The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.
UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.
Further polling factoids:
• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.
• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.
• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.
aren’t we all glad that Howard isn’t around to snear at protestors anymore… he certainly wasn’t a fan of the public making their thoughts be known.
protestors arent the silent majority MM.
Gillard’s new Quango puts her on the same level of PMs like Jim Hacker MP.
Yep, the mandate is already there, has been since 2007. What we need is leadership.
hang on….isnt this why the public went off Rudd?
How often can Libs screech about “the boats are coming, the boats are coming” before they make themselves sick?
did i say that Glen?
Young Liberals were protesting at QU.
Ha! I turn the tv on, and the first thing I hear is WTTE: “While the Prime Minister is focussing on climate change today, for Tony Abbott the focus will be on the mining tax and asylum seekers…..”
Gillarde announces a policy, Abbott revisits the same old ground he’s been tramping for about four months now, with nothing new to say about it.
Says it all, really.
MM you said he didnt like the public telling him what to do.
You were right that he didnt like protestors remember the big cow?
The silent majority rarely does publicly though.
Oh for the days of Howard 🙁 when the Tories used to stand for things and also had things called policies and leadership.
Glen,
I read this policy as formally abandoning the 5% cut in emmissions which Australia committed to at Copenhagen regardless of the state of the international arena.
Mark Simkin says the Rudd NSC story came from within the ALP.
Come on guys, what part of “someone leaked internally against Rudd” is really so difficult to believe at this point?
I’m so shocked!
Young Libs and Greens – looks about a boatloads worth.
I didnt say that either Glen. I said he didnt like the public making their thoughts known. He was dismissive of protestors of nearly any ilk. thats the only point i was making.
Laocoon @ 76
[At around the time of him being deposed, I recall reading a story in the AFR that bureaucrats were horrified at the prospect of Rudd becoming defence or foreign minister. It seems to me that senior bureaucrats at defence (and possibly foreign affairs) would be keen to ensure that Rudd was too damaged goods.]
Yes, indeed – disgruntled public servants are almost certainly the source for this non story, and the ABC have attempted to boost this tripe into a ‘gamechanger’ to underpin the ratings of their ABC 24 against the Masterchef juggernaut.
This is a perfect example of sleazy journalism – create a story based on leaks from within Cabinet sub committees via whingeing bureaucrats in the knowledge that Government members will not comment on ‘cabinet in confidence’ discussions, thereby making them look to the uninitiated as if they are hiding something. Murdoch Media 101 complete with the loaded ‘when did you stop beating your wife’ question.
Caroline Overington let the cat out of the bag on this sort of gutter journo tactic on SkyNews recently when she gloated over Laurie Oakes’ ‘bombshell’ question to PM Gillard at the NPC last week as being ‘a classic example of how journalism should work.’
The media are without shame, and without scruple ….
[I read this policy as formally abandoning the 5% cut in emmissions which Australia committed to at Copenhagen regardless of the state of the international arena.]
Yes that\’s completely sad. And also Gillard said that there will be more coal power stations which means she just isn\’t serious about climate change.
Looks like a bad move by gillard.
Press are going a bit feral.
[BernardKeane so we’ve got an election between two parties, neither of which is fit to govern half a minute ago via TweetDeck]
[sspencer_63 Gillard says all new power stations will have to meet best practice standards. I assume that means existing and under construction won’t? 4 minutes ago via web]
Watch the labor primary vote dive. Once more with feeling….
are peeps still trying to squeeze some juice from the ABC24 beatup?
Wow
Clutching at straws by strawmen
🙁
Vitriol Trioli commenting again on how tired Julia looks and sounds.
TBS
and cojones
All we hear is the tinkling of his master voice
admittedly muffled a bit
[Oh for the days of Howard when the Tories used to stand for things and also had things called policies and leadership.]
Looks like Arbib is yet to learn his focus group lessons.
Well I listened to the ABC go on on about Rudd this and Rudd that. I was left wondering, are they trying to help the Liberals and have screwed up big time, or help Labor justify making JG prime minister. The story itself is so dam old it really doesn’t help the ABC’s reputation. If this is channel 24 future it really isn’t going to add much to public life.
Channel 2 had the colbert report, now that is a show worth watching, but I suppose you have to know who Rush Limbaugh is, how big a following he has and how big an idiot he is.
The Advertiser Kingston poll only heightens my anticipation of Denis Shanahan starting to talk about The Narrowing. Which he will. Oh, how he will.
Bushfire Bill @72: Best post EVER! Where do I send money?
[He was dismissive of protestors of nearly any ilk.]
Yes I agree with you MM on the point of dismissive towards protestors but the point is he learnt how to get the feel of the silent majority and did mostly what they wanted (cept Iraq 2003 oh and Workchoices 2005).
