It’s on: August 21

The Prime Minister has surprised nobody by confirming this morning that Australia has entered its first winter election campaign since 1987. The final remaining question – whether the date would be August 21 or 28 – has been resolved in favour of the former, meaning the issue of the writs and consequent closure of enrolments will occur on Monday, to Labor’s disadvantage (John Howard strikes from the grave). Psephos in comments identifies an auspicious historical precedent on this date for Labor. Appropriately, Antony Green’s election guide has opened for business this morning, and an impressive effort from Ben Raue at The Tally Room has been going for a while. My own effort will follow over the coming week.

Some recent happenings on the candidate selection front:

• Fairfax reports there have been talks between Tony Abbott and Mal Brough about the latter returning to politics, with Brough indicating he would be interested in his home electorate of Fisher on the Sunshine Coast. The seat is held by underachieving long-term member Peter Slipper, who denies having been tapped on the shoulder.

• Another Liberal National Party candidate has bitten the dust, this time in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith. Emma Chalmers of The Courier-Mail reports a belief in the LNP camp that Rudd might quit after all led it to dump John Humphreys, an economist and one-time principal of the libertarian Liberal Democratic Party, so it could lock in a higher profile candidate with the potential to win the seat. The report goes so far as to nominate potential successors to Rudd: “Brisbane City Council Labor leader Shayne Sutton, lawyer Russell Thirgood and former state party treasurer Damian Power, who are all from Mr Rudd’s faction”.

• AAP reports Belinda Neal is refusing to say whether she will contest her seat of Robertson as an independent. Speculation has been boosted by the fact that she made the effort to advertise for a vacant media officer position on the weekend.

• The Liberals finally got around to choosing a candidate for the famously crucial western Sydney seat of Lindsay on Monday, with 33-year-old marketing manager Fiona Scott winning the preselection vote over 55-year-old school teacher Margaret Grand by 31 votes to seven. The Daily Telegraph reports Scott recommended herself to the party as she was “a safe candidate“ who “wouldn’t get in the way” of a backlash against the government on asylum seekers.

• The Liberals will today preselect candidates for other Sydney seats including winnable Greenway, which according to the Blacktown Sun looms as a contest between “Jayme Diaz, 34, and small business operator Venus Priest, 40”.

• Labor’s member for the highly endangered Queensland seat of Flynn, Chris Trevor, has confirmed he will contest the election after suggestions he was sufficiently alienated by Kevin Rudd’s demise to call it a day. Trevor took the opportunity of his announcement to condemn the “disgraceful” manner of Rudd’s treatment by “various factional bosses”.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian says Julia Gillard was prompted to challenge for the leadership by “polling in marginal seats in western Sydney and Queensland that showed she and the Liberal leader were ahead of the then prime minister in the key Labor-held seat of Lindsay in Sydney’s west and she was only six percentage points behind in Rudd’s home state of Queensland as preferred Labor leader”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

668 comments on “It’s on: August 21”

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  1. my say, a choir of sorts singing “stand up for real action” like a late night infomercial but somehow worse than what I just described.

  2. my say

    So my dog could go into a bar in Amsterdam? He’s microchipped. 🙂 Mind you some of the bars I’ve visited in Amsterdam, I stepped straight out again!

  3. In a five week campaign, only two count – the first and the last. The rest is just noise. The punters are tuned in now, but footy will take over by the end of next week. Around Aug 16/17 they’ll focus on whose going to get their vote. Gillard has started well – although its too early to make any real judgement about how she’ll campaign. Abbott has been OK – but the Lib advertising is junk to this point. Gillard can’t afford missteps in the first week – the ABC and Rupert would go in for the kill. Abbott can get away with a blunder or two – because,that’s him writ large.

  5. I reckon there will be lots of ALP Julia ads moving forward. Plus lots of non Julia ads attacking the Tone.

    The ratio will differ depending on the area.

    Tone will find it hard to be positive in his advertising.

  7. [did you know that in holland you can be micro chiped to go in to certain bars and clubs

    then you dont have to worry about your credit card true story.]

    Both my parents were dutch so I obviously channelled the idea sublminally.

    People bend over backwards to identify themselves when they want to borrow money. I reckon it would steamline life so much. Tax returns. Scan, money in bank. Buying something — scan, paid. No having to apply, reapply, hassle around.

    Lost people can be found. You win the lottery — scan — hey you’re the winner.

    Want to vote? Scan. You’re in.

  8. Excerpt from one of the liberal party supporters “Gillard doesn’t know what having a family is about – she can’t possibly know the trials many parents go through.” probably what the mad monk will try next

  9. Excerpt from one of the liberal party supporters “Gillard doesn’t know what having a family is about – she can’t possibly know the trials many parents go through.” probably what the mad monk will try next

  10. From the WA Libs – donn’t they realise we were getting Gillard’s Presser Live into WA.

    LiberalsWA LiberalsWA

    Gillard’s opening line “good afternoon Australians one and all” at 10am in WA – Julia Gillard and Labor not good for WA #ausvotes about 5 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone Retweeted by WilliamBowe and 1 other

  11. [Tone sounds a tad desperate in his ad]

    I agree with that. There’s something slightly strange about it – like it should be work shopped to gatherings of rusted on Libs, not to the general population. .

