The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).
This just from Twitter
[Could this woman look any more like a Liberal supporter?]
And is it just me, or are those leggings as pants? Mia Freedman will have a fit.
I had a young bloke come to my house today to measure it up for removal of old powdered insulation (prior to my getting new stuff put in).
Being “in roofing” he also did Batts when it was on. Suck up the old powdered insulation and put in new batts: a nice little earner for him. Claims to have been involved with “2,000” sites (although that sounded a bit of a stretch to me).
He agreed readily that the guidelines were clear, that it was “other” companies who rorted it. Said he did all the work himself (so subbinh out, so he could “keep an eye” on things), employing 8 new installers for the purpose. Also got BER work doing insulation in schools. Said that even when he wasn’t working on the BER, his competition was. Said the BER classrooms at his daughter’s school were “superb”. Couldn’t be faulted.
Agreed with me that the mining companies are getting their raw materials cheap. Should be taxed more.
Then told me he was still voting Liberal because the Coalition was a safer pair of hands to manage the economy, and he was worried that the mining companies, although stumping up, might be angry and go elsewhere for their dirt. Said Labor was too worried about “soft” things like old age care and education, when they should be worried about jobs. When I asked him what he thought the BER was all about, and the Batts scheme, he said he got my point, but there was too much waste. When I pointed out the “waste” was about half-a-percent of the total, he said that was too much, and that this was where Tony Abbott’s superior skills at economic management would come to the fore. He cited the “savings” they’ve made – $40 billion already and still two weeks to go – and the promise to can the NBN, as he didn’t “think we need it here”.
Nice young bloke, polite, courteous and focused. Agreed that everything the government had done was basically right, but could have been better. So he’s going to vote them out.
I’ve seen this disconnect between reality and perception in polling figure before, but this was the first holder of that position I’d met in the flesh.
Sheesh!
This is all by way of explanation as to why I’ve been sounding a bit down today. This guy frightened the bejesus out of me, and I haven’t been able to shake it off since.
[On brighter news, Fraser’s dump on Abbott has been a top story all day at the SMH website.]
Big Bob,
Malcolm or Bernie? Neither have been kind to Herr Abbott today.
Mal.
I’m in Pearce, so my vote in the Reps is neither here nor there. However, for what it’s worth:-
1. Greeens
2. Nats
3. CEC
4. FF
5. Christian Dems
6. ALP
7. Lib
So the ALP will get my vote but not until they’ve sweated for it.
In the Senate I’ll be voting above the line (a first for me) for the ASP, ‘cos their preference allocation is pretty close to what I’d be aiming for anyway.
Malcolm.
I almost forgave him for Whitlam for his honesty today. Almost.
nothing like hyperbole….
BER a monumental failure, Pyne says August 6, 2010 – 3:14PM
AAP
The government’s Building the Education Revolution (BER) scheme has been a monumental failure, opposition education spokesman Christopher Pyne says.
Frankie V
[That’s the cost of doing business in the third world, Pollyanna.]
Let’s rephrase that then.
What about your government waste looking for non
AWBWMD in Iraq?Those words occupy just as much on-air time as Julia Gillard arguing that it has been a success.
Both versions will be presented side-by-side, as a perfect example of “balanced coverage”.
exactly BB. its as though this “balance” somehow provides the truth.
Yeah, but check out the photo of Fraser the OO used.
[One of the world’s top economists says the fiscal stimulus package delivered in Australia during the global financial crisis was among the best designed in the world.
A report today found there are some valid concerns about the poor value for money on the school spending part of the package.
However, Nobel Prize laureate Joseph Stiglitz says there will always be some waste with such programs.
He says that is preferable to the waste of human and capital resources that would have resulted if there was no stimulus.
“You were lucky to have, probably, the best designed stimulus package of any of the countries, advanced industrial countries, both in size and in design, timing and how it was spent – and I think it served Australia well,” he said.
However, Professor Stiglitz also issued a precautionary warning to Australia about its mining boom, before wrapping up a speaking tour of Australia this weekend.
He says the resource boom must be monitored to ensure it does not squeeze other parts of the economy.
Professor Stiglitz says Australia should respond by intervening in the exchange rate to remain competitive, and he says a fund should be set up to hedge against volatility in resources prices.
“One of the reasons why it is very important to have a mining tax to get full revenue is that you need to set up stabilisation funds in order to protect yourself against the almost inevitable period in which those natural resources prices go down,” he explained.]
