Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Minority report
With the final result still uncertain but increasingly looking like Liberal/National 73, Labor 72, independents four and Greens one, it’s time for a new thread.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Steve – do you know with which party (LIB or NAT) each of the QLD LNP members will sit?
Dee at 34: Anyone who thinks that the conservative independents will automatically support a Lib/Nat/LNP/WA Nat neo-con conglomerate is dreaming.
From ABC news:
TONY ABBOTT: Again I’d point to my record. As leader of the house I changed the way the matter of public importance debate worked to ensure that the independents had a say.
TONY WINDSOR: He seems to have changed though. He seems to have changed.
SAMANTHA HAWLEY: Tony Windsor was listening in to Tony Abbott’s press conference.
TONY WINDSOR: Mr Abbott was talking about his great love of parliamentary reform. Some of the indications there were somewhat different to when he was manager of government business. And he changed the procedural rules in terms of matters of public importance to take me out of the game. So… (laughs).
Maybe that will qualify as good news for you?
If Katter is the deciding vote in whoever forms government, I think we might be heading back to the polls sooner than we think.
FYI Based on what I’ve read from Windsor and Oakeshott’s media releases, speeches etc, I think Windsor is 55/45 likely to side with the Coaltion (He has worked well with Tony Abbott on health which he identifies is a big issue for his electorate) whereas I think Oakeshott is 60/40 likely to side with the ALP (to keep the investment in his community infrastructure going and specifically the NBN).
[They could have a House only election at any time.]
Only if the GG agrees. How long would it take for a PM to be able to convince the GG that parliament is unworkable and an election is required?
The crap being spoken on here involves calling the result of the election well before it is known.
Not that I want to venture too far into the Rudd discussion, but I’ve heard Labor were even worried about losing the safe seat of Canberra under Rudd. There was a deep loathing of Kevin Rudd in the public sector.
We’ll never know. The important thing is that the party didn’t believe Rudd could win and that he wasn’t the best person to lead them. Rudd knew he no longer had the support so resigned. The party needs to live with this choice and move on.
41 – Spot on they seem to think being the first one term government since the depression was quite an acceptable result because Abbott was denied an absolute majority – harm minimisation is now apparently the goal of ALP campaigns.
[The crap being spoken on here involves calling the result of the election well before it is known.]
Yes, but at least we know it was lousy at least for Labor.
If Henderson gets the same percent for the rest of the postals she will end up about 150 votes ahead of Cheeseman, though the absentees, provisionals and pre polls still needed to be counted.
This one might end up in courts with several recounts
[I don’t know Frank from Adam, but he is spot on about what would have happened in WA if Rudd had been retained.]
Who care, if retention of Rudd has minimise the losses in Qld. 2 losses in Qld and saving 6 or 7 and losing all 4 WA seats would still have shown a profit.
Fargo it was in the LNP constitution they could sit in either. I have no idea where the new member for Longman for example would sit. I get the impression he would want to play with the Liberal party room in Canberra rather than a dying National Party room.
My thanks to itep, Steve, Gweneth & Goshome.
Oakeshott and Windsor both appeared on 7.30 tonight saying they did not consider 76 seats was enough to offer stability. Katter declared for all to hear that his electorate had never been conservative. The logic of this is they may prepared to add their numbers to Labor because with Wilkie and Bandt, (who supposedly will not support the Liberals) Labor would then have 77 votes – enough to provide a speaker and still have a workable majority with the Liberals on 72 and 1 additional WA Nat on the cross benches.
I can see why the trio would not want to support any arrangement which put their sworn enemies – the Nationals – into power, while they are elected with the help of Labor votes.
By contrast, if they support the Liberals, the total will be 76. After providing a speaker, the Liberals would have a notional 75 seats, but one of their number , the WA Nat has promised to sit on the cross benches, leaving the Liberals with 74 votes, the same as Labor, Bandt and Wilkie. Parliament would be essentially unworkable from Day 1. The novice WA Nat would essentially be given a casting vote on every division.
The practicality of this situation is that the Independents will either bring about a new election forthwith, or they will support Labor.
[Yes, but at least we know it was lousy at least for Labor.]
The opposition should have killed Labor this election and would have under Rudd. Also Abbott wasn’t exactly Mr. Popular. Labor has a problem all right but let’s not white wash the Libs either.
deewhytony
[Can’t be all bad – looks like my local member is going to be PM.
