It’s on: August 21

The Prime Minister has surprised nobody by confirming this morning that Australia has entered its first winter election campaign since 1987. The final remaining question – whether the date would be August 21 or 28 – has been resolved in favour of the former, meaning the issue of the writs and consequent closure of enrolments will occur on Monday, to Labor’s disadvantage (John Howard strikes from the grave). Psephos in comments identifies an auspicious historical precedent on this date for Labor. Appropriately, Antony Green’s election guide has opened for business this morning, and an impressive effort from Ben Raue at The Tally Room has been going for a while. My own effort will follow over the coming week.

Some recent happenings on the candidate selection front:

• Fairfax reports there have been talks between Tony Abbott and Mal Brough about the latter returning to politics, with Brough indicating he would be interested in his home electorate of Fisher on the Sunshine Coast. The seat is held by underachieving long-term member Peter Slipper, who denies having been tapped on the shoulder.

• Another Liberal National Party candidate has bitten the dust, this time in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith. Emma Chalmers of The Courier-Mail reports a belief in the LNP camp that Rudd might quit after all led it to dump John Humphreys, an economist and one-time principal of the libertarian Liberal Democratic Party, so it could lock in a higher profile candidate with the potential to win the seat. The report goes so far as to nominate potential successors to Rudd: “Brisbane City Council Labor leader Shayne Sutton, lawyer Russell Thirgood and former state party treasurer Damian Power, who are all from Mr Rudd’s faction”.

• AAP reports Belinda Neal is refusing to say whether she will contest her seat of Robertson as an independent. Speculation has been boosted by the fact that she made the effort to advertise for a vacant media officer position on the weekend.

• The Liberals finally got around to choosing a candidate for the famously crucial western Sydney seat of Lindsay on Monday, with 33-year-old marketing manager Fiona Scott winning the preselection vote over 55-year-old school teacher Margaret Grand by 31 votes to seven. The Daily Telegraph reports Scott recommended herself to the party as she was “a safe candidate“ who “wouldn’t get in the way” of a backlash against the government on asylum seekers.

• The Liberals will today preselect candidates for other Sydney seats including winnable Greenway, which according to the Blacktown Sun looms as a contest between “Jayme Diaz, 34, and small business operator Venus Priest, 40”.

• Labor’s member for the highly endangered Queensland seat of Flynn, Chris Trevor, has confirmed he will contest the election after suggestions he was sufficiently alienated by Kevin Rudd’s demise to call it a day. Trevor took the opportunity of his announcement to condemn the “disgraceful” manner of Rudd’s treatment by “various factional bosses”.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian says Julia Gillard was prompted to challenge for the leadership by “polling in marginal seats in western Sydney and Queensland that showed she and the Liberal leader were ahead of the then prime minister in the key Labor-held seat of Lindsay in Sydney’s west and she was only six percentage points behind in Rudd’s home state of Queensland as preferred Labor leader”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

668 comments on “It’s on: August 21”

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  4. Leaving the writs open until only Monday night shows the reds are scared of the future. Australia’s youth see through this laughing liar.

  5. Ah, White suit, white comisole, white earrings and white string of pearls.

    Mother Gillard comes to me, speaking words of wisdom, let it be, let it be.

  10. [Ah, White suit, white comisole, white earrings and white string of pearls.

    Mother Gillard comes to me, speaking words of wisdom, let it be, let it be.]

    In the previous thread, I suggested it was a visual allusion to her being the “white hat” of the election 😉

  11. [Leaving the writs open until only Monday night shows the reds are scared of the future.]

    Leavint the writs open until only Monday shows the election will be on August 21. It’s the latest they can be issued for an election on that date.

  12. GO JULIA our lady beautiful prime minister.

    and she is beautiful isn’t she the smile and the radiance, with out getting religious here but just a little, you know i think this is her calling in life.
    It was mapped out long before she was born, her parent where meant to come to australia.

    They say we all have a reason for being, this is her destiny

    Love you Jules.

  13. Gillard: “I believe that we’ve seen all the signs of it so far…”

    (That it will be a close, hard fought election campaign, that is.)

