Newspoll breaks it down

The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.

The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.

Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.

fed2010-statebystatepolling

As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,030 comments on “Newspoll breaks it down”

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  1. Dee

    In the second world war, Soviet Army dogs were trained to go under tanks and activate explosives to destroy the tanks.

    trials were 100% succesful, but when deployed into battle were complete failures

    Have a guess why?

  3. whilst the OO’s shameless spruiking of old polls as a new poll is a desparate attempt to prop up the Liberal campaign, i think its very good for the punters to think its very tight, so they will look as closely as possible to Abbott and his rabble.

    Whilst no one has regarded Abbott’s broadband interview as the birthday cake one for Hewson, I think the not knowing about maximum speeds came pretty close

  4. I hope we do a good job informing people in remote qld nsw they may not have broadband at all but may have great bit tower ( gee thats the same initials as tone favourite saying) coming to spot near them

    “Lots of Great Big Towers in the grounds of every school and hospital.”

    Will Abbot promise to supply tin foil hats to everyone like they did with the Terrorism Hotline fridge magnets?

  5. Wireless communication also occurs at the speed of light, so it’s not the speed of transmission that’s the problem. Wireless signals are sent in all directions, even though the recipient is a single point source, so it’s horribly inefficient, and I wonder if that’s the reason that wireless becomes more congested and slower per user compared with optical fibre (by “slower” here I mean fewer packets of data in a given length of time because of the congestion; each packet would still arrive at the speed of light).

  6. I thought the press would have monstered the overall bad performance of the Coalition yesterday.
    Lateline gave the Rabbott favourable coverage of his BB. Radio National both last night & this morning has had as BB often notes, ‘The opposition says……’
    Repititiously spruiking $43 billion,(big, big, big) & we can do it so much cheaper. All the lead ins were from the opposition.

  7. @triton/155,

    It’s not the wireless speed that is the problem,

    It’s the hardware on both ends that is the bottleneck.

    Especially the number of users that the ISP is trying to push through each tower.

  11. victoria

    You have Liberals that believe in an absolute interpretation of the bible, that requires one to suspend all faith in the scientific method.

    The big plus offered by the NBN is the laying of fibre too the home. Most of the backbone in this country is already fibre, there is some microwave links left but they will go with time.

    The equipment either end of fibre will improve over time, allowing greater data rates over the same fibre and cheaper connects. The fibre will remain the same. And it it’s glass fibre it will last a long time. It will not be money wasted.

    The difference is the amount of data that can be pushed down the medium, like it or not ASDL is about it for copper, it’s over, a gallant effort to extend the life of a very large investment made over the last 100 years. The current rates offered with fibre are just the beginning, and anyway the initial rate is good enough to run a few video streams, voice streams and the reading of poll bludger together.

    When passing data down a radio link you use spectrum ( different frequencies) it’s a limited resource. Gallant efforts have been made to push more data down the same spectrum. Current links are time multiplexed, the base station is transferring messages to multiple phones. If there are not many phones around you can have more of the available resource. If your talking thats no plus as you only need so much bandwidth to transfer a voice channel. If the link is to a computer it can use it all thank you very much. That is where the peak speed comes in.

    The trouble with everyone using wireless is simple, there is just not enough bandwidth to go around. The Liberal policy is no policy, it even worse than that it is just plain bullshit.

  13. BB
    [In typical Liberal fashion Robb had the gall to say the cost could be $86 million. The old tried and true method – think of a number and then just double it.]
    Surely Robb didn’t say $86 million for BBand. Hope he did.

  14. Has anyone done a correlation between Conroys list of towns missing out and marginal seats in Qld? I think a local campaign would work a treat

  16. The Victorian editor was just on ABC radio with Jon Faine. He was trying to say that ABC24 should not bother, because there is already a 24 hour news service, Sky News. Jon Faine pointed out that the ABC is free, whereas you have to pay for Sky.

    Jon Faine also said that the ABC have done a good job this election cycle. He mentioned Q&A and 7.30 report doing great and also the interview Philip Adams had with K Rudd.

    This was in response to the criticism that apparently OO makes about the ABC on a daily basis.

  17. [Abbott has used it as the centrepiece of his “overspending” criticisms of the government, but claims to not be across the “techhead” details. The media goes along with this, slavishly. The aim is to muddy the waters enough until election time, when, if Abbott wins, we will wake up to the sound of bulldozers physically ripping up the NBN and find ourselves condemned to almost third world communications, especially by the time his option is up and running.]

    BB,
    To a certain extent, such as ABC-TV 24 and SkyNews coverage of the NBN plans. It seems ABC24 has decided to shun the ABC-1 (21?) current affairs programs like “Q and A” (Gillard’s superb performance) and O’Brien’s interview of Abbott.

    However, since Sydney’s marginal seats are a significant factor, this SMH article on “Abbott’s net blunder” is helpful for Labor. It’s been prominently placed on SMH website all this morning.

