In the meantime:
• The Australian reports the dunce of the Senate, Steve Fielding, is contemplating adding constitutional vandal to the extensive list of black marks against his name. Fielding polled all of 2.7 per cent of the vote in Victoria on Saturday, yet remains a serious prospect to retain his Senate seat thanks to a disastrous electoral system that Labor has been determined not to reform.
• Today’s Sydney Morning Herald editorial offers some fascinating speculation about Tony Abbott’s tactics in the past few days. The paper’s national editor, Mark Davis, detects a high-stakes game with the objective of final victory at a fresh election. It is evident he will be backed to the hilt in this endeavour by The Australian, which has jacked up the hysteria today by (among other things) running a lead news story that describes former Office of National Assessments intelligence analyst Andrew Wilkie as a “radical”.
• On Wednesday, the News Limited tabloids published a Galaxy poll of 600 voters in the rural independents’ electorates of Kennedy, New England and Lyne, which predictably showed a 52 per cent supporting a Coalition government against 36 per cent for Labor. Respondents were evenly split as to whether they wanted a fresh election. Some national polling at the moment would be uncommonly interesting.
• There has been talk of a legal challenge, or at least the possibility of one, against the election of Coalition candidates Russell Matheson in Macarthur and Natasha Griggs in Solomon, on the basis that their position as councillors runs foul of the archaic constitutional requirement that candidates not enjoy “office for profit under the Crown”. Constitutional expert George Williams has been quoted saying such a challenge would have a “one-in-four chance of winning”. Labor successfully engineered a re-match in Lindsay in similar circumstances after the 1996 election, only to have the voters respond to their sore-loser act by delivering a further 5 per cent swing to the successful Liberal candidate, Jackie Kelly.
UPDATE: Here is a link to the Brisbane late counting thread, which has dropped off the front page. I’ll come up with a more enduring solution to this issue later today.
Keep talking Fielding. Keep demanding News Ltd. Youre great assets to Labor’s cause.
What are peoples views on Labors chances at a new election? Would they be toast?
[Fielding should be ignored.]
Abbott won’t ignore him. He’ll use this in his bargaining. But if a Labor government is actually formed I don’t believe that even Fielding would block everything. Therefore the threat can be discounted.
no safe seats left, lets hung the whole parliament
It is impossible to read any new election outcome – there are too many factors in play
Abbott could only use it in his bargaining if he came out and said the Coalition will block everything if the Senate if they do not form government. This will be a very bad look.
[What are peoples views on Labors chances at a new election? Would they be toast?]
Depends on how it was “forced”. If people think they are being dragged to a needless election the party that provoked it will be punished.
Bet Sothcott’s less keen than many Fibs though, the right royal Pyne in the arse might be a bit jumpy too!
[What are peoples views on Labors chances at a new election?]
Narrow win if it could be held tomorrow. Because:
– Pathetic excuse by Liberals not to do costings
– Labor had an awful campaign; they can’t do that badly again
– Abbott had a brilliant campaign; he can’t do any better
– Visible signs that Abbott is most unsuitable for the consensus-style government that the current situation calls for
triton
You could add 2 things to your list:
Green votes returning to ALP
And down here in Boganville – how the parties play the River Issue
I may be over-optimistic, but I think that if Julia looks like she did everything possible to form a govt and it doesn’t work, she should be well placed at the next poll. Hopefully, the electorate will then feel that it has kicked labor around enough (for the knifing, for the state govts for running a stupid campaign) and has got the anger out of its system.
Julia can also present herself as someone who has taken a bruising, but learnt her lesson, etc etc. She can create a new story line.
However, I can’t see Tony creating a new story line. He’s just a bovver boy. Surely the electorate must be getting bored with him and his antics. Surely labor will be able to paint him as a wrecker, and nothing more.
But, of course, these things are very tricky. We’ll have to wait and see.
If fielding does block bills, doesn’t that just mean there will be a big back-log (which have already been debated) ready to be passed as soon as the new senate is sworn in. I know that is a delay, but not inordinately long.
