Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. From the OO
    A QUEENSLAND Liberal MP has missed a meeting of Coalition colleagues, sparking speculation he might be negotiating with Labor to serve as Deputy Speaker.
    Sources confirmed this afternoon that Peter Slipper, who holds the seat of Fisher, had not appeared at the Coalition partyroom meeting, which began about 2pm.

    Opposition sources said they understood Mr Slipper had been negotiating with Labor over the Deputy Speaker’s role, which will be determined tomorrow, when Parliament sits for the first time since the August 21 election.

    Since Labor secured a slim House of Representatives majority after wining the support of Independent MPs Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, there have been intense negotiations about who will be the Speaker and Deputy Speaker

    Labor will nominate incumbent speaker Harry Jenkins for the senior role.

    At the weekend, Labor attempted to win over another Queensland Liberal, Alex Somlyay, to serve as deputy, provided he agreed not to support any no-confidence motion in the government.

    Isn’t this the guy who fell asleep in QT?

  3. [Until the Senate changes over, I imagine caution will be carefully stored in a shockproof box- and certainly will not be thrown to the winds…]

    k, i don’t think they should whip something up over lunch and test a hostile senate. (i just got my copy of green-anarchist whenever and it says we are in dissenting agreement on this). i do expect that the time between now and next july the hard work re: building a consensus, winning and firming opinion and putting skeptics and wreckers to the sword (in debating terms, the green-anarchist-islamist collective recommend we don’t talk about the final solution to the running dogs of capitalism question). i see the committee as a step in the right direction.

  6. this may give you an idea of Slipper’s interests…

    [Conferences, Delegations and Visits

    Member, Official Delegation to 15th AIPO General Assembly and bilateral visits, Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia, September-October 1994.

    Member, 98th IPU Conference, Cairo, and bilateral visit to Kuwait, September 1997.

    Member, 13th CPA Australian and Pacific Regional Seminar, Kiribati, July 1998.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to China and bilateral visit to Mongolia, April 2005.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to Indonesia, June 2005.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to 26th AIPO General Assembly, Laos, and bilateral visit to Pakistan, September 2005.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to Malaysia and Japan, April 2006.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to Fiji, April-May 2006.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to the Philippines and Indonesia, September 2006.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to Saudi Arabia and China, June-July 2007.

    Member, Parliamentary Delegation to Egypt and Israel, October-November 2008. ]

  8. blackdog, he fell asleep during a speech by the Indonesian President

    Guess who took the photo (allegedly)

    [
    Queensland Liberal MP Peter Slipper was caught napping – allegedly by fellow Liberal Alex Somlyay – who holds the neighbouring seat of Fairfax on the Sunshine Coast.

    The sneaky snooze took place during last week’s address to parliament by Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
    ]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/photo-of-peter-slipper-sleeping-in-parliament-wins-photographer-a-mock-award-from-rudd/story-e6freon6-1225842295371

  11. [A QUEENSLAND Liberal MP has missed a meeting of Coalition colleagues, sparking speculation he might be negotiating with Labor to serve as Deputy Speaker.]

    Can the day really get any better ? 🙂

    Just hope this doesn’t end up an anti-climax like Somlyay …

    The ALP have to ensure that Slipper stays in a “safe house” until the vote is taken … 🙂

  14. On Peter Slipper, he also missed the Liberal party room meeting a few weeks back that elected the creature and mesma, ostensibly to visit India

    [Pete slips out on Tibet retreat
    17th September 2010

    It’s a question more than a few people have been asking after it emerged the besieged Member for Fisher was the only LNP MP not to attend the Liberal’s first post-election party room meeting in Canberra last Thursday.

    The Daily called Mr Slipper’s office yesterday morning in an attempt to find out where he was and had no joy, but a call to Mr Slipper’s media man Richard Bruinsma yielded a better result.

    Mr Bruinsma said the MP was on the Coast, but missed the party room gathering because he was in India meeting with the Dalai Lama.]
    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2010/09/17/-peter-slipper-tibet-dalai-lama-travel-mp/

  15. So many Coalition MP’s seem unsure who “won” the election.

    Here’s my advice – I think they should all turn up to Parliament House tomorrow and see which side of the Chamber(s) they are sitting on, and then work out what that means!

  17. Re Mr Slipper. I read somewhere that LNP are trying to get Mal Brough back into Parliament. I think Mr Slipper’s electorate might be the one that they were looking at, or may be it’s his good friend Mr Somlyay’s.

  18. [victoria
    Posted Monday, September 27, 2010 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
    Greg Hunt due to give press conference at 4.00 pm. Let me guess. Climate change committee — GBNT!!]

    will we see it all

  19. [victoria
    Posted Monday, September 27, 2010 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
    Greg Hunt due to give press conference at 4.00 pm. Let me guess. Climate change committee — GBNT!!]

    will we see it all

  20. [I don’t believe it is ignorance. It is selective journalism. Try to set the agenda to suit their narrative. Asking a question that is inaccurate, is deliberately asked anyway. Why? because it gives legitimacy to the issue as they want it perceived.]

    victoria – you are not supposed to let us all know how the little darlings go about their work.

