The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.
UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.
UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.
I think the average reader of The Australian sort of rolls their eyes over its whacko-land approach to reporting politics, and focusses instead on the many other strong points in the paper — especially the arts, lively general news reporting and so forth.
@Andrew 144
I don’t think the coalition is fighting this campaign any more.
They’re now fighting the next one.
Goshome, the headline, had the poll shifted the order of magnitude it did to the coalition would have been “SHOCK POLL: COALITION SUPPORT SURGES IN INDEPENDENTS’ SEATS”
Andrew 134
I think you might have misunderstood what I was doing. The 47-39 stuff comes from a national poll (55 seats) despite their misleading headline. So as we weren’t given voting intention data I used the last national data they published (the one that gave TPP 50.2-49.8 on election eve). I used that because the two Essential Polls have been 50-50 since the election so I thought it could be a reasonable starting assumption.
But using that as a starting point you get Coal 46-Labor 40, so clearly that starting point must be way out – I think William says the true TPP must be in 54-46 area favoring Labor.
rocket youre confusing the 2 polls. The Newspoll is the indie seat poll, the JWS is the 55 seats
Thanks Oscar,
Given that QAL’s distributed in all 3 Rural Amigos’ electorates (esp Oakshotts’ & Windsors’) I’m adding a couple of articles from Q Country Life which may be influencing their decisions as I type:
Today’s Front Page The 3 Indie Amigos & issues feature prominently.
This one for Greens & greenie elements in the ALP and Libs who 2nd/ 3rd preference them: Greens [Larissa Waters] pledge to honour farmland protection commitment
[“We have alternatives for energy production, we don’t have alternatives for food,” she told the gathering of 150 mainly farmers and rural business people at AgShow.
“2.2pc of Queensland is considered good quality agricultural land… we have 80pc of Queensland under mining tenements, they have other places to go.”
Ms Waters provided a critique of existing federal and state environmental legislation which she described as inadequate and ill-equipped to manage the emerging coal seam gas industry]
And on the emerging cola-seam gas industry Well, well, well – report links CSG to aquifers This report concerns the Condamine Alluvium; not only one of the most important freshwater aquifers in the State, as the article states, but the Darling’s above- & below-ground Headwaters, affecting both the River and the Great Artesian Basin; so what seems to be a SWQ problem with mining in the Surat Basin, affects all GAB areas shown on this map
We don’t know what Abbott has promised the 3 Indie Amigos; but he’s given no hint that he will rein in any miners; quite the contrary. Greens, on the other hand, have been actively involved, and the Q government has moved to quarantine that 2.2pc of Queensland … considered good quality agricultural land, and to reassess areas affected by GAB issues in the Condamine Alluvium & Surat Basin.
[“I voted for him, I won’t do it again if he supports a Labor Greens government”, has led them to believe it was part of a co-ordinated campaign.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/independents-accuse-coalition-of-dirty-tricks/story-e6frfllr-1225914066222#ixzz0yW04ZlIE ]
Ah yes! As I stated on PBer. The Abetz grassroots campaign has begun. His allies and most dedicated group are the Salt Shakers & some other religious fruit loop group.
When the campaign was waged against Turnbull, Abetz enlisted this group to storm Coalition ministers against Turnbull & the ETS.
He even gave them a draft letter to script their attacks. They were called to arms to deluge the news blog sites. The Punch outed one to warn the others.Their dedication brings results.
We need to be this dedicated to knock the Murdoch agenda for six.
[Hoping that the final 2PP goes Labor’s way. I think the “illegitmacy”, “we wuz robbed” arguments from the opposition and the MSM will be mammoth. ]
I watched Tony Burke smiling last night when he challenged Prissie Pyne on the voting numbers. Pyne was banging on about the Coalition getting the most number and TonyB just said wtte ‘seeing that you consider Labor and the Greens are in Coalition then the total vote for Lab/Green far exceeds yours’. Cheeky, but nice!.
