Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, this time combining results from two weekends of surveys to gain a sample of 1661, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, making the previous 55.5-44.5 look all the more like an aberration. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 43 per cent while the Coalition is up two to 40.5 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,972 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Dio, thanks for the tip. I had seen that page, not really that ueeful but thanks anyway.

    Laocoon, Campbell Report, sounds like a good place to start. Thank you.

  2. Thanks blue-green.

    The big issues from Wikileaks for me have been the details of systematic abuse by soldiers, ostensibly under the noses of US (and Australian?) forces, and the attempts by Iran to try and bust the fledgling Iraqi democracy – altho I’m sure this isn’t a shock to anyone.

    I am convinced that unearthing the bigger picture atrocities justifies the “small operational stuff” that came out too.

  3. I suppose that the Nielsen poll is saying around about what they are all saying – neck and neck and no trend.

    It will be interesting to see what Nielsen does to Abbott’s figures.

  4. [It has therefore done the sensible thing and specialized in certain strategic ways.]

    at a given signal a flock of seemingly docile sheep can turn into one of the most ruthless and savage killers ever seen

    and there are millions of em – some closer than you think

    you have been warned


  5. Dave, Trevor Sykes, great lead. I’ve got one of his, Bold Riders, read a fair amount of it too! Thanks, those titles sound promising indeed.

  6. Diogs,

    Bart has the Melbourne Cup surrounded with Faint Perfume, Precedence, So you Think and Dariana.

    So you Think is an extraordinary horse and despite never having run beyond 2040 metres in a race, wh is to say he won’t win.

  7. [I agree totally. Let voters find out what abbott and the sewer rats are really
    all about.]

    Nostalgic for the Howard era already?

  8. Gillard was telling the truth. we will be there for a long long time.

    It’s alright, Ma, we will there for Obama.

    [South Asia, Oct 23, 2010 – US dug in for long haul in Afghanistan, By Nick Turse

    Some go by names steeped in military tradition like Leatherneck and Geronimo. Many sound fake-tough, like Ramrod, Lightning, Cobra, and Wolverine. Some display a local flavor, like Orgun-E, Howz-e-Madad, and Kunduz. All, however, have one thing in common: they are US and allied forward operating bases, also known as FOBs.

    They are part of a base-building surge that has left the countryside of Afghanistan dotted with military posts, themselves expanding all the time, despite the drawdown of forces promised by President Barack Obama beginning in July 2011.

    The US military does not count the exact number of FOBs it has built in Afghanistan, but forward operating bases and other facilities of similar or smaller size make up the bulk of US outposts there]

  9. GG

    Actually I think there is a bit of racism and dolphinism about Taiji.

    There seems to be something special about the inhumane killing of dolphins when we happily kill other (admittedly less cute and intelligent) animals. And I think there is a strong anti-Japanese sentiment which is a bit ugly.

  10. Problem is the ignorant could endure joblessness and homelessness and still love the Abbott nightmare because he scapegoats the things they hate. ie. people who look different, act different and speak different.

    They do this country very proud, and are becoming more and more abundant every year.

  11. I can’t remember the last time a horse has won two Cox Plates from 10 starts. To follow up with the Melbourne Cup would indeed make So You Think a modern day Phar Lap, although Makybe Diva did it.

  12. [And I think there is a strong anti-Japanese sentiment which is a bit ugly.]

    Diog, tell that to the Chinese:

    [China scholars enter Okinawa fray, By Kosuke Takahashi

    TOKYO – To much of the world, the Japanese island of Okinawa is synonymous with vast United States military bases and the troubled relationship between servicemen and locals who want the Americans out. In recent years, however, the specter of anti-Chinese sentiment is also in the air.

    Powerful Chinese interests now laying claim to sovereignty of the Okanawa islands – which is located halfway between Kyushu and Taiwan – may increase the antagonism over the disputed Senkaku Islands (known by China as the Diaoyu Islands), which are also administered as part of Okinawa prefecture.

    Anti-Chinese sentiment in Japan is high after Beijing’s recent display of territorial belligerence over the sovereignty of the islands in the East China Sea spooked Tokyo. Neighboring nations, especially South Korea and Vietnam – once China’s tribute states – have already been made to feel more nervous in their disputes with China over island territories. This is because Beijing has expressed Asian waters as a “core interest” to counter United States moves to gain more influence in the region as a counter to China’s rise. China’s claims of primacy over the sovereignty of its near waters are encouraging increased discussion among its neighbors regarding naval collaboration. ]

  13. [Problem is the ignorant could endure joblessness and homelessness and still love the Abbott nightmare because he scapegoats the things they hate. ie. people who look different, act different and speak different.]

    Demonization of a particular group of the day is unfortunately a very effective electoral tactic.

  14. Diogs,

    That is the tantalising thing about SYT. It is a relatively inexperienced horse and even watching the run yesterday, it was like a big kid just bouncing along for the fun of it. The horses he beat were no mugs. Most observers see that it hasn’t shown it’s absolute best yet.

    Bart will run him in the mcKinnon stakes on Derby Day to get a bit for dourness into him.

    If he stays the 2 miles, he’ll win the Melbourne Cup on his ear.

  15. Would not the next Essential and Newspoll give a better idea as to what effect the events of last week have had on voters rather than this “once off ” Nielsen ? By once off I mean first since the election.

    Once again no idea just asking the question.

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