Amid talk of Labor internal polling showing the situation for them souring in New South Wales, The Australian tells us a Newspoll survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday has the parties locked together on 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 at the poll conducted over the weekend. It appears Newspoll surveyed 800 people on both evenings and will do so again tonight, producing a 2500-sample poll that will be published in the Weekend Australian. More to follow …
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead. Miranda Devine of the Sydney Morning Herald tweets that the Coalition primary vote in Newspoll is up three points, which means 44 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Most excellent comments contributor Lukas relates the Galaxy primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens.
UPDATE 3: Herald Sun report on Galaxy here. The sample was 1200, bigger than the Galaxy norm. The report informs us that 38 per cent of voters in New South Wales and Queensland “say they are less likely to vote Labor because of toxic state ALP governments”.
If the Coalition win we will not have:
– the NBN
– the mining tax
– a properly funded PPL
Finns
I know that
I was just testing my ????????????????
😉
Gawd. Robb’s performance on Lateline tonight is dreadful. He really does *not* inspire confidence.
The undecideds are still huge, by historical standards. If they were gonna buy abbot they would have closed by now.
Good advice In the Know.
This isn’t even the final figure for this poll. If it comes out 52-48 to Labor on Friday Night then everyone will be jumping for joy. Lets keep it in perspective.
# 100
Good.
No incumbency benefit this time, it was discarded.
In the back rooms of Labor HQ at this moment there is a room being prepared with 6 places. Bitar, Feeny, Arbib, Shorten, JGillard and Howes.
Frank I just want to know:
1. PPM figures.
2. Liberal primary vote. No way could it be more than 43.
It’s unlikely to be 52/48 as it’ll only be adding an extra 900 to the sample.
btw
hai to our fib fiends
we r in ur votez
kthxbai
I’m quite amused by the reverse psychology employed by some on here. It seems the hacks are the ones that are still positive, and well, they’e ‘in the know’…
This is based on nothing more than a gut feeling.. however I reckon NSW started to drift from Labor the moment NSW residents saw Kristina Keneally whispering into Julia’s ear at Parramatta Railway station.
The $2.1 billion Parramatta to Epping rail promise was a step too far. The electors were happy to differentiate between NSW Labor and Fed Labor until that night.
Nope, even at 52/48 in Labor’s favour, I’d still expect Abbott as PM.
Votes to Labor in all the wrong places.
is there anyone with a decent explanation as to why the government didn’t throw the liberals an anchor when they were drowning?
What is this nonsense about margin of error? We all know the closer to the election we get the smaller the margin of error. By election day Newspoll will be within 0.5% of the final result 😉
[Nope, even at 52/48 in Labor’s favour, I’d still expect Abbott as PM.]
at 90-10 you’d still want abbott
Ewwww
Fantastic poll for Labor at 50/50
undecided peoples (10%) will believe its a cliff hanger , and think about what they voting on
wht will they tink of w/c vs boats , unemploy low vs BS debt , NBN vs horseys and buggys
and reckon despite newspoll , we already in front based ON more VIP on marginal polling , and now plus majority of undecideds , so victory folks awaits not despair
All the people i know are voting ALP in the Rep and Green in the Senate. Green will do very well in the Senate.
ltep, so you think it’s most likely only going to change one point either way?
This is hilarious. The fiberals have been sitting watching, waiting to pounce.
Sorry guys — too much to soon — I don’t believe it at all. It is all about seats — there are no uniform swings.
Quite a number of seats will need 5% to change hands … not likely.
I lay $50 says tomorrow’s Newspoll says ALP 52-48.
#115
What?
I am talking about the normal statistical errors associated with any sample polling. A sample of around 1600 people would have a 2-3% margin of error, regardless how close to the election it is.
Oh calm down, all the weelberooneds.
Labor, and Julia, to win.
And- Go Jim Arneman! Pop the Self-Inflating Beast of Paterson!!!
No 100
1. NBN unnecessary
2. Mining tax an egregious attack on our economy
3. PPL scheme from the Liberals is far better for families
Just on the PPL – I oppose the scheme as it requires additional taxes, however the net company tax for companies with a taxable income above $5 million is still 30% due to the Liberal promise to reduce the company tax to 28.5%. So no net additional payment for these larger companies. Not optimal, but tolerable compared to what the scheme was when Abbott announced it earlier this year.
[is there anyone with a decent explanation as to why the government didn’t throw the liberals an anchor when they were drowning?]
Not an easy thing to do when the Liberals were (are) being massively bouyed by the one-sided media, led by the nation’s two biggest and most influential news & opinion outlets – News Ltd and their ABC.