Chinda63 – Stephen O’Doherty (former Lib NSW pollie) was spruiking the ‘threat to school funding’ line a few days ago after Abbott said it. O’Doherty is, I think, head of the private schools Assoc and has a gig on Sky from time to time.
Dee, I’m going to claim that I was the first PBer who flagged that the coalition would wage a fake constituents phone call campaign to the indies, but I’m not scrolling through thousands of posts!!
[Even if they chose to swallow the “leak” excuse hook line and sinker, there was certainly enough info in the public domain of holes in the NBN, education rebate and veteran’s indexation to show the dodginess of their figures.]
I feel for journos like Laura Tingle and Peter Martin, who both warned their readers during the campaign that the coalition’s figures simply didn’t add up. Tingle tried to get info out of Robb, Hockey and Tone, but was either stonewalled or ignored. We all saw how Abbott handled pressers when they got sticky – he just walked away.
Unfortunately none of this was shown to voters through popular nightly news programs, and there was no concerted effort in the MSM to engage voters on the coalition’s costings, or Abbott’s avoiding scrutiny. Tingle is locked behind a paywall in a publication only the pointy-headed elites read, and Martin’s columns are pretty much in the same category, so their articles would not have been seen by the vast majority of the electorate.
Something needs to be done to break up the monopoly of media ownership in this country. Hopefully this new parliament will be willing to take on that challenge.
[127
Andrew
…….if Labor scrapes through this they need to accept that the campaign was a complete failure. They may want to blame the leaks, but it wasn’t only about the leaks, it was absolute failure to fight on the economy. They also need to accept that you should stick by a leader even if the polls turn, but I’m sure they wont learn that one.
Up to that point, Labor were willing to stick with Rudd, knowing that to remove him would cause endless distraction and confusion, effectively making it impossible for the Government to deliver clear messages on the economy or anything else.]
My understanding is that, despite his failings, there was no support for the removal of Rudd up until the RSPT really started to unravel and his net satisfaction ratings fell to about -20 and Labor’s PV collapsed.
The immediate factor was Rudd’s net satisfaction ratings. They were terrible and in free fall in the weeks leading up to his removal. What this means is that every time he appeared in public or spoke on any matter, more people were being driven away than attracted to Labor. Recall, the PV vote for Labor had fallen to 35%. In WA, Labor’s PV had fallen into the 20’s – the worst level ever recorded. QLD was trending in the same direction.
We have just seen that Labor cannot win with a PV of 38.5%, so they were going to take a complete hiding if they could not improve on 35%. The Government were certainly aware they would lose very badly on those numbers.
If Rudd had remained PM, there was a 90/10 chance they would lose every seat in WA and nearly every seat in QLD, and absolutely no chance that Victoria and SA could save the day. There was also every likelihood that Labor would have experienced a far bigger loss in NSW than occurred under Gillard. It was also plain to all that Rudd lacked the skills and the judgment to lead Labor out of this situation.
We can all be very certain that Labor absolutely did not want to dump Rudd just because they thought he had some kind of personality disorder and had become impossibly obnoxious in his dealings with his colleagues. They had been prepared to overlook these traits for 5 years and had put up with him. In the end, they decided to do it because the alternative was electoral annihilation.
Sacking Rudd caused a great deal of upheaval. That much is obvious. The media were supercharged by the story, and it opened a new line of attack on Labor by the LNP and created divisions among Labor’s supporters. It also greatly heated up the political atmosphere and precipitated an election at a time that was not necessarily of Labor’s choosing. And the campaign was often incoherent, clumsy and lacking thematic punch. I am sure it will become the subject of lessons in how not to run campaigns.
And yet, at the end of it all, Labor has done very much better than they would have had Rudd been allowed to remain as leader. There is absolutely no question about that. Gillard has all the promise of being a good PM. While she is certainly prone to errors, like any of us, hopefully she will not be another minor tyrant who will lead the Party into another electoral trauma.