Maybe he will honour his promise]
Has to be a first time.
The AEC are bonly reporting two seats as being Close
[Maybe that will qualify as good news for you?]
Thanks!
Gary
We have had so many highs & lows & everything appears to be going the Libs way.
I hope we get some better polling results tomorrow but according to those in the know on here that is highly unlikely.
We can only hope but we do have to prepare ourselves for the worst.
As if it wasn’t bad enough. 🙂
It’s Time, the PM doesn’t need to convince the GG that the house is unworkable for a House only election to be held. The only restraint as to timing is the 3 year limit. It’s only when considering a double dissolution that the GG will consider the workability of the parliament as a whole.
There could be a case where a PM is denied a house election until he can prove he still maintains the support of the House, but this would be a controversial decision.
The election may have been lousy for labor, but the other mob hardly did any better. Maybe a few questions should be asked about their dismal failure in a few states.
And as for changing leaders and instability, which party has had four leaders in three years?
Briefly at 62: Yes, and the independents will not want to bring on an early election if they can help it because they are certainly not stupid.
Hell – Corangamite is starting to become a real worry.
[Do you count Corangamite in that count. The results are looking very much like a liberal win based on the ALP picking up only 40% of the declaration votes.]
Labor are only picking up 40% of postal votes (42.33 per cent actually). They will do a lot better on absents.
By the denial on this thread from some Labor hacks, they don’t vene think there was a problem.
The split on PB as to which party loyalists:
1. remain with Arbib mafia proposing business as usual (BAU) as they do with climate change, on the one hand; and
2. go to the Faulkner, Tanner, McTiernan, and Albo camp among many others who believe the party must have a very rough and searching pull-through with many casualties,
will be almost as fascinating as the parliamentary outcome. I’ve seen a couple of Arbib deserters running off without their swags today. Also seen some denialists still loyal to the Arbib crew.
They will do a lot better on absents.
On what basis do you say that?
Labor are still looking OK to hold Corangamite. The proportion of postals has been going down as their counted. I think the first batch were more pro-Liberal than the second two which has distorted it a bit.
itsthevibe
You can’t abstain from a vote in the HoR. If you are in the chamber, you must vote.
For practical purposes, abstaining would mean that one party ends up with one vote more than the other, so even by absenting himself from the chamber he would be making a decision which would determine the government.
I say let have another election in 3 weeks. Is there a Newspoll tonight?
Itep @67 didn’t you mean “she” maintains the support of the house? 🙂
[You can’t abstain from a vote in the HoR. If you are in the chamber, you must vote.]
This isn’t true. You can abstain so long as you didn’t call for the division (if you do and then leave the chamber it is a contempt). You also cannot leave the chamber if a quorum has been called for.
zoomster @ 75
You can “abstain” by not being in the HoR when a vote is being taken, however, it is extremely unlikely that in the current state of affairs and numbers either side will back down on numbers.
[The opposition should have killed Labor this election and would have under Rudd. Also Abbott wasn’t exactly Mr. Popular. Labor has a problem all right but let’s not white wash the Libs either.]
Exactly, the Libs and their leader are totally dysfunctional, that’s why this result is so bad for Labor. If it’s not then it must have been a really bad government.
By people going on about how much worse it would have been under Rudd, despite being hard to prove (you can’t with published polls), may be some comfort, but it just says to everyone else that this Labor government was a disaster, that it makes even this result look OK.
But then that’s what Labor supporters have been saying since they thought dumping their PM was justified.
I have been a rusted on ALP voter. I have never voted anything but ALP in State, federal or local. I live in Griffith. This time I just could not bring myself to vote for Rudd, so I voted a straight Green ticket. I can’t understand why people are still bemoaning the fact that he was ousted by “Faceless Unelected Men” who are neither faceless nor unelected.
Labour lost because they lost their focus and lost sight of what they stand for.
As far as I am concerned Rudd is a weak, indecisive cry-baby who has no place being in politics, he should retire and become part of the elite warmongering International Elite. That is where he belongs.
I have no respect left for Julia either, despite believing that she an impressive and formidable Intellect. She does not understand that many of her base supporters do not take kindly to her toadying up to disgusting military Apartheid Regimes like Israel. I can’t think of any Regime that continuously uses military aircraft and troops to attack built-up civilian areas under its control and occupation over decades. She lost me when she insisted on leading that “Bi-partisan group of Australian Leaders” to Israel. If this is the ALP, they can keep it; I have just about had it with them.
