Some day this war’s gonna end

In the meantime:

• The Australian reports the dunce of the Senate, Steve Fielding, is contemplating adding constitutional vandal to the extensive list of black marks against his name. Fielding polled all of 2.7 per cent of the vote in Victoria on Saturday, yet remains a serious prospect to retain his Senate seat thanks to a disastrous electoral system that Labor has been determined not to reform.

• Today’s Sydney Morning Herald editorial offers some fascinating speculation about Tony Abbott’s tactics in the past few days. The paper’s national editor, Mark Davis, detects a high-stakes game with the objective of final victory at a fresh election. It is evident he will be backed to the hilt in this endeavour by The Australian, which has jacked up the hysteria today by (among other things) running a lead news story that describes former Office of National Assessments intelligence analyst Andrew Wilkie as a “radical”.

• On Wednesday, the News Limited tabloids published a Galaxy poll of 600 voters in the rural independents’ electorates of Kennedy, New England and Lyne, which predictably showed a 52 per cent supporting a Coalition government against 36 per cent for Labor. Respondents were evenly split as to whether they wanted a fresh election. Some national polling at the moment would be uncommonly interesting.

• There has been talk of a legal challenge, or at least the possibility of one, against the election of Coalition candidates Russell Matheson in Macarthur and Natasha Griggs in Solomon, on the basis that their position as councillors runs foul of the archaic constitutional requirement that candidates not enjoy “office for profit under the Crown”. Constitutional expert George Williams has been quoted saying such a challenge would have a “one-in-four chance of winning”. Labor successfully engineered a re-match in Lindsay in similar circumstances after the 1996 election, only to have the voters respond to their sore-loser act by delivering a further 5 per cent swing to the successful Liberal candidate, Jackie Kelly.

UPDATE: Here is a link to the Brisbane late counting thread, which has dropped off the front page. I’ll come up with a more enduring solution to this issue later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Some day this war’s gonna end”

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  1. [New election, first thing Julia does is offer to have THREE debates on the ECONOMY.]
    Indeed. Perhaps with Jospeh Stiglitz as guest moderator? Thouhg competence and subject knowledge sems to be frowned upon in the media these days… its a wonder Antony Green keeps his job! (said with love, Anthony 🙂 )

  2. The Greens wants to be the 3rd force in Australian politics, they won’t get there by being left wing, the need to get there like how the Democrats did, have a centrist role

    They will have to drop support for CC action to move into the Senate. Bob Brown, I think, would be happy to do that. Milne won’t tho.

  4. Socrates or Boerwar – can you explain this comment in crikey please. Is this the cost the taxpayer will give businesses if Abbott’s plan is adopted?

    [“Having done some basic costing work on the proposed Direct Action Policy on Climate Change back in March when it was released, the effective $/tonne cost of emissions reduction in that paper was well in excess of $2,000 – and that was just on the “costable” numbers.

    I wouldn’t want that held up to scrutiny when any form of carbon price = “great big new tax”, would you?”]
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/08/26/theres-no-spinning-this-the-coalition-is-scared-of-scrutiny/

  5. OK hypothetical on Fielding’s proposed stunt:

    How would the media react if the Greens said they’ll do the same to Phoney?

    hmmm?? Anyone, Shannas? Obviously that’s fine as a tactic is it? Where’s your condemnation of Fielding?

    That guy is ‘son of chad’: the randomly generated nightmare, no one ever voted for this dimwitted turd, and now he’s here to DESTROY!

  8. Incredible that Fielding thinks he has a responsibility to destabilise a Labor government on the basis that they don’t have the public support. Fielding himself has so little support that he couldn’t garner re-election to the senate … what sort of mandate is that, Steve?

  9. [but the influence of Arbib, Bitar, and their stupid focus groups would have to go.]

    You would hope they’ve learned quite a bit from the last five weeks.

    [If Labor gets to form a minority government, what chance another 1975, the withholding of post-election money bills in the Senate by the Libs with Fielding, and another constitutional stand-off, with the Libs trying to force an election?]

    The difference is that voters already wanted to punish Labor by November 1975; Fraser just gave them the opportunity. After an even election Abbott would need a shocking cock-up by the government to justify blocking supply or he’d just be seen as a spoiler.

  10. Morning, Bludgers!

    After last night’s segment, where Bracks & Greiner talked sensibly about experiences negotiating and working with minority governments, I recalled spectacular public People are waking up, asking themselves, ‘What have I done? This was not supposed to happen!’ meltdowns following Atkinson’s 1991 loss of Brisbane City Council and Kennett’s 1999 Vic loss a, and public backlashes: BCC ALP until ’04; Vic ALP won post-poll by-election & is still ALP.

