Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [Whats the precedent for Australian troops under an Australian government being charged with war crimes?

    Apparantly it took a Green/Labor alliance government for it to happen.

    This is simply unheard of, and it wouldn’t have happened under a Howard Government with pressure from the government to drop the case.]

    Apparently all the military courts martial records are held in the national archives.

    Have a look for yourself.

    http://recordsearch.naa.gov.au/SearchNRetrieve/Interface/ListingReports/ItemsListing.aspx

  2. my say@3275

    give us a sence of just how far away the center is from the POSH parts of the Adelaide hills.

    I am the POSH part of the Hills 😉 and I keep as far away from the riff raff as possible.

    Especially, racist, bigoted rif raff that attends meetings to whine about refugees. If they were Pommies escaping the Torie they’d be welcomed with open arms.

    BTW-the Woodside Army Camp housed refugees after WW2. I’m told by old-timers that no one minded then. But of course those refugees were white and at least nominally Christian.

  3. [nor is Barnaby the right person to articulate their plan on the…

    *Laocoon wonders on what he might be articulate*]
    All he is capble of is providing comedy relief (a la Gabby Hayes, Pancho, etc).

  4. Laocoon

    Not only did Howard rip the funding out of the overseas broadcaster, but from memory he sold the network to a christian group.

  5. [ Does it have those cutout foldups that pop up when you turn the pages? ]

    Yes, the one with Saddam Hussein coming out of a hole is my favourite.

    Also look out for the “Where’s Wally” section in Iraq. Instead of Wally, you have to find WMDs. This one’s a real challenge…. I’m still looking.

  6. [BTW-the Woodside Army Camp housed refugees after WW2. I’m told by old-timers that no one minded then. But of course those refugees were white and at least nominally Christian.
    ]

    If only the reffos would convert to christianity then they would get Bernardi marching in the street to help them.

  7. Gee wizz

    [Thats okay, they could go to one of the many hundreds of U.N refugee camps or one of the many hundreds of Australian Embassy’s dotted around the world and put their asylum applications in there and wait in line, as tens of thousands of others have done over the last 10 years rather than jumping the queue on the next leaky boat out.]

    I know I shouldn’t but a number of facts

    1. The queue if it exists is 135 years long if you divide refugees seeking asylum by refugee uptake by all countries combined.

    2. A total of 25,000 boats people have come in since 1976 as opposed to 3.5 million immigrants.

    And a question for the oracle – what were the pull factors that led to the ‘failure’ by Howard to control our borders in 1999 -2001 (11,000 of the 25,000 came in this three years alone) after Labor’s successful ‘defence’ of our borders in the years preceding handover to the boat smuggler’s friends the 1996 coalition?

  8. fizz wizz

    [they could go to one of the many hundreds of U.N refugee camps]

    Why is it OK for poor countries to house refugee camps but not Australia? i’ve never understood that.

  9. Wow, they’re all dog-piling on Cossie now…

    [http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/8179707/costello-never-had-balls-to-challenge/ ]

  10. lizzie
    [Not only did Howard rip the funding out of the overseas broadcaster, but from memory he sold the network to a christian group.]
    Gosh!? Bet that is really effective in Indonesia, Malaysia etc etc

    Did Rudd restore the situation?

  11. The number of Vietnamese who arrived here by boat was indeed, fairly low, Whizzer.

    This was partly because a system of processing very similar to that suggested by Labor at the last election was reasonably quickly put in place, and partly because the US (and other countries) were prepared to accept far more Vietnamese refugees than they are from areas where they are involved in other conflicts today. Through these processes Australia took in over 150,000 Vietnamese refugees – around 55,000 as Asylum seekers and then a further 95000 through family reunion programs (the sort of thing the TPV process would prevent).