The nightmare however is about Abbott as PM, Howard as Governor General, and Alex Downer as US Ambassador. Imagine how many wars Australia can fight riding on the US tigers back, with that lot in power
The positive for the ALP is that the ***shit is about to hit the fan economically. The ALP in power would just try to work their “economic miracle” again and waste Billions trying to play King Canute holding back the tide. It won’t work a second time.
They should take their chops, regroup, assassinate a few of the dead flotsam, and work a new generation into position. The ALP has worked me outside the fold. They will have to make some serious changes to get me off the protest vote bandwagon. I am enjoying the carnage, even if I have to put up with Fascist running the place again. Nihilism seems to be the only good option. Thank you for listening.
A Quorum is only legal if 75% of the parties are present. You cannot however leave if you were present in the HoR when it was called. THAT would be a contempt.
[On what basis do you say that?]
Because that’s what happened last time: Labor got 51.75 per cent of the ordinary vote and 54.96 per cent of absents. A large proportion of absent votes are actually cast in booths just over the boundary, which in Corangamite can only mean Geelong.
Based on outstanding Declaration Votes and the percentage allocated to date
Huslack LNP by 1,500 votes
Corangamite LNP by 100 Votes
But it wasn’t a bad government! This government had the best economy from the GFC. The BER is “in reality” a success.It actually cared about health.
Even the mining tax from purely a policy point of views isnt all bad.
I think that’s what jiffs some here, a government like that for beaten by Tony.
[Don’t you mean Liberal/National/LNP ?]
Surely that is at the very least “Don’t you mean Liberal/National/LNP/CLP” ?
Calling a member of the CLP a “Liberal” used to be a hanging offence in the NT! (well, just about!)
(While I’m on the subject I remember literally walking into Russell Hinze once at Alice Springs Airport after he was there for one of the Country Party’s conferences on the SE Australian “Axis of Evil”, which at that stage in their view included all of those “socialists” and “communists” like Malcolm Fraser, John Howard, Bill Hayden, John Hewson, etc. It was one of those unnerving experiences that you wonder if you will ever emerge from. Like being sucked into a vast blancmange.!)
If I am right in my musings @ 62, above, the key person in all this is Andrew Wilkie. Has he expressed any leanings one way or another?
One thing is for sure too. If the people of New England do not want Tony Windsor as their MP, he would be very welcome in just about any constituency in WA, whether conservative or not.
Frank, your mate Allanah, gave a good old fashioned spray to the campaigning geniuses who seem to be quite a protected species here on PB at the moment.
[Before Saturday’s federal election, Labor’s one great hope of picking up a seat in Western Australia was Canning. Its candidate, former State Labor Minister Allanah MacTiernan, was highly fancied to take the seat from Liberal Don Randall. She achieved a swing of more than three per cent but still came up short. Allanah MacTiernan says Labor ran a scare campaign and candidates were instructed not to sell the mining tax. ]
So ‘The Piping Shrike’ @ 80 you think we shouldn’t have supported Keating after he took out Hawke? I think Gillard is our PM and she is excellent. I believe Hawke was a great PM, Keating was a clever PM, Rudd was the PM we needed to cruch Howard, and Gillard is the best person to be PM for the future of the Labor Movement.
The Piping Shrike
It sounds like you’re arguing the government was a disaster.
Agree with Briefly at 62: if its 73-72-4-1 only the ALP can offer the independents 77 in the parliament: majority plus a speaker.
May be a factor. May not.
Love to see a 73rd ALP seat somewhere though. My money’s on Bevis!
oh dear, mad monk is now all soft and cuddly. Can i take him home?
[I’m quite worried about Wilkie. People seem to assume that he will lean to the left, but I’m not sure. There is actually a possibility that Wilkie may be the 4th amigo if the inds turn to Abbott. Interesting times though given his views on refugees and the war.]
If Wilkie is serious about his requirement of “ethical” govt how can he seriously contemplate backing a self confessed liar Tony Abbott.
A few things that went wrong for the ALP:
1. Spending millions of dollars on a postal vote campaign. Party-political postal votes must be legislated out by a returned ALP government. What a waste.
