Newspoll: 58-42 to Liberal-National in WA

GhostWhoVotes brings results of the latest quarterly Newspoll of state voting intention in Western Australia, and it finds the state Labor Party joining its New South Wales and Queensland counterparts in the sub-30 primary vote club. From an already parlous position in July-September, Labor is down a point on both the primary vote, now at 29 per cent, and two-party preferred, with the Coalition now leading 58-42. Both leaders’ personal ratings are much as they’ve been all year: Colin Barnett is down a point on approval to 55 per cent and up three on disapproval to 35 per cent, Eric Ripper is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up one on disapproval to 43 per cent, and Barnett’s two-party lead has gone from 61-17 to 60-16. The sample for the poll was 839, for a margin of error of about 3.4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

233 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Liberal-National in WA”

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  1. From the Oz Article:

    [In a humiliating defeat last month, Mr Barnett was forced to dump a key part of his law-and-order agenda when his Nationals partners refused to back his plan to let police stop and search anyone without needing a reason.
    He also weathered claims he had improperly asked an independent MP to support the government in return for extra staff, presided over record power price hikes, caused a furore by suggesting airconditioning was unnecessary for the poor, and faced a scandal over an Aboriginal man being tasered 41 times at a police lock-up.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/barnett-tightens-his-grip-as-labor-slides-further-in-polls/story-e6frg6nf-1225979008940?from=public_rss

    With the exception of the Taser incident – the rest of those Scandals were given at best lukewarm coverage, and were as sathing as a mum telling a kid off for not washing his hands.

    There were no calls by our media for heads to roll.

    Whereas when Labor was in power the media were totally feral.

  3. [2 Gusface
    Posted Friday, December 31, 2010 at 12:46 am | Permalink
    William

    when you are ready, perhaps you may throw some irons into the fire as to why WA alp seems to be ahem treading water at best, sinking at worst
    ]

    Ripper’s problem was he was a former Treasurer and had to make some unpopular decisions to raise taxes and charges during the Gallop/Carpenter Govt.

    The Public haven’t forgiven him.

  5. [ Gusface
    Posted Friday, December 31, 2010 at 12:53 am | Permalink
    frank

    less gnaw gnaw, more jaw jaw

    ]

    The last 18 months of the Gallop/Carpenter Govt – the media pounced on every little shadow and beat it to make it non-recognisable – where as now they pay lip service to any of Barnett’s stuff ups and quickly move to the next topic.

    Example – Barnett is offering free entry to under 12’s the Royal Show to compensate moving the Quen’s Birthday Holiday to accomodate CHOGM.

    Gallop to mark the 175th Anniversary of WA Gave Free Entry to the show by redeeming coupons published in the sunday times – The West got it’s nose so out of joint it published complete bulldust about waste of taxcpayers dollars which could be spent on Hospital waiting lists etc..

    Note the difference ?

  6. Frank

    While the media might be able to move the votes of some of its readers, having 29% primary vote is NSW ALP and QLD ALP abysmal (Ok not NSW ALP abysmal)

    There has to be more than just “the media” being at work…. the fact the ALP “brand” are under 30% in primary vote in states containing more than 1/2 the population of Australia, and lost the Victorian election and should have lost the SA election, shows that Australians are not happy with the direction of the ALP.

    And unless the ALP fix this problem, they are going to have massive problems going forward

  7. Some very uninformed opinions:

    First Geoff Gallop and then Alan Carpenter, strongly influenced by Jim McGinty, decided to go to war with The West Australian over its biased coverage under Paul Armstrong and got smashed. The use of the Sunday Times on the Royal Show issue was a calculated decision and it backfired very badly.

    That said, the absymal timing of the last election, along with Carpenter’s efforts to parachute in favored candidates was what lost Labor the election. The theme was Carpenter was arrogant and it stuck. Remember, even with The West going feral it was a hung parliament.

    Colin Barnett might have become Premier by accident, but he now strongly opposes the mining tax and the West is owned by Kerry Stokes who makes millions from mining. Oh yes, and he also owns Channel 7, which has the highest rating TV news in WA. Eric Ripper is reduced to playing follow the leader and criticising Federal Labor. The mining tax may be necessary, but Labor is sacrificing WA for the forseeable future to bring it in.

    Finally, Barnett is a one man band – but unfortunately Labor has no players at all. Oh Alannah, why did you forsake us?