ALP need to strecth out hung parliament till afetr the NSW election
it seems the options are narrowing to two (given Abbott and the Nats won’t want to be beholden to the indies)
– ALP minority gov
– fresh election (less likely)
The Greens campaign in a new election for the Reps will be interesting, they concentrated on the Senate at the last election.
Will they back Labor more now the Senate is settled?
SPROCKET – Agree. If voters can give State Labor a bashing they might really swing back to Fed Labor.
rosa, there are what is known as additional appropriation bills that will be required to go through before the Senate changeover. Theoretically the Senate could block this but I’m not sure what the consequences of this would be to the Government’s financial position.
Wilkie has already said the makeup of the Senate is not a consideration for him at all.
Bob Brown on Lateline last night said wtte that he believes coalition and parts of the media are setting the agenda for a new election.
I thought this was the case when Abbott refused to give indies costings. He does not want to be in a minority govt.
I hope the indies have a strong constitution not to be bullied by them and the media.
The longer this drags out the sooner Abbott’s mask will slip off. Bernard Keane reports that he held another press conference where he walked out once the questions got tricky. Their ABC failed to broadcast the episode, raising speculation that they’re covering for him.
[By the way, if you want conspiracy theories, why didn’t ABC News 24 broadcast it? Were they keen to ensure Abbott’s embarrassment, including his sudden departure under a hail of question from journalists, wasn’t publicly displayed?]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/08/26/theres-no-spinning-this-the-coalition-is-scared-of-scrutiny/
Cuppa
the rest of the msm should be picking up on this even if the ABC and Sly News aren’t.
Greens will back labor less, haven’t you seen how Bob is moving them the coalition’s way? Greens will also continue to run candidates in seats Labor needs to win, all to help abbott.
ABC News 24 didn’t cover Abbott’s presser for the same reason they didn’t cover numerous pressers from both sides throughout the campaign. They’re a new network overcoming teething issues, particularly in responding quickly to fresh developments. It’ll get fixed up in the coming years.
With a balanced msm, alp would romp it in if another election was held.
Well I did say that Fielding would play up. He’s an attention seeker, and was always likely to try and go out with a bang. The party should bring him into line – can’t have a rogue senator trashing the brand if they want to be successful at future elections.
pithicus, unfortunately Labor won’t have the opportunity to hold the election in another dimension.
[Narrow win if it could be held tomorrow. Because:
– Pathetic excuse by Liberals not to do costings
– Labor had an awful campaign; they can’t do that badly again
– Abbott had a brilliant campaign; he can’t do any better
– Visible signs that Abbott is most unsuitable for the consensus-style government that the current situation calls for]
Bother parties would be short of money, so wouldn’t be able to advertise as much, annd would therefore need to rely on the media exercising a greater level of scrutiiny to the proceedings. I think this situation would heavily favour Abbott given the media seem to be pushing his case.
Cuppa @ 68
[ The longer this drags out the sooner Abbott’s mask will slip off. Bernard Keane reports that he held another press conference where he walked out once the questions got tricky. Their ABC failed to broadcast the episode ]
The 7.30 Report showed Abbott walking out of his presser. I was delighted to see his simian shuffle is back.
ITEP – could the opposition legitimately block those bills?
[Well I did say that Fielding would play up. He’s an attention seeker, and was always likely to try and go out with a bang. The party should bring him into line – can’t have a rogue senator trashing the brand if they want to be successful at future elections.]
Confessions, the FF party won’t bring him into line – the party faithful would be loving it. They would see a Labor government with a Labor/Greens majority in the senate as akin to selling the country to the devil.
New election, first thing Julia does is offer to have THREE debates on the ECONOMY.
Windsor on john faine before. I cant read what way he is leaning at all. He seems totally on the fence.
We should demand that the ABC be balanced. The private enterprise media can do as they wish, but not the ABC.