    [‘I’m no Gates’: Abbott’s net blunder

    10:24am Opposition Leader struggles to explain basics of his own broadband policy, saying he’s no ”tech head”.
    This article contains a video that will play automatically.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/

  18. Andrew #51
    [And I simply dont see how an opposition can sneak over the line when they are behind with 1 1/2 weeks to go, especially when they are led by non-tech head.]

    This is not really a valid assessment. Firstly, polls are far closer than in 2007 and there is still a certain amount of noise. Secondly the national TPP is almost irrelevant, as I have been making comment now for three weeks about. Swings are never uniform and are far less important in a close contest where states are polarised.

    I have shown modelling where ACT ALP votes increases 10%, SA 5% and Vic 2% and the coalition sneak into minority government with independents. This same model had QLd @3.4% to coalition and NSW 1.5% to coalition.. very conservative estimates.

    Almost no one would consider a PM with tech skills as number 1 on the list of characteristics any more than they should one with attractive earlobes.

  22. Andrew

    Exactly. If you are going to sell a policy, you must at least be across the basics of it. In any case, Abbott was not even at the Launch of this policy.

  23. Latest odds: longer for Coalition, tightening for ALP in 2 Horse Race. 37% chance to Coalition, 63% chance to ALP.

    Seat analysis softer for ALP: Coalition gains reducing margins. ALP gains softening in WA & Vic. Solomon shaky.

    Notables: Wyatt Roy has implied probability of 43% compared with 40% last week in Longman. Bennelong tightening to 40%/60% in from 32% two weeks ago. Fiona MacNamara (ALP) holding strongly in Petrie.

  24. would of loved Abbott last night to go to Kerry uhhh errr ummm wot was the phukking kwestion again? I think the Liberals are running a poor campaign and I think they thought they were romping it in last week. Better opposition for Labor and i think the Labor campaign would be in more trouble.

  27. brisoz
    [The problem is alot of people think their experts on the subject, just check out Whirlpool latest:
    http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1508442&p=23#r456

    “You seem to forget that NBN will be paying $8 to $11bn PER YEAR to telstra to use the pitts and pipes.”

    No it’s not, that is a once of deal.]
    With a political agenda. As I said last night, the techno garb is lost on me. I think, well, how many out there in voter land are in the same basket as me???
    Probably a damn lot. Which means they will probably go with what they do understand. The Coalition’s line of ‘Expensive’, Go cheap. Misinformation of we can provide the same outcomes but for a fraction of the cost. We know its a lie but the ALP need to get the facts out there. It also peeves me when peak industry bodies whinge & cry about the possibility of the NBN being scrapped but don’t put their weight behind it when needed.

  28. and what makes it worse about Abbott’s lack of knowledge on the Broadband Policy, is that he actually does not give a f……….. about it!!

  29. Latest seat odds show a minority Coalition government by one seat. Very, very close.

    Senate prediction in poll shown was only 1 seat different to the analysis I offered on Monday: 33 ALP, 33 LIB, 1 Independent, 9 Green. Greens with 90% balance of power with 95% confidence interval.

  33. The video clip attached to SMH article on “Abbott’s net blunder” is from Channel 10 news—not quite as positive for Labor as the article, but okay and at least showes a bit of Abbott with Kerry O’Brien.

    Here’s the SMH online poll which follows the article and video clip.

    [Which party has the best plans to upgrade Australia’s broadband network?
    Poll formPlease select an answer. Coalition, it’s affordable, efficient and responsible. Labor, it’s expensive but revolutionary. Greens, fast broadband but no internet filter. View results
    Coalition, it’s affordable, efficient and responsible.
    18%
    Labor, it’s expensive but revolutionary.
    60%
    Greens, fast broadband but no internet filter.
    22%
    Total votes: 15461.
    Would you like to vote? You will need Cookies enabled to use our Voting Feature.

    Poll closes in 2 days]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/im-no-bill-gates-abbott-stumbles-on-broadband-plan-20100811-11yi8.html#poll

  36. BK

    Thanks for that.

    In SA, Abbott is playing catchup on the Murray and has a rare good front page. Can’t compare policies yet.

    And the banners of the OO said “ALP BEHIND IN KEY SEATS: NEWSPOLL”

    If that crap above is all they have, I don’t understand how they can say that. Are there new Newspoll seat specific polls or is the OO making it up?

  37. @Dee,

    Unfortunately, The Industry already has put their weight behind it, and look what it got them, a half-assed Broadband plan from a Coalition Party, that hasn’t bothered to listen to anyone, but themselves.

  38. For non Tech-Heads (apologies to tech heads):

    You do have to laugh, the problem with copper is not the speed at which the electrons travel but the rate at which you can change how they are travelling. I suppose you have to keep the message simple.

    Two copper wires running a long distance next to each other can be looked upon as two metal plates positioned near to each other: in other words, a “capacitor” (as charge builds up on one, an equal and opposite charge builds up on the other).

    Not only that, but a signal on one wire induces magnetism in the other, which in turn induces electrical current in the original wire, and vice versa for all the wires in a bundle of wires. This is because magnetism and electricity are essentially two sides of the same coin: one causes the other and vice versa (which is how electrical generators and motors work).

