The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, this time combining results from two weekends of surveys to gain a sample of 1661, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, making the previous 55.5-44.5 look all the more like an aberration. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 43 per cent while the Coalition is up two to 40.5 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent.
Er Billbo the link in the last thread goes to Morgan.
[Don’t waste your considerable talent on WeeJism.
Sorry. I keep forgetting!]
Pebbs
It’s very hard to do, but I have succumbed twice in recent days.
FFS! Stop the face to face polls! 😆
Predicted response:
“Well we all know that ftf polls are biased towards Labor. If we subtract (insert arbitrary number here) the results are more likely (an arbitrary number that is, ironically, skewed itself)”
Are Morgan FTF polls an indicator of anything?
4: Not really. Even Morgan himself has discredited them.
This means that the Victorian thread is second last on the main page now.
I hope there is another Victorian Poll soon.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/7147/
Uhlmann sensibly asked Briggs if he had done anything to calm the meeting down. Answer wtte I’m keeping the pressure o the labor govt. No brains! Rat!
Briggs is using the process as the problem with the Inverbrackie announcement.
Totally disingenous. He is pandering to the fools who rocked up to the meeting. Some lovely types featured at the start of the program I must say. I wouldn’t like THEM for a neighbour.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/brough-backs-costello-20101022-16xlr.html
[Are Morgan FTF polls an indicator of anything?]
Time for a new thread?
[Er Billbo the link in the last thread goes to Morgan.]
Fixed.
[Are Morgan FTF polls an indicator of anything?]
I tend to think they’re reasonably useful once you’ve added the requisite 3 to 4 per cent discount to the Labor vote.
i suppose poor willam just got thous., emails we are on the ball this end
I’m sorry GeeWizz but you win, I am going to take a break and hope you disappear. There are many opinions expressed here and not just “lefties” but it is usually with civility and humour. I see spite and spittle from your provocations. Your venom will poison you and I am sorry to see it. You must be hurting to be continually pouring forth invective. I enjoy dialogue with those who disagree with me but dialogue means I get a turn. Please stop, look in the mirror and consider what would you do in their situation and what would you think if people treated you the way your suggesting we treat them. Please for your own sake stop and reflect on where you are heading.
Dong
It would be an interesting thing to watch if WeeJism and the Indi puff adder bit each other.
Who would survive?
I hate this equation. Are Aussies are stupid as this?
Refugees= boaties = queue jumpers = Muslims = terrorists.
This must hurt those whose relatives were refugees so much.
I have Muslim relatives who are well-educated, peace-loving, born here.
What is WRONG with everyone?
Where is the leadership?
[I tend to think they’re reasonably useful once you’ve added the requisite 3 to 4 per cent discount to the Labor vote.]
The fascinating thing is how uniform all the polls are once the regular adjustment is instituted! Taking Newspoll as the base, as most incl me usually do, which is 50:50, Essential is 50-51 and now Morgan F2F is 54- all of which is 50:50 (subtract 1 from Essential and 3 or 4 from Morgan F2F). Once we see the Morgan Telephone at 52:48 it will be complete!
The adjustments are usually correct +- 1% in my experience, but all the polls since election have been remarkably stable, and somewhat lower than expected for the ALP TPP IMO, based on the usual incumbency bounce.
[Time for a new thread?]
Yes, what are your tea leaves reading?
[Who would survive?]
I suggest good taste wouldnt
BK what is the population of your area , i suppose its a hard one as we would be talking about adults, thats gives an idea if 500 adults to a meeting is the whole community.
I would think there may be others who would of been encouraged to come from other areas.
[What is WRONG with everyone?
Where is the leadership?]
Well it’s nowhere to be seen in Mayo, lizzie.
[I hate this equation. Are Aussies are stupid as this?]
I have to keep asking this, why aren’t these detention centres being built in Labor electorates?
Is it sheer coincidence, or is Labor running scared of the voters?
BK,
Would it be too much to ask that it be a mutual termination?
[Are Morgan FTF polls an indicator of anything?]
No polls are at this point. The next election is still just under three years away. Anything could happen. Even if a ftf poll, this most likely aids the ALP, as it gives the illusion of them breaking through.
It’s most likely we are still at the 50-50 mark. However, where we’ll be at in August-October 2013 is anybody’s guess at this point. We can’t even guarantee leadership at this point.
Dong at 13 said about WeeJism;
[and what would you think if people treated you the way your suggesting we treat them]
I’m with you Dong but I think I spot a key proble with your question. It presumes WeeJism ‘thinks’.
All the evidence here so far suggests the opposite I reckon.
proble = problem
Mod Lib said
[The adjustments are usually correct +- 1% in my experience, but all the polls since election have been remarkably stable, and somewhat lower than expected for the ALP TPP IMO, based on the usual incumbency bounce.]
may be the public cannot come to grips with a min,. government and for the time being are wondering how it works .
BK
That’s right. Briggs could have taken a statesmanlike approach and tried to calm the meeting, but instead made the cheap political point and vowed to support the twits.
[I have to keep asking this, why aren’t these detention centres being built in Labor electorates?
Is it sheer coincidence, or is Labor running scared of the voters?]
Ever consider that it’s because sparsely populated areas that are perfect for a detention centre are also safe Liberal seats?
Would you have them build a detention centre for desperate and possibly dangerous in the middle of a densely populated area?
Think before you type.
[BK what is the population of your area , i suppose its a hard one as we would be talking about adults, thats gives an idea if 500 adults to a meeting is the whole community.]
my say
I can’t tell you precisely what the population is but 500 turning up represents a sizable proportion.
It’s a worry!
I just looked it up – there were 1826 at Woodside in the 2006 census. I reckon you could add another 1000 for surrounding townships.
