Morgan has produced another poll on the Victorian state election, and this one’s a lot more credible than the last – a statewide phone survey conducted from a sample of 943 over the past three nights, with a margin of error of a bit over 3 per cent. Despite nervous talk emanating from the Labor camp, the poll gives them a comfortable two-party lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 15.5 per cent for the Greens. I gather the poll consists of the inner-city results from Tuesday topped up with a further 667 responses from elsewhere, with the former presumably weighted downwards to reflect the fact that they only account for 4.5 per cent of statewide enrolment. However, I’m not entirely sure what to make of Gary Morgan’s accompanying spiel in which he says the headline two-party figure is “slightly ‘misleading’ as it includes a very high ALP Two-party preferred vote (72.5%) cf. L-NP (27.5%) in the marginal Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond, Northcote, Brunswick and Melbourne”. It isn’t clear to me why the predictable weakness of the Liberals in this area would contribute to a “misleading” total any more than would Labor’s corresponding weakness in rural areas and wealthier parts of the city. The poll also has John Brumby leading Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 47.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, although Baillieu has better personal ratings: Brumby is on 38 per cent approval and 43 per cent disapproval, while Baillieu’s approval and disapproval are both 40 per cent.
Just done SA 2010
election called 19? 20? Feb
week 1 – 616
week 2 – 423
week 3 – 1113
week 4 – 2200
almost perfect exponential growth!
And “blasts from the past” – Peter Young, bob1234, TheTruthHurts!
Interesting post by Antony Green on how the Communists were treated on preferences by the major parties back in the day.
Does GG contribute anything other than trolling all to the left and right of his/her position??
😛
102
It would have been interesting had there been PR Legislative Councils when the Communists were at their hight.
Are all three of them banned (Peter Young, bob1234, TheTruthHurts)
Wrong, wrong and right.
106
bob1234 is no longer banned?
I seem to have him in moderation. He’s more than welcome to continue not coming here.
Sorry MB, I thought that was a statement rather than a question (i.e. I missed the “are” at the start).
William,
Offtopic, but check my recent post on the Morgan thread – it may be of interest 🙂
Sunday Herald Sun backs Labor.
So we have The Age backing neither, with a slight nod towards Labor, and The Sun Hun backing Labor on the grounds of economic responsibility!
Mmm. Must check outside and make sure I’m still on the right planet, given their normal performance! It is not often that I find myself agreeing with a Murdoch paper over a Fairfax one, on those occasions when I agree with either! The Hun has been making some other slight noises in this direction recently though I guess.
whilst the sunday age is backing neither, the front page Crime Shock!, saying essentially that Vic is safer so why is law and order an issue, is a big help to Labor
This is the first time in a while that a Murdoch paper has endorsed the election of a Labor Government?
Or is that THE HERALD SUN isn’t quite as pro-Liberal as its Sydney and national stable mates?
William – nah that’s cool, a short answer deserves a short answer
Another dodgy poll surfaces drawing dubious conclusions.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/trouble-for-alp-as-greens-set-to-grab-backlash-votes/story-fn5kmqy2-1225957478638
GG
Is that 200 across the four electorates, ie 50 in each, or 200 in each. Either way it’s useless but it’s more funny if they are analysing 50 in an electorate.
In a seat like Richmond a sample of 50 is way too small.
If you poll Burnley or Cremore the Liberals will be close to coming second, but if you poll 50 people from the North Richmond housing estate then the ALP will be winning the seat on primaries and if you poll just 50 people in Smith Street Collingwood then the Greens would be on target to win the seat.
In this year’s SA election, Murdoch papers ‘The Advertiser’ and (especially the) ‘Sunday Mail’ gave Rann and co a hard time during the campaign but endorsed Labor in their final editorials, albeit without enthusiasm.
[
LABOR faces a backlash in key seats as support for the Greens soars for this week’s state election, a Sunday Herald Sun survey has shown.
A vast number of voters in seats that could bring Victoria’s verdict down to the wire also remain undecided days out from voting, according to the snapshot survey of 200 people across the electorates of Mitcham, Mt Waverley, Melbourne and Bendigo
]
No mention of how the so called poll was done. Who would have thought Morgan’s effort the other day would be topped in the stupidity stakes. GhostWhoVotes says the margin of error is 14%?
cyril,
It was probably done by the dude who told Walters he was sitting on 44% Primary in Melbourne.
[A vast number of voters in seats that could bring Victoria’s verdict down to the wire also remain undecided days out from voting, according to the snapshot survey of 200 people across the electorates of Mitcham, Mt Waverley, Melbourne and Bendigo]
200? 50 per area? What a joke.
Who says elections are boring?
http://media.smh.com.au/national/selections/voter-fatigue-try-sex-sells-2054955.html?exc_from=strap
I do not think that the ALP primary will be over 40% this time. They may well get a lower primary percentage than under Kirner. The ALP will however get a lot more preferences (mainly from the Greens) than in 1992 and so will still be more competitive.
This election could be the first Victorian State Election since 1970 where the party with the most primaries did not provide the Premier (the Coalition combined had more primaries in 1999 and the not in coalition Liberals and Nationals got a higher combined primary vote in 1988 though).
