Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49

GhostWhoVotes informs us a state Nielsen poll in The Age has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, and that the Greens primary vote is steady on 16 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: We now also have Newspoll which puts Labor’s lead at 51-49, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 5 per cent for the Nationals. The poll also shows a striking five point drop for the Greens to 14 per cent, which is coming off an all-time high and is not replicated in Nielsen. The two pollsters also give divergent impressions of John Brumby’s popularity: whereas Nielsen has his personal rating at plus 13 (approval 53 per cent, disapproval 40 per cent), Newspoll has it at minus six (42 per cent, 48 per cent). Newspoll also has Ted Baillieu at minus six (40 per cent, 46 per cent), while Nielsen has it at evens (45 per cent). Brumby has a slightly wider lead as preferred premier from Nielsen (53-37) than Newspoll (50-36). As was the case before the federal election, the Coalition’s supporters appear to be firmer in their intentions than Labor’s.

UPDATE 2: Full tables from the Nielsen poll here, courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

310 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49”

Comments Page 1 of 7
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  2. Not working for you is it GG

    All your effort and no one is listening, and your party is falling apart.

    While the Greens and Bob Brown ”the most trusted polatition in Australia” go from strength to strength.

    Your angry, ugly behaviour just looks sad.

    Anyhow maybe this will cheer you up,

    [In spite of the smear campaigns, people keep voting Green. So why are the media afraid to take the party and its policies seriously? ]

    http://newmatilda.com/2010/11/12/first-they-ignore-you

  5. marg

    You’ve given me a brilliant idea!

    Now armed with my updated 2010 list based on the preferences of the Reader’s Digest Subscribers I’m off on a recruiting drive for the Labor Party. I need people who are higher than Bob Brown on the list, and could be enticed into Parliament. Living in Victoria might help (for this election anyway).

    18. QE2 – but I think you can’t run if you hold an “office under the Crown” – probably includes being the Crown.

    23. Prince William – probably rules him out too

    24. Eric Bana – or is he still living in Hollywood?

    28. Jonathon Welch – now he’s the real deal – PING

    31. Tim Costello – ruled out politics years ago

    39. Rove McManus – brilliant Republican Party Strategist wasn’t he? – PING

    43. Sarah Murdoch – now there’s the way to get the press on-side – PING

    54. Jennifer Hawkins – will definitely get attention – PING

    61. Gerry Harvey – all that money could come in useful at campaign time – PING

    What a front bench then, and so popular!

  7. marg,

    Repeating your tawdry lies doesn’t make them true. It just makes you a repeating liar. You may think that posting links to Greens websites and pro Green writers somehow makes you a player. But, the reality is, you are a joke.

    Perhaps you should check with William as to his professional opinion of surveys where respondents choose themselves and where nutjobs like you draw totally spurious conclusions.

    Believe it or not, this site has readers who actually understand the notions of sampling, margin of error and all the tools needed and used by amateur psephologists.

    You should stop embarrasing yourself.

  8. [
    While the Greens and Bob Brown ”the most trusted polatition in Australia” go from strength to strength.
    ]

    I didn’t realise Bob “less trustworthy than Karl Stefanovic” Brown was running for the Victorian parliament

  10. Rupert emailed and asked why he didn’t make the cut.

    I had to tell him he was equal number 83 (with Matthew Johns and Joe Hockey!) but missed because he was below Bob Brown (and George Pell) – actually does he own that magazine, since surely he is also not Australian anyway?

  12. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, November 12, 2010 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Frdn,

    Conversely, the 84% that detest the Greens is steady too.]

    I suspect that there is a few percent in there that couldn’t care less and even more damaging for the major parties a large percentage that will probable one day vote green if the drift to the right by the majors continues.

  14. [So why are the media afraid to take the party and its policies seriously? ]

    This is a valid question. Why is it that the only media analysis we get of the Greens consists of hysterical OTT claims that seem more at home in the 1950s, not today? Why is the media not focusing on their policies, matching their public statements to their policies, and holding them to account for their promises, in much the same way the media does for other MPs?

    I’d love an answer.

  15. Fredn,

    Don’t get defensive.

    On these figures 6 out of 7 people think the Greens are a “crock”.

    Your dubious wishful thinking isn’t very convincing.

    Toughen up, comrade.

  18. 11

    Just because someone does not vote for a party does not mean they detest it. There are plenty of people who detest the Greens (yourself for example) but they are not 84% of the Victorian population. For starters the Greens polling has been as high as 19%.

  29. That Newspoll shows a sudden wind change for the Greens. Could mean the Libs will outpoll the libs in those inner suburban seats.

    Do I spy a pear being shaped for the Greens.

  32. 29

    The Greens got 10% at the last election and came second easily and the poll show 14% so they will not come third this time.

    Maybe some people have been scared off voting Green because they don`t understand preferential voting and think it could help elect Liberal MPs and thus a Liberal Government. The Greens could try adds to educate voters about preferential voting.

  35. 33

    So by your standards 63% of people detest the ALP and 56% of people detest the Coalition. Do you think that this is the case?

  36. More on the Nielsen

    [
    The poll shows Mr Brumby has a commanding 53 per cent to 37 per cent lead over Mr Baillieu as preferred premier.

    The Premier’s approval rating is 53 per cent, up two points on the previous Age/Nielsen poll taken two weeks ago. His disapproval rating is 40 per cent, down 1 point since the start of the campaign.

    Mr Baillieu’s approval rating is also up 2 points, to 45 per cent, and his disapproval rating is also down 1 point, to 45 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is 38 per cent – no change on two weeks earlier, but down from 43 per cent at the last election
    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-election-2010/coalition-closes-in-on-labor-20101112-17r8i.html

  37. 34

    I think the 19% included a protest factor. There was some quote somewhere of I think it was Greg Barber saying that the Greens would get more like 15%. The highest poll for the Greens before the last state election was 13.5% (in one Nielson) and they got 10%.

  40. [GaryPosted Saturday, November 13, 2010 at 12:10 am | PermalinkThese polls ring true. Labor will lose seats but retain government IMHO.
    ]

    And note they polled during the Nunawading Meeting which showed Brumby outclassing Baillieu.

  41. These polls seem to be pointing to the result I have been predicting and that beign a 4-8 seat Liberal gain from ALP and two maybe three seats from the ALP to the Greens.

    In many ways that election if the ALP do win with less than 50 seats will be a more traditional looking Victorian Labor Government.

    The Cain Government during the 1980s never won more than 50 seats

  43. 41

    Although there were only 81 seats in 1982 and I believe they were not one vote, one value so the 49 seats the ALP won would translate into over 50 seats today. They won Evelyn in 1982 they did not win it again until the 2002 landslide and lost again in 2006 and they won Sandringham in 1982 and not since.

    http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Government/EvelynDistrictProfile.html

    http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Government/SandringhamDistrictProfile.html

  44. There is something very very odd about this campaign. I have never seen the MSM less interested. For Example, the Herald Sun today has a Ben Cousins special on front page and inside. they have not tried to beat up the usual law and order issue. Does this reflect the very poor performance of the opposition, who has barely laid a glove in three terms?

  46. These polls are great news for the ALP. There is normally a swing back slightly to the government from here on. If people haven’t been convinced to change by now they won’t. I think Antony’s current calculations based on Nielsen will actually be the outcome. 5 to libs, 3 to the greens

  47. Andrew

    I too found it strange this morning that the Herald Sun did not have a front page re election.
    Having said that, The Age did have front page on it covering the Nielson Poll.

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