Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, this time combining results from two weekends of surveys to gain a sample of 1661, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, making the previous 55.5-44.5 look all the more like an aberration. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 43 per cent while the Coalition is up two to 40.5 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,972 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. [OK I will critique this. Its a load of bollocks that will attract single issue fanatics and eventually destroy Govt. – How’s that?]

    Pretty closed minded Ru. Single issue fanatics will have their say, but their ideas will not float to the top, because the mainstream thinkers will rate these ideas down if they become too prominent.

    Keep going though, it’s more productive than other cheap shots.

  2. 1. Hill signed the Kyoto Treaty but could never get it ratified, even though he said he would.
    2. Reith broke existing IR law in partnership with a minor waterfront company, he could have achieved the same result with legislation, but of course that was too hard. He then sold himself to the highest bidder and left politics in disgrace.
    3. Downer was an ineffective buffoon who did not recall what he had signed, when the going got tough he “cut and run”.
    4. Vaile was an ineffective trade minister who negotiated a free trade agreement with the US that screwed Australian farmers.

  3. blue_green 1841
    That’s a cop out.
    Just because it occurs does not mean we should ignore or condone it.
    This war has been based on lies, corruption & outright contempt for the world.
    Deal with it.
    Good onya Assange! 🙂

  4. Hill put through more reforms in the environment field than anyone else that has followed him.

    Most advocates who were around then still whistfully pine for someone of his calibre.

  5. b-g
    (1) The Iraq War is over, according to the allies. Ergo, the leaks are an argument about history. IMHO, we dig the grave of our civilization if we ignore the ugly truth that Assange has exposed to view.

    (2) Given what you have said, I ask this question of you: ‘If it comes to light that the Karzai Government is involved in any or all of the following, should the Australian Government pull out of Afghanistan?:

    a. systematic torture (that is, not ‘accidents’ or ‘random’ outbreaks by individuals, but systemic torture.
    b. targetted murders of political enemies
    c. systematic corruption on a grand scale
    d. systematic imprisonment in terrible conditions and without trial.

  6. BG

    [Geewiz was particularly benign today. What did he do to get chucked?]

    Bilbo yellow carded him the other day, told him no more of his comments about AS.

    Today he waded in boots and all re SA detention centre.

    Puff and he’s gone.

  7. [Dee
    Posted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 9:00 pm | Permalink
    blue_green 1841
    That’s a cop out.
    Just because it occurs does not mean we should ignore or condone it.
    This war has been based on lies, corruption & outright contempt for the world.
    Deal with it.
    Good onya Assange! ]

    I made two separate points. One: Assuange is publishing stuff that may put our soldiers at risk. If he just publishes incidence of US war crimes, then great. But operational minutae is not.

    I did not say we should neither ignore or condone the US stuff ups. What I did say however, was that, unless Australia has another country in mind to replace the US in the ANZUZ treaty, the alliance is the bedrock of the security of Oz for the next fifty years.

  8. [Keep going though, it’s more productive than other cheap shots.]

    Rad, you seem to be arguing that what the concensus wants is the best policy. This is often not the case. We need Govt to govern not listen to whatever floats to the top.

  9. Lord Mountbatten did say that scum always rises to the surface. Or that is what people say he said when he floated to the surface after HMS Kelly was sunk.

  10. On first think about the matter I believe Wikileak might have served a better purpose if it had concentrated its release on the torture etc documentation and any implicity of national leaders rather than a release everything approach.

    The way it has gone the impact of those serious revelations has been diluted in all the noise.

  11. Remember when the guy from The Lancet was dragged through the mire for questioning the number of deaths in Iraq? Maybe he is having a quiet chuckle today.

    Oh and who in Australia was leading the attack on him? Lord Dolly of Cyprus. 🙁

  12. [LaocoonPosted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 9:01 pm | PermalinkBK
    Is all quiet on the Inverbrackie front today?
    ]

    Ch 7 Perth reported that the Northam protest only attracted 100 people.

    Judi Moylan and Colin Barnett wisely stayed away 🙂

  13. Ru – What will float to the top is consensus. I am not saying that the policies are dictated by what floats to the top, but “representatives” would ignore consensus at their peril.

    Are you endorsing a dictatorship?

  14. Boerwar@1843

    If you guys are right no Coalition minister could ever be competent, by definition. IMHO, this is not a credible position to take.

    BW, I thought when you first posted on this matter you were taking the piss,
    really.

    Of course coalition ministers can be competent. You have just pick a
    particularly poor sample, viz –

    Hill – total ideologue, but has done so much better since leaving parliament.
    Kemp – again total ideologue. Just what is it he was competent at. Examples ?
    Downer – To claim he was competent at anything in a HUGE stretch. What ?
    Reith – Attack dogs n thugs at midnight. Now selling armaments. No thanks.
    Vaile – If you was a Lib you would never have heard or seen him. Competent,
    sorry cannot agree.

    There are a range of *howards* ministers where they are demonstrably
    *incompetent* as shown by the very high rate of sacking by howard and later
    his refusal to sack ministers for reasons that that were on a par or worse than
    previous instances where he HAD sacked ministers ??

  15. [But I don’t see New Zealand as the Nelson Muntz-like charecter that can come to our rescue if the sh-t hits the fan.]

    I don’t know about that. I reckon a good, savage Haka could be as effective as Bush’s “Shock & Awe” in Iraq.

    Blowing up scores of empty buildings didn’t look like the most effective use of expensive munitions to me.

    A good old fashioned Hake would have probably put the its up the Iraqies just as effectively or more so! 😉

  16. [BK

    Is all quiet on the Inverbrackie front today?]
    Laocoon
    I drove through Woodside a few times yesterday. No signs of placards or other forms of protest.