2. The leaks.
3. A complex (yet vague?) and changing message – no clear direction or theme (… stop the boats, end the waste, etc)
4. Not concentrating on the economy until weeks 4 and 5. Very stupid.
5. No visionary policy – I know we have no money, but we looked stupid promising $2 billion for a rail line in outer-sydney when we could have made a visionary policy announcement on something more worth-while that didn’t alienate the rest of the country (ie, QLD)
6. The election was too early. It should have been October.
If the ALP had won Moreton in 1961 then things would have been very interesting because there would have been 61 seats elected from states each and the 2 territory seats could only vote on territory specific votes. I believe they could not be elected Speaker either so the ALP could not have secured a with Speaker majority by electing one of them Speaker. The Coalition had a majority in the Senate so Liberal support would have been needed for a bill to allow the territory MPs to vote on non-territory matters.
There would have been an argument over who provided the Speaker (you provide a Speaker, no you provide a Speaker). The nearest seats on the pendulum were Bennelong and Maribyrnong at 0.8% and Lowe was 3rd at 0.9% (McMahon was nearly defeated in 1961).
It is a great shame that the ALP did not win in 1961.
GG most likely will not be interested in horse-trading. She simply continues Gillard’s commission. Parliament can work out for itself whether it wants to change the government. A Speaker will be appointed as the first act of the Parliament. Presumably the person nominated by Gillard will be elected. If Abbott moves a motion of no-confidence, a vote will be taken on the floor of the house. If not, it’s business as usual.
This is a scenario suggested to me. Not sure how valid this scenario is.
Look at 2007 results for Corangamite for example (similar in many
other electorates).
ALP gets 55% of the absents, but only 43% of the postals
in a seat where they got only 51% overall.
Briefly at 86: Wilkie has been very careful since Saturday to stay neutral, and he managed to dodge the media all day today. His previous record is as Liberal and then Green; however he has massive baggage after being done over by Howard & Downer for his whistle-blower role.
Wilkie was a card carrying young Lib in Tassie, why are you so surprised ‘the spectator’ @92?
Steve – do you know with which party (LIB or NAT) each of the QLD LNP members will sit?
Dee at 34: Anyone who thinks that the conservative independents will automatically support a Lib/Nat/LNP/WA Nat neo-con conglomerate is dreaming.
From ABC news:
TONY ABBOTT: Again I’d point to my record. As leader of the house I changed the way the matter of public importance debate worked to ensure that the independents had a say.
TONY WINDSOR: He seems to have changed though. He seems to have changed.
SAMANTHA HAWLEY: Tony Windsor was listening in to Tony Abbott’s press conference.
TONY WINDSOR: Mr Abbott was talking about his great love of parliamentary reform. Some of the indications there were somewhat different to when he was manager of government business. And he changed the procedural rules in terms of matters of public importance to take me out of the game. So… (laughs).
Maybe that will qualify as good news for you?
If Katter is the deciding vote in whoever forms government, I think we might be heading back to the polls sooner than we think.
FYI Based on what I’ve read from Windsor and Oakeshott’s media releases, speeches etc, I think Windsor is 55/45 likely to side with the Coaltion (He has worked well with Tony Abbott on health which he identifies is a big issue for his electorate) whereas I think Oakeshott is 60/40 likely to side with the ALP (to keep the investment in his community infrastructure going and specifically the NBN).
[They could have a House only election at any time.]
Only if the GG agrees. How long would it take for a PM to be able to convince the GG that parliament is unworkable and an election is required?
The crap being spoken on here involves calling the result of the election well before it is known.
Not that I want to venture too far into the Rudd discussion, but I’ve heard Labor were even worried about losing the safe seat of Canberra under Rudd. There was a deep loathing of Kevin Rudd in the public sector.
We’ll never know. The important thing is that the party didn’t believe Rudd could win and that he wasn’t the best person to lead them. Rudd knew he no longer had the support so resigned. The party needs to live with this choice and move on.
41 – Spot on they seem to think being the first one term government since the depression was quite an acceptable result because Abbott was denied an absolute majority – harm minimisation is now apparently the goal of ALP campaigns.
[The crap being spoken on here involves calling the result of the election well before it is known.]
Yes, but at least we know it was lousy at least for Labor.
