Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie
    I do hope you are being sarcastic. 🙂
    Wasn’t the Toolman a Christian Democrat? One can only imagine the fireworks between the Tool & his wife.

  4. Good to see that only 2% of green supporters prefer Abbott as leader of the Opp. 10% of Labor supporters. Hope to see the decline generally in the coming weeks.

  5. Dee

    No, no sarcasm. I was being the wide-eyed reporter. I reported what I heard…
    My actual thought was – well, if the Coal aren’t quite sure what tack to take, Uhlmann has just given it to them.
    Remember, the environmental IQ of some of the Coal isn’t very high. 😡

  6. [Those figures supporting an ETS are pretty much unmoved since the Libs decided to use it as a defining difference between the parties. The problem on the pro ETS side comes when the actual solution is proposed. Some will think it good, some will think it goes to far and some will think it doesn’t go far enough. Hence the 30+% opposed from the outset is always a siignificant block on any real outcome being achieved.]

    GG, i don’t understand this. are you suggesting that labor should govern for the 27% of people opposed to climate change, most of whom won’t vote for them anyway? by comparison the 63% who support quick action on global warming is more than the percentage of people opposed to workchoices in march 2007.

    would have said that the problem with workchoices is that when labor move to abolish it, “Some will think it good, some will think it goes to far and some will think it doesn’t go far enough. Hence the 30+% opposed from the outset is always a siignificant block on any real outcome being achieved.”?

    ironically it took dumping beazley, who dithered on opposing workchoices for similar reasons, before labor finally dug a trench and fixed bayonets on the issue.

  7. More demonstrating that you never know where Katter is on any matter or whether he will hold the same view a bit later on.

    He always finds a way of defending abbott.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/katter-says-three-amigos-not-so-close-20100927-15t8c.html

    Katter says ‘three amigos’ not so close

    Kennedy MP Bob Katter says he was excluded by his two country independent colleagues during the recent negotiations to form government.

    Mr Katter chose to support Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to become prime minister while New South Wales independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott helped Julia Gillard retain power and form a minority government.

    On the eve of the first sitting of the new Parliament tomorrow, Mr Katter took aim at the two other members of the so-called “three amigos” who together had the power to decide which side formed government.

    “I was very disappointed that my independent colleagues didn’t come with me,” Mr Katter told Fairfax Media’s North West Star.

    “I didn’t want to do it individually because I thought it would carry so much more weight [to work collectively]. But we didn’t and I have no hesitation in saying I found it very difficult to get meetings with my colleagues during that period.”

    Mr Katter was so disillusioned with the negotiation process that he is now calling for a different way of working as an independent.

    “It has changed my thinking on going down the independent road. We need an independent movement. I’m not going to put up with what I put with in the last few weeks.”

    But Mr Katter refused to specify what he had in mind, such as having independents gather for formal caucus meetings or even forming a new party.

    “I’ll let you put your own interpretation on that,” he said.

    ..Mr Katter defended Tony Abbott for reneging on a deal to allow the speaker of the House of Representatives to be “paired” with an abstaining member with opposing views so that the speaker could effectively keep a vote on laws.

    He said there was more to the negotiations on the speakership than the public was aware of.

    Mr Abbott’s position was “nowhere near as bad as it looks” but it was not a good start for the man trying to gain the nation’s trust, he said.

    “I would have to ask very serious questions about him. He burned up his credibility on a minor issue. You might have to break some of those things later on but you don’t burn up credibility on a minor issue. His competitive streak overcame his better judgment.”

    …Mr Katter said he did not believe a mid-term change of government would happen. If two more independents switched sides and voted with the Coalition, Tony Abbott would be able to become prime minister without another election.

    The mid-term change of government has happened several times at state level, and once on the national level when John Curtin became prime minister in the middle of World War II.

    Even though he backed the Coalition, Mr Katter said he would be unlikely to help bring down the Gillard Government.

    “I think people are getting a little bit uptight about that for no good reason. The people have voted through a due process and this is the outcome that has occurred. They are entitled through due process to govern.

    “If we start running around changing the government every five months then I don’t think that’s very good for anyone.”

  8. lizzie

    Julia has had ample opportunity at this announcement for the coalition to participate in this committee. See if coalition show any goodwill.

  9. [Ar, but these days Dio we can employ the dual purpose argument. We are not making them sterile… we are regulating their periods.]

    it also cuts down on the number of ‘spontaneous’ pregnancies you have to explain away.

  11. I did Lizzie, the man is unscrupulous, should be on Abbotts press team he would feel right at home. Victoria summed him up. Gilbert on Sky looked very sour also, barely said a word at the conclusion. Now the whiz blonde reporter Ash Gillan is talking to Christine Milne and led off with DO WE NEED YET ANOTHER COMMITTEE? What a fool. How the hell does she expect to reach a difinitive workable outcome. The ignorance of the media knows no bounds. Have the Greens reached a compromise with the Govt? Oh dear, wonder if she realises why there is a committee been formed. Her questions are pathetic.

  13. victoria

    yes, she’s bringing up the “you are welcome to join in” at every opportunity. She also “mentioned in passing” that some of the Coal members actually agree that there should be some action 🙂 , unlike Tone.

  14. anony,

    I am not responsible for your understanding so you’ll have to go back to reform school.

    Perhaps you’ll just have to write something glib and offensive like you usually do.

  15. anony,

    There was division in the case for action- and none whatsoever in the case for sitting still.

    Guess who won?

    There were, of course, some highly skilled wreckers on duty then ➡ and there are several on duty now.

