Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, this time combining results from two weekends of surveys to gain a sample of 1661, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, making the previous 55.5-44.5 look all the more like an aberration. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 43 per cent while the Coalition is up two to 40.5 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,972 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. i blame Bilbo for banning toothy. there was a common enemy.

    Now PB is like IRAQ, broken, mate against mate, friend against friend, enemy against enemy. you no longer know who is your friend or foe, except Diog of course.

    Bilbo, you are like GW Bush, a nation buster.

  2. blue-green:

    When you say the Wikileaks could endanger our troops, I’m not sure what you mean. In what way do you see this happening?

  3. b-g

    I had thought that the Swedes had dropped the investigation for lack of anything to go by. Have just checked and they have opened another investigation into a different matter. So, I am OK to go with he is being investigated.

    But, but, but…in that game, honey traps being what they are, it can be very, very difficult to sort truth from fiction.

  4. Re Afghanistan,
    It is really sad when people I went to Uni with 25 years ago and have travelled the ALP path, say through Gritted teeth that they are sick to death of the whole Afghanistan thing but they must toe the party line.
    No good things can come form bad acts. We are deminished for having followed Bush and his wing nuts into the whole debacle.
    Support of the Taliban against Russia,
    Support of corruption and the now reemergence of the Taliban as possible partners, OMG.
    Drug cartels and poppies everywhere, misery, blood shed.
    Get out, get out. As Leonard Cohen sings,. ‘There is no good place to stand in a massacre.’
    Pity the children, pity the women, and pity the men, and pity us and our children for these two obominaitons the Iraq and Afghanistan invasions.

  5. blue_green
    [While the rape claim has been dismissed by authorities, that of sexual assault is still being investigated — even though the accuser said she gave her statement “as a support statement” to the other woman’s story.

    Swedish authorities are thought to have become suspicious on Saturday morning when it became clear that the anonymous allegations had been made first to tabloid newspapers and only later to police.]

  9. Finns et al

    So even if someone bizarrely decides to opt out of having FTTH when the NBN is rolled out, they should still be able to get good wireless broadband from the FTTN bit combined with wireless?

  10. [David
    Posted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 9:23 pm | Permalink
    I find the putting down of New Zealand either in jocular fashion or otherwise, when it comes to security, unacceptable. The Kiwis have never ever been found wanting joining Australia as mates. It is in bad taste. Lets keep the inter country battles on the sports fields. NZ’s are very good friends.]

    I never make fun of NZ, its just they have deliberately unarmed themselves and have one of the smallest military armed forces for a developed nation given its GDP. It even has is own moniker for a neutral, unarmed posture- ‘The New Zealand Strategy”

  13. BW – as I said – the *star* is howard himself. Without him there would
    be no 12 years. Not saying I agree with him, just saying it as it is.

    Will give so thought about the rest.

  15. Darren Laver FYI.

    Presidential Unit Citation

    In December 2004, the United States Navy Presidential Unit Citation was awarded to those units that comprised the Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-SOUTH/Task Force K-BAR between 17 October 2001 and 30 March 2002 for “extraordinary heroism” in action. One of these units was the Special Air Service of New Zealand.[9]

    The citation said SAS units helped “neutralise” Taliban and al Qaeda in “extremely high risk missions, including search and rescue, special reconnaissance, sensitive site exploitation, direct action missions, destruction of multiple cave and tunnel complexes, identification and destruction of several known al Qaeda training camps, explosions of thousands of pounds of enemy ordnance.”

    “They established benchmark standards of professionalism, tenacity, courage, tactical brilliance and operational excellence while demonstrating superb esprit de corps and maintaining the highest measures of combat readiness.”
    [edit] Victoria Cross

    It was announced on 2 July 2007 that Corporal Willie Apiata of the NZ SAS, aged 35, had been awarded the Victoria Cross for New Zealand for carrying a severely injured comrade 70 metres “under heavy fire” from machine-guns and grenades after their vehicle was destroyed in an ambush and then joined the rest of his comrades in a counter-attack.

    The announcement was unusual, because the NZ SAS is a very secretive organisation that almost never reveals the names of its members. Prime Minister Helen Clark said Apiata’s name was revealed because it was only the 14th time since World War 2 that the Victoria Cross had been awarded among the 53 nations of the Commonwealth, and the first to a serving SAS soldier anywhere, and it would be almost impossible to keep secret. In addition to Cpl. Apiata, three other SAS soldiers were decorated for actions during the same mission.[citation needed]

    In April 2008, Apiata donated his Victoria Cross medal to the NZSAS Trust, so that “The medal is protected for future generations”. The medal remains available to Apiata and his family to wear.[10]
    [edit] Afghanistan 2009–2011

    71 NZSAS troops returned for a fourth deployment in 2009.[11] These troops arrived in September in Afghanistan, and their location was revealed in the Norwegian press.[12] New Zealand would provide three rotations of SAS troops in 2009–2011. This is the fourth SAS deployment to Afghanistan, the last being in 2005.[13] A small number of NZSAS personnel were among the forces which responded to the January 2010 attack in central Kabul.[14]

  16. [A Walkley Award

    In the true spirit of PB, i hereby christen it the Wangkley Award.]