  8. That is a seriously crap result.
    Surely Ripper has to go. Too bland and has no cut through whatsoever.
    I’m not that close to wa politics these days but what about the shadow attorney general? The bald bloke, Quigley i think. He any good?
    Maybe they could parachute Alannah back into a seat somewhere and then make her leader.
    Regardless, federal ALP needs to get this damn mining tax in and working asap and then make a big noise about some WA infrastructure projects it will fund. Once joe average over there realises the sky wont fall on their head when the tax is in place then things might start looking up for the ALP in the west.
    WA I hardly know ye!

  9. Its not only Ripper who has to go,to regain credibility WA Labour must clean out over half the remaining sitting party members they are duds.
    Ripper wont say anything that has not been cleared by the Shoppies union boss hence the shopping hours mess,Fran Logan the threesome man,meanwhile while these faction controlled fools remain mute we have Gas prices going up electricity, water.
    We have Western Power firing people and bringing in Leightons to do their work,we have Homes West handing Maintenance to Transfield,the next thing will be to sell the power companys so Barnett so wash his hands of the coming rises.
    Sorry Frank I have voted Labour all my life but the large number of incompetents in the Opposition And Ripper,and to let Alannah walk like the factional hacks wanted was a disgrace,they should be begging her to come back,at least she has some get up and go all you get from Ripper and 80% is ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

  10. Mining Tax,
    PM. “This mining tax, (ie the $40b) IS $2,000 less tax for every man women and child in Australia, thats a tax break, don’t listen to the fat cats form the mining industry listen to your tax bill.
    Tresurer,. “When the Libs oppose the mining tax they are ripping $8,000 out of the pockets of every family with two kids. And what for, So they can get peanuts form the mining industry to fund their next dodgy election campaign,
    Local Members ” Lets hear form the local Libs why they want to steal $2,000 from every working man and woman, take $2,000 out of every kids school. What a con they are trying to run, its a disgrace and I’m going to stand up and support the battlers, not the obscenely rich, multi milionaire miners, most of whom take thier money outside the country anyway.
    Anyone else that the ALP can dredge up. “I haven’t been conned, this is simple, we either have $2,000 more for everyone or we have $200 million for about 30 big stakeholders.” Do they think we are stupid”
    Etc etc.
    That the mining companies got away with this is either complete stupidity on the behalf of the ALP and the Greens and anyone else who supported it or worse.

  12. [Gos
    Posted Friday, December 31, 2010 at 12:51 pm | Permalink
    Some very uninformed opinions:

    First Geoff Gallop and then Alan Carpenter, strongly influenced by Jim McGinty, decided to go to war with The West Australian over its biased coverage under Paul Armstrong and got smashed. The use of the Sunday Times on the Royal Show issue was a calculated decision and it backfired very badly.

    ]

    Yet on the other threads, you and others want Labor to go hard against media bias by takingthem on – yet here youy criticise WA Labor for doing EXACTLY what you want Federal Labor to do.

    Make up your mind.

  14. [William

    when you are ready, perhaps you may throw some irons into the fire as to why WA alp seems to be ahem treading water at best, sinking at worst]

    If we look at the four Newspolls of this year, we see Labor starting the year trailing 53-47 – not bad for a first-term opposition – before some calamity befell them round about May or so. Whatever this calamity was had no bearing on Barnett or Ripper’s personal ratings, which suggests a factor external to state politics. Now I guess you could argue that it might have been this or it might have been that, but it seems intuitively to me that this event from around May or so might just have been the announcement of the mining tax. Add to that opposition demoralisation, robust economy, government dominant enough to paper over internal fissures (for now), an Opposition Leader lacking in star quality (and quite possibly as Frank says suffering from former Treasurer syndrome) and the usual stuff about the broader Labor malaise, and I’d say that’s your lot.

  15. Barking

    Simple stupid way to look at it, that was why Swann got it so wrong in the first place,

    Following your logic, why not increase company tax to 100% and the mining tax to 100%, as Ken Henry was asked

    Quite simply there is an inverse relationship between tax and investment, that is why every country in the western world including Australia had dropped corporate tax to attract investment, this seem to be lost on Swann and Henry … I guess it has to do with the Blackhole in the budget, and has nothing to do with tax cuts

  16. I agree with Frank re the treatment of the WA labor by the West and media in general. Barnett has had a dream run and is barely scrutinised the way Labor was.

    I think the reality re the current Opposition Leader is that he consistently polls low in support and regardless of mining tax or external issues, I cant see this changing. I think there is the need for a new start with a new leader. There is strong labor team in parliament with many new faces who have scored some blows Wyatt, Cook, Saffioti, Papalia, Tinley, Buti, Tallantire and McGowan in my opinion have all done well but are lacking a leader who can cut through.

    Wyatt seems the obvious choice and the sooner the better which is sad for Ripper but a political reality.