    Just loved the PM saying ‘the new paradigm needs media stability’. Matthew Franklin and Shamaham must have gone a bit green. Good question as always from Laura Tingle. What a class act she is.

  24. Frank

    It may be that the causation is the other way…the Liberal Party is a front for News Corp 😉

    Otherwise agree with your sentiments 😀

  27. crikey frank, i’m glad i only disagree with you on here, where william can protect me! excellent target selection though, fire for effect!

  28. Starting a rumour that Chris Uhlmann is giving the following evening class:

    How A Failed Candidate Can Still Be A Player in Australian Politics

  29. Greg Hunt doing presser on the biggest issue around, the climate change alliance is a real game changer

    Abbott can’t be there, he is otherwise occupied rat hunting

  30. [Re Massola outing Grog – seem my Twitterfeed – If I pasted it here William would rightly snip it – I don’t hold back

    http://twitter.com/frankscan65%5D

    Frank, I know it gets it off your chest, but such posts simply convince the dingbats that they must be right and make people who are wavering on issues head the other way because they don’t like what you say. You aren’t doing Grog any favours with that sort of stuff. Simply entrenching the enemy and giving them something that they will likely use against him through some sort of “guilt by association” process.

    Think about it.

  32. Punna

    Before Julia’s press conference, Toolman suggested that there was skullduggery going on according to Libs re Labor still trying to get coalition member for speaker role. Now he says Libs are concerned it is Peter Slipper.

    Yes, Toolman trying to be a player.

  33. Cannot wait, Hunt what a tedious little self centred pr-k. he who unashamedly uses the deaths of those 4 kids in roofs to suit his and his rodent boss political agenda, and still doing it at any opportunity, sleeze the pair of them.

  34. [ Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, September 27, 2010 at 3:56 pm | Permalink
    [Re Massola outing Grog – seem my Twitterfeed – If I pasted it here William would rightly snip it – I don’t hold back

    http://twitter.com/frankscan65

    Frank, I know it gets it off your chest, but such posts simply convince the dingbats that they must be right and make people who are wavering on issues head the other way because they don’t like what you say. You aren’t doing Grog any favours with that sort of stuff. Simply entrenching the enemy and giving them something that they will likely use against him through some sort of “guilt by association” process.

    Think about it.]

    I Don’t Care – I Give it to them cos they deserve it – unlike you whose scared of the fools.

  35. The ALP and Greens need to change the cc target from a 5% cut to something greater.

    Firstly, the cost differential between a small cut and a moderate cut (via ETS or tax) is tiny.

    Secondly, it gets rid of the argument about imposing costs for little gain.

    Thirdly and most importantly in a political context, it makes the Libs ‘direct action’ completely unfeasible.

  38. Oakeshott
    [Ar, but these days Dio we can employ the dual purpose argument. We are not making them sterile… we are regulating their periods.]

    Not for the males!

  40. [ Don’t Care – I Give it to them cos they deserve it – unlike you whose scared of the fools.]

    In other words you don’t care if it damages Grog himself?

    There are plenty of ways of attacking such things that don’t have that effect.

  41. And in the context of outing of non de plumes.

    My real name, unsurprisingly, is not Blue_green. I am really a 6-foot tall, blond bombshell, with a PhD in atomic physics. I live in Toorak, Melbourne. I speak 17 different languages including Icelandic. I own three yachts yet don’t know how to tie a granny knot. I am an expert in environmental policy and yet take a small ‘l’ liberal approach to other political issues.

  42. [I think Mr Slipper’s electorate might be the one that they were looking at, or may be it’s his good friend Mr Somlyay’s.]

    The latter, blackdog. According to very reliable “whisper” he was leaned on ever so heavily to resign so Mal Brough or Dutton (after he failed on the Gold Coast) could win it in by-election.

  43. I think we can skip this one………..

    [ GregHuntMP About to do a doorstop at Parliament House about Gillard’s secret committee commencing planning for Labor’s Electricity Tax. 13 minutes ago via web ]

  44. cyril,

    You are “the devil” sometimes.

    Slipper is an ordained Anglican Minister. So, probably has some training in dispensing with anti Christs like Heffernan.

  45. OzPolTragic

    I read your earlier post on other thread. Sharing your thoughts on your own circumstances is very much appreciated. It does give one pause to think about these things very deeply.

  46. [ latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Greg Hunt says JG’s climate change ctte is ‘repugnant’ and coalition will not participate.
    1 minute ago ]

    Repugnant? And this is the guy who is meant to have been one of the climate change warriors in the Libs? Yeah, OK.

  47. sprocket looks as if the channels are skipping it as well, Hunt will probably just rabbit on as he usually does, says nothing and takes 15 mins to do it.

  48. [Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, September 27, 2010 at 4:02 pm | Permalink
    Don’t Care – I Give it to them cos they deserve it – unlike you whose scared of the fools.

    In other words you don’t care if it damages Grog himself?

    There are plenty of ways of attacking such things that don’t have that effect.
    ]

    It Won;t damage Grog you paranoid fool.

    It Exposes the media for what they are.

    I have the balls to tell it to their faces – you don’t.

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