    So, what assumption could one make? Voters take a strong, long dislike to any party refusing to accept their decision, even if it’s a hung parliament. After all, that’s the electorate’s choice & not “unprecedented”, so they expect Abbott and Gillard to follow recent examples – Greiner (NSW), Borbidge (Q), Beattie (Q), Rann (SA), Bracks (V), Bartlett (T) – and negotiate a minority government.

    But it seems Murdoch’s mob and the Lib Right want to force Australia back to the polls, so they can get it right next time, as I recall a bigwig making re Vic 1999.

    Bring it on, I say!

    It will give the nation’s voters, who are now seeing just how petulant Abbott and Robb are over handing over their election platform’s costings, and

    Mr Katter said: ”Every person in Australia at the present moment believes he’s got something to hide. I mean, I think he’s been very ill-advised to take this stand.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/abbott-offers-new-excuse-on-costings-20100826-13u5k.html?autostart=1#

    They might also be starting to ask themselves Why are Murdoch papers running such spectacular demands that either Abbott’s Coalition gets government or there must be a new election? What’s in it for them? especially since the ABC’s Abbott Fanatic stance seems to have moderated since the election.

    Today, Lenore Taylor (SMH) asserts:

    The Coalition is really worried that Treasury will come up with a different – bigger – answer to what its policies will cost, which would be a big disadvantage when it came to re-running the ”debt and deficit” argument in another election campaign.

    especially since

    It’s strange that this one leak has apparently, in the Coalition’s view, tainted an entire central agency of the bureaucracy, while the flood of leaks to the Coalition from their ”mole” Godwin Grech apparently did not.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-doesnt-want-to-reach-a-deal-he-wants-another-election-20100826-13u9p.html

    How long before questions about the looming demise of Howard-stacked ABC & SBS Boards, and the coming retirement of HCA judges are asked?

    Maybe this is now, or is rapidly becoming, a time when voters really do want another election to get it right this time. It may very well be a severe punishment for Abbott and the Coalition!

  11. ltep
    [They’re a new network overcoming teething issues, particularly in responding quickly to fresh developments. It’ll get fixed up in the coming years.]
    ABC 24 to be fixed up in years????

    Surely not!

  13. rosa
    [Fielding proves there is no god – or if there is, his workmanship is very faulty at times]
    Or He has a wicked sense of humour 😀

  15. If you accept the theory (which I’ve just invented) that Tone’s mutant aggression and body sculpting is to hide a basic lack of confidence, then it is quite possible that, sub-consciously at least, he doesn’t want to become Prime Minister. He would rather be the eternal opposition leader, popping jabs at the govt. Is it possible that, in his heart of hearts, Tone knows he’s just not up to the job, and is busy, sub-conciously at least, trying to wreck his chances of ever becoming PM?

  17. i wonder if the 24 will last, there is more exciting things to see on the children’s Chanel i find that our when my granddaughter is here on a Friday.

    Why would you watch it, its plain boring. Give me ‘Postman Pat’ any day

  18. [Okay, so Labor doesn’t have the numbers unless a Lib crosses the floor. So the question remains; who does Labor have half a shot with? Who can potentially be induced to sit on the “Labor” side of the equation with the offer of a Ministry or whatever?

    Is there anyone who would be both an asset to a Labor government in terms of their skills and knowledge who is ALSO likely to consider such a proposal? Any ideas?]

    Judith Troeth is the only Lib senator I have much time for. Sorry if I’m not keeping up, I’m not a well woman today.

  20. Nice rational piece with a bit of parliamentary history today from Richard Ackland.
    This is the sort of information that should be rammed down the MSM journalists’ throats – especially News Ltd’s, so they might leave off all the misleading big party entitlement and ‘stability’ rubbish.

    When you look at the weight of the MSM discussion in this situation, it can be clearly seen how closely it is embedded with the two big parties – entirely intermeshed.

    It’s largely because it’s what they’re used to, and their personal allegiances, but they have a responsibility to get this factual information out there, so as not to inflame the situation:

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/cut-the-big-parties-down-to-size-and-reform-can-blossom-20100826-13u38.html

  21. [Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 9:37 am | Permalink
    Fielding:
    “Look at me! Look at me!. Christ on crutches!”
    Who does the pr**k think he is]

    did he fall under a bus

  22. rosa: It’s all about the contest with Tone. Once the contest is over, he looks for a new contest. Seems he’s found one with Treasury and the indies.

  23. Dovif

    [The Greens wants to be the 3rd force in Australian politics, they won’t get there by being left wing, the need to get there like how the Democrats did, have a centrist role

    Which means they need to work with the Liberals, if they can show that they can work with the Liberals, and keep the left votes, Australia will have a party like the Liberal Democrats in the UK]

    The Greens already ARE the 3rd force in Australian politics. If they work with the Libs – under Abbott at least – they will lose members and votes, starting with me and my family.