I think she has shown great qualities of political courage in being willing to take on Rudd and try to rescue the party’s fortunes before they became completely terminal.
She should get a lot of credit for that. She has shown qualities of resolve, resilience, intelligence and temperament that are needed in a leader. I hope she can keep on finding these strengths for a long time to come.
Has anyone – to the extent possible – plugged the Opposition’s assumptions into the Government’s costings to see what happens?
I’m thinking conservative bias allowance, interest rates and so on.
confessions, I am pretty sure that Howard’s changes could be reversed, and that the parliament post July 2011 would pass them. The MSM were most certainly all singing from the Murdoch hymn sheet all campaign.
It was amazing how Abbott’s petulant behaviour, mentioned in various tweets, never made it into the news. I never saw him walking out of pressers. I also saw him kicking a football, filleting a fish, and driving a truck. And spouting his inane slogans, which, unlike Moving Forward, were very acceptable to the MSM
morning bludgers!
confessions
The media (Murdoch) has been explicit in its quest to bring down this govt. It all started with the insulation scheme and the BER. The narrative was that Labor was the worst govt ever. Rudd blah blah blah. Anyhow, all that sticks in my mind was that Abbott met with Murdoch when he became OL. It has been no accident that the media has not scrutinised the Libs. It took the result of this election and the indies to bring the sham that is the coalition into the light.
Thank goodness for small mercies.
briefly
hear hear!
[Dee, I’m going to claim that I was the first PBer who flagged that the coalition would wage a fake constituents phone call campaign to the indies, but I’m not scrolling through thousands of posts!!]
You probably were. I think I posted something similar to this last night in light of the new wave of attacks on the indies, in particular Wilkie but am in no way claiming a thought of political genius..
[Unfortunately none of this was shown to voters through popular nightly news programs, and there was no concerted effort in the MSM to engage voters on the coalition’s costings, or Abbott’s avoiding scrutiny. ]
The private enterprise media aren’t required to do anything in particular beyond abide by the bare bones of the law. In-depth, impartial, quality reporting without fear or favour is, however, the ABC’s charetered duty. And they failed.
Epic fail.
briefly, that second para is not a quote from me.
The mistake you’re making is assuming that Rudd would not have improved in the polling. And of course we now know that he asked for three months to do so.
How many times did we see Howard turn things around in a campaign? Rudd’s campaign/campaigning in 2007 was excellent and he would have had the benefit of experience and incumbency.
Instead it was like we had two opposition leaders trying to be PM.
Ticker on ABC News 24: “Pain says independents have more in common with coalition”. Er, wrong. The Indies are honourable men, acting on principle. For them to jump into the cot with the Libs would be an act against nature. Different species.
Scringler
forgive my ignorance. who is “pain”?
This whole situation calls for a rethink by regional voters. The NP has had it’s day despite being able to turn up a 20 year old representative in one of its seats. The old ‘tweedy, ‘ding boot, wool board tie’ thing is long overdue for burial. Farmers have approached the whole environment thing in an adversarial way by treating the ‘greenies’ as feral animals who could have no positive effect on their perceived world where men-are-men and women make scones.
A classic argument has been to denigrate anyone supporting National Parks as a danger to farmers because the parks represent havens for feral animals and a bushfire threat.
However if there ever was a truly honest appraisal of where both the greens and farmers are positioned, they are effectively after most of the same outcomes. Ignoring the nutters and dinosaurs at either end of the respective spectrums there is significant common ground that with level headed appraisal and a bit of good-will could see alliances at a political level (such as could come from the current federal situation) that would be extremely productive.
The sad thing is that personal prejudice and collective ideology on both sides have negated any progress towards the greens concern for the well-being of the environment and the farmers need for a stable and sustainable environment to maintain their livelihoods.
Truth is, I think a lot of us define ourselves by our differences rather than our similarities. Is this a basic human trait?
