Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 55-45 face-to-face

As expected, Morgan has come good on voting intetion results from the phone poll for which a teaser was offered yesterday, and it shows Labor opening up a commanding 55.5-44.5 two-party lead. Morgan has also published a similar result from its routine weekend face-to-face polling, which has Labor’s lead up to 55-45 from 53.5-46.5 the previous week. Labor traditionally does better from Morgan’s face-to-face polling, so either there’s some statistical noise here or Labor has gained ground in the first week of the campaign. On the face-to-face poll, Labor leads 44.5 per cent (up 4 per cent) to 39.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent) on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent). On the phone poll, the figures are 44 per cent for Labor, 38.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. The samples were 719 for the phone poll and 871 for the face-to-face, with respective margins of error of about 3.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent.

UPDATE: Via Twitter via Frank Calabrese in comments, we learn of an Illawarra Mercury poll showing the Liberals well ahead in their marginal south coast NSW seat of Gilmore. Past experience suggests this will be an IRIS poll with a small sample of 300 and a big margin of error of 7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 55-45 face-to-face”

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  1. Don Randall is one of the more odious members of the Coalition, so it’d be great if Alannah could knock him off. 😉
    And…..has anyone considered that Boothby could be a sleeper, in a wake of today’s poll in Kingston?
    Would the right wing nuts care that much if Southcott lost? 😉

  2. It’s Time
    I do hope they chose me. I would love to be a part of it. I know that the odds must be around 100,000 to one. But gee, wouldn’t it be grand?

  3. [And…..has anyone considered that Boothby could be a sleeper, in a wake of today’s poll in Kingston?]
    I\’ve heard the Greens are doing well in Boothby.

  6. A few more polls and the libs will lose any enthusiasm they might have left.

    Has anyone noticed that the LIbs are putting on more as than Labor (or am I watching the wrong channels?) And they are all negative ads? Even the one with Abbott speaking to stand up etc. etc. it is all about what they are against.

    Didn’t they learn any lessons from last time?

  8. I don’t get why everyone, it seems, is so hung up on the Citizens Assembly. I would have thought the more important bit is the scientific panel part of the strategy. Every time some Bolt or Monkton afficianado says something unscientific, as they will, the scientists can de-bunk it, loudly. I hope.

  10. [And…..has anyone considered that Boothby could be a sleeper, in a wake of today’s poll in Kingston?
    Would the right wing nuts care that much if Southcott lost?]

    There is a lot of confidence here for a Labor pick up of both Boothby and Sturt.

  13. Laocoon,

    [scorpio at 469

    Liberal campaign offices are usually left very much to their own devices as regards local campaigning goes.

    I know for a fact that they “depend” on sites like PB, Possums, Aristotle’s, Political Sword and LP just for polling information alone. They get nothing in that regard from the central campaign office and they certainly get ideas for their “local” electorate campaigns from these sites.]

    [If that is true, Liberals truly deserve to lose the election on the basis of organisational incompetence.]

    Internal polling doesn’t get much further than the central campaign office and a handful of trusted lieutenants. That goes for Labor also. The Lib candidate here last election found out about the leaked Crosby Textor Report from Possum’s site.

    It was quickly passed on to others but I don’t think it made them feel any better about their chances! 😉

    The ar$eholes having a shot at me don’t have a clue what they are bagging me for and I refuse to cop it any more.

    There won’t be too much election intelligence passed on by me from now on. I learnt a valuable lesson tonight.

    Smartar$es rule supreme here.

  17. HSO
    The scientists have been debunking the Monctons of the world since the year dot. But when the ABC and the Australian give them space, as both organisations did with Moncton, people take them a little bit seriously.
    If you put all Moncton’s bits and pieces together you would be forgiven for forming the opinion that he was a nutter. None of the nutty stuff was reported by either the Australian or by the ABC.

  18. Sorry late to the party.
    TAB cola “less than two calories”.
    It was actually a pretty good drink too.
    Ah Elle, so many adolescent memories…
    Memories memories see me through.

  19. evan14@662

    Julia will be in Dickson tomorrow.
    Phoney in Perth still dog whistling about boat people.

    Phoney speaking to the Faithful at the Truncated Liberal State Conference – hoping to have Barnett’s influence rub off.

