Morgan has produced another poll on the Victorian state election, and this one’s a lot more credible than the last – a statewide phone survey conducted from a sample of 943 over the past three nights, with a margin of error of a bit over 3 per cent. Despite nervous talk emanating from the Labor camp, the poll gives them a comfortable two-party lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 15.5 per cent for the Greens. I gather the poll consists of the inner-city results from Tuesday topped up with a further 667 responses from elsewhere, with the former presumably weighted downwards to reflect the fact that they only account for 4.5 per cent of statewide enrolment. However, I’m not entirely sure what to make of Gary Morgan’s accompanying spiel in which he says the headline two-party figure is “slightly ‘misleading’ as it includes a very high ALP Two-party preferred vote (72.5%) cf. L-NP (27.5%) in the marginal Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond, Northcote, Brunswick and Melbourne”. It isn’t clear to me why the predictable weakness of the Liberals in this area would contribute to a “misleading” total any more than would Labor’s corresponding weakness in rural areas and wealthier parts of the city. The poll also has John Brumby leading Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 47.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, although Baillieu has better personal ratings: Brumby is on 38 per cent approval and 43 per cent disapproval, while Baillieu’s approval and disapproval are both 40 per cent.
Barking
I was just pointing out what the article said. My thoughts on the matter were not ventured.
Adam, Any mention of the biggest political website of them all.
Poll Bludger
In all seriousness it is a bad thing to have a full and open campaign across the full sphere of public debate.
gee my poor english.
In all seriousness it is a bad thing to have a full and open campaign across the full sphere of public debate.
Should have read is it a bad thing to have a full and open campaign across the full sphere of public debate.
In short no.
If Ron has dyslexia, then I apologies unreservedly.
Its the first I ever heard of this and quite rightly its none of my business, maybe a lesson for us all not to assume anything about who other people are.
Greensboro Joffa and Ron do, however, attack any anti-alp comments and bloggers, as such I will continue to return jibes that are slung. I make the point that the following quote from Wiki came from an area that clearly stated it is in no way linked to IQ, therefore I think its a fair comment that Ron, knows exactly what he is doing and I will continue to respond accordingly.
“Dyslexia is a brain-based type of learning disability that specifically impairs a person’s ability to read. These individuals typically read at levels significantly lower than expected despite having normal intelligence. Although the disorder varies from person to person, common characteristics among people with dyslexia are difficulty with spelling, phonological processing (the manipulation of sounds), and/or rapid visual-verbal responding. In adults, dyslexia usually occurs after a brain injury or in the context of dementia. It can also be inherited in some families, and recent studies have identified a number of genes that may predispose an individual to developing dyslexia”.[1]
mb,
I think we were trawled by the media on the previous post.
Libs like Pike
Posted Thursday, November 18, 2010 at 4:44 pm | Permalink
Geez GG – you have a lot of spare time on your hands. The Labor MP you work for obviously doesn’t have much work for you to do?
Who was it again – Brooks, Herbert??
See 48.
Should have read is it a bad thing to have a full and open campaign across the full sphere of public debate.
Its really an issues of boundaries and ethics, some of the conduct I believe crosses these boundaries. ALP staffers were clearly involved in the Walters affair, some were heard bragging. That it backfired so spectacularily is besides the point.
Barking both GG and Ron are completely upfront about being ALP supporters therefore expecting them not to go into bat for their party is a bit like asking an Essendon support to allow Collingwood and Carlton supporters to slag off about the mighty bombers and not make any effort to put a counter arguement
mb,
Essendon supporters are only Collingwood supporters who can read.
Back to your lives citizens, I’m off, kids cricket.
[Essendon supporters are only Collingwood supporters who can read.]
And Collingwood supporters back the 2010 premiers.
Gary,
Living in the past. How very Collingwood.
I hear there is anger about energy bills that might hurt Labor. How exactly are the Liberals going to reduce them? Who was it that privatised electricity so we could have more competition and cheaper prices?
They should only allow the well-informed to vote
Andrew – If only the well informed voted then I would be allowed to vote no less than 100 times.
GG- you keep haha
[Living in the past. How very Collingwood.]
It’s still 2010 or don’t Essendon supporters understand how the calendar works?
gary,
Yesterday’s papers have yesterday’s news.
Pegasus @10
Perhaps aka Icarus. Still too close to call.
Going back to Williams intro on the Morgan poll.
If you take the 276 inner city voters out of the sample – and then put them back in proportionately – you get a sample of 700 – which breaks Lib 55 – ALP 45
Highly implausible!!!
My view at this stage is that it will be reasonably close with Labor ending up in the 46-48 range. The inner city seats are to some extent the wild card – with the ALP in more danger in Brunswick and Richmond than the others.