My hope is that the Indies go with labor, you never know what might happen!
who is Pain? And dont we care about the indie seat polls now they dont favour the coalition.
Whatever happened to the crikey rumour that ABC staff were going to come out against the Murdoch influence? Never happened
philmour, the Nats have done nothing but tow the Liberal line, including on Telstra. If they dont want to be wiped out by indies, they had better get out of the coalition
pain = pyne? A most apt description if so.
[156…..OzPol Tragic]
This is a big deal imho….and it points out the inadequacy of the Constitution when it comes to large-system environmental issues. Only the Commonwealth can handle issues of this scale. I hope it is high on the new Government’s agenda.
Enough of the Rudd-bashing. The media crusade (the likes of which we have not seen before in its ferocity and concertedness to discredit a sitting Prime Minister) so comprehensively trashed his reputation and policy agenda that the public, who are, it must be said, grossly manipulable by the all-pervasive mainstream media, inevitably went along with the prevailing trumped-up super-meme, resulting in the polling deficit numerics that caused the Labor Party to have to act decisively to remove him.
victoria….:)
confessions@160
This – along with the NBN, of course – is why Murdoch (et al) are so terrified of a successful Labor/Green alliance. It’s the worst possible outcome for them, and they will fight it for all they’re worth – quite literally!.
If you think their role in this election was nasty (not to mention their role in denying Rudd oxygen when he needed it, without which the machine men in the Labor party would not have been able to topple him) then just wait. If Labor wins, they’ll do their damndest to have us back at the polls in months.
Without Abbott of course, who will remain eternally unelectable.
Fortunately for the left, Murdoch and his ilk are like dinosaurs – currently very powerful and also very mean, but also headed inexorably for extinction.
Perhaps it’s no coincidence that it is likely to be climate change that wipes these dinosaurs out once more.
The Labor government (like the Obama government) have toyed with alternative media, but not yet really fully engaged with it. But that’s the real answer. It may be that the people who will decide on the next government (or perhaps the one after that) will never have picked up a newspaper in their lives.
And ABC24 will join SlyNews in appealing only to that end of the demographic bell curve whos average age is higher than their average IQ.
But first, we have to wait for the independents to come to the correct decision …
Cuppa@176
It’s not Rudd-Bashing – but the truth.
Had Rudd stayed – The Media and the Opposition would’ve gone Ten times as feral as they did – they had all the Lemon07 ads ready, all the dirt stories etc.
When Julia was elected – their entire original elecrtion strategy was made redundant.
Cuppa, we will never know how Rudd would have gone, but it is very dangerous to assume that the poll slum he got into would not had improved during a campaign. Why would the MSM/Libs push so hard to remove Rudd if replacing him with Gillard hurt the Libs chances??
[A classic argument has been to denigrate anyone supporting National Parks as a danger to farmers because the parks represent havens for feral animals and a bushfire threat. ]
Surely this is a hangover from the image of ferals matted turds for hair in teepies, smoking hooter and generally making a nuisance of themselves. Stereotype slightly but it is good to see the greens moving on from this.
Although there is a slight chasm in the social progressive/conservative ideology, farmers and conservationist have much in common, be good to see a more cooperative approach to land management.
Andrew I agree, they are for the most part an agrarian-socialist ‘rump’ and to hear my local member Alby speak about them they don’t belong in the coalition. Independents of the calibre of the late Peter Andren would be their best option because while ever the Nats are around the rest of the voting population are going to regard rural voters who keep re-electing them as dumb hicks just interested in protecting their rural lifestyles.
But Frank, they were just as feral towards her in the end. Question after question about Rudd and the leaks. She as hurt by the baggage of removing Rudd and Labor simply did not factor this into the equation
[And ABC24 will join SlyNews in appealing only to that end of the demographic bell curve whos average age is higher than their average IQ.]
The only difference being that said demographic would not watch ABC24 in a fit. In fact any ABC channel.