    Though Barnett is now started to lose his shine somewhat re the cold weather and the rises in Gas and Power Bills and Pensioners not able to afford heating.

  20. [Pyne was crowing about the Greens not distributing preferences to Labor in Sturt]

    Doesn’t mean the Green voters will preference him. As moderate as he may be, he is a part of an ultraconservative opposition…

  23. Tony abbott says “we already have a citizens assembly, its called a parliament” Its a shame he is only recognising that now, having been the architect of the demise of the CPRS despite a mandate at the 2007 election.

  25. Evan 14 – do we know whether the Greens in Unley will still be considering their HTV card or are they already saying that its 1 Greens and then as you wish?

  27. Scorpio, I’ve only lately caught up, and not with everything that’s gone down here, but can you tell me what the problem is?

  28. [Tony abbott says “we already have a citizens assembly, its called a parliament” Its a shame he is only recognising that now, having been the architect of the demise of the CPRS despite a mandate at the 2007 election.]

    Exactly — some of the lazy press should ask him why that is.

  29. There is a lot of confidence here for a Labor pick up of both Boothby and Sturt.

    Confidence or enthusiasm?

    Bit of both really. It appears the Libs have given up on making a gain here for the time being (of course if they start doing well elsewhere they may put more focus on here), with Kingston, Hindmarsh etc. looking safe, the local Libs are left to defend their existing seats.

  32. [There is a lot of confidence here for a Labor pick up of both Boothby and Sturt.]

    I’ve got two Boothby voters in my house right now and two more only a phone call away.
    All of them get around in differing demographic circles in Boothby.

    Will be interesting to hear their opinion of Labor picking it up. Although what the two mentioned to me about the good Dr cultivating the seniors vote doesn’t instil confidence.

  33. [None of the nutty stuff was reported by either the Australian or by the ABC.]
    I think Robin Williams did some in The Science Show just after the ABC MD said he wanted more balance.

  37. Am respectfully curious about something Glen. If you’ve turned in your Liberal card, why do you sound as if the Lib candidates are good mates?

    If you don’t want Abbott for PM, couldn’t you at least sound like it?

  38. Harry “Snapper” Organs,

    [Scorpio, I’ve only lately caught up, and not with everything that’s gone down here, but can you tell me what the problem is?]

    I’ve had crap put on me all night and I’ve had enough of it. It might seem funny to some but not to me.

  39. lefty e@684

    ALP: building consensus on the Titanic. Please be patient while focus group approves iceberg report.

    Grrens scared of real people giving an opinon – scared they won’t like the result.

  41. Well, in Dr Southcott’s defence, he is an excellent local campaigner when he is under the pump. It definitely will be a big challenge to bring him down, but I’m confident. Hopefully a little later in the campaign Julia will come to town to woo voters.

  42. Glen@690

    Jackson is a do nothing MP.
    Ken Wyatt will be the first indigenous member of the House of Reps and a Lib

    Rubbish and you KNOW it.

    Once a Lib, ALWAYS a Lib.

  43. I heard the Liberal candidate for Hasluck today seriously informing the ABC he has a business background because he trapped rabbits as a kid.

  45. ALP: a more humanitarian raised middle finger.

    (Just floating a few improvements on moving fwd, guys. Work with me here!)

  46. [If you’ve turned in your Liberal card, why do you sound as if the Lib candidates are good mates?

    If you don’t want Abbott for PM, couldn’t you at least sound like it?]

    Jen my posts have been roundly critical of Tony Abbott. Perhaps you dont recognise my attacks on Abbott as PB is just one attack after another on him so nothing out of the ordinary.

    If I see a decent candidate I’ll back em and Ken is by all accounts one of those people I hope succeeds.

    Also I havent got an alternative side to support (centre-right).
    I dont want Abbott as PM and I dont want Gillard as PM.
    I’m having to vote Tory at this election because a third party (like the VVD in Holland or the FDP in Germany) doesnt exist so I havent got a choice.

    I’m enjoying being critical of both sides of politics 😀

  48. Fulvio Sammut@693

    I heard the Liberal candidate for Hasluck today seriously informing the ABC he has a business background because he trapped rabbits as a kid.

    As illustrated in that Stateline story I posted earlier.

    Plus he’s been nothing more in his adult life as a Public Servant 🙂

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