Newspoll, Nielsen, Westpoll

So …

• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.

• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.

• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.

UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.

UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.

UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.

UPDATE 5: A late situation report.

New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.

Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.

Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.

Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.

South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.

Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

980 comments on “Newspoll, Nielsen, Westpoll”

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  1. Take heart all ALP suppoerters.

    Read Mumble’s brilliant piece about Western Sydney absorbing a large proportion of the swing without too much pain due to the huge swings necessary to lose most seats.

    Enjoy the show tomorrow night.

    Worst comes to worst. might even have the Prime Minister as my local member …ugh!!!!

  2. I’m saying that those are the numbers ….. [always presuming I have checked the Newspoll site accurately, so go check yourself, always verify].

    The result will be different to what Newsopoll says by between .7% to 2.8% in one direction or the other, if the past is a guide, note the ‘if’.

    I might try to check the other major pollsters to see how they went.

    But don’t wait.

  4. Well that Newspoll actually adds up, the 27 aint a misprint.

    But -8.2 2PP in Qld is an extreme outlier, no-one else has got anything close to that, the others are all in the -2s through -5s IIRC. If it’s “corrected” to something like the worst of the rest that makes the 50.2 more like 50.8.

  5. I’ve closed off my betting market browsers. Doesn’t seem to be much happening and as it is as interesting as watching grass grow, I will log in at 7.30am and see what the actual starting prices are (but expect them to be very near identical to what they are now). If so, the adage – “the betting markets always get it right” – cant be 100% correct on this occassion (the error is probably in some individual seat markets).

  6. [Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, August 21, 2010 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    All the Bludgers said that it was OK for Rann to win despite losing the popular vote. Do they have the same opinion if Abbott wins without winning the popular vote?]

    Has anyone ever told you what any annoying prat you are?

  8. Hello everyone

    Thanks William for a great site.

    As for the Newspoll: there is no way in the world the ALP’s vote fell 8 per cent in just 3 days in Queensland.

    It is an outlier. The real result is probably 52-48. Just like all the other polls.

    And remember everyone: the media went on and on about Labor losing in Queensland in similar circumstances. Then it won. Then it said Labor would lose in SA. Then it won. Then it said Labor would lose in Tasmania. Then it won.

    Labor is good at defending its marginals. They will win the election.

  10. [Read Mumble’s brilliant piece about Western Sydney absorbing a large proportion of the swing without too much pain due to the huge swings necessary to lose most seats.]

    Yeah, this is along similar lines to what I said here sometime in the last few days about how the western Sydney toxic death zone narrative is overrated because there is simply not much out there left to throw.

  12. #110

    The Daily Telegraph have shown deliberate bias in the choice of the photograph to accompany that article. Abbott looks like a PM and Gillard looks like the host welcoming him to her hotel.

  15. From la Grattan’s piece:

    “Almost two thirds of voters (64 per cent, up 5 points) expect Labor to win, while just 22 per cent (down 5) predict a Coalition victory. These figures are the same as on the eve of the 2007 election.”

    This is by far a more predictive set of numbers than voting intention, it shows no mood for the Coalition.

  16. From previous thread
    [Punters have (as at 11.50pm) outlaid $1.4million on Betfair’s overall winner market alone. So the Betfair market is quite substantial.]
    Only out by $1.4 mll.

  18. Just posted this as my status update on Facebook, good night everyone and thank you William & Crikey for providing a wonderful platform for us all.

    [JJ is heading to sleep, calm and quietly confident that the Australian people can see through the lies and bullshit that the mainstream media seeks to perpetuate. This election is more than just about whether or not we get an NBN, or paid parental leave. This is about the soul of the nation. Whether or not big business can manipulate public opinion into voting against the collective self-interest. The name of the game is the deregulation of the labour market, and News Limited, Fairfax and even now the ABC all have a lot to answer for.