Good morning
Very excited to read in the CM this morning that my electorate (Moreton)has now become the second most marginal seat in Qld. Still very upset and embarrassed by the stupidity and ignorance of people in this state to just swallow TA’s mantra rubbish. But on the bright side, am very much looking forward to seeing PM Julia, not for another three years hopefully, visiting on many occassions and hopefully getting to see her. I got polled for the first time this year and wonder what goodies we can expect next time around.
Frank @179 that was my reading of it as well.
hmmmmmmmm
Blackdog,
I think our local member is not very impressive, his list of first term achievements doesn’t amount to a lot (one intersection upgrade was it?) and if he wishes to remain he will need to up the pace IMHO.
Gweneth, I agreed at the time, but Labor simply underestimated what rolling Rudd would do in terms of tarnishing the government’s pre-Rudd record, losing the benefits of incumbency (particularly Gillard going so quickly to the polls), and the effect that the “knifing” would have on voters views of Gillard, especially in Qld.
They simply got rid of Rudd as if that would solve the problem. They did not think about the problems that it would create
meant pre-Gillard record of course
[confessions, I can guarantee that the MSM will NOT learn from this.]
Andrew, given changes to ABC & SBS boards in the next 1 months, and that Fairfax is more even handed than NewsLtd papers, just MSM may no longer reflect Oz media coverage. We, as yet, have no idea how the public broadcasters will change if Gillard is returned; but there’s been more a whiff of disgust with the Coalition as The Waiting continues. There may even be a return to more ABC rural coverage as Rural Indies wield more influence, and a return by SBS to its original charter.
If Gillard forms government, even NewsLtd, minus its influence on public broadcasters, and with ABC News24’s competition -and the public disgrace of Rupert’s Anointed One (Abbott) over costings, bribes & verbal abuse of Independents (as well as th ALP & Greens) – may become more even handed.
There are also external factors at play in NewsLtd’s “behaviour” (for want of a better word), including long-term Melbourne Storm fallout. Rupert’s venerable The (London) Times is becoming a major financial loss – about a million quid every four days; that’s around 90-100 million a year! Paywalling Times Online has, so far, been a resounding belly-flop. That UK Election10 resulted not in a Conservative win, but a coalition with the anti-Murdoch, pro-Guardian & Independent SocDems, may change the electoral system, as well as stymie whatever he had planned to reduce the BBC to a cypher.
Unless the government changes, Oz media might present a very interesting year of observations on how it handles the new realities of falling Murdoch influence, the impact of Greens & Indies on the national government, and how the Coalition changes to reflect new realities.
[I think she has shown great qualities of political courage in being willing to take on Rudd and try to rescue the party’s fortunes before they became completely terminal.]
I think we have all learned since little kids that telling a lie often will not turn it into truth.
‘Briefly’ has not learned this lesson. However this is not surprising as he declared his anti-Rudd stance long before the knifing occurred.
I guess I will have to restate the facts so that the Briefly/Arbib NSW Right meme doesn’t sort of become as a taken.
Rudd’s polls were higher than many a PM before him, Rudd’s polls were at such a level that barely a PM had ever lost from that position. Rudd’s polls were trending upwards.
On the polls and just as importantly by historical examples Rudd was very unlikely to lose that election.
Gillard did not show courage, it takes no courage to greedily grab power because you can, this is called selfishness, dishonesty and disloyalty.
[Try to rescue the Party’s fortunes]
I have to wonder if you lay straight in bed at night. Gillard’s act was, as is obvious to most by now, a selfish one unrelated to the welfare of the party. She took the chance that the nature of her power grab would be offset by the hunch that since she would be the first female PM, and that would give her enough votes to overcome any negative impact of her act.
It didn’t, many people saw through her and saw that it was pure selfishness and linked to the faceless men of the Right (the destroyers of NSW Labor).
She took Rudd’s 52/48 with an upward trend, and reversed it, crashed it to 50/50 with a downward trend.
So let me reword that sentence at the top to more accurately reflect reality.
