The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).
Two weeks to go Itep.
has there been a neilson or did you mean if
my say,
There you go, it’s another Abbott health promise that just doesn’t stack up, but will get the headline he is after in a marginal seat.
By the time someone points out the problems, the caravan is way down the road.
Gillard shoudl come out welcoming the High Court decision on the electoral laws, and remind people that Howard introduced them against Labor opposition. It shows Howard’s deeply undemocratic nature, and reflects poorly on his biggest fan, Tony Abbott. Ask Abbott if he supported Howard’s undemocratic laws? If not, why didn’t he say anything at the time? I suspect he did say something, in favour of them.
BH #588 …thanks for the info….think I will have had several very long drinks before watching the poll result, will bring on either a deep fit of depression or hopefully woops of joy. Imthinking positive but it is not easy.
itsthevibe 599
Even if just through preferences, your vote is aiding in getting Kate reelected. For that, you are elevated to superawesome in status! 🙂
[601 Bushfire Bill
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 2:47 pm | Permalink
Bushfire, it’d only]
before kevin speech and then we had essential after that
That’s a nice piece of work on the fly BB 586, maybe the Possum can give us the full modelling?
(I’m trying to think of a suitable clever economic modelling joke to put in here – “I am the Walras” might be a little obscure and tangential?)
So much easier to say that the Report “has recommended the BER should cease.”
I need a B double-E R.
If there is a change in the polls it will be purely as a result of no leaks. I doubt there will be much change at all in Nielsen.
Newspoll on Monday will be the one that moves, purely becuase people are getting the snits with zero target Tone.
Ahh, the Whirlpool aka ‘Whingepool’ crowd – most of them would vote for whoever gave them a 100gb free internet connection.
But just to summarise, for most people I’ve spoken to whilst campaigning for the Greens in Melbourne, the big issues have been:
Good For Labor:
stimulus / no recession
NBN
school computers (lots of government schools in the area)
gillard’s ascension
Bad for Labor:
climate change, lack of action (people don’t blame the greens, no matter what you diehard ALP types are saying).
internet filter
‘east timor’ solution – distress at pandering to outer suburban bogans instead of trying to educate them.
increasing annoyance over state issues – public transport etc – may confirm a vote change, but probably wouldn’t shift a vote on its own.
I think on the 2PP Rudd helping Gillard would help a abit against Abbott, especially when Rudd said we must stop Abbott becoming PM.
How I will be voting in Wakefield
1. Nick Champion, Labor
2. Jane Alcorn, Green
3. Darren Hassan, Democrat
4. David Strauss, Liberal
5. Paul Coombe, Family First
Bigbob that is exactly the scam Howard used to slide into power in 1996. No scrutiny tons of last minute policy. Now Robb will be rehearsing his lines about why all the figures haven’t been submitted to Treasury by today as promised.
Who was thwe plaintiff/respondent? The AEC?
Expect Abbott to say, “Julia Gillard’s own government fought this case right up to the High Court. If Julia Gillard can’t stop GetUp!, how can she stop the boats?”
there was a man in the know and he said he felt nothing positive in polls till
MONDAY this week.
Pebbles.
How could you POSSIBLY put Family First last!
badseed, it is completely unsurprising that people would talk to Greens campaigners on ‘Green’ issues. If a Liberal campaigner went and talked to people on the streets they’d get people talking to them about taxes, Gillard ‘knifing’ Rudd etc.
steve,
There is no way they are putting their policies into treasury – it just won’t happen.
They’ll wear a few days of nasty questions from journos (HA!, as if), in order to not have the auhority of treasury rip them a new one.
It’s better than putting Family Last first.
597 – Bob, they fell in a hole pretty quickly once Julia announced/ renounced climate change and after the debate. Mind you, I do concede that was an extraordinary week with the leaks and all.
I’m just worried is all. There’s a cycle here on PB –
the anticipation of the next poll sees optimisim.
