wider problem than people employed in mining, who probably mainly vote Lib anyway.

  47. [I’m assuming it’s not the other option, which is that Barnett and Libs are so bloody wonderful.]

    They’re a stable first-term government enjoying a strong economy. “Wonderful” doesn’t come into it in Australian politics, God bless us.

  48. It seemed to me that it was all down to BHP in South Australia – if the Olympic Dam expansion wasn’t seen to be threatened, there wasn’t much of an issue. Whereas Andrew Forrest was foremost among those who were not appeased by the switch from RSPT to MRRT.

  49. WB

    [It seemed to me that it was all down to BHP in South Australia – if the Olympic Dam expansion wasn’t seen to be threatened, there wasn’t much of an issue.]

    I think you are, as usual, completely correct. 😀

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