[I think she has shown the facility of political opportunism and personal greed for power in being willing to ambush Rudd in the night and hope that nobody will make her accountable for it. And hoping she could make it over the line in a quick election.]
Gillard and her Labor Right cabal knifed Rudd for selfish and factional reasons. Then commenced to make a total mess of everything. Dog whistling to xenophobia, adopting Howard’s (previously abhorrent) Pacific Solution and abandoning CC policy to the previous decade.
She was performing so badly, in so much trouble, headed for a likely defeat, that she had to go cap in hand to Rudd for his help to save her. That Rudd did this wholeheartedly is a credit to him, and that he has worked hard to win of the indies is also testament that he is a much bigger person than Gillard.
It is simply this. Gillard and her faction knifed Rudd for power and in doing so almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
One thing that really shows the character of Gillard and factional team is the way they went about smearing Rudd for the previous 12 months to undermine him, the way they went about smearing him to death after knifing him in order to legitimise Gillard AND the way they then went about blaming Rudd when they almost lost the election because of what THEY did.
Those in adoration of Gillard should reflect carefully on her character.
Now I realise this is essentially a blog taken over by ‘Labor or nothing’ and that any retelling of the actually facts that make her look a bit dirty is abhorrent.
But a slap in the fact touch of reality really needs to be laid on a few here who obviously realise they need to rewrite history to legitimise Gillard.
Tough
zizek, that would make 2 conservative hacks. Isnt there only one conservative hack’s chair on the panel?
Andrew@183
Only because they wanted to destroy him in an Election Campaign – they thought that Labor were going to stick with Rudd as leader – when that failed they decided to do a double whammy, paint him as the victim and use him to attack Gillard.
You can mark my words that those parents of the dead Batt workers would’ve been wheeled out at EVERY opportunity, along with a few workers/firms who lost their jobs cos of the scheme being axed.
Jon
I agree. Not very impressive at all. I was watching QT when he made that stupid statement about Ivan Milat (can’t exactly remember what he was comparing to), then had to apologise. Have never seen him or heard from him until a couple of weeks. He will have to pick up his game.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/7880113/liberal-hopes-fade-as-kingmaker-call-looms/
In the West Online this morning… 🙂
Thomas Paine@192
Give it a rest – we all know you are wRONg.
Pity your mate Abbott managed to screw up his chances at getting the top job.
TP, I wondered how long it would take for the conversation to flush you out! Whilst you will note that I agree with you about Rudd being replaced, you are placing too much blame on Gillard. She had not coveted the job, and as the leaks showed, was trying to broker a deal for Rudd to stay. She seemed reluctant to put her hand up.
[Cuppa, we will never know how Rudd would have gone, but it is very dangerous to assume that the poll slum he got into would not had improved during a campaign. Why would the MSM/Libs push so hard to remove Rudd if replacing him with Gillard hurt the Libs chances??]
True, Andrew, we will never know how he would have gone had he remained leader. One thing we DO know, as empirical fact, is that he is a brilliant campaigner. He put in an innovative and faultless campaign against Howard in 2007. Kevin Rudd deserves the esteem of every Labor supporter for that masterpiece and outcome alone. But even more than that, after he was abruptly dumped, after he came out of hospital after major surgery, he put understandable disappointment to one side and continued to campaign for Labor, in marginal seats, in Queensland seats, in his own seat of Griffith, and at the Labor Party’s official campaign launch function. To this day he remains a solid team player, demonstrated by his entering into discussions with Bob Katter to induce him to come on board. I dips me lid to him. A true hero, the victim, fundamentally, of a feral, partisan, groupthinking media.
Scringler @ 169
“Ticker on ABC News 24: “Pain says independents have more in common with coalition”. Er, wrong. The Indies are honourable men, acting on principle. For them to jump into the cot with the Libs would be an act against nature. Different species.”
I presume that was a typo, and “Pain” should have read “Palin”.