As expected, Morgan has come good on voting intetion results from the phone poll for which a teaser was offered yesterday, and it shows Labor opening up a commanding 55.5-44.5 two-party lead. Morgan has also published a similar result from its routine weekend face-to-face polling, which has Labor’s lead up to 55-45 from 53.5-46.5 the previous week. Labor traditionally does better from Morgan’s face-to-face polling, so either there’s some statistical noise here or Labor has gained ground in the first week of the campaign. On the face-to-face poll, Labor leads 44.5 per cent (up 4 per cent) to 39.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent) on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent). On the phone poll, the figures are 44 per cent for Labor, 38.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. The samples were 719 for the phone poll and 871 for the face-to-face, with respective margins of error of about 3.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent.
UPDATE: Via Twitter via Frank Calabrese in comments, we learn of an Illawarra Mercury poll showing the Liberals well ahead in their marginal south coast NSW seat of Gilmore. Past experience suggests this will be an IRIS poll with a small sample of 300 and a big margin of error of 7 per cent.
Grrr! This programme on before Lateline is annoying me! What is the appeal of listening to a bunch of older women whinge about everything? I have seen this programme before, as well as the male version. I just don’t get its bloody point…
590 One of the mysteries about the Greens is how they make decisions. But there are certainly examples of where Bob Brown has not got his way. But equally for someone who has been at the forefront of Green politics before most of his supporters were born – its not surprising that he’s seen as an “elder”.
blackburn, you realise what we have now is not markedly different to what we had announced prior to today. Under Rudd the plan was just to delay the start of the CPRS until ‘at least 2012’.
Oh dear, Toolman and Shananananana on Hateline.
Boerwar@596
And it gives ordinary a say in the process – something the Greens are scared of.
So much for their mantra of “Grassroots Politics”.
S
Your second sentence has, perhaps, an error?
[Todays announcement has really pissed me off – frankly is Julia Gillard scared to govern? if so, get out of the kitchen, and let somebody else take the heat.]
If I had said that I would have been accused of being sexist(to add to all the other insults I been called)
Julia Gillard is just like Rudd, she was making all the decisions with Rudd when he was in power remember this is just business as usual for Labor.
Chris Uhlmann says Westpoll tomorrow will show Canning is “gettable” for Labor.
TSOP
I loved the old men’s one (they had good irony and self-deprecation) but somehow or other the old women’s one came across as shrill.
Boerwar
You have a point there … just another sympton of the race for the bottom. Sad really.
OMG, has anyone else looked at the Morgan results and Mr. Abbot’s trumpeting about being the next PM and laughed like a drain? I know I did.
On Julia Guillard’s announcement today, I took it to be a strategic manouvre to have both a panel of scientists and a citizens assembly to work through to a consensus. I don’t know if it will work, but something has to be tried to nullify the garbage that’s emanating from the deniers and the stupids of the MSM.
William
Ah ha
the fibs have raised the white flag
If you gave the Greens a collective enema you could fit them in a matchbox.
That would be a real bonus William. I don’t think many would bet on it though.
TTH
Don’t be silly, sexism in that context is only another of your red herring(s).
*thinks, what is the plural of ‘herring’?
Centrebet is saying Canning is safe as houses
why does someone as partisan as Shanahan get an unchallenged rant on Lateline – Howard’s legacy of stacking the ABC board pays off.
herringk?
Lwp @ 613
That is a very interesting collection of mixed metaphors you have there!
[The 70% or so who think action is needed will carry the day. I am quite optimistic.]
Where is the 70% support for action on climate change; not the feel good of ticking a box in a survey but support for draft legislation? The ETS legislation only had a tiny majority support at its best and that support eroded over time.
Is you optimism for the bark beetles?
Hi all
Long time lurker blah blah blah
Just wanted to offer my view on CC and todays announcement.
Only very recently (around november last year), there were headlines proclaiming the electorate favoured a delay in the ETS. Taking this at face value, it seems that voters did not want an ETS when there was the very real prospect of one being introduced and costing them. This in my (and many others) opinion was due to the government not doing enough to explain the scheme. This was enough for the dark forces in the coalition to strike and appeal to this sense of doubt in the community.
Now we all know how things panned out…the scheme was delayed and Rudd’s stocks plumetted. It wasnt the popularity of scheme itself as the cause for Rudd’s poll hit, rather it was the decision to delay (or abandon if you believe some commentators) in the face of words like “the greatest moral challenge” (among other things like the BER and insulation beatups).
So now we have a situation where we are told the electorate favours a price on carbon at a time where there is no real prospect on one being introduced in the near term.