    We can win this- but as has been pointed out many times on this blog and elsewhere, the so-called “majority support for action” could well turn out to be as firm as a junket sandwich.

  16. David

    What is beginning to bug me is that “ABC24the news” seems to blur the division between news and opinion. Political editor C.U. apparently means “please comment on the news negatively”.
    I like explanations of what is happening. I enjoy opinion by knowledgeable journalists.
    But we’re not getting our money’s worth.
    This, of course, is what Bludgers have been complaining about for weeks.

  18. [I am not responsible for your understanding so you’ll have to go back to reform school.

    Perhaps you’ll just have to write something glib and offensive like you usually do.]

    GG, i was trying to be polite, i even capitalised ‘GG’. if it offends you that i actually want to know the reasoning behind your opinions, i am happy to skip straight to demolishing them in future. please let me know which option you prefer so that i may be single-minded in prosecuting it.

  20. K, that is the case for every issue. there will always be opponents and wreckers. through it’s history the labor party has often supported issues in advance of public opinion, because they were good things. i’ve never stated that public support means it’s easy, but it will be easier than if it were 50/50.

  21. Thanks, everyone, for the timing of the link to ABC. I refuse to have it on all day, but it’s always better to see the actual event than a single sentence report.

  24. [Julia has had ample opportunity at this announcement for the coalition to participate in this committee. See if coalition show any goodwill.]

    The PM should get cheeky and invite Malcolm explaining that his views could be worth hearing.

  25. Until the Senate changes over, I imagine caution will be carefully stored in a shockproof box- and certainly will not be thrown to the winds…

  29. victoria

    or wilful ignorance!

    Actually, I think they think they’re being “smart” to ask gotcha questions, but they need to do their homework and they’d be more effective. (Thinks: especially if they asked Abbott a few).

  30. lizzie

    I don’t believe it is ignorance. It is selective journalism. Try to set the agenda to suit their narrative. Asking a question that is inaccurate, is deliberately asked anyway. Why? because it gives legitimacy to the issue as they want it perceived.

  31. Just to clarify something in the last thread.

    anony wrote:

    [rod, you raise some very good points. i must say though, considering the examples you’ve given are at the very least against organisational and professional codes of conduct and possibly illegal, would it be necessary to legalise euthanasia to make health outcomes for indigenous australians worse?]

    Anony, just to clarify, I wasn’t suggesting that indigenous health outcomes would be worse if euthanasia was legalised. I was just pointing out that I could understand the suspicions and fears that legalised euthanasia could lead to amongst groups who had experienced the sort of treatment, and lack of personal “agency” or control over even the most basic aspects of life, that Aboriginal Australians in the NT had had to deal with.

    Essentially I was saying that there are people with understandable concerns, even fears, about such things that don’t simply come down to matters of religious belief, and that these need to be given due weight in debate about such matters. As I said at the time, I am personally strongly in favour of permitting people to choose to die in a dignified fashion in appropriate circumstances. Enabling this without producing fear and uncertainty in others is not a simple question, however, and any means of enabling it needs to be thought through very carefully.

  33. I’m beginning to believe there is only one journo who does all the work in Australia – that is, reads the media releases, goes to the PRs, researches the info.

    This guy decides what the story is and how it’s to be reported and then puts it on the feed to all the others, who then run with it.

    I can’t come up with any other theory that fits all the facts…

  34. Looking forward to Tones pc. GBNT!! GNBT!!! , everytime you open the fridge door GBNT, everytime you turn on the lights GBNT, I’ve forgotten the rest. Same old repetition as usual.

  36. victoria,

    We’ll all have ulcers before long.

    Keeping your shoulder hard to the door of a cell containing a wild beast is stressful!

  37. [anony,

    Take a ticket and join the queue

    Plenty of threatening wankers just like you have come and gone from PB.]

    when you actually start talking about politics, or something that’s more interesting than your high school posturing, i’ll be happy to provide a robust counterpoint.

  38. lizzie

    Julia and her team are getting on with the business of governing. The govts actions will speak louder than any words by the journos.

    Here is hoping for good governance.

  39. [GG, i don’t understand this. are you suggesting that labor should govern for the 27% of people opposed to climate change]

    Hey! I’m opposed to climate change! The world has got quite hot and bothered enough for me already thanks very much. Is it only 27% of us who think so! I’d always thought it was GG who was in favour of the stuff, or didn’t think it was happening anyway, or some such, that was in the minority! 😉

    (sorry anony. Couldn’t resist!)

  41. lizzie and Victoria, maybe the reason why the journos don’t ask Abbott gotcha questions is because the don’t know where to start….

    It is what the military call a “target rich environment”…

  42. John Reidy

    I am more inclined to believe they are giving him a free pass to GO, so he can collect his $200 or 20 pieces of silver!

  43. rod, thanks for your reply, i agree with what you said overall re: suspicions about euthanasia not being solely based in religion. it is a problem, with any kind of consent, determining how and whether that consent is valid. it gets much more murky once you have a cultural barrier that is not addressed or worse exacerbated by a refusal to understand it.

  44. [counterpoint.]

    now wasnt that an abc programme with some on othere cannot think of his name

    i tolerated it for about two episodes then forgot it.

  45. Zoomster

    [only one journo who does all the work in Australia]

    [This guy decides what the story is]

    I think this guy has been outsourced to a call centre.

  49. anony,

    You’re the only person on the blog that could not understand my previous political point. This hardly fills me with trepidation about your rhubarb counterpoints.

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