    Should Gillard be re-elected, I think many producers at the ABC better start working on their resumes. The bulk of the ABC board is up for renewal next year, and to be sure, the Howard appointees will be out on their arses. Managing Director Mark Scott will be summarily hung out to dry, and probably given a cushy job in one of the Murdoch stables. If you think I’m paranoid or joking, please have a read of the piece I put together here: http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/06/wheres-my-abc/

    Now to Tony Abbott. This is a man who would seek to take us back to the 1950s. He is the poster child for religious conservatism, and an integralist approach to Catholic values. That is to say, he cannot separate his religious convictions from his political aspirations. They are one and the same. To quote respected writer Lous Nowra:

    “the institution that has made him, the Catholic Church has also shaped his principles, so that he finds it difficult to disentangle his religious convictions from his political agenda. Like all his mentors he loathes abortion, IVF, the morning-after-pill and RYU486. He sees abortion as a national tragedy, as he does no-fault divorce…

    Throughout his life , Abbott has needed the Church and its teachings sometimes to a desperate degree, because he realizes that without it he would be morally and even psychologically lost. He knows he has personal demons to quell. Between his belfry-bat ears is a coil of such saturnine weirdness that no one, not even his closest friends, would want to unravel it…”]

    For more: http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/08/tony-abbott-the-man-behind-the-mask/

  19. Morgan Saturday morning update:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4568

    Morgan recontacted Greens and undecided voters.

    [Last night the Roy Morgan recontacted 187 ‘undecided’ and Green voters from the 7News Morgan Poll of 1,872 electors conducted on the evenings of Wednesday and Thursday August 18/19, 2010. Just over half the ‘undecided’ voters gave a preference marginally favouring the L-NP on a Two-Party preferred basis. Of Green voters, more than 80% confirmed their intention to vote Green, the others split 2:1 in favour of the L-NP on a Two-Party preferred basis. Taking these factors into account the primary voting intention is recalculated as ALP 39%, L-NP 42.5%; Greens 11.5% and Independents/ Others 7%. However the Two-Party preferred vote is unchanged at 51% cf. 49% according to the Morgan Poll update conducted last night (August 20, 2010).]

    Intellesting … but we are still to see what the hardcore undecideds do.

  20. ALP PV before Rudd drops ETS: 43
    ALP PV after Rudd drops ETS: 35
    ALP PV when JG became PV: 42
    ALP PV when JG drops ETS: 37

    Current ALP PV: 36.2

    So anyone still think CC not a factor?

    Here is my theory:
    When the ALP obfuscate on CC then the public think that it is too hard for a govt to do anything about it. The voters then refer to type.

    But when the ALP offer something on CC, voters appreciate that it is an important issue, feel govts can do something about it, see a difference between the two parties and vote accordingly.

    Anyone elese got any logic to explain a double dip in ALP ratings perfectly correlated with dumping CC action twice?

  21. blue_green@120

    ALP PV before Rudd drops ETS: 43
    ALP PV after Rudd drops ETS: 35
    ALP PV when JG became PV: 42
    ALP PV when JG drops ETS: 37

    Current ALP PV: 36.2

    So anyone still think CC not a factor?

    Here is my theory:
    When the ALP obfuscate on CC then the public think that it is too hard for a govt to do anything about it. The voters then refer to type.

    But when the ALP offer something on CC, voters appreciate that it is an important issue, feel govts can do something about it, see a difference between the two parties and vote accordingly.

    Anyone elese got any logic to explain a double dip in ALP ratings perfectly correlated with dumping CC action twice?

    small problem – you’re relying on Newspoll 🙂

    Nielsen and Galaxy tell a slightly different story 🙂

  22. [small problem – you’re relying on Newspoll

    Nielsen and Galaxy tell a slightly different story ]

    OK Frank. I still think that JG will get across the line.

    But stuffing around on CC really let it get close.

  23. Best of luck to all the (ALP) canvassers. I really hope your fellow countrymen and countrywomen aren’t stupid enough to kick out a government that brilliantly executed a stimulus package and thus kept unemployment at five percent and change. I hope further that certain Greens don’t preference Liberal just to make some stupid moral statement.

    As you may have guessed, I’m a center-left American who has taken to following politics in other countries because the likely results of the coming election are too depressing to contemplate (even though I’ve done phonebanking and other campaigning for my local Democratic party).