    The “Nauru solution” is fairlyland stuff when it comes to any genuine attempt to resolve refugee issues when compared to the steps taken to deal with the Vietnamese situation in the late 70’s. It’s fundamental consequences were simply the continued build up of large numbers of refugees in Indonesia and other such places, and an easy way of pretending to do something by simply shuffling people out of sight. It built up increasing pressure in Indonesia, and helped to sour our relationships with them. Even if Howard had stayed in power he would have had to abandon it by now, in favour of developing a genuine approach to the matter.

  12. BigBob @ 3079

    [They got to the frontlines in American trucks, using American fuel and shot bullets using American powder.

    The whole who did the most ‘winning’ argument is pointless – it was a mostly unified effort that destroyed a great evil.

    Pull one plank out and the end result would have been much delayed (the Germans could never win once the US factories started to pump out war material).]

    One could be simplistic and say that the Russions provided the men, and the Americans provided the material, but that is an unsatisfying explanation for such a complex and world girdling effort undertaken by the US armed forces and US manufacturing in WW2. Let us also not forget that the US was simultaneously conducting a land, sea and air war against the Japanese Empire, and that, at its peak manpower level, the US armed forces numbered over 12 million, with many millions more in war production in the US and elswhere.

    I agree with your analysis that the Lend Lease programme provided the underpinnings (at least from 1942 onwards when it really got into gear for the Russians) for the Red Army to regroup in that year, and after the German debacle at Stalingrad, to turn the tide.

    Alternative WW2 histories point to an number of ‘turning points’ – The fall of France and the non-invasion of England in the summer of 1940, Moscow in December 1941 and Hitler’s lack of strategic vision, but the 2 most convincing ‘turning points’ to me both have their genesis on December 7th 1941 – (1) if the Germans and the Japanese had acted in strategic concert (as the Allies eventually did) and BOTH attacked the Soviets in 1941 from opposite sides of the continental mass, then there is no Stalingrad in 1943, and no German reversal of fortune, no American intervention on the side of the Allies, at least unlikely in 1942, and who knows what the result?

    (2) the other ‘turning point’ is slightly more esoteric, and goes like this – the sneak attack on December 7th 1941 unites the US in a way not seen since the Revolutionary War, and awakes the slumbering US productive capacity and US military into such prodigies of production that more than 100,000 airplanes, millions of tons of US warships, and 10’s of millions of tons of war materials are churned out by the US manufacturing base that geared up for total war and maximum effort and sacrifice from the civilian population, as the British had done before them, and in a way that the Germans could not manage until 1944 when it was too late.

    Either way, the Russians could justifiably be said to have done most of the heavy lifting in terms of manpower in Europe, but the US supplied the industrial and material wherewithal to aid the Eastern Front push, the airforces to pulverise the German front lines, the cities and war production centres, as well as more than 3 million soldiers at their peak deployment in 1945 on the Western Front.

    An Allied team effort unlike any in history, and unlikely to be ever repeated in such a form ever again, given the US is now, and will remain for the forseeable future, the sole military superpower in the world.

  13. [STFU, you imbecile.]

    It’s a good question.

    When was the last time Australian troops in a war zone doing their duty for their country and putting their own lives at risk, were charged by war crimes by it’s own government(and yes, lets cut this bullshit that the army is not part of the government)?

  14. Big Ship,

    I pretty much agree with your thoughts – except the Japanese were never going to attack the Bear, even when the Bear had it’s eyes firmly fixed on it’s European flank.

    Too many recent smackdowns had resulted in severe Ursuphobia in the army.

    Best to attack those weak willed imperialists in SE Asia.

  15. Rod
    […and partly because the US (and other countries) were prepared to accept far more Vietnamese refugees than they are from areas where they are involved in other conflicts today]
    Do you think that was partly motivated to “rescue”/guilt their Vietnamese supporters once the communists took over?

    Would there be a similar potential motivation post the 2014 exit?

  16. [If only the reffos would convert to christianity then they would get Bernardi marching in the street to help them.]

    many of them are christian and are fleeing persecution in their home countries. their problem is largely being poor and being the wrong colour. we know, from the howard govt. giving visas to ba’athists in exchange for donations, money will trump colour any time.

    vietnamese refugees are a different story. many of the refugees we let in were ex arvn. it was politically expedient to let them in and not look to hard for any torturers and murderers.