Lately though, there’s been wailing afterwards (including myself here btw);
then a little denial and saying it isn’t too bad;
to saying there’s a turning point here and there;
to pointing out it’s the Libs under the kosh not us
to anitcipation again,
to another crap poll.
It worries me because, frankly, that was the Libs three years ago.
[Pebbles.
How could you POSSIBLY put Family First last!]
Because whoever gets put last or second last on that ticket makes no difference, so I can use that spot to protest against religious fundamentalists. I have no love for FF, except when they may take the Libs’ 3rd Senate place this year. Otherwise, they can go die.
Burgey, the difference is that the Libs were feeling optimistic 3 years ago when the polls were 55/45 or 53/47 instead of 59/41.
Burgey,
The polls aren’t good but they are neck and neck still.
I have no idea what’s in store.
If it’s a blowout, the ALP is probably sunk.
If they are still in the range of 51:49 either way, well, there still a good chance.
BB
[Who was thwe plaintiff/respondent? The AEC?
Expect Abbott to say, “Julia Gillard’s own government fought this case right up to the High Court. If Julia Gillard can’t stop GetUp!, how can she stop the boats?”]
Caretaker convention means its not Labor’s fault. Labor’s correcting legislation waiting in parliament means only Liberal stalling is to blame. Remember how they tried to drag things out in recent months.
A positive poll would be very nice. Considering all the positives so far this week have been qualitative, it would be nice to see that reflected quantitatively.
[Pebbles.
How could you POSSIBLY put Family First last!
Because whoever gets put last or second last on that ticket makes no difference, so I can use that spot to protest against religious fundamentalists. I have no love for FF, except when they may take the Libs’ 3rd Senate place this year. Otherwise, they can go die.]
Pebbles
I always vote below the line and start from the bottom up. Family First and their ilk are the first to get the flick.
Possum’s Friday Betting Report:
[Over the last week we’ve seen the implied probabilities of an ALP election win reduce dramatically by an average of 11.4%, which is the biggest weekly movement we’ve seen in the markets for some considerable time.While all agencies moved in the same direction, there as quite a spread with Sportsbet leading the pack with a 13.5% change while Betfair moved the least with a 7.5% change.]
Burgey – Possum reckons we can’t make any real assumptions on the polls this weekend. Need to see them through next week first.
I don’t expect Neilsen to be much different – the past week hasn’t had much in the way of negatives for Abbott because he’s run away from everything.
Doesn’t matter… if that’s what’s reported. Another gotcha.
Then the talk will be around how Abbott was a little bit loose with the truth of the situation (tee-hee), and that caretaker governments of course can’t fight court battles, and that the AEC is a statutory body, and finally how these electoral actions originate in (i.e. don’t have to be fought all the way up to) the High Court, as it is the court of first resort, and so on. And then, “putting all that aside for the moment”, the commentary will go on to how Tony Abbott’s accusation, completely false thought it may be, will be perceived in the electorate with only 14 days to go, in a campaign that has so far been a train wreck for the government. Is this a sign that the media is more interested in “the contest” than the issues, to which the panel will all say, “No, no, no… of course not… this is just more Labor desperation, blaming the messenger.”
See if I’m wrong.
My line in retort would be “It’s not the government’s role to actively try and suppress votes”
To Speak of Pebbles @ 585
[You’re friends with Batman?]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNCoZIRKutA
Hey Abbort you jerk.
Compare the small amount of waste in the BER, that is if it is really waste as we have buildings in schools as proof that we got something for it, with what you and your profligate Government wasted for us a few years ago. You are nothing but a CHARLATAN Mr Abbort.
Costellos $4bil-$6bil gold giveaway.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/4048/no-prophet-cossies-multi-billion-dollar-gold-blunder/
Regional rorts.
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/genpdf/chamber/hansards/2008-02-14/0162/hansard_frag.pdf;fileType%3Dapplication%2Fpdf
Sea sprite helicoptors.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/05/2180394.htm
That is only part of it.
What about your Govt waste in advertising?
What about your Govt wasted AWB bribes?