  24. [122 confessions
    Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 9:40 am | Permalink
    rosa: It’s all about the contest with Tone. Once the contest is over, he looks for a new contest. Seems he’s found one with Treasury and the ]

    if forced to a new election can the opp, choose a new leader before that date.???

  26. Dovif that’s malarky- The greens get votes from ALP left flank. if they move to the centre then why vote green. they’ll just vote ALP.

  29. The Australian has an attack piece on Rob Oakeshott today where they point out his closeness to Labor and the ‘gloss’ that has come off of him since he joined Parliament in 2008. They include the fact that a NSW Labor State MP handed out how to vote cards for him on election day and the fact that his electorate was visited by a number of senior Labor ministers in the past 18 months.

  30. Okay. So according to AEC the HOR is –

    Labor 72 – Green 1 – Coalition 72 + WA Nat 1 – 4 Indies.

    So what’s the senate’s final result?. I know there was one seat in doubt, whether it would go to the DLP or the Libs.

    Please oh please tell me that Fielding is gone from July 1 – that he has NOT retained his seat.

  31. OzPol Tragic @ 110

    Lenore Taylor’s article is one of the few intelligent pieces I’ve read in the MSM since before this campaign began.

    Fran Kelly had the guy from the AEC on this morning. She actually asked him some sensible questions but you could sense here heart was hoping he’d say something a bit controversial. She asked, eg, about what sort of election we would have to have (House only, half-Senate etc) would have to be held if things ended up a split down the middle. He said he’d leave that one to the constitutional layers.

    By the way, does anyone know of a support group for people like me who have sworn off the MSM and ABC news particularly, yet, like a drug dependency, I just have to keep going back to them. 🙂 It’s easier giving up chocolate!

  33. Fibs change leader, hahaha when do I stop laughing if they try that?

    Fielding, hanging chads well the hanging sounds good, can he just not stand his cross to bear?

    I do not know any Greens who would support any decision by them to lean to Abbot, that would be electoral suicide for the Greens.

  34. We won’t be sure of the Senate results in a couple of states for weeks now. As William points out, Fielding is still a chance in Victoria. Others have cited the fact that there’s an outside chance of Family First getting up in SA as well at the expense of David Fawcett.

  36. Thanks on your post OzPolTragic

    and thanks Musrum

    for posting link to Glenn Milne. Who would have thought he could make sense.

  39. Musrum

    we are definitely living in a pararrel universe. Ted Ballieu OL of Liberal Party of State Victoria said that poor poll result for his party was due to the Federal election!

  42. i am not sure about new election the qld dont seem to understand they are holding the country backwards

    would they do anything different.

    the msm would be the same no i hope it can be worked out in our favour of course
    then may be we can go in good direction, but one wonders
    I think the best thing about the Tasmania situation was that the greens pledged not to go with the liberals in votes of no confidence.

    I think every day would be a worry day what will the independents do on issues.

    and as i said the liberals tried it the first sitting day, but of course the greens kept their word, i thought that was quite silly of the lib to do that we haven’t for gotten.

    also with Wilkie if we the Tasmanians had wanted a liberal ( re his choice) well we would of voted liberal but we did not not.

    So i hope he thinks about that one.

    what is the state play with the costing re abbott

  43. my say

    Abbott has refused to submit costings on basis that they don’t trust Treasury until Leaker found. Obviously this is just an excuse. He doesn’t want costings exposed.

    News Ltd is pushing for a coalition govt or a new election.

    The indies will make their own decision hopefully sometime during the next week.

    We have to be patient.

  44. I’m sure the WA Govt just love’s Katter’s plan. It would take all their royalties from mining away at one stroke by the look of the map in the article.

    I faintly remember a push in the late 60’s for two new states to be formed, New England (north-eastern NSW) and Capricornia (basically Cairns (possibly Townsville) region and up to the Cape). Does anyone else recall this or am I showing signs of early dotage?

  45. [The independents should add an eighth claim that the fibs ditch phoney and put a grown up in his place.]

    Andrew Elder is imploring Joe Hockey to stand up.

  46. My say re costings, the Rabbit has taken his bat & ball home & is still refusing to play ball, the bat is still out though

  48. Apparently Graham Morris is negotiating on behalf of the Tories and Hawker is negotiating with the indies on behalf of Labor.

  49. [The independents should add an eighth claim that the fibs ditch phoney and put a grown up in his place]

    I think the Lib’s current behaviour is particularly hilarious given their final week slogan was to urge voters to install a “grown-up government”.

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