Victorian election: week two, part one

John Brumby and Ted Baillieu went head-to-head on Friday for a low-rating and soon-to-be-forgotten leaders debate. Milanda Rout of The Australia wrote approvingly that Ted Baillieu “took a risk and showed he had some political backbone”, by “throwing insults and delivering the best and funniest lines of the debate”. John Ferguson of the Herald Sun thought Baillieu’s dithering over preferences meant he “won the theatre, but lost the politics”. Shaun Carney of The Age believed Brumby suffered from lack of experience – this was his first leaders debate, as there wasn’t one when he ran against Jeff Kennett in 1996 – while James Campbell of the Sunday Herald Sun faulted Brumby for “staring statesmanlike into the distance and talking about the future”. If you’d prefer to make up your own mind, you can watch it on iView.

Elsewhere:

• Tim Colebatch of The Age makes the unarguable assertion that Ted Baillieu’s efforts to get his message out have been “drowned out by factional opponents beating their drum to insist that the Liberals should not direct preferences to the Greens”. He also casts an eye over the Liberals’ recent record in Tasmania, the only case study where the Liberals have pursued the strategy of privileging Labor over the Greens advocated by John Howard and Helen Kroger:

Tasmania went to the polls in March. The Liberals topped the vote, but both sides ended up with 10 seats and the Greens with five. Liberal leader Will Hodgman had first rights but, under pressure from right-wing powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, refused to negotiate with the Greens. Labor leader David Bartlett went ahead and did so. So Labor and the Greens now have a coalition government, and it’s working well. The federal election saw the Liberal vote in Tasmania slump to 39 per cent after preferences — the party’s lowest vote in any state since World War II. Opinion polls show a collapse in Liberal support at state level. And The Mercury reports that Hodgman has now taken on Abetz for control of the party, declaring: “We cannot give away the middle ground. I will fight to make sure that doesn’t happen, even if it costs me my job.”

• Former federal Wills independent Phil Cleary has confirmed he will run in the seat of Brunswick. This further complicates the contest between Labor candidate Jane Garrett and Cyndi Dawes of the Greens, with Cleary making no secret of his intention to direct preferences to the latter. The seat is being vacated by the retirement of Labor member Carlo Carli.

• David Rood of The Age tells of “secret party research” from the ALP telling a familiar tale of ongoing inner-city drift to the Greens. The report found the most potent campaign remedy would be pamphlets trumpeting the fact that the Greens had voted with the Liberals 69 per cent of the time in parliament, as distinct from an existing strategy of “promoting the party’s stance on climate change and other progressive issues like social housing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

408 comments on “Victorian election: week two, part one”

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  7. [Yes, just a “bit” dubious, and I’ve known various world leaders who got more than 93% at elections!]

    And that was before voting even started!

  10. [Perhaps me and my OH ought to go down to the Burvale and stand outside the venue with a placard “This time vote Greens”.]

    Pegases,
    Are you in? did they cheque your shoes at the door.

  11. I’ve not seen Bailleau speak for any great length before, just snippets on the news on the rare occasion I hear Vic news.

    Sorry, but I don’t find him very compelling. Just another whingeing Liberal with no ideas.

  13. [confessionsPosted Wednesday, November 10, 2010 at 6:16 pm | PermalinkI’ve not seen Bailleau speak for any great length before, just snippets on the news on the rare occasion I hear Vic news.
    Sorry, but I don’t find him very compelling. Just another whingeing Liberal with no ideas.
    ]

    He is as dull as a Funeral Director – and people see him as a potential Premier ??

  14. He comes across as cheesey. His jokes are bad and reminds me of Malcolm Turnbull: trying too hard to appear a common man, but failing miserably to convince.

  15. [114 confessionsPosted Wednesday, November 10, 2010 at 6:22 pm | PermalinkHe comes across as cheesey. His jokes are bad and reminds me of Malcolm Turnbull: trying too hard to appear a common man, but failing miserably to convince.
    ]

    Liberals can’t do Common – must be hard for them when theyh live in snooty suburbs.

