Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49

GhostWhoVotes informs us a state Nielsen poll in The Age has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, and that the Greens primary vote is steady on 16 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: We now also have Newspoll which puts Labor’s lead at 51-49, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 5 per cent for the Nationals. The poll also shows a striking five point drop for the Greens to 14 per cent, which is coming off an all-time high and is not replicated in Nielsen. The two pollsters also give divergent impressions of John Brumby’s popularity: whereas Nielsen has his personal rating at plus 13 (approval 53 per cent, disapproval 40 per cent), Newspoll has it at minus six (42 per cent, 48 per cent). Newspoll also has Ted Baillieu at minus six (40 per cent, 46 per cent), while Nielsen has it at evens (45 per cent). Brumby has a slightly wider lead as preferred premier from Nielsen (53-37) than Newspoll (50-36). As was the case before the federal election, the Coalition’s supporters appear to be firmer in their intentions than Labor’s.

UPDATE 2: Full tables from the Nielsen poll here, courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

310 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49”

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  1. [DLP Sex Part and the Liberals with Family First and the Christians all in bed with each other. The thought haunts me.]

    Now there ia a cartoon in the making

  2. [maybe they sniff victory in their own right?]

    More likely that they sniff inevitable defeat, I would have thought, Rocket. If there was any chance of them getting close they would have preferred to have Labor out of those inner city seats.

  3. Rod 302

    I am, in the words of the Rutles, “stooned und shocked” – and I can’t believe if they’d already made this decision before the Burvale thing that Ted would not have shouted it from the rooftops. I’d say Adam Bandt won’t sleep quite as well tonight.

  4. BOP,

    It’s all over for the Greens if the Libs preference deal is true.

    They’ve had their minute in the sun. Now time to get behind the re election of our progressive Labor Government.

  5. [With the ALP putting the Greens before the DLP in Western Victoria, what chance do PBers think that Peter Kavanagh will be reelected?]


    The polls are also showing minor parties dropping in support. I am surprised they allowed the name Sex Party to be registered. You can not register GOD…

    A campaign for checks and balance in the upper house is the only option. The Greens and ALP in Southern metro hold around 46%-47%

    When they first introduced above the line I wrote a submission arguing that they allow preferencing above the line. In which case your vote would go down column 1 then column 2 etc. best option would be to up the nomination fee to over $1,000 and abolish ATL all together. ATL was only introduced to make it easier to count.

    I do not think below the line votes will make any difference in this election. 3% vote below the line and they tend to follow the main group ticket associated with their number one anyway. Just makes them feel good.

    If the Liberal Party orefernece the Greens last then Pike is back in contention. Losing her was not a big deal. But the Christian lobby will back her.

    Has anyone noticed any obvious dummy candidates. they should have run some in the upper-house. I guess Vern is a dummy canidate as is Fred Niles Group.Freds ticket is the same as the DLP.

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