If Henderson gets the same percent for the rest of the postals she will end up about 150 votes ahead of Cheeseman, though the absentees, provisionals and pre polls still needed to be counted.
This one might end up in courts with several recounts
[I don’t know Frank from Adam, but he is spot on about what would have happened in WA if Rudd had been retained.]
Who care, if retention of Rudd has minimise the losses in Qld. 2 losses in Qld and saving 6 or 7 and losing all 4 WA seats would still have shown a profit.
Fargo it was in the LNP constitution they could sit in either. I have no idea where the new member for Longman for example would sit. I get the impression he would want to play with the Liberal party room in Canberra rather than a dying National Party room.
My thanks to itep, Steve, Gweneth & Goshome.
Oakeshott and Windsor both appeared on 7.30 tonight saying they did not consider 76 seats was enough to offer stability. Katter declared for all to hear that his electorate had never been conservative. The logic of this is they may prepared to add their numbers to Labor because with Wilkie and Bandt, (who supposedly will not support the Liberals) Labor would then have 77 votes – enough to provide a speaker and still have a workable majority with the Liberals on 72 and 1 additional WA Nat on the cross benches.
I can see why the trio would not want to support any arrangement which put their sworn enemies – the Nationals – into power, while they are elected with the help of Labor votes.
By contrast, if they support the Liberals, the total will be 76. After providing a speaker, the Liberals would have a notional 75 seats, but one of their number , the WA Nat has promised to sit on the cross benches, leaving the Liberals with 74 votes, the same as Labor, Bandt and Wilkie. Parliament would be essentially unworkable from Day 1. The novice WA Nat would essentially be given a casting vote on every division.
The practicality of this situation is that the Independents will either bring about a new election forthwith, or they will support Labor.
[Yes, but at least we know it was lousy at least for Labor.]
The opposition should have killed Labor this election and would have under Rudd. Also Abbott wasn’t exactly Mr. Popular. Labor has a problem all right but let’s not white wash the Libs either.
deewhytony
[Can’t be all bad – looks like my local member is going to be PM.
Maybe he will honour his promise]
Has to be a first time.
The AEC are bonly reporting two seats as being Close
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-15508-NAT.htm
Seat – Total Declartion Votes Issued.
VIC Corangamite – 17,011 LNP 57% ALP 42%
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-15508-207.htm
WA Hasluck -17,209 LNP 52% ALP 47%
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-15508-305.htm
[Maybe that will qualify as good news for you?]
Thanks!
Gary
We have had so many highs & lows & everything appears to be going the Libs way.
I hope we get some better polling results tomorrow but according to those in the know on here that is highly unlikely.
We can only hope but we do have to prepare ourselves for the worst.
As if it wasn’t bad enough. 🙂
It’s Time, the PM doesn’t need to convince the GG that the house is unworkable for a House only election to be held. The only restraint as to timing is the 3 year limit. It’s only when considering a double dissolution that the GG will consider the workability of the parliament as a whole.
There could be a case where a PM is denied a house election until he can prove he still maintains the support of the House, but this would be a controversial decision.
The election may have been lousy for labor, but the other mob hardly did any better. Maybe a few questions should be asked about their dismal failure in a few states.
And as for changing leaders and instability, which party has had four leaders in three years?
Briefly at 62: Yes, and the independents will not want to bring on an early election if they can help it because they are certainly not stupid.
Hell – Corangamite is starting to become a real worry.
[Do you count Corangamite in that count. The results are looking very much like a liberal win based on the ALP picking up only 40% of the declaration votes.]
Labor are only picking up 40% of postal votes (42.33 per cent actually). They will do a lot better on absents.
The Piping Shrike@41
The split on PB as to which party loyalists:
1. remain with Arbib mafia proposing business as usual (BAU) as they do with climate change, on the one hand; and
2. go to the Faulkner, Tanner, McTiernan, and Albo camp among many others who believe the party must have a very rough and searching pull-through with many casualties,
will be almost as fascinating as the parliamentary outcome. I’ve seen a couple of Arbib deserters running off without their swags today. Also seen some denialists still loyal to the Arbib crew.
They will do a lot better on absents.
On what basis do you say that?
Labor are still looking OK to hold Corangamite. The proportion of postals has been going down as their counted. I think the first batch were more pro-Liberal than the second two which has distorted it a bit.
itsthevibe
You can’t abstain from a vote in the HoR. If you are in the chamber, you must vote.