This should be burned into every idiot like Pyne’s forehead.
badseed @ 611
re: distress at pandering to outer suburban bogans instead of trying to educate them
sorry to quote you out of context, but trying to educate people on these particular matters is a very time consuming process.
in general, people are very mentally lazy. that is, it’s far more easier for a person to think in terms of generalizations, etc. why? psychological research demonstrates that humans have very limited cognitive resources; that is, a person can only focus their attention on a very finite number of stimuli. to deal with this, the brain tends tries to, more or less, categorize information. ‘categorizing’ information is beneficial because it enables us to not only efficiently encode information, it enables us to focus our attention or cognitive resources on other issues of interest. unfortunately, the process of categorization results in the paring down of information, and thus oversimplification.
also, because of this mental laziness, humans have the tendency to suspend their ‘judgement’ on issues that require a degree of mental energy and thus look to figures of authority or ‘experts’ as acceptable sources of information. unfortunately, issues such as physical appearance, the suggestiveness of the observer, authority, etc, are some of those factors that may influence whom we may regard as an expert.
therefore, because of the simplicity of messages like ‘labor = bad economic managers’, ‘asylum seekers = bad’, ‘climate change = expensive’ are far more easily absorbable than
labor = not so bad economic managers due to their response to the GFC’ or ‘climate change = tough decisions need to be made in order for us to combat and issue which is difficult for a lot of people to conceive’.
how long was howard in power, 11 years? that’s a LONG TIME to reinforce a particular message and narrative. and if not immediately countered, at takes a ridiculously long time to undo the affect; just think of how difficult it is to reverse a habit of yours that you don’t like.
with all these factors, for labor to reverse their political fortunes requires a MONUMENTAL amount of effort and resources.
One problem with the BER for the government is the spread of the program.
You have one big project, everybody can see for themselves what is happening.
With the BER, although the project at your school might be going nicely, you can well imagine that others are not.
With people banging on about how bad it is, you can easily form an opinion that your school is one of the few that went well.
If your’s is one of the few that has had problems, well, everybody must have had them too.
So, although we think it’s a big positive, I don’t know how much it will be in reality.
In this case, maybe it is too local?
BB @ 661
Here’s a better photo of Fraser.
MY SAY
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 2:12 pm | Permalink
“Bateman wish you would get your self in to a tiz about bread and butter issues in stead of latte issue.s (net filter)
My Say , to Greens bloggers there lattee issues they foolishly think is mainstream issues !
but 90% of aussie voters do not vote for them….which shows how out of touch these Greens Intelectuals become , and often finance secure in there public service paid jobs
Bushfire Bill@652, did he say who he voted for last time?
Anyone here mentioned that there’s a ‘shock new poll’ to be announced on Nine News tonight?
Get ready for more depression.
According to the other thread. There is a “shock poll” on channel 9 tonight.
What’s the point?
Point of what? 🙂 Polling?
We all know what “shock poll” means…
ltep,
It could be a shock the other way!
Actually, if it’s a shock to the journos, it should be pro ALP.
They have been saying it’s Abbott’s to lose for the past week or so.
[shock new poll]
Pfft. Unless Labor’s back in front it’ll hardly be a “shock” to anyone who’s been paying attention.
If its a Galaxy and its more than 52-48 either way that would be a shock. 🙂
Still, I’m weighing up my options for after the election.
Do you know you can get a vineyard & winery in Northern Italy for less than $500K?
Does anyone know if you can access your super when you emigrate? 😉
Those who are saying it’d be more of a shock if it were bad for Abbott, do you honestly believe that is the case?
We’ll have Laurie Oake’s ginormous arse on TV tonight pontificating why Labor are failures this week and why every bit of positive coverage we’ve gotten is wrong.
TSOP @ 676,
Nope, don’t know either way.
Still a chance it will be positive.
Told you so. The Telegraph says:
A government project, implemented in an extreme economy-threatening crisis, that has had a 97.3% success rate, and a wasteage factor of about half a per cent, is “another distraction for Ms. Gillard.” Her campaign is struggling, and a 97.3% successful campaign that saved 200,000 jobs will only add to her woes.
Fair dinkum, if Gillard demonstrated walking on water the Tele would run “Stunt won’t help PM, she’s full of herself: Abbott”.
it could be one seat.
So gloryconsequence’s source got it wrong?
itsthevibe, what was his/her “tip”?
The tip was better news for the ALP.
who knows itsthevibe? News sources always announce their polls as ‘shocks’. Remember the ‘shock new poll’ that turned out to be a Morgan 53/47?
in order for labor to have any hope in this election, they have to continually hammer home their message, day and night, over the next two weeks. it would also help if they had a degree of help from the non-murdoch news outlets. and if labor does win on the 21st of august, from the 22nd of august till the next election, they need to be ramming home their message.
That was days ago. How long do they hold onto these poll results before publishing?