  17. Fizz wizz

    Still waiting for an answer – why should poor countries shoulder the burden of the refugees and rich countries squib it? Are you a squib too? Perhaps you’re Peter Costello trying a new tack in populism, planning a comeback as Howard-lite.

    And as for the soldiers, surely your side still advocates the line if you’ve done nothing wrong you’ve got nothing to hide. That’s philosophy of justice 101 at redneck central ain’t it?

  18. [GeeWizz
    Posted Friday, October 22, 2010 at 12:14 pm | Permalink
    STFU, you imbecile.

    It’s a good question.

    When was the last time Australian troops in a war zone doing their duty for their country and putting their own lives at risk, were charged by war crimes by it’s own government(and yes, lets cut this bullshit that the army is not part of the government)?]

    How about this?

    [Soldier cleared over Timor corpsesSeptember 30, 2003

    Print this article
    Email to a friend

    An Australian soldier has been cleared for a second time of allegations of mistreating militia corpses in East Timor in 1999, the army says.

    The unidentified SAS soldier was facing administrative action after already being found not guilty by a Defence Force Magistrate of mistreating two corpses at the East Timorese village of Suai on October 6, 1999.

    One allegation was that the soldier had kicked a corpse.

    The magistrate found the soldier not guilty after ruling the identity of New Zealand special forces soldiers could not (not) be adequately protected if they testified against him.

    The prosecution was unable to present any evidence because the soldiers could not testify.

    After the court case, the head of Army Special Operations, Major-General Duncan Lewis, reviewed the evidence against the soldier to determine if administrative action should be taken against him.

    Major-General Lewis found the soldier had no case to answer.

    “In making this decision, the soldier’s commander Major-General Duncan Lewis, Special Operations Commander Australia, was mindful of the soldier’s service in the Australian Army, which he noted was one of the finest records of service covering a long and distinguished career,” an army statement said.

    “This decision brings to a conclusion all action that flowed from a comprehensive investigation into a series of allegations surrounding Australian INTERFET soldiers in East Timor during 1999.”]

    Charged under Howard. But acquitted. Just like what is likely to happen in this case.

  19. [1. The queue if it exists is 135 years long if you divide refugees seeking asylum by refugee uptake by all countries combined.]

    Yes and every single one of them faces the exact same issue. Why then should Australia only take those who have the money to jump the queue?

    Australia takes 13,500 Refugee’s a year. Jumping on a boat means someone waiting in line has just had their spot stolen and must wait another few years. This is unjust, unfair, and unAustralian.

    [And a question for the oracle – what were the pull factors that led to the ‘failure’ by Howard to control our borders in 1999 -2001]

    The same pull factors that we see now. Australia is a very very very attractive product for those wishing to jump the queue. Make the product less appealing by denying family reunions, rights of appeal, permanent residency and offshore processing like Howard did in 2001 and you will quickly see the end of the boat market.

    It’s all about supply and demand of the Australian product.

  20. [many of them are christian and are fleeing persecution in their home countries. their problem is largely being poor and being the wrong colour. ]

    Most Afghans are white.

    Most Australians support refugee’s coming through the front door.

    Most Australians are against queue jumpers coming through the back door.

    This is not racism, the left can’t accept any views differing from their own.

  21. Federal Liberals tell VEXNEWS. One opined:

    “This is the final straw. Hockey’s out of his depth. He botched the costings during the election and even after the election. Robb did everything he could to throw him a life-preserver but today is the end. Abbott will p*ss him off in a quick, quiet, summer reshuffle next year, probably in Robb’s favour because this cannot go on. He’s worse than Barnaby. If it didn’t have possible leadership implications, maybe Turnbull should get the job.”]

    Wow – that does spell the end of Joe’s leadership dreams as outlined by Bob Baldwin to his local Branch members and told to me by his head cook and bottlewasher here.