  26. [I’m going to bed at 1am WST – got an afternoon booth – 3-6pm – local Primary School in Pearce (Herne Hill)]

    Good luck Frank. Anyone he pulls their finger out to get involved in democracy has my respect.

  27. Morning bludgers

    I voted at a pre-poll in Reid yesterday. Voted below the line in the Senate – first 12 preferences allotted to the Coalition, Liberal Democratic Party and the Australian Sex Party, respectively. Greens, Labor, Communist Party and Socialist Alliance + Socialist Equality were placed in the bottom third between 60 and 83. Darren Barker received my 84th preference.

  29. From The Advertiser’s letters page:

    A FEW weeks ago, a friend told me Labor would win a cliff-hanger election by one single seat. Kevin Rudd would then send an open letter to Julia Gillard threatening to resign from the ALP unless . . .

  30. RE: JJ Fiasson

    ” Should Gillard be re-elected, I think many producers at the ABC better start working on their resumes.

    The bulk of the ABC board is up for renewal next year, and to be sure, the Howard appointees will be out on their arses.

    Managing Director Mark Scott will be summarily hung out to dry, and probably given a cushy job in one of the Murdoch stables..”

    Well, gee, JJ.

    I was early but not alone in urging Kevin to ditch the enemies within.

    It was simple as ABC.

    But he did not, such naivety, and now look!

    What a pretty pass.

    And, risking reiteration, Julia had better look at the problematical people who so suddenly elevated her.

    She wasn’t carrying the knife. They sure as hell do.

    And she sure as hell should equip herself.

    Against the hardly unseen comers.

    Ditch the enemies, within.

    Lyrics for Labor. Beware.

    “Nobody knows where my Johnny has gone
    Judy left the same time
    Why was he holding her hand
    When he’s supposed to be mine

    It’s my party, and I’ll cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to, cry if I want to
    You would cry too if it happened to you

    Playin’ my records, keep dancin’ all night
    Leave me alone for a while
    ‘Till Johnny’s dancin’ with me
    I’ve got no reason to smile

    It’s my party, and I’ll cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to, cry if I want to
    You would cry too if it happened to you

    Judy and Johnny just walked through the door
    Like a queen with her king
    Oh what a birthday surprise
    Judy’s wearin’ his ring

    It’s my party, and I’ll cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to, cry if I want to
    You would cry too if it happened to you’.

  31. The Morgan poll thing is weird. Why only re-poll Greens voters? To try and deduce if the vote is soft? But even if that’s the case, isn’t it possible that some LNP voters are jumping ship back to Labor, or even Green as well? It doesn’t seem like a very robust analysis to me.

    The undecideds splitting marginally to the LNP, however, is a little worrying. Although the sample size is too small for it to mean anything.

  33. @crikey whitey

    I already detailed, he could not change the ABC board. They have fixed terms. Most are due for renewal next year.

  36. @William

    Heh. It’s an interesting thought, that’s for sure. I’m pretty certain that Gillard would give Rudd the foreign affairs portfolio and lobby to score Rudd the position of UN Secretary General. However, if they’ve only got a 1 seat majority that means a by-election. Dangerous territiory.

  37. Just don’t accept that premise, JJ Fiasson.

    Could not change the board!!

    Why not? Hardly the first time an incoming government has rid itself of nuisance, but in this case, pestilence.

    Ugly, I know, but give them an offer they would not refuse.

    Why on earth would a person of Kev’s sympathies, to cite one example only, be so foolish as to permit the poisonous likes of Windschuttle and Albrechtsen to be and/or remain on the Board?

  38. Morning all just got home from work and then doing HTC card duties in Lindsay from 10:00 am.

    The baseball bats arn’t out there so a change of govt isn’t on the cards as far as I can tell. I think the polls are right where we want them for a victory just close enough to hold off the protest vote.

    Redneck radio news this morning replayed a snip of Abbott not answering questions about changes to IR regulations, journo pressed him and he just repeated the dead buried cremated line.

    cheers

  39. @crikey whitey

    The ABC charter is firm. 5 year terms. They would probably have to change the charter to change the board, which means a bill through the senate.