Gotta luv the media. Sunday Age is constantly demanding strong action from Governments and insisting that Opposition leaders take a stand. Their editorial today on who to vote for? – um, er we’re not sure, but maybe Labor, but don’t bet on it. So, so weak and irrelevant.
al,
It’s good that “they are not intentionally pompous” at The Sunday Age.
The Greens winning friends and influencing rural voters.
Please tell me this is not an actual advert.
Channel 7 at their best. Instead of concentrating on policy they’re more interested in advertising their news with some type of “gaffe” made by Lenders in an interview. How typical.
So who is responsible for this?
Letterboxed around Burwood today
confessions 127
cringe!
Even as a Labor supporter I hope our relatives in the country don’t see this.
It will not help the Greens. It will not help Labor. It will not help the non-Coalition cause.
whereas even non-labor spouse just loved the “debating” tips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2ch9StMof0&feature=related
memo to Greens – if you want to do parody, please make it just a little bit funny!
Bob Katter’s Hat:
I can’t check because the site is down, but a commenter at LP said they’d gotten a flier which sounds like the one you link to. They Google mapped(??) the address and came up with (I think) the Australian Family Association.
BKH, I’ve done a bit of Googling on the authorisation notice, and it turns out to be from an anti-abortion group.
Which is, indeed, “an initiative of the Australian Family Association”.
confessions, just did the Google map check and the Australian Family Association are at the address printed on the flyer.
Ah William is already on to the matter
RR:
My first thought when I saw the ad was it had to be an anti-Greens group that had produced it. I reckon they’ll pull it soon.
so the Herald Sun has endorsed Labor. Can’t say I am surprised considering the favourable press by them.
Does anyone know what the gaffe by Lenders is all about?
confessions,
The Greens are fighting alleged stereotyping by stereotyping their opponents.
The hypocrisy is breath taking.
GG:
They deserve to be kicked for that. Just wait until Andrew Bolt gets hold of it!
[Greensborough GrowlerPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 6:18 pm | Permalinkconfessions,
The Greens are fighting alleged stereotyping by stereotyping their opponents.
The hypocrisy is breath taking.
]
And it looks like something shown on Community Television by one of those radical type groups.
Frank,
You got my tweets? I’m on trainer wheels.
[Greensborough GrowlerPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 6:27 pm | PermalinkFrank,
You got my tweets? I’m on trainer wheels
]
[Frank CalabresePosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 6:30 pm | PermalinkGreensborough GrowlerPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 6:27 pm | PermalinkFrank,
You got my tweets? I’m on trainer wheels
]
Bugger clicked send too soon – nope – what name are you tweeting with ?? I’m frankscan65
Frank,
GBoroughGrowler
[The Age has obtained internal Labor documents revealing the identity, aliases and passwords of more than a dozen Labor players in the Twitter campaign as well as extensive lists of websites and blogs being trawled and manipulated by Labor’s social media team.
Each twitter alias has a ”purpose” labelled either ”Pro Labor”, ”Attack Dog” or ”Super Attack”, with a member of Labor’s three-person social media team responsible for mobilising them as campaign issues arise.
The documents also include a second list of Labor ”punters” for Twitter with the warning ”not to be used until the final week” and notes Labor MPs and candidates who are active on Twitter, including the Premier, Water Minister Tim Holding and Education Minister Bronwyn Pike.
There is also a category of tweeters called ”Obviously ALP” that target Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu and the Greens. One is Ted Staffer, a ”satire Ted staffer account”, and Anti Greens, a ”Greens attack account”.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-election-2010/its-smear-by-twitter-as-labor-staffers-go-underground-20101119-1811i.html
Adam, I don’t think that comment was that fantastic that you needed to post it more than once.
[146 AdamPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 6:39 pm | PermalinkThe Age has obtained internal Labor documents revealing the identity, aliases and passwords of more than a dozen Labor players in the Twitter campaign as well as extensive lists of websites and blogs being trawled and manipulated by Labor’s social media team.
Each twitter alias has a ”purpose” labelled either ”Pro Labor”, ”Attack Dog” or ”Super Attack”, with a member of Labor’s three-person social media team responsible for mobilising them as campaign issues arise.
The documents also include a second list of Labor ”punters” for Twitter with the warning ”not to be used until the final week” and notes Labor MPs and candidates who are active on Twitter, including the Premier, Water Minister Tim Holding and Education Minister Bronwyn Pike.
There is also a category of tweeters called ”Obviously ALP” that target Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu and the Greens. One is Ted Staffer, a ”satire Ted staffer account”, and Anti Greens, a ”Greens attack account”.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-election-2010/its-smear-by-twitter-as-labor-staffers-go-underground-20101119-1811i.html
]
Old News and so what – ALL political parties do it – including your beloved Greens.
On that flier, does anyone know what “Drug Additions” are? Are they additives to mix with Heroin?
Adam 146
I was thinking about this today. Maybe it is all a scam from a non-Labor source. You feed this “list” to The Age – it would be pretty easy to label certain tweeters and bloggers – they have no real way of checking whether it is for real and they just go with the story.
(Of course I could be part of Labor’s secret “social media team, in which case I had better take back any adverse comments made here about the Labor Party!)
Is that the best the Greens and their supporters can do when they have been humiliated by one of their own advertisements. Try and divert attention by linking to an old story about Labor utilizing social media.