It seems to me that on this issue the voter is a fickle beast. Where there is the perception of a cost to the individual for action, they go cold. When they feel safe from a hit to the personal budget, theyre all for it.
This is where the concept of a community consensus is sound. People need to understand the scheme, how it works and also why it is important to take action for long term benefit even if it means a small increase in prices of certain things in the short term.
Julia could have anounced a price on carbon, and the elecorate would once again swing to the no ETS camp in the face of the “great big new tax” crap. It seems they need to be in posession of the facts first before they can make a truly informed judgement rather than jumping to emotive conclusions based on scare tactics.
I believe the government is committed to a price on carbon, and knows that the only way it can prosecute this is to develop a sense of ownership among the communtiy.
Anyway – enough from me. Love this site, Ive been reading daily since before the last election.
Keep up the good work
This election is starting to feel like the 2006 SA state election…
G
haringen
It’s Time
I am extremely optimistic about bark beetles – as long as they don’t get stuck in all those melting roads.
[Centrebet is saying Canning is safe as houses]
With 4 weeks to go, if the polls in Canning improve for Labor, those odds will change.
[And it gives ordinary a say in the process – something the Greens are scared of. ]
What? 150 people “have a say”? Who are you kidding, Frank? It’s tokenism when leadership is required.
TSOP
You speak in tongues… why South Australia 2006?
There have got to be a lot of coalition seats where the odds will change if the overall vote remains where it is now. Canning, Boothby and Sturt will be among them.
It’s Time
In your terms, the Greens have shown leadership.
Now, where will they be after the election?
BOP in the Senate and maybe a couple of seats in the lower house.
The thing about leadership is that it can get you shot when you are crossing that rough bit between the trenches.
[You speak in tongues… why South Australia 2006?]
Just the opposition limping out of the gate, the general apathy and lack of desire for change…
It’s starting to feel like 2006.
Still got 4 weeks though…
It’s Time@626
Rubbish
It is Ciommunity Consultation – something the Greens Scream for, this time they are shitting bricks cos it may well give them a result they don’t like.
[Chris Uhlmann says Westpoll tomorrow will show Canning is “gettable” for Labor.]
William: what’s your view? Is Canning a realistic seat for Labor to hope for?
[Centrebet is saying Canning is safe as houses]
Hmmm. That looks tasty.
[Julia could have anounced a price on carbon, and the elecorate would once again swing to the no ETS camp in the face of the “great big new tax” crap.]
We can\’t base big decisions like this on what the voters say they want at a given time. If that is the case we will put a price on carbon and then remove it whenever the economy slows, which would be stupid.
Mustard Tiger, much like my thoughts. Slowly, slowly, and all that.
On the lateline panel tonight we have Dennis Shanahan playing devils advocate for Labors prospects at the election, and Chris Uhlman playing devils advocate for Labors prospects at the election.
I am warming to shamaham
🙂
confessions@632
With Allanah MacTiernan running and her track record as a State Labor Minister with several infrastructure projects like the Perth to Mandurah train line – of course she is 🙂
[On the lateline panel tonight we have Dennis Shanahan playing devils advocate for Labors prospects at the election, and Chris Uhlman playing devils advocate for Labors prospects at the election.]
That is why, it should be called Hateline.
finns
i thought envyline
😉
[Centrebet is saying Canning is safe as houses]
While I am not disagreeing, betting is a dangerous thing to hang your hopes on.
There are always loses as well as winners on the punt.
Favorites are made by two things — a lot of people thinking they will win, but also the momentum of money going on in a chunk/or several bets in quick succession.
Betting in individual seats will be a lot less reliable than overall election betting because of the smaller pool where one big bet can change the favoritism esily.
Finns!
Do your and yours feel threatened now octopodes are widely regarded as the marine world’s most intelligent creatures?
I called it! They’re gonna set up impossibly high expectations for Gillard in the debate, so that she inevitably fails!
Hi Greentard
What Im saying is that voters need to be in possesion of the facts – they are sensitive to missinformation. When this happens, the opposing forces will have no support.
TSOP
Not to worry. Annelids always do their own thing. Even when they are cut in half.
Why do we only ever see Shanahan on Lateline and never on Insiders? I’ll put it to you that sunlight has a deliquescent effect on him.
Stateline on Hasluck:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/07/23/2963000.htm
[Why do we only ever see Shanahan on Lateline and never on Insiders?]
Because the ABC is biased.
frank
wa 2-4 gain
the bonus is yet to come
[It is Ciommunity Consultation –]
It’s not community consultation. It’s a focus group. It’s tokenism.