Morgan phone poll: 52.5-47.5 to Labor in Victoria

Morgan has produced another poll on the Victorian state election, and this one’s a lot more credible than the last – a statewide phone survey conducted from a sample of 943 over the past three nights, with a margin of error of a bit over 3 per cent. Despite nervous talk emanating from the Labor camp, the poll gives them a comfortable two-party lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 15.5 per cent for the Greens. I gather the poll consists of the inner-city results from Tuesday topped up with a further 667 responses from elsewhere, with the former presumably weighted downwards to reflect the fact that they only account for 4.5 per cent of statewide enrolment. However, I’m not entirely sure what to make of Gary Morgan’s accompanying spiel in which he says the headline two-party figure is “slightly ‘misleading’ as it includes a very high ALP Two-party preferred vote (72.5%) cf. L-NP (27.5%) in the marginal Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond, Northcote, Brunswick and Melbourne”. It isn’t clear to me why the predictable weakness of the Liberals in this area would contribute to a “misleading” total any more than would Labor’s corresponding weakness in rural areas and wealthier parts of the city. The poll also has John Brumby leading Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 47.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, although Baillieu has better personal ratings: Brumby is on 38 per cent approval and 43 per cent disapproval, while Baillieu’s approval and disapproval are both 40 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

168 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 52.5-47.5 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. [madcyrilPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 6:45 pm | PermalinkIs that the best the Greens and their supporters can do when they have been humiliated by one of their own advertisements. Try and divert attention by linking to an old story about Labor utilizing social media.
    ]

    Especially from a poster who is flexible with the truth when posting about ALP policy and even his own experiences.

  4. [Another dodgy poll surfaces drawing dubious conclusions.]

    You don’t like the results, so the Herald Sun poll automatically becomes “dodgy” ?

    The “conclusion” of a Greens surge is backed up by the results of the Morgan polls.

  6. [
    You don’t like the results, so the Herald Sun poll automatically becomes “dodgy” ?

    The “conclusion” of a Greens surge is backed up by the results of the Morgan polls.
    ]

    You mean the Morgan polls that William described thus

    [
    Roy Morgan has exposed itself to ridicule by not only publishing a phone poll of the four Labor-versus-Greens seats from a sample of just 276, but also purporting that meaningful conclusions can be drawn from the seat-by-seat breakdowns
    ]

    From what I can gather, that poll had a bigger sample than the one in the Herald Sun.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/18/victorian-election-minus-nine-days/

  12. GG

    And now it’s led me to great Melanie versions of “Dont think twice it’s alright” and “Long Long Time”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJbXDX5z80g&feature=related
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7hrjATqSpA&feature=related

    But unfortunately also to William Shatner’s “Mr.Tambourine Man” and “Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0hTtsqiFCc&feature=fvw
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Ar79f8aN8&feature=related

    “The horror, the horror” – hardly does these last two justice!

  15. You mean the Morgan polls that William described thus

    Roy Morgan has exposed itself to ridicule by not only publishing a phone poll of the four Labor-versus-Greens seats from a sample of just 276, but also purporting that meaningful conclusions can be drawn from the seat-by-seat breakdowns

    The nationwide Roy Morgan face-to-face poll also shows an increase in the Greens first preference vote of 1.5 percentage points, as does Essential Research which shows an increase of 1 percentage point.

    I’m not saying that on the strength of the Herald Sun poll (with a not insignificant sample size of 200) the Greens are certain to take Melbourne & Mt. Waverly … just that we now have 3 polls showing a late Greens surge & anything is possible.

  17. I’d like to personally thank the leadership and cattle from both the ALP/Liberal coalition and the National Party for giving the Greens more free publicity, than in the History of Western Democracy.
    Now here is something for people to analyse, maybe greensboro joffa would take it on board.
    Who got the greatest return on their investment during the 2010 state victorian election.
    ALP probably5-10 mil, lots of IOU’s to developer types, (I heard of one marginal with incumbent princess that had 250k)
    Fibs with Nats support spending like there is no tomorrow, Pokies(AHA) mining, Coal, etc .3-7mil, we will of course never know.
    Or the Greens with a campaign budget of about 599k over refunds,
    Run a cost benefit analysis over that one sloppy joe.

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