  17. Dovif,
    Ha ha ha, What a joke, Your point is right in dealing with manufacturing investment to a point. I would argue that the ‘free worlds’ lowering of corporate taxes has more to do with corporates than tax, however. The Super Tax was on investment where they can dig stuff out of the ground in one place only, where the resources are located. Now we are a bit lucky in that in the short term we have mountains, literally, of Iron etc. Now they dig this up and make Super profits, huge profits, that can only be made once. You seem to have fallen for the very line that the Mining industry were running in that they would go somehwere else. Fine, let them go and see how long it takes for a new startup to get going. There is a point here that links to Franks point about the media.
    The ALP and to a certain extent the Greens and totally the Fibs have given up any idea of doing whats right, They are all so paranoid about bad media, they have plenty of reason, that they are stuck in a policy vice. The mining tax was a good example. Unfortunately the company who ran the Governments adds were weak, off target and piss anted around while the mining companies invested a small 100m or so to push for a 20b return,.
    Frank is right, apeasement only leads to greater tyrany, they must be confronted but the effort of Conroy going sking with skase just emphasises that most still think they are smarter than the corporates.
    Well they may be smarter, I doubt it, but they are nowhere near as ruthless and cunning, also the corporates don’t have to somehow appease the masses. Who gives out the licences, who runs the show, .If the roles were reversed, I doubt any of the progressive pollies would ever get a sniff at anything, infact the would be smashed to oblivion. Its not an even playing field here and it needs reversing. Who is running the show and for who’s benefit.?

  19. The WA ALP`s problem is that Alannah MacTiernan resigned from the WA Parliament to run for Canning, lost and retired from politics.

  20. Barking

    You have no understanding of Economics or real world business

    A Company invest in Australia, because we have a stable economic/political situation, that is why a lot of Foreign companies have bases in Australia, they employs Australian, and keep people in Sydney and Melbourne employed…. this is also why BHP and Rio Tinto called Australian home.

    When you hear large multinationals and large investment bankers saying the mining tax is bad policy. You should at least find out what they are talking about.

    People including a lot of Australians has invested in mining company and mining projects… some of the investment decision was made prior to the mining tax, but the mining tax made those project non profitable

    Additionally it sends a message to the rest of the multinationals, that if you make a profit, the government will confiscate it …. this type of government intervention happens in places like Russia, Cuba, Africa …. but no longer happen to first world nations. In one stroke, this government because of its economics incompetancy, had harmed our International reputation …. apart from the multinationals, the US government also spoke with the government on this.

    You might not understand, or have the knowledge to figure out why the rest of the world thinks the mining tax was such a bad tax…. but the facts that the ALP and Martin Fergusson acknowledge how badly the tax was framed and change it said a lot

  21. Barnet will not act on this:

    [As revealed in The Sunday Times and PerthNow, the Office of the Environmental Protection Authority was told a fortnight ago that lead had leaked into several carriages as they made their way from Wiluna to Fremantle.

    But it took until last Friday night for the government to take action and stop transport of the lead.

    Acting Environment Minister Peter Collier told the media on New Year’s Day that he issued the stop work order at 6pm.

    As reported yesterday by PerthNow, questions are now being asked as to whether new Environment Minister Bill Marmion knew of the leak, and if so, why he didn’t act.

    Mr Marmion has been holidaying in Busselton, leaving Mr Collier to face the music.

    He is due to front the press at 2.30pm today.]

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/stop-lead-carbonate-export-from-fremantle-says-carles/story-e6frg13u-1225981124909?from=public_rss

  23. I don’t live in WA (thank goodness), but I am fed up with their superior attitude. Suddenly they are all doing very well over there, thank you very much, and have forgotten that the rest of Australia subsidised them for donkey’s years before the discovery of iron ore in the north. The mining tax is a fair tax because the people of this country own the minerals found here, and are entitled to a fair return on their sale. I don’t understand why a lot of people in WA think it is okay for a handfull of very rich mining bosses to grow richer selling the minerals that rightly belong to the people in the first place.
    The federal govt is piss-weak – they could control the whole industry by threatening to withdraw export licences to those miners who don’t toe the line. Now if you all think that is extreme, consider what happened to SA in the 50’s and 60’s? SA was the major producer of iron ore in this country and they were forbidden to export any of their product – it had to be processed for use in this country, and before gaining an export licence. Anyone remember Iron Knob, Whyalla steel mills etc.?? Well, WA and subsequent coalition govts killed all that off didn’t they?
    Seems to me that the people of WA now want to keep all their new found wealth for themselves – selfish lot! Well that is not how it works because we are a COMMONWEALTH and the constitution says we share the common wealth through redistribution of financial resources throughout the country.
    And don’t give me that nonsense about secession — the last time I looked, it would require a referendum to be passed by a majority of people in a majority of states throughout the country. And none of us are that stupid (I hope) – we would all like to be paid back by WA for the decades we in the eastern states and SA subsidised you lot over there before your new found wealth appeared!