  17. Kelly and Franklin were implying that if things continue to deteriorate in Afghanistan it will become a serious test for Gillard?

    The only ones to blame over the war are Bush and his bestest buddy Howard? It’s now left to Obama and their allies to solve the mess.

  18. [And as for aligning ourselves with torturers; find me a country that we can align ourselves with who hasn’t overstepped the mark then I will advocate for us to align with them. But I don’t see New Zealand as the Nelson Muntz-like charecter that can come to our rescue if the sh-t hits the fan.]
    Your words blue_green.
    Sounds like excuses. Bit like, everyone does it………..
    As Boerwar has pointed out. These documents relate to a war that has passed. Documents don’t apply to present day operations.

  19. [I can see that I am not going to be able to develop a consensus on PB on the competent ministers issue.]

    Not on the ones you put forward.

  20. Boerwar,

    I have heard all the reasons why we went to Afghanistan and I have not amongst them found a compelling reason other than ‘we need to pay a tribute to the US for our ongoing security’.

    In my mind, the benefits are largely around this; The US see us as our firmest ally. So when we need help at some time in the future, some powerful Senator or Congressman walks into the Capitol Building and argues that the US can never abandon Australia and should act regardless of the cost of money and lives to the them.

    Another incedental ‘for’ is that it hardens up our armed forces- keeps them sharp and helps them with interoperability between forces. It does not let us descend into a soft and flabby peacekeeping forces. However, you do not go to war for practice.

    The ‘against’ is that Australia is not the bloody Himalayas. To defend Australia we don’t need to fight a counter insurgency in dry, wintry mountainous terrain. So the big risk is that we redesign and retrain our armed forces to fight the next Afghanistan. When we really need to be working toward a stronger naval/air forces defensive posture.

  21. Boerwar@1863

    Lord Mountbatten did say that scum always rises to the surface. Or that is what people say he said when he floated to the surface after HMS Kelly was sunk.

    Actually it was the other was around – a cockney sailor made that comment
    to Mountbatten as he can up for air – at least in the movie of it I first saw
    as a kid. I remember that particular scene well.

  22. thanks Frank (the ABC Sydney news showed only a very small “crowd” indeed) and BK (media circus moved on?…you must be so pleased Jamie Briggs is the local member!)

  23. [I can see that I am not going to be able to develop a consensus on PB]

    That’s the beauty of PB. No consensus on anything. every dog eats its own vomit 😛

  24. Hans Blix, Wilkie… the bastardization of those who were addicted to the truth rather than to lies.

    Assange already fitted up for a fake rape charge. Will they get him, one way or another?

    We need to honour these rare individuals. We need to do it not by going along with spurious attacks on Wikileaks. We need to do it with profound gratitude that there are a few brave men prepared to risk all to bring the truth to us.

    With so many prepared to lie, to dissemble, to stay silent, our democracy needs the few good men very badly.

    The Gillard Government has bodgied up an enquiry into the Wikileaks. Internal. Safe. Cowardly. We don’t need to accept alliances with governments who torture and murder as if it is normal and moral. How did we get there? Why aren’t we outraged?

    It is clear that there needs to be a Royal Commission into the Iraq War.

  25. [David
    Posted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 9:03 pm | Permalink
    Blue green you are being fanatical and appear to have over dosed. Calm down.]

    Only on PB does a centrist perspective become fanatical. 🙂

  26. Boerwar@1874

    I can see that I am not going to be able to develop a consensus on PB on the competent ministers issue.

    BW – clearly there were but for the life of me, you quote very poor examples,
    in my view anyway.

    I shall think about what good examples there are and report back.

    Probably the best example is howard himself. As much as I hate to
    admit it. Without him, no way would they have lastest 12 years.

    Howard may well be seeing that same *characteristic* in turnbull ??

  27. [and BK (media circus moved on?…you must be so pleased Jamie Briggs is the local member!]
    Laocoon
    Highly privileged, ecstatic, overcome with joy, overwhelmed . . . . .

  28. [The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 9:20 pm | Permalink
    errrr, btw who is going to invade Australia?

    Our cuzzs across the Tasman?]

    Well they are a warrior nation.

  29. I find the putting down of New Zealand either in jocular fashion or otherwise, when it comes to security, unacceptable. The Kiwis have never ever been found wanting joining Australia as mates. It is in bad taste. Lets keep the inter country battles on the sports fields. NZ’s are very good friends.

  30. Boerwar

    [I can see that I am not going to be able to develop a consensus on PB on the competent ministers issue.]

    Concensus; One mans treasure is another mans trash.

  31. Onya Gusface
    Glad you ripped shirl the girl a new one now he can wear it as a hat on that big vaccous head of his,he is about as bright as a half watt osram light globe i doubt if he has ever had an original thought of his own as he seems to be chanting the same slogans as the lieberal hacks.Also on the subject of wingnutts demise i really believe its inevitable and will come by the end of the year early next year by one of about five players of which i think now turnballs will be the front runner.

  32. [Nope. That is why we have regular elections.]

    So for all the criticism of the media, you are happy with the status quo?

    Might I remind you that Faulkner, Fraser and others are not happy with the marginal seat focus group mentality that has such a big influence on policy these days.

    Intelligent readers and thinkers would be the sources and supporters of good ideas.

    This is the opportunity for good leadership supported by consensus to take its rightful place.

  33. 1893

    Yes NZ certainly punch above their weight – perhaps more so than Australia, as much as we hate to admit it.

    As many of the Iraq and Afghanistan war critics point out, they are not in our region. What is our region? The South Pacific – and New Zealand is an important player there and helps us (by helping the region) while we’re busy in the middle east…

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