The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.
The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.
Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.
As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.
[Socrates
……..
Now that the press are finally starting to scrutinise coalition policy, I can’t see their vote improving from here. Labor just needs to stay on mesage (economics, stability, we avoided the recession the others wanted us to have) and not get caught up in the boat people garbage, to win.]
Very well put, the right win nutters in the Labor party who want Paulines vote should go to hell, the nutters have destroyed the Liberal party it would be good if they didn’t destroy the Labor party.
[88 Brissy Rod
Posted Wednesday, August 11, 2010 at 9:09 am | Permalink
These Newspoll results seem to point to a hung Parliament. Is that ]
let all hope that the pv goes up some what dont think we can stand that on the night the last few weeks have been dreadful
Itep
Victorians do not like Abbott.
Psephes are u there
son went in to madrid to vote with his girl friend but was told they could not vote there what to do
Watched all of that Press conference with Abbott, his body language was very bad, he started to get quite terse towards the end, suspect his minder was getting worried…
[These Newspoll results seem to point to a hung Parliament. Is that right?]
These state by state breakdowns are a bit dubious. The MOE for each state must be quite high and they use an average of the last 2 weeks polls.
And someone else here mentioned that in the scheme of things they are less accurate than nationwide polls and the betting market, about level with tea leaf reading and only slightly ahead of goat entrail analysis.
Morning Bludgers,
It’s looking like The Greens are heading towards nearly doubling their vote to 2 million,
and saving Australia (with their preference flow) from a Dark Age of an Abbot government.
The rise and rise of the massive Green vote has to be the story of this election and the past decade.
How can such a fundamental realignment in Australian politics be ignored any longer?
The Bludgers that predicted the end of The Greens sure look silly, how wRONg were they?
I don’t think a personalised mail out from Peter Garret will help,
And the drugs for kindergarten children has been so over done.
So what will the ‘LIB/LAB Party’ cook up now, in the last week of this election, to slander The Greens this time?
Predictions anyone??
There is an allocation of $1.4 billion in the forward estimates for the MD basin. So Abbott is actually cutting funds for water.
[Itep
Victorians do not like Abbott.]
When talking to ltep you have to appreciate that he has a deep, unwavering belief in the unbeatability of the Tories. Ltep still thinks Howard will win the 2007 election.
Victoria: Barnyard just yelled a lot, but didn’t actually say anything meaningful.
Usual Barnaby. 😉
Nervous nellies might like to listen to Hugh Mackay’s take on the election on Monday night:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/latenightlive/stories/2010/2977533.htm
confessions.
Thanks. Nothing much changed then. Barnyard just being Barnyard!!
leftwingpinko
I know Itep is talking himself into a Tories win, but with each passing day it appears to be very unlikely. Thank Goodness!!
[my say
Posted Wednesday, August 11, 2010 at 9:18 am | Permalink
Psephes are u there
son went in to madrid to vote with his girl friend but was told they could not vote there what to do]
When I am overseas I go to the embassy on polling day, that works unless Howard changed that as well.
Presumably Possum will have a way of processing these figures which will put them into better perspective.
They are small samples and I wouldn’t be rushing to any conclusions about them until I hear from the expert.
If it wasn’t for sections of the media propping up Abbott & the Liberals, they’d be losing this election comprehensibly.
The media’s obsession with boat people during this year has been the biggest free kick for the conservatives.
I must correct my comments from last night.
Centrebet predictions for election result:
ALP 81 seats
COALITION 66 seats
OTHERS 3 seats.
[They are small samples and I wouldn’t be rushing to any conclusions about them until I hear from the expert.]
Whats wrong? Shanahan not good enough for you?
I sent the Tony Horror Show Time Warp to my 20-something nephew. His response:
[So Tony Abbot is a Transvestite?]
👿
[marg
Posted Wednesday, August 11, 2010 at 9:20 am | Permalink
……
I don’t think a personalised mail out from Peter Garret will help,
And the drugs for kindergarten children has been so over done.