    Add this induction (electricity-magnetism-electricity) to the capacitance (between the two wires acting as “plates”) and you get the signal smoothed off the further the cable is stretched. Eventually the amount of smoothing is equal to or greater than the actual frequency of the signal, and that’s when the signal disappears altogether. But before it even reaches that point the signal has degraded quite a bit.

    The higher the frequency of the signal (plus the longer the cable) the earlier this point of signal degradation is reached. At 100 mbits it’s maybe a hundred metres, but the signal has significant degradation long before that, hence data can only reliably pass at slower speeds. At ADSL speeds it’s longer, but the degradation still kicks in within a kilometre or so from the exchange.

    An optical fibre is a very long, very thin, very pure strand of glass enclosed in a plastic sheath for protection. Optical fibre has no electrical signal passing through it, hence no inductance or capacitance effects. The signals pass through an optical fibe essentially interference-free. Hence much higher data rates than 100mbits can be sustained, in fact gigabits are easy to achieve.

    Alternatively, you can sacrifice speed of transmission for content. One optical fibre that is capable of transmitting a single signal at 1 gigabit can transmit 10 signals at 100mbits. To each end user (you in your office sitting at your PC) the signal will appear to be 100mbits, the same as it will appear to be to the 9 other people sitting in the same office, or your 9 neighbours up and down the street. The NBN will have hundreds of millions of optical fibres running simultaneously, supplying millions of homes, offices, and workplaces.

    Copper has no hope of ever matching this speed.

    Wireless is even slower, due to the great interference from environmental factors that it experiences.

    The only reason the NBN is talking about “100mbits” is due to limitations in the switching equipment at the exchange, which is not optically based. But there are new technologies in test right now that switch optical signals optically, without needing to transfer the optical signal to electricity for switching and then back to optical for transmission: they do the switching directly on the optical signal, thus not slowing it down at all.

    Once this switching gear comes on stream then the “100mbit” optical NBN network will become the “1 gigabit” (or faster) NBN network without one cable having to be replaced or altered.

    And THAT is why the NBN is so amazing. It’s future proof.

    As our exchanges become more sophisticated, the fibre already in the ground will be there to cope with the new technology and new data speeds. This is why those saying the NBN might be replaced by “something better” are wrong. You can’t get faster than the speed of light, and you can’t get better quality transmission of light-based signals than in a closed system, free of interference, as optical fibres are.

  39. [He replied that the technology is glass optic fibre, which travels at the speed of light]
    Er… electricity in copper travels at (close to) the speed of light too. The problem is bandwidth rather than latency. Most significantly, ADSL has relatively horrible upload speeds.

    The issue with all of the technologies the coalition is talking about is that they rely on clever tricks to transmit high speed data via relatively crappy mediums – copper or radio – rather than relying on laying a network of the best medium we have at the moment, fibre optic. Their preferred technologies are squeezing every last drop of performance out of infrastructure (especially copper) that was never designed to carry data.

  41. Thank you very much for that, BB! Elucidated the limitations of copper, and the potential of fibre, very nicely.

    Did you read up on it, or can you just rattle off stuff like that cold?

  42. [In typical Liberal fashion Robb had the gall to say the cost could be $86 million. The old tried and true method – think of a number and then just double it.]
    Robb probably just did a Barnaby and got his millions and billions mixed up 🙂

    Seriously, at a minimum (not including land cost) of say $500K per tower, that would get less than 200 transmitters, which would cover less than 200 suburbs. You wouldn’t even finish doing Sydney for that price, forget the bush.

  44. Dio, its key states. and is based on combining the 50/50 with the 52/48 newspoll

    Be very interesting to see the next set of polls as the media here especially The Age has been far more positive for Gillard this week

  46. Westpac-Melbourne Institute has reported that consumer confidence has risen 5.4% in July this year, and have said it is a strong result.

  47. BB 188

    All true. I think the comparison is even more clear cut than that. With the current price of copper, fibre optic cable is actually cheaper than copper wire to install now. Nobody puts in new copper wire, even in residential subdivisions.

  49. A cogent analysis by Possum on his “Pollytics” blog today regarding the gender factor showing up in polls and the Debate’s “worms”. Here’s The Estimable Marsupial’s conclusion.

    [Part of what makes this election unusual is the swapping of gender strengths since the last election. In 2007, Labor had around 4 points more men than women on their primary vote, while now it’s the opposite. The Coalition had around two points more women than men on their primary vote, now it too is the opposite.

    This is important, because the number of people that will have actually changed their party vote since 2007 will be much, much larger than whatever the national swing is on August 21. So if Labor wins with, say (picking a random number) 52% – the national swing will have only been 0.7% towards the Coalition, which would be less than 1 in 100 people changing their vote in net terms. However, the reality underneath would actually be more like 15 to 20% of the population changing their vote if we just look at the current and recent gender breakdowns alone. If undecided men and women split strongly along gender, it will be larger still.]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/08/11/gender-shifts-and-voter-churn/#more-8661

  50. Does the Lib broadbandish plan address pair gain? If not it is a complete joke that will still leave lots of people like myself on crappy wireless—and I am like 2Km from the exchange!

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