For practical purposes, abstaining would mean that one party ends up with one vote more than the other, so even by absenting himself from the chamber he would be making a decision which would determine the government.
I say let have another election in 3 weeks. Is there a Newspoll tonight?
Itep @67 didn’t you mean “she” maintains the support of the house? 🙂
[You can’t abstain from a vote in the HoR. If you are in the chamber, you must vote.]
This isn’t true. You can abstain so long as you didn’t call for the division (if you do and then leave the chamber it is a contempt). You also cannot leave the chamber if a quorum has been called for.
zoomster @ 75
You can “abstain” by not being in the HoR when a vote is being taken, however, it is extremely unlikely that in the current state of affairs and numbers either side will back down on numbers.
[The opposition should have killed Labor this election and would have under Rudd. Also Abbott wasn’t exactly Mr. Popular. Labor has a problem all right but let’s not white wash the Libs either.]
Exactly, the Libs and their leader are totally dysfunctional, that’s why this result is so bad for Labor. If it’s not then it must have been a really bad government.
By people going on about how much worse it would have been under Rudd, despite being hard to prove (you can’t with published polls), may be some comfort, but it just says to everyone else that this Labor government was a disaster, that it makes even this result look OK.
But then that’s what Labor supporters have been saying since they thought dumping their PM was justified.
I have been a rusted on ALP voter. I have never voted anything but ALP in State, federal or local. I live in Griffith. This time I just could not bring myself to vote for Rudd, so I voted a straight Green ticket. I can’t understand why people are still bemoaning the fact that he was ousted by “Faceless Unelected Men” who are neither faceless nor unelected.
Labour lost because they lost their focus and lost sight of what they stand for.
As far as I am concerned Rudd is a weak, indecisive cry-baby who has no place being in politics, he should retire and become part of the elite warmongering International Elite. That is where he belongs.
I have no respect left for Julia either, despite believing that she an impressive and formidable Intellect. She does not understand that many of her base supporters do not take kindly to her toadying up to disgusting military Apartheid Regimes like Israel. I can’t think of any Regime that continuously uses military aircraft and troops to attack built-up civilian areas under its control and occupation over decades. She lost me when she insisted on leading that “Bi-partisan group of Australian Leaders” to Israel. If this is the ALP, they can keep it; I have just about had it with them.
The nightmare however is about Abbott as PM, Howard as Governor General, and Alex Downer as US Ambassador. Imagine how many wars Australia can fight riding on the US tigers back, with that lot in power
The positive for the ALP is that the ***shit is about to hit the fan economically. The ALP in power would just try to work their “economic miracle” again and waste Billions trying to play King Canute holding back the tide. It won’t work a second time.
They should take their chops, regroup, assassinate a few of the dead flotsam, and work a new generation into position. The ALP has worked me outside the fold. They will have to make some serious changes to get me off the protest vote bandwagon. I am enjoying the carnage, even if I have to put up with Fascist running the place again. Nihilism seems to be the only good option. Thank you for listening.
A Quorum is only legal if 75% of the parties are present. You cannot however leave if you were present in the HoR when it was called. THAT would be a contempt.
[On what basis do you say that?]
Because that’s what happened last time: Labor got 51.75 per cent of the ordinary vote and 54.96 per cent of absents. A large proportion of absent votes are actually cast in booths just over the boundary, which in Corangamite can only mean Geelong.
Based on outstanding Declaration Votes and the percentage allocated to date
Huslack LNP by 1,500 votes
Corangamite LNP by 100 Votes
But it wasn’t a bad government! This government had the best economy from the GFC. The BER is “in reality” a success.It actually cared about health.
Even the mining tax from purely a policy point of views isnt all bad.
I think that’s what jiffs some here, a government like that for beaten by Tony.
[Don’t you mean Liberal/National/LNP ?]
Surely that is at the very least “Don’t you mean Liberal/National/LNP/CLP” ?
Calling a member of the CLP a “Liberal” used to be a hanging offence in the NT! (well, just about!)
(While I’m on the subject I remember literally walking into Russell Hinze once at Alice Springs Airport after he was there for one of the Country Party’s conferences on the SE Australian “Axis of Evil”, which at that stage in their view included all of those “socialists” and “communists” like Malcolm Fraser, John Howard, Bill Hayden, John Hewson, etc. It was one of those unnerving experiences that you wonder if you will ever emerge from. Like being sucked into a vast blancmange.!)