So what will the ‘LIB/LAB Party’ cook up now, in the last week of this election, to slander The Greens this time?
Predictions anyone??]
I’m sure it will be a repeat of the same old shit. LIB/LAB are ran by old farts my age, the Green vote is pretty young and I really think they don’t care too much about a persons sexuality and most probable have seen how successful the current drug policies have been, maybe a friend who has destroyed him or herself with no facilities to undo the damage.
As the people who have decided to vote Green have heard it all before, I don’t think things will change much.
[I sent the Tony Horror Show Time Warp to my 20-something nephew. His response:
So Tony Abbot is a Transvestite?
👿 ]
Nah, that was Dolly Downer.
Regarding broadband, I can’t see the Libs winning on that one.
It’s such an important issue for Australia’s future and I think it could be the game breaker..
Darn, I won’t be crunching this Newspoll release because it’s only 1 poll’s worth of new data from the last time.
The next one however will certainly be crunched – as all the data will be new (including the Nielsens folded in)
The Newspoll state results are already old news. If I understand it correctly, 50% of the data they use is 2 weeks old, when Labor’s campaign was in a hole. There are also high MOEs due to the small samples. I wouldn’t read too much into them.
My favourite on-line poll
[Should Geelong Football Club be sending political messages to its members?]
Perfectly divided 50:50. Amazing. Oh dear – all of 2 votes!
I don’t know anything about this brand of football, but I think there is a broader message for the Geelong FC…
[http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/fury-as-cats-punt-on-liberal-party-20100810-11y8s.html]
Local ABC took calls on broadband. First 3 callers all said what lousey speeds they have and they want the NBN.
First bloke said wtte Joe Hockey talks absolute cr.p when he says it will cost $43bill. With Telstra in it drops into the $20bills range. He went on to completely bag the Coalition plan and so did the other callers.
Our presenter (who usually favours Nationals) stopped the calls after the first 3 were not complimentary to the Coalition.
Is it right for Labor not to answer the $43bill. tag? I thought the cost had been dropped but I didn’t hear it mentioned anywhere yesterday.
[fredn
Posted Wednesday, August 11, 2010 at 9:26 am | Permalink
my sa]
just rang the electoral office surprise surprise Madrid not on the list
man at electoral office did not want to get in to politics and quiet rightly so.
So this is where one day on line voting if you are over seas may be good.
He is thinking may go to London a bit earlier so sent him all the info
As Oakes might have said,
“How can you cover a campaign in a serious manner when you’re too busy covering your own coverage?”
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/oakes-returns-volley-to-latham/story-fn5zm695-1225903679939
Thank you Mark Latham. Such a beautiful own goal.
[Is it right for Labor not to answer the $43bill. tag? I thought the cost had been dropped but I didn’t hear it mentioned anywhere yesterday]
I agree. Labor should be spruiking the revised figure.
In typical Liberal fashion Robb had the gall to say the cost could be $86 million. The old tried and true method – think of a number and then just double it.
There is an expert on ABC Radio being interviewed byJon Faine. He is all for the Labor Policy on the NBN.
Faine asked him that by the time the NBN is rolled out, will it then be outdated?
He replied that the technology is glass optic fibre, which travels at the speed of light. He doubts that the law of physics can be defied?
Bingo!!
This was echoing a “telecommunications extert” the ABC dragged out two weeks ago to say that “in his experience” these kinds of projects always doubled in cost.
The guy’s name was Malcolm McKenzie. No one in the industry has ever heard of him. Just about the only reference to McKenzie on the net was one he wrote about himself, for Linked-In. You’d think that a “telecommunications expert” would be all over the net, wouldn’t you?