    @Paul_J

    Good to hear! The dead buried cremated line is absolutely ridiculous. Especially when he keeps saying only that “the phrase Workchoices is dead”. It’s Orwellian, and the fact that the media doesn’t call him on it is absolutely ridiculous.

    Is it true the Greens haven’t preferenced Labor in Lindsay?

  40. No Greens prefs are open .. I heard the Greens candidate in Lindsay slagging off Labor on 2GB yesterday trying to scab a few more votes I suspect.

    cheers

  42. I was early but not alone in urging Kevin to ditch the enemies within.

    The saying (and song) goes that you should “keep your friends close, and your enemies closer/in your pocket”. I suggest you should keep your friends close, and your enemies in a shallow grave.

  43. @Bellistner

    lol.

    God I need to go to sleep.

    Another talking point if anyone gets a chance to sway some undecideds – if they have anything to do with the public service, remind them that Abbott plans on instituting a job freeze to shed between 12,000 – 25,000 jobs from the APS through natural attrition.

    The NSW will be doing the same if they get in next year, which will see the job market become very very tight for people like myself. Sigh.

  44. I have been gagging while reading this horror show.

    http://www.oyetimes.com/views/columns/5374-the-real-story-of-the-sun-sea-and-tamil-refugees-in-canada

    Our Government’s ‘unbiased’ expert witness is sworn to advance Sri Lanka’s interests, not Canada’s. Rohan Gunaratna and his fellow agents have publicly pressured our government to confront the ship before it reaches our waters. That’s internationally illegal. In the past when Canada turned ships filled with refugees around, the people died. Recently Prime Minister Harper extended formal apologies for several such occurrences. -IN THE PAST WHEN AUSTRALIA HAS DONE THIS PEOPLE HAVE DIED BUT WE WANT TO DO IT AGAIN.

    SNIP: Defamatory comment deleted – The Management.

    This is the sort of horror story Abbott and Gillard both want to have here again.

    And if all these people had died AUSTRALIA WOULD HAVE KILLED THEM AND YET THE PRESS COUNCIL RECKON I AM TOO HARSH ON OUR DISGRACEFUL MEDIA AND POLLIES.

  45. Good morning all.

    Am shortly off to relieve the security guards who have been guarding the bunting at my Central Coast booth overnight.

    I want to wish everyone here. No matter what political persuasion. A really great Election Day. Be warm in the thought that you actually give a damn about your democracy and that we live in a country where we get to do this on a regular basis and noone gets killed or hurt in the process.

    A rare thing in this world.

    I may send in the occasional post during the day but likely talk to you all again in the evening.

  46. Labor ahead in all polls – check.
    Julia preferred PM – check.
    Tony negative approval – check.

    Champagne on ice -nearly. 😉

  47. Election day! YAY!

    Queensland poll doesn’t match mood on the ground. I have been in several parts of the state throughout campaign and mood has been passive, more like a state election.

    Predict a net status quo outcome with much better result for ALP than the chatter suggests! Off to help make that prediction happen, good luck to all the labor supporters today, we’ll need it and I think we’ll work hard to earn it.

    To all the Greens – your preferences to Labor above Liberal are more crucial!

  49. [The Newspoll survey reveals Ms Gillard has come from behind to go into the election with an eight-point lead over Mr Abbott on the question of which leader is best at handling the economy.]

    Amazing – not good for the Libs.

  50. woke up, checked out curious snail and the have a friggin (scuse) story of BER rorts by that Craig Mayne the supposed civil engineer. This is the same person who when ask in the senate hearings admitted he wasnt a engineer and wanted a job with the BER but has worked construction for the last 20yrs, hence he got knocked back.

    Be critical, find out when corruption is happening but for FS do some investigating before you write an article.

    On the note, good morning, looks close, RU hope your predition of labor losing 1 seat in qld rings true. At the moment I think that the narative may influence the vote in Libs favor.

    [sorry in advance for any spelling and grammar mistakes today. cheers dogma]

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