Seems we got a TRIPLE parallell here
PBers point out PRESSERS of fair dinkum Abbott/Liberal lies and reel Labor positive polisys
MSN from thsoe Pressers point pro Abbott/Liberal views & present Labor polisys negative
But Public only allocate about 20 minutes daily to TV Radio and papers but its from MSN
And people foolishly say here Labor does not ‘sell’ its polisys , it rarely gets chanse to !
Imagine if Labor does win – the hacks on ABCNEWS 24 will be wearing glum expressions. 😀
A good poll for Labor will be attributed to 2 things:
1. Rudd
2. Abbott’s cockiness/arrogance backfiring on the Libs. 🙂
[Imagine if Labor does win – the hacks on ABCNEWS 24 will be wearing glum expressions.]
They’ll pretend they knew it was going to happen all along. If we have a net loss of even one seat, the talking point will be how bad it was that we managed to make an election that should’ve been a walk, so competitive…
Another thing missing for the ALP in this campaign, which worked incredibly well for Howard in incumbency, is the government advertising budget.
I know we generally all support the notion of government ads being truly for information, not party purposes, but it has to have had an effect on this campaign.
Howard’s government always looked like it was doing something to the average person – why? Not because they communicated any better as a political party, but because they deluged people with ads authorised by the Australian government.
This isn’t a call for returning to those days, I don’t miss them at all, but I think their effect on the voting population has been forgotten.
@ to speak of pebbles, 676:
from what he’s written over the last few days, i think mssr oakes has hardened against abbott. but labor require other news outlet to harden against abbott as well.
what would be particularly effective is if labor were positive about their own record, and a news outlet targeting TA. that may, there’s less chance of labor’s product being associated with negativity.
A final point on government advertising – you can be sure that an Abbott government will advertise it’s ring off.
When writs is issued for an election , labor in theory would be better off with a media black out from that point to poll day
cann’t blame public for fact only news they ever get is slanted one way
[This is all by way of explanation as to why I’ve been sounding a bit down today. This guy frightened the bejesus out of me, and I haven’t been able to shake it off since.]
BB its called brainwashing as your Telegraph item later illustrated. I still can’t fathom why the MSM would promote someone as backward as Abbott. Broadband, health, parental leave, education – every policy is against progress. Listening to Grattan today she is so determined to find fault with Labor and excuse Abbott. Why? I just can’t see why they are promoting someone with so little talent.
[from what he’s written over the last few days, i think mssr oakes has hardened against abbott. but labor require other news outlet to harden against abbott as well.
what would be particularly effective is if labor were positive about their own record, and a news outlet targeting TA. that may, there’s less chance of labor’s product being associated with negativity.]
You’re right. And I may be wrong about the poll. It’s just I have been working my arse off and, even when stuck with a virus, have still been a busybody (just an exiled one.) It’s depressing when the polls are just telling you that it’s all for nothing.
The worst part is, for the first time I can recall, I can’t gauge the feel of the electorate (normally SA is a good test for the national mood) but this time it’s too good here and too hard to tell.
if people want information, they can watch a documentary.
government advertising is to remind jo & flo why the government should stay in power. because if the government doesn’t , the opposition will do so when they are returned to power.
hairy nose
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 4:00 pm | Permalink
” I still can’t fathom why the MSM would promote someone as backward as Abbott.”
MSN suport Liberal Party no matter who is leader
Get reel , MSN wuld support Liberal Party even if Liberal leader was Barnaby Joyce
This is how I will vote in Hasluck ( I will be doing a pre poll from Hong Kong next week).
1. Greens
2. Labor
3. Liberal
4. Independent
Then some real dross
5. Christian Democrats
6. Family First
7. Climate Sceptics.
For the senate I will number below the box (cos it’s fun :-))
Greens, Sex Party, Labor, Secular Party, Nationals, Liberals, Socialist Allce, Carers Allce, Democrats, Lib Democrats.
Then a bunch of independents followed by dregs,
DLP, Shooters and Fishers, Christian Democrats, CEC
And for my finale I will number the last two parties both alternatley and in reverse,
Family First and Climate Sceptics.
[Nick Champion, Labor]
Vomit.
Meanwhile, will Labor learn its lesson if it wins the election? Will it take the opportunity post-election to restore some sort of competition in the media industry and promote a diversity of voices? Will it clean out the right wingnuts from the ABC board? Or will it roll over next time Rupert picks up the phone about softening up anti-siphoning laws?
@ to speak of pebbles,
re:
“The worst part is, for the first time I can recall, I can’t gauge the feel of the electorate (normally SA is a good test for the national mood) but this time it’s too good here and too hard to tell.”
that’s the affect of 11 years of howard and the part played by news ltd.