He disappeared as quickly as he appeared, a complete chimera, whose “expert opinion” Robb now uses to neatly double the cost of the NBN.
http://www.linkedin.com/ppl/webprofile?vmi=&id=2913147&pvs=pp&authToken=wwA2&authType=name&locale=en_US&trk=ppro_viewmore&lnk=vw_pprofile
BB
Labor must advertise the benefits of the NBN and the waste of money the Libs will spend patching up a system which will definitely be outdated within 5 years.
I think Labor will be on a winner if they push hard on the NBN this week.
Bushie
never let it be said that mark didnt do his bit for the cause
😉
Re Mark Latham. Is he still going to do a report on 60 minutes??
Gusface
The appearance of Latham on the political landscape this election has been a winner for Labor.
bushie
that mckenzie was totally torn apart by paul budde- a real expert in the telco/it area
Vic
mark is an unguided missile,he just doesnt realise it
Gusface.
Yes he is. Only doubts I have is if he is still going to do a report for 60 minutes, how much oxygen will he suck out of the air?
Vic
as much as he wants
he is seen as marvin the monster and thru that prism will his report be seen.
scare back the waverers and keep the focus on the dangers of unhinged ones cf Mr Rabbott
The Libs have hit the talkback on local ABC now – last 2 callers spouting Lib lines perfectly that $43bill is exorbitant for little return!!
Gusface.
Too true.
I saw him as a brute on the day he stalked Julia, and luckily most have seen it that way.
Simple story here: govt will be returned with reduced majority, poorest states will be the traditionally conservative Qld and WA (although Labor’s vote will hold up better on the north coast than in Brisbane), NSW is traditionally a Labor state and Labor may just break even but relative to past patterns Labor will do poorly in NSW. Vic, SA and Tas will be best for Labor. Sitting MPs from either party may defy the trend somewhat. The Qld story isn’t about Rudd but rather the state returning to political type after one of its rare flirtations with Labor.
[
He replied that the technology is glass optic fibre, which travels at the speed of light. He doubts that the law of physics can be defied?]
You do have to laugh, the problem with copper is not the speed at which the electrons travel but the rate at which you can change how they are travelling. I suppose you have to keep the message simple.
fredn
The question might be asked, do the Liberals believe in the science of Physics???
[It is my considered opinion, (even though there was a good Getup online ad about Tone’s views on women that I think comes from his university days) that things said or written in university or college days should be off-limits for dragging out years later to attack people trying for office. (Particularly if these are from the early uni years.) If there are recent examples that show that views are unchanged, maybe then there MAY be valid to show a pattern, but it’s still shaky.]
Generally Puff I would agree with you but, & it is a big but. A lot of this guys former views reflect the Rabbott’s views just prior to him becoming the opposition leader. A leader who asked us to forget all that had occurred before his ascension to Coalition leader.
[ It’s pretty clear who’s got the screw loose,” Mr Oakes said.
]
NO, No, no. Thats un-Australian, It’s{=
It’s pretty clear who has got a roo loose in the top paddock
[He replied that the technology is glass optic fibre, which travels at the speed of light]
Chris Bowen should be saying this at every opportunity. I heard him on Lateline last night and again this morning on the radio and although he did a good job he never mentioned the speed of light bit. Someone needs to tell him.
There has been talk that the ALP will win the popular vote but lose too many seats & not pick up enough to retain government. 🙁
Any PB’s hearing anything to that affect???
Dee
i heard that one in 2007
🙂
victoria
[Gusface
The appearance of Latham on the political landscape this election has been a winner for Labor.]
When the 9 network said his employment was temporary, I thought yeah, that would be right. In other words, just as an election spoiler.
Latham has been employed to assist the tearing down of the Labor government.
Gus I saw one article in an obscure tech journal by Budde. And yes, it DID demolish McKenzie. But it wasn’t quite the national radio and on line coverage that McKenzie got from the ABC. And while Robb used the laundering of McKenzie’s opinion to cite McKenzie (even if in a cowardly and anyonymous way), I didn’t see Labor cite Budde anywhere (although plenty of other supportive opinions were cited).