[BernardKeane Hey @TurnbullMalcolm I guess there’s no chance you could launch a new party promising to actually do something about climate change? ]
Ditto!!!
Uhhlman made reference to “cabinet sources” leaking the goss about Rudd and the NSC.
Wonder who they are and what their agenda is – are they determined to really punish Rudd by making sure he never gets a front bench position ever again. Do they really hate him that much?
“citizens’ assembly” = Medicare Gold
[“citizens’ assembly” = Medicare Gold]
As I said, watch the primary vote dive.
and climate change Glen (if the polling is to be believed).
On that issue, i think Labor has been badly shaken by the work done of those who dont think climate change is an issue. 2009 was a constant battle between the yes and no camps. we had tours by the “lord” and then the email scandal (which has now been shown to be nothing of any substance, and where apologies have been issued by some newspapers .. but not in oz of course…).
i’m not surprised the “mandate” they thought they secured in 2007 needed to reinforced and re-sought. and then there is the issue of mining, energy and the unions… its all rather messy. and it appears JG is trying to have a bob each way with this policy.
blue-green. who will those votes go to?
If Keane has the snits it must be a good policy. 😉
I don’t find that Kingston poll “unbelievable” at all, although obviously it could be at the upper end of the poll’s MoE. Rishworth is a very capable member and is getting a sophomore bounce on top of the obvious pro-Gillard swing in Adelaide. My SA sources agree there is a swing to Labor in SA. This makes Sturt (Lib 0.9%) very interesting.
I agree with Greg Hunt, the citizen forum thing is stupid. More talk means less action.
middle man@126. Yes, JG is trying to have a bob each way.
good point Vic. you’d have to think Greens, and then back via preferences.
Labor take the middle slice, Greens the left and hand it back via preferences, and the Libs can be left with the naysayers.
Malcolm Turnbull’s
All For Australia Party.
Trioli is the last person to be talking about looks…
Henry 123
Rudd was in the news yesterday with respect to the UN position on climate, so they just want to counteract that story with a negative one. Just noise.
ABC/NEWS 24 trying to make ALP look bad.
Come on denyers left unchecked on one side feral greens explicitly vowing to destroy our jobs with reckless abandon on the other and you are surprised the community consensus disappeared
I believe that if Rudd went to a DD, the Labor govt. would have been defeated. The momentum at the time was no longer for an ETS, and the Labor Govt knew it. As long as Abbott is opposition leader, the govt. can’t proceed as promised.
[Can I coin a new term? “Catch-24??]
ABC Catch-24
Brilliant
Well done BB – that’s what they’ll be referred to by me from here to the election.
[My SA sources agree there is a swing to Labor in SA. This makes Sturt (Lib 0.9%) very interesting.]
Oh please, please, please let Labor take Sturt!
Abc 24 is trying to make sky and nooks look good and scoring strongly early on
In swapping preferences with the greens the Labor party pretty much gave the greens the balance of power in the senate. JG just made sure they get a pretty solid vote.
middle man that is why a deal with the greens for preferences was done.
fredn. you read my mind.
[destroy our jobs with reckless abandon on the other and you are surprised the community consensus disappeared]
Community consensus hasn\’t disapeared. 65 – 75% of people want a price on carbon.
Gillard is just going to waste the first year of the next term with more talk, when more than likely the new opposition leader will support a carbon price.
[he learnt how to get the feel of the silent majority and did mostly what they wanted (cept Iraq 2003 oh and Workchoices 2005).]
Maybe “cept” also education
and health,
probably indigenous affairs too
infrastructure and spending
taxation and interest rates
telecommunication and broadband
and multiculturalism
otherwise he had his finger on the pulse.
WeWantPaul. I was not surprised at all. It was a pretty ferocious period for Climate Change as an issue. There is alot of very extreme views from both sides. The general public (me included!) find it difficult to stay committed as the science is very complex, and the scenarios given by left and right aren’t at all palatable.
I take my cues from which people, industry, or think tanks are pushing which agenda.
Its not my fault if big business has a history of complete self-interest. And to be honest, when the function of a publicly listed company is to “maximise shareholder value” (and we can probably add, “in the short term”) is not improper for them to do so. That is why we have goverments, who we would hope are doing the long term planning.
What happened last time the ALP obfuscated on the ETS.
Game over Mr Rudd. Primary dived and some of the prefs shifted to the Libs. The ALP must really want to win an election on 37% primary.
Complete this phrase. The ALP stand for…
Greentard. For Labor to go into the election with a policy for a carbon tax, Abbott will make it a GBNT and Labor will be crunched.
Psephos: If Poodle loses Sturt, that’d make my election night party even sweeter. 🙂