    Didn’t mention that the ‘signs’ are the antics of the poisonous, dishonest MSM…

  14. Ah, White suit, white comisole, white earrings and white string of pearls.

    [Mother Gillard comes to me, speaking words of wisdom, let it be, let it be]

    link to song finns
    i have the music to that will go and play the panio to my self.

  18. Luckly for the nowhere to be seen National Broadband network none of the non existent school computers are taking up any bandwidth.
    The reds lie so sweetlty.

  19. Britney not happy with the level of detail. Its an announcement not a campaign launch. Can see how Sly and the MSM will spin this

  20. [BK

    Here is a challenge for you: keep count of them in Abbott’s presser!]
    Laocoon
    I would need the cloud chamber from the Hadron Collider to register them all.

  22. Excellent performance. Confident. Real. Finessed the questions as required.

    Positive.

    Plus, not a single ‘obviously’. Fast learner, too.

    Sky dancing around Work Choices now.

  23. [Kersebleptes
    Posted Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 12:36 pm | Permalink
    Gillard: “I believe that we’ve seen all the signs of it so far…]

    i am wondering if the people, well a lot will be, in ore and delight of having a female pm they will not really listen to the press.

    they may be just sick of them already.”

    i feel so proud at this moment does any one else feel the positive energy

  24. I’ll make a bold prediction: Labor’s campaign slogan will be “Moving forward together.”

    Bids are open for Abbott’s slogan. My choice is “Ahh, ahh, ahh, but, but Kerry…”

  26. [Blesspauline&andrew]

    The VIs are coming out of the woodwork… is Edward St John’s third coming? Someone do an IP check! 😉

  27. [I’ll make a bold prediction: Labor’s campaign slogan will be “Moving forward together.”]

    Mirror the NZ Labour winning campaign slogan “Forward. Together”

  30. William Bowe
    re’ Leavint the writs open until only Monday shows the election will be on August 21. It’s the latest they can be issued for an election on that date.’
    Well the 21st rather than the 28th shows the reds are frightened of Australia’s youth, who will not follow this laughing siren into the rocks.

  33. ltep@7

    Belinda Neal, Independent MP for Robertson. Sounds good to me.

    Thankfully her name is in every freezer in Robertson. Although I worry sometimes about the similarity in names Neil – O’Neill. That could fool a stupid person.

  35. Yes Boer. Must switch Sky off now despite Kieran now praising Gillard’s strong performance.

    Very smart to focus on Abbott’s cuts

  38. [Luckly for the nowhere to be seen National Broadband network none of the non existent school computers are taking up any bandwidth.
    The reds lie so sweetlty.]

    Not sure exactly who you are but it is by the by — you HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA!

    I have worked in schools — there are many computers — many more than anything the Libs have ever provided.

    The NBN is necessary — my business is sweating on it because it’ll save so much time and steamline so many processes. I can imagine th same in health and every other aspect of life.

  40. [# Shorter Gillard: I believe in modernity – but not so much that it gets scary, but just enough to make Abbott look like a fossil 24 minutes ago via TweetDeck]
    From Poss.

    And make Abbott look like a fossil she will.

  42. [the reds]

    Sorry, dear, the Queensland Super 14 Rugby Union team are not running any candidates for this election as far as I know!

  45. [ like Julia’s parting shot re: NBN and the young. She hit the nail on the head there!]

    i have been saying this to every young person i know and they look at you in disbelief

  46. BK
    re
    Ashley Gillam bird on SkyNews seems to be auditioning for a standard blonde opinioniste position on FoxNews US
    I thought you reds though Honest Tony Abbott was the sexist ??

  47. Psephos@24

    I’ll make a bold prediction: Labor’s campaign slogan will be “Moving forward together.”

    What about: “Not Retreating; Just Advancing Together In a Different Direction”

  50. My Say

    I think you have really overdone the religious fervour!! Visions of Julia, choirs of Angels, etc. Have you converted you rosary beads so that there is one bead for each day until the election?

    btw, did you have mushrooms on toast for breakfast ?

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