Someone above was bagging Bronwyn Pike – I am generally not sympathetic to the Brumby government but I have always thought that Bronwyn Pike has done a reasonable job – she has been both Health and Education Minister and seemingly kept both out of trouble.
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, November 20, 2010 at 12:01 pm | Permalink
Barking
“I was just pointing out what the article said. My thoughts on the matter were not ventured.”
How very disengendiogenous of you , prey tell , preach to wicked
You live accross in churchs town , so youse dont know Age like all papers i access online went from a slite left paper only in oz , to a Greens sympathettic one , vey anti Labor…since Ron Walker ex Fed Lib Treasuer became chair Why you ask , check Fed polls You is a Green but not realiz swing middle voters dont like Greens & votes show that Best clever way t hurt Labor is via diect attacks AND smearing Labor/its allianse by praising Greens Now Murdoch local Herald paper its competitor use diff technique cannt be tht subtle , so just full on anti Labor & pro Liberal You prob live in worlds where News barons is not clever & is unbiased
only diff this election is Ballea “personally pssed off Herald editor , long story so its run neutral But under any othr Lib State Leader and for Abbott its normal Adelaide Adverizer stuff (then OO well just std normal Lib stuff
so ‘blogggr’ stuff is a beatup by anti Labor Age newspaper
so why not coment on facts we know , PB biggest not mentioned , Its not tax payer funded so anyone can post in own time on Social network , and assume all partys volunteers do so with or w/o Party’s assist Sosial networks unlike PB is open to all , Obama pioneeered it Anyway thought those Sites were only for gossip and sex
so a beat up by anti labor Age , directed at progressive labor voters
but at PB , only ones i’ve suggested those fall into that Party inspired directed volunteeer blogger categery is Pegasus and Rod Hagen always defending Greens polisys and quotin greens web site (often selectiv i might add) , and i put it to both a week ago on pb
blackburnpseph,
It was only Glen. He appears to only have three words for all politicians; incompetent, gutless and hubris. Bless his socks.
Agree that Pike has been a very good Member and Minisiter.
I think I might be posting this in the wrong spot but I was interested in a few people’s comments regarding the seat of Footscray a couple of threads back. Just wanted to note that this election I have received the most political advertising material ever since moving here, including a brochure from the Liberals! Wonders will never cease.
Greens are certainly giving it their best shot and I’ve heard more from Martha Thomson in the last few weeks than in the last few years. She even sent us a brochure about buying safe toys for the kiddies for Christmas! Isn’t that nice.
Nothing at all from Catherine Cumming, which is not surprising – she’s been in local government for years (currently Bluestone ward) and as far as I can tell has achieved nothing. Her brother John Cumming was elected to Saltwater ward last local election; he is a Labor party member but was not endorsed as a Labor candidate. (Though he did issue campaign material that made it look like he was – see http://maribyrnong-leader.whereilive.com.au/news/story/labor-brand-fight/).
Party politics aside, I’d like to see us putting greater emphasis on the merits of individual candidates. Do they deserve to hold a seat? How much have they engaged with their electorate? Especially as it’s becoming increasingly difficult to tell one party from another these days.
[gary,
Yesterday’s papers have yesterday’s news.]
True but irrelevant.
70
The Greens have no chance at winning because of the Liberal preferences going to the ALP. Cumming needs to get ahead of either the Liberals or the Greens (she was ahead of the Greens last time but I think the Green vote will be higher this time) to get past the other and compete with the ALP. On a previous thread I saw the ALP versus Cumming 2CP estimated to be a 11-12% margin from the last election. The seat is a probably ALP retain but the ALP is not a certainty in Footscray.
Tom,
I’m never sure if you are deliberately misleading or tilting at windmills.
https://www.flemingtonsportsbet.com.au/betting.asp?racing=False&Sport=Elections&MatchComp=Comp&EventName=VIC+Seat+%2D+Footscray
[Any mention of the biggest political website of them all.
Poll Bludger
In all seriousness it is a bad thing to have a full and open campaign across the full sphere of public debate.]
If that was the case then William should not have baned demoarcyATwork for publishing anti Greens slogans. He has now set up his own blog Poll blogger in response to his unjust ban and referes to Poll Bludger as a pack of Green Tea Leaf readers.
[The Greens have no chance at winning because of the Liberal preferences going to the ALP. Cumming needs to get ahead of either the Liberals or the Greens (she was ahead of the Greens last time but I think the Green vote will be higher this time) to get past the other and compete with the ALP. On a previous thread I saw the ALP versus Cumming 2CP estimated to be a 11-12% margin from the last election. The seat is a probably ALP retain but the ALP is not a certainty in Footscray.]