  24. Dovif,
    Your argument goes out the window when you say the tax makes investment inprofitable.
    Its a super tax, only payable when your company makes a super profit. The reason it was considered a good tax was that the royalties were paid per tonne, not per profit. I take it your just an apologist for the mega wealth that you find some need to defend.
    My understanding of economics is not great, but having lectured internationally in finance and corporate banking its enough to understand the basics. Oh as as for bull, I have a PHD in crap detecting and it the alarms are going off in regard to you last effort.
    However, you do make some fine points. Its all about spin, its about convincing the population that taxing the Mega rich is just a bad idea, however, taxing the poor old middle class, making their children pay for the privedge of a Uni education, (one of the most clearly shown ways of improving productivity) is just a good old conservative value that must be right.
    If we could only get people to see that medicare is some nasty socialist plot how much better off we would be. User pays I say, unless your a multi-national, especially in the fields of energy, iron, car manufacturing etc.
    Let the Third world provide our slave labour so in the grand utopium of internationalism we can have a level playing field but unequal wages, environmental protection and freedoms. Oh life is great as part of the ruling class, bring me another peasant.

  25. Andrew Waddell – one of the four Labor MPs said to have signed up for Tom Stephens’ plans for a spill – writes on Twitter regarding Ripper’s spray at Stephens:

    [If only we attacked the Government like this http://yhoo.it/fhnioQ instead of our own, we could be doing a lot better in the polls.]

  26. [ William Bowe
    Posted Monday, January 3, 2011 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
    Andrew Waddell – one of the four Labor MPs said to have signed up for Tom Stephens’ plans for a spill – writes on Twitter regarding Ripper’s spray at Stephens:

    If only we attacked the Government like this http://yhoo.it/fhnioQ instead of our own, we could be doing a lot better in the polls.
    ]

    Andrew obviously hasn’t been reading his leader’s media releases or online videos etc.

    And he han’t been seeing how those comments have, or more accurately haven’t been reported by our facile media.

  29. I think Alannah MacTiernan’s moved on. There was some scuttlebutt in the Perth Voice a few weeks ago where she ‘refused to deny’ running for mayor of the Town of Vincent later this year (she’d previously denied any interest in running for Lord Mayor of Perth, against Lisa Scaffidi). If she did, I would actually vote in local govt elections for the first time in my life.

    I’ve actually met Eric Ripper, in his position as Belmont MP when I lived in Cloverdale and he was doing a meet ‘n’ greet / Q&A thing at the local rec centre. I asked him a question about the crap bus services in the eastern suburbs (oldest, creakiest buses in the Transperth fleet, and forget about going anywhere east of Belmont Forum after hours); he spent about 3 min waffling and not answering the question. Seemed like a nice enough guy talking to him afterwards, but that one thing annoyed me.

  31. Which Newspoll Qtyly result is rite

    this one shows 42/58
    but 21/12 Newspoll Qtly by State of total 5687 Octo- Dec says WA 45/55
    with Libs/nats 3% less , othrs up 2% and Labor up 1%

  32. not message clear , ie only diff 20/12 vs this is is one Labor Fed and this State Labor

    so diff not alot in WA happy with Labor
    so mining tax must be key

  34. [33 William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, January 4, 2011 at 12:11 am | Permalink
    Ron, this is a state poll. The 20/12 one was federal.
    ]

    You missed this bit.

    [ Ron
    Posted Tuesday, January 4, 2011 at 12:08 am | Permalink
    not message clear , ie only diff 20/12 vs this is is one Labor Fed and this State Labor

    so diff not alot in WA happy with Labor
    so mining tax must be key
    ]

    And Ron is correct is saying that the Mining Tax is affecting State Labor by Imputation.