If I am right in my musings @ 62, above, the key person in all this is Andrew Wilkie. Has he expressed any leanings one way or another?
One thing is for sure too. If the people of New England do not want Tony Windsor as their MP, he would be very welcome in just about any constituency in WA, whether conservative or not.
Frank, your mate Allanah, gave a good old fashioned spray to the campaigning geniuses who seem to be quite a protected species here on PB at the moment.
[Before Saturday’s federal election, Labor’s one great hope of picking up a seat in Western Australia was Canning. Its candidate, former State Labor Minister Allanah MacTiernan, was highly fancied to take the seat from Liberal Don Randall. She achieved a swing of more than three per cent but still came up short. Allanah MacTiernan says Labor ran a scare campaign and candidates were instructed not to sell the mining tax. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2010/2991359.htm
So ‘The Piping Shrike’ @ 80 you think we shouldn’t have supported Keating after he took out Hawke? I think Gillard is our PM and she is excellent. I believe Hawke was a great PM, Keating was a clever PM, Rudd was the PM we needed to cruch Howard, and Gillard is the best person to be PM for the future of the Labor Movement.
The Piping Shrike
It sounds like you’re arguing the government was a disaster.
Agree with Briefly at 62: if its 73-72-4-1 only the ALP can offer the independents 77 in the parliament: majority plus a speaker.
May be a factor. May not.
Love to see a 73rd ALP seat somewhere though. My money’s on Bevis!
oh dear, mad monk is now all soft and cuddly. Can i take him home?
[I’m quite worried about Wilkie. People seem to assume that he will lean to the left, but I’m not sure. There is actually a possibility that Wilkie may be the 4th amigo if the inds turn to Abbott. Interesting times though given his views on refugees and the war.]
If Wilkie is serious about his requirement of “ethical” govt how can he seriously contemplate backing a self confessed liar Tony Abbott.
A few things that went wrong for the ALP:
1. Spending millions of dollars on a postal vote campaign. Party-political postal votes must be legislated out by a returned ALP government. What a waste.
2. The leaks.
3. A complex (yet vague?) and changing message – no clear direction or theme (… stop the boats, end the waste, etc)
4. Not concentrating on the economy until weeks 4 and 5. Very stupid.
5. No visionary policy – I know we have no money, but we looked stupid promising $2 billion for a rail line in outer-sydney when we could have made a visionary policy announcement on something more worth-while that didn’t alienate the rest of the country (ie, QLD)
6. The election was too early. It should have been October.
If the ALP had won Moreton in 1961 then things would have been very interesting because there would have been 61 seats elected from states each and the 2 territory seats could only vote on territory specific votes. I believe they could not be elected Speaker either so the ALP could not have secured a with Speaker majority by electing one of them Speaker. The Coalition had a majority in the Senate so Liberal support would have been needed for a bill to allow the territory MPs to vote on non-territory matters.
There would have been an argument over who provided the Speaker (you provide a Speaker, no you provide a Speaker). The nearest seats on the pendulum were Bennelong and Maribyrnong at 0.8% and Lowe was 3rd at 0.9% (McMahon was nearly defeated in 1961).
It is a great shame that the ALP did not win in 1961.
GG most likely will not be interested in horse-trading. She simply continues Gillard’s commission. Parliament can work out for itself whether it wants to change the government. A Speaker will be appointed as the first act of the Parliament. Presumably the person nominated by Gillard will be elected. If Abbott moves a motion of no-confidence, a vote will be taken on the floor of the house. If not, it’s business as usual.
This is a scenario suggested to me. Not sure how valid this scenario is.
Look at 2007 results for Corangamite for example (similar in many
other electorates).
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionTcpByPollingPlace-13745-207.htm
ALP gets 55% of the absents, but only 43% of the postals
in a seat where they got only 51% overall.
Briefly at 86: Wilkie has been very careful since Saturday to stay neutral, and he managed to dodge the media all day today. His previous record is as Liberal and then Green; however he has massive baggage after being done over by Howard & Downer for his whistle-blower role.
Wilkie was a card carrying young Lib in Tassie, why are you so surprised ‘the spectator’ @92?