WeeJism at 21 said;
[I have to keep asking this]
No you dont actually. You could check out the stuck needle on the record instead. A far better use of your time really.
[Think before you type.]
Can’t be done. See my post at 24. This is WeeJism we are talking about ater all.
I agree with Dong
[There are many opinions expressed here and not just “lefties” but it is usually with civility and humour.]
When arrogant twerps like the nameless one are on here, it all deteriorates. I think I’ll preserve my sanity by logging off for a while.
[ We can’t even guarantee leadership at this point.]
after what happened with Mr.Rudd, i suppose one cannot say this but i do think Julia will be here for the long haul.
Hockey now seems to have done his dash re the bank policy or do others think this has not hurt him for the opp. leadership but he looks quite fed up to me.
And Malcolm still looks like he is sitting in a board room at qt, I wonder if he wished he had kept with his first decision.
BK
Do you have an idea of the demographics of the people who live in this area?
[The adjustments are usually correct +- 1% in my experience, but all the polls since election have been remarkably stable, and somewhat lower than expected for the ALP TPP IMO, based on the usual incumbency bounce.]
What bounce?
Labors Flatlined and I can only see their numbers going down from here.
Howard had not 1 single election win where his numbers didn’t go into the mid to high 50% range directly after the election. This government meanwhile sits on a 50-50 margin and hasn’t moved for months now.
I can only see these numbers getting worse when the government is stiffled doing anything because of their bastard Greens-Rural Independents-Labor son alliance of a government.
I tested the Australian’s costings for Cat6 cabling today, something I had been considering doing anyway but they made me commit to it on impulse.
8 port patch panel, with cables to 6 rooms each with their own wall plate. $360.
This is for a brick vaneer house with easy access to the roof space. So that equates to $60 per connection. This was not the cheapest quote, nor the most expensive but it is the ballpark for a reputable company.
Now I will be NBN ready, as of next Wednesday. Pull your finger out Conroy I want my 1gig. 🙂
[What bounce?
Labors Flatlined and I can only see their numbers going down from here.
Howard had not 1 single election win where his numbers didn’t go into the mid to high 50% range directly after the election. This government meanwhile sits on a 50-50 margin and hasn’t moved for months now.
I can only see these numbers getting worse when the government is stiffled doing anything because of their bastard Greens-Rural Independents-Labor son alliance of a government.]
What were you saying just a few minutes ago about tea leaf reading?
Gee Wizz [No but I come from a defence force town so I have a bit of an idea on what the troops want and thats to stay and keep the Taliban at bay]
Dong[Please stop, look in the mirror and consider what would you do in their situation… ]
Gee Wizz, do you see the inherent contradiction in your positions?
You think we should be in Afghanistan to keep the Taliban at bay, but you are hostile to the people that are fleeing the Taliban and seeking refuge from their terror.
[Pull your finger out Conroy I want my 1gig.]
Yes. There are new episodes of Dexter that I have to download! 😆
What I find absolutely disgraceful is the calls of “racists” and “rednecks” because once again… for about the 5th time now, Labor has opened a detention centre not in their backyards, but in the backyards of Safe Liberal seats.
Stick these detention centres in safe Labor and Labor marginals, afterall these are the people that have voted for this sort of solution.
The people of Adelaide Hills voted for the Nauru solution, not the park em out the back solution. Thats something the left want, and the left should get.
And don’t tell me there isn’t room in the ACT, Sydney, Melbourne or Hobart for them. Thats where the services are, thats where the people should be.
mod lib @16,
With the leader focused election campaigns we now have do you think any incumbency factor has more to do with the party or the PM?
With the rapid turnaround between Julia becoming PM and the election perhaps there is no incumbency factor.
[say
I can’t tell you precisely what the population is but 500 turning up represents a sizable proportion.]
thats rather dissapointing but then again who knows they may have come from anywhere.
i wish i could meet them and tell them about the Kosovo people, they where mostly Muslim but they didnt wear headscarf and those that did just wore them like the polish ladies did in the 50.s. I wonder if that made a difference to some people here,
who knows but then this was before 9/11,
but the people here welcomed the 400 we had with open arms as i said the other day, we visited and they put on cultural meals and songs ect many friendships where made and people protested when howard sent them back.
Well know people in the area that helped them have since travelled to Kosovar to visit.
I wish more Libs were like Mod Lib and Glen.
While there’d still be fiery debates and opposition, it would be more tolerable if their side takes government.
[You think we should be in Afghanistan to keep the Taliban at bay, but you are hostile to the people that are fleeing the Taliban and seeking refuge from their terror.]
If the Taliban were in Australia i’d be fighting, not fleeing.
No contradiction at all in my views. We can’t stay there and fight for them forever, at some point the Afghan people will need to fight for themselves.
the center here of the safe haven as we called was in the seat of Lyons Dick Adams
truthy
[What I find absolutely disgraceful is the calls of “racists” and “rednecks”]
If the shoe fits…
oh, and add stupid.
[If the Taliban were in Australia i’d be fighting, not fleeing.]
Rubbish. You’d sell the country out the first minute you could, if it meant saving your behind. I know your type.
Why are the people of Adelaide Hills racist for not accepting something Labor refuses to put into Labor seats?
Are Labor seats too racist for these people?
[ruawake
Posted Friday, October 22, 2010 at 5:55 pm | Permalink
I tested the Australian’s costings for Cat6 cabling today, something I had been considering doing anyway but they made me commit to it on impulse.]
did any one on the mainland ( big island) get a letter from telstra to day to tell us some charges are rising.
ruawake,
I reckon there should be a website you can sign up for the NBN now. That way they can go where most demand is. I know I would signup in a heartbeat.