  35. William

    I did said that but my bad not put that in my ist post sorry & not explain what my Q is

    I had a Q which Newspoll Qtyl was rite becuase mining tax seems common factor of both Qtlys but Qtly State poll suggests 3% worser effect on State factors alone 42/58 (State) vs 45/55 Federol) , but with incr electricity State chgs hitting hip pockets I did Q that would cause WA State LIBERALS not to decr there vote , tho sit along away away

  36. tho STILL that mining tax is clearly biggest elephant to me to both State & Fed Labor , given both low , and from same time about ! , mining tax intro by Swan !

    yet it will help working familys , and only takes Supa profits , not ordinary profits

  37. [ The Town of Vincent? Why bother? Revenge on the Catania family? ]

    Because she lives there, I suppose. It’s a hell of a long way from Armadale, where she was the ‘local’ MP, but she’s forgiven for being a good minister, and getting Armadale a new train station. I’ve lived in Armadale too, and I can see why she’d prefer to live in Mt Lawley. 😛

    Catania didn’t win by that much in 2007… only 51.6% against Sally Lake (who gets mentioned sometimes in the Voice as the leader of the green / left faction). Not sure what effect MacTiernan running would have… it’d depend who she took more votes from, if she didn’t win herself. I bet the turnout would be more than the 34.6% it was last time.

  41. WA is small, it’s hard not have a ‘link’ to Brian Burke. If the Liberals try attacking Labor over tenuous connections to him they’ll end up taking out some of their own, like they accidentally did to Ian Campbell a few years ago. Failing that, Labor can go tit for tat, find out who Noel Crichton-Brown’s latest errand boy is and shaft the Libs that way.

    Whoever ends up as Labor leader needs to absolutely and totally ban contact with Burke and Grill, like Geoff Gallop did. Ditching that was Alan Carpenter’s first big mistake and it quite possibly cost him the election all by itself.

    Also, I’d love to see Ben Wyatt as leader just for the interplay between him and uncle Ken, on the other side. Bearing in mind the next WA election will be a few months before the federal one (if that goes full term), a good way to make Ken uncomfortable would be to ask him who he supports out of Wyatt and Barnett.

  42. [41 Bird of paradox
    Posted Tuesday, January 4, 2011 at 1:51 am | Permalink
    WA is small, it’s hard not have a ‘link’ to Brian Burke. If the Liberals try attacking Labor over tenuous connections to him they’ll end up taking out some of their own, like they accidentally did to Ian Campbell a few years ago. Failing that, Labor can go tit for tat, find out who Noel Crichton-Brown’s latest errand boy is and shaft the Libs that way.

    Whoever ends up as Labor leader needs to absolutely and totally ban contact with Burke and Grill, like Geoff Gallop did. Ditching that was Alan Carpenter’s first big mistake and it quite possibly cost him the election all by itself.]

    Barnett will still try the Burke link as it still has some legs.

    [Also, I’d love to see Ben Wyatt as leader just for the interplay between him and uncle Ken, on the other side. Bearing in mind the next WA election will be a few months before the federal one (if that goes full term), a good way to make Ken uncomfortable would be to ask him who he supports out of Wyatt and Barnett.
    ]

    Actually it’s Cousin Ken – and Ken hasn’t been forthcoming about supporting his fellow indigenous folk with LNG plant.

  43. Gareth Parker in The West: “Mr Ripper claimed Mr Stephens was motivated by a 20 year old grudge which has its roots in Mr Ripper’s help to bring down Peter Dowding for Carmen Lawrence, proving that no one does bitterness like Labor.”

  44. [William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, January 4, 2011 at 2:32 am | Permalink
    Gareth Parker in The West: “Mr Ripper claimed Mr Stephens was motivated by a 20 year old grudge which has its roots in Mr Ripper’s help to bring down Peter Dowding for Carmen Lawrence, proving that no one does bitterness like Labor.”
    ]

    Oh don’t tempt me to reply 🙂

  46. “Yet on the other threads, you and others want Labor to go hard against media bias by taking them on – yet here you criticise WA Labor for doing EXACTLY what you want Federal Labor to do.”

    I think I have been reasonably consistent in saying Labor should react to every misrepresentation and lie – much as Stephen Conroy has started to do. I have also been a strong advocate of looking at the way the ABC has overreached with its 24 hour news service and highly derivative web presence which is clearly reliant on sub-editors not journalists.

    That is different from taking biased media coverage personally and withdrawing ad revenue in a bid to influence editorial, which is what the Royal Show episode was all about. Any PR person and indeed journo will tell you that is a sure way to exacerbate the situation.

    What is needed is thick hide and a long-term, consistent and very patient approach to correcting mistruths. If the papers are being dishonest then get on radio and TV at every opportunity and sell good policies with proper facts and yes, the occasional good sound bite.

    Labor doesn’t seem to have the patience for that. Indeed at federal level Labor actually legitimised all the negative coverage with a poorly judged mea culpa that tainted good projects as bad – in essence saying the media had been right all along.

    Finally, it has to remembered Labor blew the last election. It could have won regardless of the media if the election had been better timed and less arrogance displayed.

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