They have an outside chance in Melbourne and even less in Richmond. Footscray is a certain win for the ALP. – Dream on if you think otherwise. The DLP could win the firth seat in Northern Metropolitan Region if they can poll over 5%
In one weeks time it will be all over but for the shouting. The Greens will not be in Government, Brumby should be returned with a reduced majority and 85% of Greens voters will preference Labor as their second choice ahead of the Liberal National Coalition. Bob Brown will expire and the Greens will lose support.
[referes to Poll Bludger as a pack of Green Tea Leaf readers.]
Green Tea is very good for you and delicious (Dragon Well is my personal favourite). 😀
QQ,
Your link to poll blogger doesn’t work.
[Your link to poll blogger doesn’t work.]
It doesn’t need to. Just sit back and envision a site that receives zero comments, where every post from Antony Green and myself is cut-and-pasted in full without permission, add a small amount of Anthony’s chronic-obsessive raving and drooling that you’ve heard from him a million times before, and voila.
Presumably QQ is another reincarnation of D@W. How else would he know about the website?
William,
That would be Anthony Van Der Craats and not Antony Green?
I feel like i have come late to the party
WTF is happening re antony anthony D@W and bilbo
is this some faustian pact?
I get a lot of things wrong, GG, but you’ll never catch me spelling Antony Green with an H. I actually thought I detected stylistic distinctions between QQ and Anthony – the name in particular bespeaks a most uncharacteristic sense of whimsy. However, IP address investigations suggest otherwise.
William. I have had a look back at your threads in February-March this year and am thinking of making a “comments per day” index leading into elections – there were many more comments on the SA and Tas threads than these Vic threads. I conclude that this probably means a not-so-close election in comparison.
Which, even this far out, makes it look not very good for Anna Bligh (8 posts on your last Queensland thread on November 5th.)
William,
Fine. But, no one apart from savants would know the difference. Your earlier post might be misconstrued as an attack on Antony. Just saying.
[I conclude that this probably means a not-so-close election in comparison.]
No doubt it tells you something, but I’d doubt that’s more than one factor. Post-federal election fatigue would be another, to which I’ve fallen victim as much as anybody – outside of Tasmania, I don’t think I’ve ever had as little to say about a state election before.
Well, after a slow start the election seems to have finally arrived in the seat of Kilsyth. You can barely drive down a main road without seeing David Hodgett or Vicki Setches looking back at you from a sign.
I can’t remember seeing so many signs and banners on the side of the road in an election. There are heaps more than during the federal election, from both sides. I’ve seen David Hodgett at the local shops at least 4 times in the past month or so. He’s all over this electorate like a bad smell.
Okay then, a clarification for non-savants: #79 is an attack on Anthony, not Antony.
RR
The sense of ennui is almost palpable.
[
I conclude that this probably means a not-so-close election in comparison.
]
I also think the comparative lack of interest in this election is likely down to post federal election fatigue. It was a marathon!
RR,
Don’t always agree with your opinions. However, the link to Melanie Safka gives you bonus points in my character assessment machine.
Yes, I was pretty excited about SA and Tasmania (and UK) elections, but by now I’m just feeling exhausted!
[madcyrilPosted Saturday, November 20, 2010 at 8:25 pm | Permalink I conclude that this probably means a not-so-close election in comparison.
I also think the comparative lack of interest in this election is likely down to post federal election fatigue. It was a marathon!
]
And if the Federal Election was held now or in Early December would we have seen a similar feeling in Victoria ??
I feel that is one of the downsides of having fixed terms.
RR,
If you want to be energised, come and do 10ks of letterboxing for Labor with me tomorrow.
Too many polls is not enough.
[come and do 10ks of letterboxing for Labor with me tomorrow.]
Non-Labor Spouse would probably put Non-Labor stuff in as well.
I’ll see your 10kms and raise you 100km tomorrow on a bike. I have to run out about 10,000
RR,
Tell her your having an affair with Greg Barber. That’ll get you out of the house no problems.
73
I do not put huge sway in betting markets predicting elections. It is too hard to get insider knowledge on how an election is going to turn out for the betting market to be of much weight compared to electoral analysis. The betting market on elections is determined largely by the opinions of gamblers of what is going to happen.
I think there might be two reasons for less interest in PB posts on Victoria. the first being many people are taking a break fropm politics and also I get the impression that many of the busier posters here are from outside of Victoria.
84
[I have had a look back at your threads in February-March this year and am thinking of making a “comments per day” index leading into elections]
Have looked at Tasmani Feb 12 (election called) till 6pm March 20 (election day)
Actually – not that much action until the last week
261 Posts first 30 days till including March 13
422 Posts last seven days including March 20
Will look at SA – many more comments
ps – GG, you were a major contributor to Tas threads!