    I think it should be broadened to include pollies. John Howard would be a shoe-in for the Shane Wangkley Award for bowling, and Cossie for the Wee Willie Wangkley Award for snoozing.

  19. Nielsen:

    [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LNP 51 #auspol
    1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

    [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 34 LNP 43 GRN 14 #auspol
    1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  20. Hi PBers,

    With your indulgence I have a favour to ask. Are there any financial historians on here that could direct me to a text, list or resource of any description the chronicles the rise and fall of the different banks and building societies that have shaped the Australian banking industry. Interested in the different manifestations of competition in the retail sector.

    Apologies for being way off topic but there is such a wealth of knowledge on here I thought it would be a good place to look.

    Thanks.

  21. [GhostWhoVotes #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LNP 51 #auspol
    half a minute ago via web]
    And the Libs have done SO, SO well of late!

  22. [So even if someone bizarrely decides to opt out of having FTTH when the NBN is rolled out, they should still be able to get good wireless broadband from the FTTN bit combined with wireless?]

    Diog, can you please not ask the question in medical jargon. try to ask the question in simple english.

  26. [Finns, If PB is Iraq, who are the Turds, The Shiites and the Sunnies?

    Name names!]

    Gee GG, do i have to? Ok, i have to:

    Diog, Diog and Diog.

  27. Just be careful Dee, with an avatar like that, you could be tempted to join the Dark Side!

    Has anybody heard that apparently in Howard’s 700 page book he reckons Rudd would have won the election easily? That says a lot for Abbott!

  29. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 9:28 pm | Permalink
    blue-green:

    When you say the Wikileaks could endanger our troops, I’m not sure what you mean. In what way do you see this happening?]

    Small operational stuff, like how long it takes to respond to an incident, who they send, how they get there, how many people they send etc etc.

    The Wikileaks might have had stuff on torture but the whole lot is just a military data dump. I would be surprised if it wasn’t illegal. Its not whistlblowing because there is no focus to the whistling.

  33. blue_green FYI

    NZ have an army. They have not unarmed themselves. Where did you get that idea from?
    If you mean they do not spend billions of dollars on defence, yes. NZ is a country of 4 million , how large do you suggest their defence force should be, given the adult male population is less than a 3rd of 4 million. You want 50 + yr olds deployed to Afghanistan/
    Leave it while you are way behind.

  35. Centre
    [Just be careful Dee, with an avatar like that, you could be tempted to join the Dark Side!]
    Not a chance in hell! 😀
    Just hung around after that polling post.
    [Has anybody heard that apparently in Howard’s 700 page book he reckons Rudd would have won the election easily? That says a lot for Abbott!]
    Yep! He said Rudd would have had a clear & concise win.
    Going nigh, nigh! 🙂

  36. geezlouise

    Another source to investigate would be the Campbell Committee report from the early 1980s, but it should be accessable at some government website. It might cover off the whole bank vs NBFI background as well (regulatory perspective)

  38. Nielsen, 51/49 to Coalition.

    Who cares? It’s early days! Where was So You Think in the early stages yesterday? It doesn’t mean a thing!

  40. Regarding Howard ministers, I’ve said this before: Macfarlane was alright (bearing in mind that he had a very good Chief of Staff in Steve Galilee, who is now Abbott’s Chief of Staff I think), and Amanda Vanstone was good for a laugh. I can’t think of one single other Howard minister who was any good, not one. Boerwar – your suggestions were amongst the worst of a bad lot.

  41. geezlouise went –

    Are there any financial historians on here that could direct me to a text, list or resource of any description the chronicles the rise and fall of the different banks and building societies that have shaped the Australian banking industry.

    Interested in the different manifestations of competition in the retail sector.

    Trevor Sykes is your man. He wrote –

    *Two Centuries of Panic* – History of Corporate Collapses in Australia.

    *The Bold Riders* – Behind Australia’s Corporate Collapses – ie the 1980’s

    *Six Months of Panic* – Just released about the GFC.

    The first two books you may find cheap now in book exchanges etc but great stuff 🙂

  43. NZ has decided that it will never have to fight a war by itself which is a good bet.

    It has therefore done the sensible thing and specialized in certain strategic ways.

  45. [NZ has decided that it will never have to fight a war by itself which is a good bet.

    It has therefore done the sensible thing and specialized in certain strategic ways.]

    BW, like Netball?

  47. S

    Vanstone used to have a novel tucked in amongst her briefing papers during senate estimates; and she used to read them.

    We will have to agree to differ.

  50. To Speak of Pebbles@1924

    I think this country deserves Abbott. I hope he wins big next election just so the useless bogans can have something genuine to complain about!

    I agree totally. Let voters find out what abbott and the sewer rats are really
    all about.

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