  19. I might as well copy this from the other thread – Deblonay at 1034.

    ~~~~~~~

    In the Victorian election watch the seat of Mildura now National held.
    All this week they have had Katter in their midst campaigning for the Mayor of Mildura who is standing as a in dependent’
    Mildura has an interesting history with indies in recent time
    Russel Savage ,won the seat in 1996 from a Liberal who was a favourite of then Premier Kennett
    Kennett never forgave Savage and he made his life in Parliament as unpleasant as possible.
    This so annoyed Savage that in 1999 when the election resulted in a hung parliament ,Savage,and two other indies,gave Labor his vote…and outed Kennett…a wonderfull irony as it ended Kennett’s political life.

    Savage supported the Labor Government,but in the end they did him in shamefully with a plan to dump toxic waste in the desert south of Mildura.
    Kennett had also closed the railway there to passengers(it still carries much freight )
    which Labor promised to reopen,but never did.

    Labor recently re-opened the railway line towards Mildura which Kennett had closed,but only as far as Maryborough(which is a Labor country marginal!!

    Local disappointment with Labor saw Savage beaten and the seat wemt back to the conservatives….now we may see another change…Katter thinks it’s possible and touts the virtues of a hung parliament

  21. [confessionsPosted Wednesday, November 10, 2010 at 6:28 pm | PermalinkEven his ‘idea’ for an alternative desal plant isn’t his – it’s pinched from WA Labor.
    ]

    Told ya’s Gallop was good – pity his Depression killed an excellent govt.

  24. [confessionsPosted Wednesday, November 10, 2010 at 6:32 pm | PermalinkA couple of the questionners have looked familiar to me. Sentencing man and uni student I feel I’ve seen before
    ]

    Lib Plants ?? Rottygate Mk2 ??

  28. Bird of paradox 119

    Yes, and the Nationals pulled a swifty on him by running a candidate who actually lived in NSW (over the river in Wentworth) and they managed to keep this very quiet until the guy crossed the bridge and slept in Mildura or something!

  30. [I have Greens supporters in my extended family and they all seem to blithely believe that the Greens likewise attacking Labor has no effect on Labor throughout the rest of Victoria. My argument is that Labor is already going to lose those inner city seats courtesy of the Liberal Party, and that this won’t affect the overall aim of a non-Coalition government, so Labor has little to lose attacking the Greens.]

    I don’t agree with the notion that the Greens attacking Labor strongly is to their advantage either. Quite the reverse, in fact. The Greens are far more likely to win votes by standing positively on their own platform than they are from simply bagging Labor. Yes, if Labor simply run a feral campaign they probably won’t see themselves as having much alternative, but if The Greens shift to ‘all out attack” mode too it will simply drive likely Labor “protest voters” straight to the Libs instead. Such things are not really in the interest of either Labor or The Greens in this election, no matter how certain either of them are about their own righteousness!.

  32. Yes Rod 130

    What matters is Coalition getting 42 seats or fewer (if Craig Ingram gets back and no other indies).

    I think Labor and the Greens haven’t really worked out what to do about each other – may take time!

  33. [
    Interesting that Katter’s been campaigning in Vic. I wouldn’t of thought his ’style’ would work there.
    ]

    I reckon it would go down ok in places like north west victoria

  34. Katter – our relatives in the North-West will love him!

    And seriously, I would rather watch Katter doing this Burvale thing than Baillieu!

    Speers – “So, headline tomorrow, ‘Baillieu will cut speed camera numbers’ ?”

    Baillieu – reverses at about 100 kmh in a 60 zone!

    At least Katter answers questions!!

  42. madcyril:

    I saw earlier you said you are a Liberal. Are you voting for the vic Libs, or independent?

    I’ll wait to see what Brumby has to say, but in my view he can’t be any worse than this, and at least the govt should have some ideas at least.

  43. [Baillieu is very bland, I agree.]
    Bring back Abbott – even he was more fun than this!

    Now crapping on about Doncaster rail “It’s fine to talk about it but nobody’s ever planned it”

    And (drum Roll) we are going to PLAN IT!!!!!

    madcyril you could soon catch an imaginary train because they are going to PLAN IT!!

  44. [
    I saw earlier you said you are a Liberal. Are you voting for the vic Libs, or independent?
    ]

    Confessions, I meant liberal in the true sense not the conservative Liberal party. I’ve always voted Labor!

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