  22. GW

    Please explain where the queue is in Afghanistan and Iraq?

    And if there isn’t a queue and they have to go to another country to join the queue, why shouldn’t there be a queue in Australia?

  23. [The “queue” is the excuse of the bigot.]

    I’ll remind you of that when I push in front of you at the McDonalds/Post Office/Bank/Cinema/Pub

    It is embedded in every child in Australia that it is polite and respectful to wait in a line for your turn and that it is incredibly rude and impolite to push infront of others. This is embedded into our culture and values.

  24. [Wow – that does spell the end of Joe’s leadership dreams as outlined by Bob Baldwin to his local Branch members and told to me by his head cook and bottlewasher here.]

    In journalistic language, that is “sources close to government”

  25. [The audience were largely Bob Francis (local shock jock) acolytes and younger ignoramuses.]

    BK @3375

    To your knowledge, did Francis urge his listeners to attend the meeting? I’m not aware of this particular individual, but assume he’s a local version of the Parrot or Melbourne’s Steve Price.

  26. The war continues

    [Howard’s Costello blast unfair, says Minchin Thomas Hunter and Georgina Robinson
    October 22, 2010 – 12:25PM

    Peter Costello was “fantastic” with the Australian public and did not lack the common touch, says former Howard government minister Nick Minchin.

    Speaking in response to claims made in a new book by John Howard that his former treasurer was an “elitist” who could not connect with average Australians, Senator Minchin said the description was inaccurate and was not supported by his own experiences with Mr Costello.

    “I think that is unfair on Peter,” said Senator Minchin, who is retiring from parliament next June.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/howards-costello-blast-unfair-says-minchin-20101022-16ww2.html

  27. [I’m not aware of this particular individual, but assume he’s a local version of the Parrot or Melbourne’s Steve Price]

    Pretty much, except with a really fat head.

  28. Greens back Hockey

    [
    THE COALITION’S Joe Hockey has won Greens support for his call for more government action to stop banks lifting interest rates above official increases.

    Greens leader Bob Brown today backed greater regulation of the banking industry, saying it was “about time the banks gave a little bit of largesse back to the taxpayers”.

    Mr Hockey, the Coalition’s Treasury spokesman, sparked controversy yesterday when he said the Coalition would use its numbers in parliament to take action against the banks if the government did not, declaring that legislation was one of the options.

    Chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Graeme Samuel has also entered the debate, suggesting that the competition watchdog be given scope to stop banks signalling future interest rate movements.

    Senator Brown has tried to muster support for his own banking legislation aimed at trying to control “unfair mortgage increases”, which is currently before both houses.

    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-swing-behind-joe-hockey-on-bid-for-more-control-on-banks-over-interest-rates/story-fn59niix-1225942192389

  29. Alternative WW2 histories point to an number of ‘turning points’ – The fall of France and the non-invasion of England in the summer of 1940, Moscow in December 1941 and Hitler’s lack of strategic vision, but the 2 most convincing ‘turning points’ to me both have their genesis on December 7th 1941 – (1) if the Germans and the Japanese had acted in strategic concert (as the Allies eventually did) and BOTH attacked the Soviets in 1941 from opposite sides of the continental mass, then there is no Stalingrad in 1943, and no German reversal of fortune, no American intervention on the side of the Allies, at least unlikely in 1942, and who knows what the result?

    I’m presently reading The Making Of The Atomic Bomb, by Richard Rhodes, and it’s becoming plainer to me that another turning point, or perhaps outright blunder, was the Nazi and general Eastern European attitude towards Jews which, apart from resulting in the Holocaust, caused a lot of very bright young Jewish guys to emigrate to America to escape the pogroms and round-ups, eventually to work on the Bomb at Los alamos and in the American universities.

    It seems to have been a very Jewish bomb: developed, mainly by expatriate European Jews or their direct descendants (at least at the top of the engineering and theoretical processes), to wipe out a very Jewish enemy. Germany was lucky it was defeated before the bomb could be used against it.

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