  12. Let’s not forget that Phoney will have News Ltd, the ABC and commercial talkback radio all propping him up and cheering for him – I wouldn’t underestimate that sort of advantage. 😉

  14. Whether Oakes had a real source or not, it’s pretty clear that his “breakthrough” question and subsequent over-hype by the media (mainly Channel 9, let’s face it) is for the 9 News ads pumping up Oakes as the best political journo ever. There are two seperate ads running now with footage from the Press Club, telling us to watch 9 News for the best in the business.

  15. [Abbott can get away with a blunder or two – because,that’s him writ large.]
    Not now he won’t. There is nowhere to hide.

  19. [Darn. There is a suggestion that the ad is for the Liberals, rather than the general public.]

    Not many TV ads run 46 seconds, it would send traffic bonkers. 🙂

  20. Gary 565

    He got away with a blatant blunder today – every major media outlet is reporting that Abbott has now “taken workplace relations off the agenda” by backing down on Workchoices. Not a single mention that he has clearly stated “for the first 3 years, atleast”. He got away with it.

  22. Allen Moyes
    [Mind you some of the bars I’ve visited in Amsterdam, I stepped straight out again!]
    Reminds me of a dinner I took a Japanese client to in Amsterdam. A beautiful early summer evening. Had a great dinner. Stepped out of the restaurant. During the course of our meal, the neighbourhood had been transformed, full of basically naked men.

    The look on my Japanese client’s face was priceless 😀

  24. [Gillard’s opening line “good afternoon Australians one and all” at 10am in WA – Julia Gillard and Labor not good for WA #ausvotes about 5 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone Retweeted by WilliamBowe and 1 other ]

    now thats over the top that sort of thing happens all over the u s there time zones are all over the place
    during in daylight saving and until this year we had it for three weeks without others

    thats life australia s is a big country with grown up people that understand we are not all on the same time zone.

  25. [The ratio will differ depending on the area.]

    I wrote to her and Kev and a couple of others (while Kev was still PM) saying the ads needed three positives, then ask “what would Abbott do?” Leaving the question open for uncertainty plays on voters minds.

  27. [Laurie Oakes just said the coalition needs to win 17 seats. That’s not right is it?]

    It is if you count notional seats on the new boundaries.

  28. [It is about 17 MORE seats they need but them winning only 17 would be nice]

    Yes I know that Tom. I’m questioning why they have to win 17 more.

  29. [Excerpt from one of the liberal party supporters “Gillard doesn’t know what having a family is about – she can’t possibly know the trials many parents go through.” probably what the mad monk will try next]

    did he say that or a liberal person only was it an add

    my daughter who is single tells me that at this point in time australia has more single woman than ever before so another 100th woman lost if he says that one

  30. [off to watch 7 news for the first time in a long time]

    Please, everyone report back on news coverages — am watching le Tour highlights (courtesy of other half) and will miss the opening salvos.

  34. [He got away with a blatant blunder today – every major media outlet is reporting that Abbott has now “taken workplace relations off the agenda” by backing down on Workchoices. Not a single mention that he has clearly stated “for the first 3 years, atleast”. He got away with it.]
    Oakes just mentioned that Abetz has contradicted Tone on Workchoices. During an election campaign stuff ups by both sides are highlighted.

  35. [Abbott has now “taken workplace relations off the agenda” by backing down on Workchoices. Not a single mention that he has clearly stated “for the first 3 years, atleast”. He got away with it.]

    And don’t forget Abetz said they’ll tweak, only a couple of hours later.

  39. [So my dog could go into a bar in Amsterdam? He’s microchipped. Mind you some of the bars I’ve visited in Amsterdam, I stepped straight out again’]

    yes now we could try that if we could get them through customs, !

  42. [Nice to see you’re on here.]

    You too

    Quite a good site, can get gardening tips, recipes, diagnosis on various aches and pains, ongoing sports updates, info on the lifestyles of dolphins and the occasional political discussion.

  43. Julia has worked out how to get her slogan advertised. Say it often then the journalists such as Laurie repeat it for her and show her saying it a number of times. Sweet.

  45. Castle @ 592

    That’s why I like it! Mind you I think the political discussion posts are going to get a bit more preference for the next few weeks. And dolphin lifestyle is very important – I have a soft spot for dolphins!

  48. Well oakes is proably going on the news poll if the polls get better why would not the swing be needed more.

    he is proably talking about how we ended up in 2007

    i really cannot see people who voted away work choices wanting it back
    labor has to realy go after this one but i think the actu would be better and i am sue they will proably the last three weeks.

  49. Gillard interview with Chris Bath 7 Sydney: extremely impressive

    Flicked over to 9, Abbott interview the whole thing was him being negative, I am not exaggerating, literally not a single positive reason was given why he should be pm.

  50. [Reminds me of a dinner I took a Japanese client to in Amsterdam.]

    me being me i said to oh what is that odd smell in this coffee shop rolled eyes
    said well may be we will go a little further up town.
    i dont think he had noticed till i said.
    still did not get it till i came home and the kids laughed at me. O well i am an innocent girl

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