TP:
[Bitar, Feeny, Arbib, Shorten, JGillard and Howes.]
Thats a good list of people whose career ENDS Saturday if Im wrong!!
The Finnigans@118
My experience as to the Senate as well. Unprecedented. Arbib and Bitar just don’t get it.
Hey, Gus, I don’t want Abbott.
But looking at how things are going in the key seats, he’s looking like the guy taking pride of place on the porch at Kiribilli House on Sunday morning.
Again, I DON’T want Abbott! Don’t even suggest it! The only thing I have to gain is a couple of bucks from bet. I’ll gain some money, but lose faith in my nation.
This says it all for NSW voters.
@GP/124,
If you saying NBN is unnecessary so is PPL, 🙂
Thank goodness we have a senate.
[Oh calm down, all the weelberooneds.
Labor, and Julia, to win.]
You tell-em Kersebleptes!
Another first for australia – the first lower primate in the lodge…
THe only positive of a labor loss is that the bunch of poll driven factional goons and geniuses who literally tore apart the party at the behest of news limited and the mining industry will be frogmarched out of canberra. Hopeful thinking.
Bilbo
[Mick, you do realise that Melbourne has no bearing on the outcome as far as government is concerned, as it is clear Adam Bandt would support Labor.]
The only place I have read this is in the MSM (the Australian, I believe), which, correct me if I am wrong, you inferred that I was a moron for believing just two weeks ago? Do you selectively choose the stories you’d believe?
If you are suggesting that having a Green member in the house of reps (no crude zombie jokes here please!) is the same as having 76 ALP, then it confirms our suspicions that the Greens are no more than the old ALP ultra-socialist guard.
Rule one is DON’T PANIC. One poll does not an election make. Newspoll has rounded off a set of Labor 2PP responses which could be anywhere from 49.5% to 50.4%. We can be 95% confident that the ‘real’ level of support is within 2.45% (the margin of error) of Newspoll’s unrounded figure, whatever that was. This Newspoll could be the one-in-twenty which is a rogue poll. Even if not, the margin of error could also mean the result represents no change in ‘real’ support from the recent all-polls trend of around 51.5% to 51.9%.
I still can’t see which seats the Libs are winning on Saturday to form Govt. Can anyone post a vaguely credible list that would give the Libs a majority.
And whomever suggested Cowper falling to the ALP has been spending too much time in a Bellingen cafe.
pdf of previous fortnight’s polling with State breakdowns etc.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/100804%20State%20&%20Demographic%20Analysis.pdf
and some history re WA in 2005 🙂
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/cgi-lib.30667.1.0222_wa_final.pdf
GP, I’d never support a scheme that essentially says that the child of a marketing executive is worth more that the child of a nurse.
It’s a disgusting policy proposal and should not happen.
Newspoll 2010 the new Neilson of 2007?
Can be hope???
[gain, I DON’T want Abbott! Don’t even suggest it! The only thing I have to gain is a couple of bucks from bet. I’ll gain some money, but lose faith in my nation.]
Rosa, you’ll get one of your wishes coming true
Madcyril, that’s the most likely result. It’d need to be around 54/46 tonight to bump the result up wouldn’t it?
Mick W
Adam Bandt has openly said he can only support a Labor government
Hearing noises elsewhere that Green vote is off the radar and they will be out in force on poling day. Have they covered all lower house seats?
Ah, the Labor circle-jerkers must be longing for the days of 61-39.
WE’RE COMING BACK
[Not an easy thing to do when the Liberals were (are) being massively bouyed by the one-sided media, led by the nation’s two biggest and most influential news & opinion outlets – News Ltd and their ABC.]
and labor were at 60-40 in the polls and ppm? liberals in complete disarray, an electorate that had begun to believe in climate change? come on. does anyone really not believe that if rudd had pulled the trigger he would have smashed the liberal party to flinders? the liberals certainly believed it.
lefty
funnily enough the truce has held well
just reinforce to the troops that the time for silly biggers is over
DFU
ps noticed a few faux trying to incite- dont they know we have a secret password
LOL
Mercury-IRIS Poll
Seat of Gilmore
400 voters polled
Primary Votes:
ALP 32 LNP 54
Two Party Preferred:
ALP 42 LNP 58
@GP/144,
No thats you thats wanting it to be that….
GP,
If the Fibs proposed the NBN and mining tax, you would support it.
As for “over my dead body” Abbott’s PPL, companies will never fund his scheme. NEVER!