The Greens wants to be the 3rd force in Australian politics, they won’t get there by being left wing, the need to get there like how the Democrats did, have a centrist role
Which means they need to work with the Liberals, if they can show that they can work with the Liberals, and keep the left votes, Australia will have a party like the Liberal Democrats in the UK
rosa, depends on your view on whether it is a legitimate action of the Senate to block supply. Ordinarily I would say it’s legitimate. Bias, in this circumstance, would lead me to say it would be an illegitimate use of power. 😉
[What are peoples views on Labors chances at a new election?]
Labor could improve if they ran a better campaign, but the influence of Arbib, Bitar, and their stupid focus groups would have to go.
A big plus would be that presumably Labor wouldn’t be stupid enough to ignore the economy and costing of coalition promises twice in a row. A big minus would be that, assuming neither side had much cash left, the Libs woudl still have Mordor Press and the miner’s cash machine.
On balance, if Labor can form a minority government they should do it. If they can’t, let Tony Abbott demand the new election; they don’t want to be seen as the spoilers dragging the voters back to choose between two unpopular candidates twice in a few months.
I cant see Fielding as ‘Kurtz’ , more likely the Dennis Hopper journalist character (no name is given).
I am sure the right wing of the ALP has plenty of FF friendly policies.
Remember how Fielding got there? Preference flow from Labor in a deal with the Victorian Branch from memory.
Useful MSM video on vote counting procedures. Reasonably accurate, except for figures on totals of provisionals (far too high in terms of votes that will actually be counted) and maybe other points. But useful: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/labor-looking-good-in-two-key-seats-20100826-13stw.html
Rosa
Gillard wants to compromise more, because she has to, or else she becomes the shortest serving Australian PM and will get blame for the loss. Once she moved against Rudd, she either had to win this election, or her political career is over.
She is desparate
What’s to say another election won’t just produce another hung parliament.
That said I would expect a narrow coalition majority.
DOVIF – I agree, which should concentrate her mind wonderfully well.
FF = Christian
Gillard = Atheist
I do not think FF supporter will be upset at Fielding
One reform I would like of the ABC is too have all sound and vision instantly, freely available.
Clearly the Libs are already working very closely with Fielding. If Labor gets to form a minority government, what chance another 1975, the withholding of post-election money bills in the Senate by the Libs with Fielding, and another constitutional stand-off, with the Libs trying to force an election?
If the apparent Lib strategy transpires this could get very ugly and USA-ish. This is about being ‘born to rule’. They no doubt hope the outcome would be as in 1975, but I have my doubts.
I know there are more pieces of legislation that comprise ‘supply’ these days because of 1975, but there must necessarily be some money bills to be passed after an election.
Fielding is a ****.
What exactly would the parties do in another election campaign? Reannounce all their policies?
It’s in Fielding’s interests to have a DD election anyway. That’s probably what all this opposition and obstruction would be leading to.
News Flash – the Miners were investing heavily while they were complaining about the mining tax. http://www.smh.com.au/business/miners-invest-big-despite-tax-20100826-13u68.html
Virginia Trioli announced this morning that public opinion is turning against the indies. Where did she get that from?
[… need to rely on the media exercising a greater level of scrutiiny to the proceedings. I think this situation would heavily favour Abbott ]
I disagree there. Greater scrutiny of Abbott (plus the flat-earthers with whom he’s surrounded) is what has been lacking all this time and allowed them to get away with murder.
There’s a rich seam of controversy if the media start digging.
Give them heaps of scrutiny I say!
[What exactly would the parties do in another election campaign? Reannounce all their policies?]
Shout at us more loudly.
[Fielding polled all of 2.7 per cent of the vote in Victoria on Saturday, yet remains a serious prospect to retain his Senate seat thanks to a disastrous electoral system that Labor has been determined not to reform.]
Indeed, William. Guys, come on – ticket voting is undemocratic SH*T. It significantly offends the most basic principle: that the voter decides.
Its the hanging chad of Australian politics.