What about your Govt waste transporting Howard to Canberra and back from Kirribilli?
How much would have been wasted if we had an extra 350,000 unemployed on the dole without the BER under your rabble?
We can’t get these comparisons in to the MSM mr Abbort as they are not willing to tell the truth about you so you can slide in to the PM chair.
You Sir are a disgrace to the people of Australia.
[The thing is, I have absolutely no desire to preach Labor to them – I’m too busy promoting Adam Bandt and Dr Richard Di Natale around the seat of Melbourne at the moment. Most of my friends live in either this seat, or Batman.]
typical green lalal land answer
Nice point: it’s about 1/4 of what Howard spent spruiking the failed Work Choices legislation that was so roundly rejected at the 2007 election.
Better still might be Stiglitz’s line: “Better to waste a few million dollars than to waste a whole economy” while you’re dotting i’s and crossing t’s so you can pass the OO‘s “gotcha” test.
On brighter news, Fraser’s dump on Abbott has been a top story all day at the SMH website.
Unsurprisingly the sock sniffers think Labor are the real bad guys for the 2006 electoral law changes and the fact the high court had to shoot it down. (Fortunately that BS rhetoric has been minimal here)
Voting in Kingsford-Smith?
1) Labor – I vote for the party in this case, not the person. Who is a joke.
.
.
.
something, something, darkside…
Then Greens/Libs – although the Lib guy seems an OK guy
I wish I could vote for the guy I saw downstairs a while ago(MMM is in our complex) – RAMPAGING ROY SLAVEN!!!
The only man to ever kick a field goal from the sin bin!
So little good stuff of what Julia G says gets reported on SBS, ABC or Sky which are the only news outlets for us.
Gaffhook @ 633
[What about your Govt wasted AWB bribes?]
That’s the cost of doing business in the third world, Pollyanna.
[year. Otherwise, they can go die.
Pebbles
I always vote below the line and start from the bottom up. Family First and their ilk are the first to get the flick.]
welll you can imagine what tas sen always comes last here i love doing it
only wish it occurred every three years
BH that’s the beauty of TV Ads – pay your money and tell your story.
[Friday, August 6, 2010 at 3:10 pm | Permalink
On brighter news, Fraser’s dump on Abbott has been a top story all day at the SMH website.]
has it had lots of traffic
Roy Orbison, did you like Midnight Oil’s music? If so, do you still?
I’m not picking on you. I’m just curious if those who, for one reason or another, dislike Peter Garrett MP have changed their opinion of him as a musician in the process.
Well, I just checked the AEC site and my change of electorate doesn’t appear to have gone through.
So, I won’t be voting in Casey, it’ll still be Denison.
2 – WILKIE, Andrew Independent
1 – JACKSON, Jonathan Australian Labor Party
3 – BARNES, Mel
5 – SIMPKINS, Cameron John
4 – COUSER, Geoffrey Alan
I’ll have to fill in a postal vote.
SMH headline says “School building costs blew out by 12 per cent, taskforce finds ” . Story says “up to 12%” then admits range between 0 and 12 (that would be what “up to” means of course. Anyone know how to actually get a comment published on or noticed by the SMH re this sort of disgraceful spin?
I get to Donkey Vote in Fairfax 😆
McINTYRE, Dan Australian Labor Party
McCARTHY, Narelle Louise The Greens
HUNT, Ron Family First
SOMLYAY, Alex Liberal National Party of Queensland
BB
You may be right but that is a sector of the media that is already lost, and appeals to the 30% who will never vote anything but blue. Personally I don’t read them. Middle of the road journos will report this and it will influence people, because it should remind those who have forgotten Howard what Abbott will be like. Even if its 1%, its 1% to the good.
Also I did hint that people shoudl go bakc and check what Howard’s chief attack dog, Tony Abbott, said when this was going through parliament. IIRC he wasn’t silent.
Latest from ABC News 24 ticker: “After miscarriage, best to try again soon: study.”
To be fair, there has been good coverage of the High Court decision and the BER stuff.